12 WAYS TO BEAT YOUR BOOKIE Proven Money-Management Programs For the Professional Sports Bettor
By TONY STOFFO with NELSON WILLIAMS
Formally entitled Money Management for the Year Round Professional Sports Handicapper
Copyright 2003, Tony Stoffo and Nelson Williams, All rights reserved
ABOUT THE AUTHORS Tony Stoffo, the former manager of the race and sportsbook at the old Desert Inn Casino in Las Vegas, has made his living in the sports gambling industry for 30 years. Starting as a teenager, he ran bets for a local bookmaker on Wall Street for 10 years before moving to Florida to work full-time in the thoroughbred horseracing industry. In 1989, he started as a sportsbook writer in Las Vegas casinos, working his way up to manager at the Desert Inn, one of the city’s top 10 sportsbooks. Tony still lives in Las Vegas, where over the last several years he has earned the reputation as one of the best sports handicappers in the country, making his exclusive picks available to gamblers via the Internet at www.vegasinsider.com. He can be reached at
[email protected]. Nelson Williams, who splits his time between New York City and Los Angeles, is a writer and editor who has covered sports and other topics for newspapers and magazines for 20 years. He can be reached at
[email protected]. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
If it weren’t for Sonny Reizner, my former boss at the Rio and Desert Inn sportsbooks in Las Vegas, you wouldn’t be reading this book today. Sonny, who ran the Hole in the Wall Sportsbook at the old Castaways Casino from 1976 to 1988 and developed the city's first NFL handicapping contest, took me under his wing at the Rio, teaching me the ins and outs of the gambling business. The sharpest bettor I have ever met, Sonny showed me many of the strategies that I incorporate in my 12 Money-Management Programs, and his influence continues to color every pick I make as a professional handicapper. -- Tony Stoffo, 2003 I would also like to thank Howard Schwartz from the Gambler’s Book Shop here in Las Vegas. Howard took time out of his busy schedule to share some of his own ideas how to make my book even better and gave me the encouragement to go forward with this project. -- Tony Stoffo, 2003 The Gamblers Book Shop is located at: 630 South 11th Street Las Vegas, NV 89101 1-800-522-1777 http://www.gamblersbook.com
DISCLAIMER All information in this book is meant for professional gamblers betting in states and/or venues where it is legal to do so. The authors and publishers do not condone illegal gambling, strongly urge readers to determine the legality of gambling in their locale or via the Internet before betting, and accept no liability for those who break local, state, federal or international laws by gambling illegally. As is stressed throughout this book, all gamblers are encouraged to bet legally, smartly and conservatively, with only a small portion of
their disposable income, risking only what they can afford to lose. Those who feel that they may have a gambling problem are urged to cease betting immediately and contact their state’s chapter of Gambler’s Anonymous as the first step in seeking help.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
5
1.
Re-Learning How to Bet
8
2.
Setting and Building Your Bankroll
13
3.
Program #1: The 2-6 Straight Bet System
23
4.
Program #2: The 2-3 Straight Bet System
37
5.
Program #3: The 4-Level Accumulation System
50
6.
Program #4: The 2-16 Consecutive Wins System
63
7.
Program #5: The 2-18 Consecutive Wins System
71
8.
Program #6: The Straight + Saver System
80
9.
Program #7: The Baseball Streaks System
91
10.
Program #8: The Baseball Underdog System
104
11.
Program #9: The 1-8 Parlay System
117
12.
Program #10: The 0% Risk System
126
13.
Superstitious, Anyone?
135
14.
Program #11: The Set Monthly-Income System (Straight Bet Version)
136
15.
Program #12: The Set Monthly-Income System (Parlay Version)
151
16.
Sport by Sport Betting Strategies
167
17.
The Bet You Should Never Make
175
18.
Receiving Tony Stoffo’s Expert Picks
178
19.
Glossary of Tony Stoffo’s Gambling Terms
183
20.
Program Charts
187
INTRODUCTION
Winners and Losers It’s a funny thing about gamblers. We all like to think it’s the other guy, not us, who is helping casinos and sports books make billions of dollars a year. In reality, 98 out of every 100 gamblers laying bets are guaranteed to lose money over the long term.
During the time I spent as the Manager of the Race and Sportsbook at the Desert Inn Casino in Las Vegas, I witnessed daily the misguided betting habits of the 98% of gamblers who helped pay for the city’s lavish casinos and hotels. I also studied and befriended the 2% who were making real money over the long haul. So what separated the countless “losers” from the lucky few “winners”? Of the tens of thousands of sports gamblers I watched, the “losers” invariably fell into one of several categories. The first type of loser (and perhaps the most common) was the high-roller from out of town who bet $1,000 or more on every game, no matter what the situation, either because he had it to lose, liked showing off for his buddies or lady friend, or was hooked on the rush of gambling. I met perhaps the most memorable high-roller of my career on Super Bowl Sunday in 1996. The casino manager brought him over to me moments before kickoff, informing me that the gentleman wanted to lay $200,000 on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were 13-point underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys. Our betting limit for the big game was $25,000, but the high-roller said the Hilton down the Strip was willing to take his bet if I wasn’t, so I took his action. Dallas won the game 27-17, meaning Pittsburgh covered, so he won the bet at 11-10 odds and pocketed $181,818.18. But we at the Desert Inn sportsbook were ultimately the winners. This high-roller was so “high” over his win that he went on to drop $1.5 million at the blackjack tables later that night. Like this gentleman, most high-rollers feed off the rush and buzz of gambling -- so much so that winning is almost an afterthought. Even if they pick a big winner, they’re often quick to squander their earnings within hours of cashing in. Of the other types of “losers,” there was the $100-a-unit everyday bettor who chased losses by upping his plays to $250 or even $500 or more in a doomed game of catch-up. Then there were the regulars and out-of-towners alike who set their bet amounts erratically on whims, with no rhyme or reason, either underplaying great values, overplaying mediocre picks on ill-conceived hunches, or throwing away their mortgage money on fly-by-night handicappers’ so-called “locks.” Meanwhile, the whopping 2% of consistent “winners” all fell into one single category. Every one used money-management strategies that I witnessed, analyzed, modified and verified for years before compiling them in this one invaluable book for serious sports gamblers like you.
Join the Exclusive Winners Club In the pages to follow, I’ll explain in easy-to-understand language how your bad betting habits have kept you from winning consistently. I’ll also outline in simple detail my 12 Money-Management Programs, which will correct those bad habits and can help turn even those below-average bettors among you into consistent winners. My 12 Money-Management Programs are all based on mathematical certainties, but you won’t need a Ph.D. or a computer to figure them out. In fact, they’re so simple that after a few days, you'll be using them automatically in your daily betting, without a second thought. But they do require discipline -- the discipline to bet only amounts dictated by your previous bets’ outcomes, and the discipline to track every single bet you make, win or lose. Don’t worry, I’ll provide you with all the information you’ll need to help determine how much of your Bankroll to set aside for each bet, as well as with the necessary Charts to track your winnings. The only thing left to decide will be which teams to bet on. Fortunately for you, my Programs even take much of the risk out of that. Skeptical? Don’t be. Before we go any further, I’m going to let you in on the dirty little secret that bookmakers never want you to find out: You don’t have to pick 53% or more winners in order to make a profit, as is commonly believed. By setting your bet amounts according to my Programs, you can win as few as 26% of your straight bets and 12% of your 2-team parlays and still walk away with hundreds or even thousands of dollars or more in profit every week. So there’s no pressure to pick winners more than half the time, which even professional handicappers and gamblers like me, who make their entire livings by betting, have a tough time accomplishing.
The Most Important Bet You’ve Ever Made By buying this easy-to-understand insider’s guide to sports gambling, you’ve made the best investment you possible could as a bettor. Read it through once, making note of which of my 12 Money-Management Programs make the most sense for you. Check out the “test results” I’ve included that show actual examples of how you can pick just 8 winners out of 30 games in one monthly Program and still net hundreds or thousands of dollars of profits.
Then, when you’re ready, starting turning your own disposable income into regular winnings. In a few days, you’ll be astounded that you ever set your bet amounts off the top of your head and not according to one of my 12 Money-Management Programs. As you get comfortable with my programs and gain the confidence that comes with making consistent money, make sure to implement the Sport by Sport Betting Strategies I include in Chapter 16, which can help you earn up to $50,000 or more annually from your sports gambling. Or use Program #10, which releases for the first time my 0% Risk System -- picked up from some “wise guys” from New York -which literally guarantees you’ll come away from any straight moneyline bet with either a win or a push, no matter which team wins. Making guaranteed profits -- or, better yet, a living -- from gambling on sports may sound too good to be true, but I’ll prove to you that it’s possible time and again with concise instructions and numerous examples in the pages to follow. I’ll also give you inside strategies on how to build your Bankroll from month to month and year to year, so you can afford to bet -- and win -- more and more as time goes by. Now that you’re ready to put losing behind you, let’s get started managing your bets, beating your bookies and building your Bankrolls.
Tony Stoffo
Chapter 1
RE-LEARNING HOW TO BET
Take 3 Simple Steps to Betting Success As I noted in the Introduction, gamblers making straight bets must hit 53% winners just to make a profit. This in and of itself is hard enough for the average bettor -- but the task is made even more difficult when you vary your bet amounts on whims and hunches. The average win on a straight bet nets a one-time 90.9% return on your wager, meaning you must lay $11 to win $10. On the other hand, every single winning wager using most of my 12 Money-Management Programs not only builds your Bankroll by this same ratio but also recoups either a portion or all of your recent losses. In fact, when betting with one of my Programs, losing any single bet isn’t a cause for worry like it would be if you laid a substantial bet on a game because you had a “gut feeling” or even paid for a professional handicapper’s expert picks.
Why? Because regular losses are “expected” and built into my Programs. So you know there will inevitably be another win coming along that will earn back your losses, plus a little extra. (I’ll even show you how to incorporate the money you pay handicappers into the System, so your winnings pay for expert picks such as mine many times over.) My 12 Money-Management Programs, which I learned from gambling professionals who make their entire living by betting on sports, are based on proven mathematical certainties that virtually guarantee you’ll make money by:
1) Breaking your Bankroll into portions to help prevent losing the entire amount, even during losing streaks (see Chapter 2, “Setting and Building Your Bankroll,” for details). 2) Determining your current bet amounts according to the results of previous wagers, not hunches or whims (see each Program chapter for a full explanation). 3) Requiring you to keep disciplined track of all bets and profits, as well as any money paid to handicappers for their expert picks (use the handy Chart I’ve provided with each Program for this precise purpose).
Break 3 Common Bad Betting Habits To accomplish the 3 simple things above and become part of the 2% of bettors who make consistent money betting on sporting events, you’ll need to break 3 of the bad habits that keep the other 98% of gamblers from winning.
1) Stop betting more than a small portion of your total Bankroll on any single play. 2) Stop betting an arbitrary number of games per day and setting your individual bet amounts by some ill-conceived “unit” system. 3) Stop betting without keeping strict track of all your wins, loses and profits.
You’ve probably noticed that by achieving the 3 “dos” above you’ll be ensuring that you’re not guilty of the 3 “don’ts” that follow.
Pick Your Programs Before Your Favorites Before you even think about which teams to place your bet on -- or your “favorites” -- decide which of my 12 Money-Management Programs best fit your gambling tastes and situation. You’ll want to read closely the chapter devoted to each Program, but here’s a quick overview: Program #1, known as The 2-6 Straight Bet System, is a favorite because it requires you to hit just 33% -- or about 2 of 6 -- of your wagers to turn a profit. Similarly, Program #2, The 2-3 Straight Bet System, is popular since you can win substantial profits by picking just 2 winners among any 3 wagers in a Series of up to 8 bets. Conservative gamblers who are looking to bet modest amounts daily with little if any long-term risk will undoubtedly like Program #3, The 4-Level Accumulation System, which allows you to grind out steady profits over months and even years while getting lots of “action” every day. Programs #4 and #5, The 2-16 and 2-18 Consecutive Wins Systems, allow you to make money when you hit just 2 consecutive winners in any Series of up to 16 or 18 bets. Program #6, The Straight + Saver System, is for “action” players who like to bet 3 strong plays daily but who also want to hedge by putting money on an opposite parlay to cover yourself for those rare, disappointing 0-3 days. While most of my programs work across all sports, Programs #7 and #8, The Baseball Streaks and The Baseball Underdog Systems, are tailored to betting exclusively on America’s Pastime, which lasts six months of the year and provides some of the best values for gamblers. Those of you who enjoy the increased payoffs of parlays will find it remarkable that you must hit just 1 of 8 winners (for a winning percentage of only .125) to make a profit using Program #9, The 1-8 Parlay System.
For those high-rollers who have substantial disposable income, Program #10, The 0% Risk System, is a foolproof way to take advantage of differing odds at various sportsbooks to guarantee yourself a profit or push no matter who wins. Programs #11 and #12, the Straight Bet and the Parlay Versions of The Set Monthly-Income System, teach you how to set a monthly gambling “salary” for yourself by laying either straight or 2-team parlay wagers. By picking a minimum of 12% parlay winners or 26% straight-bet winners, you can “guarantee” yourself a monthly income of $400, $1,000 or even $5,000 or more.
Set and Build Your Bankroll Once you know which of my 12 Money-Management Programs you’ll be using to make gambling profits, you need to know how much money you have to wager with. I’ll explain it fully in Chapter 2, “Setting and Building Your Bankroll,” but basically it involves 3 easy steps:
1) Determining and putting aside a portion of your disposable income that you don’t need for life’s essentials like mortgage or rent, car payments, credit card bills, food and entertainment, etc., and using this Bankroll exclusively for betting. 2) Dividing your Bankroll into 4 parts and betting a calculated portion of this 25% of your Bankroll on every pick. 3) Taking all winning profits and putting them back into your Bankroll so you have more to bet -- and win -- with.
Of course, once you know what your total Bankroll is, you’ll need to determine how much to wager on each game.
Aim For Your Target Numbers Believe it or not, virtually all bettors are destined to lose before they even lay their bets -- because they make the mistake of spending 90% of their time deciding which teams to bet on and just 10% on how to bet them.
The key to my 12 Money-Management Programs is to drastically alter that ratio. Each of my Programs involves placing a “Series” of bets with predetermined wager amounts, which virtually ensures you’ll make money in the long run. Because your wager amounts are determined by the results of your previous plays, you may be playing slightly fewer picks each day than you have in the past if you are an “action” player. For example, you can play just 1 Series in 1 Program, betting just 1 game a day, or 1 early and 1 late game per Sunday during NFL season. Or those of you who desire more action -- and have the Bankroll to afford it -- may want to mix and match by playing several Series in 1 or more Programs simultaneously. For instance, you may choose to bet on 1 game each day with a 2-6 Straight Bet System Series, 1 game with a 2-9 Consecutive Wins System Series and 2 more games via a 2-team parlay in a 1-8 Parlay System Series. Whatever your selection of Programs and the number of Series played in each, before you even decide which games to bet on, you’ll know how much you’re going to wager, based on the previous play’s results. This does away with any guesswork regarding how much money or how many “units” to put on a particular game. Because mathematical formulas proven to earn profits over time are the basis of my 12 Money-Management Programs, you’ll have 1 or more “target” numbers to hit in each Series every day. We call these target numbers “Series Amounts,” since they’re the numbers that make up your Series. For example, if you’re running a total of 3 Series in 1 or more Programs, your Series Amounts for the day may be 48, 147 and 312, meaning your 3 Series require you to wager enough to win $48, $147 and $312, respectively. Hence, you’d put your best play of the day on your $312 Series, your next best on the $147 Series, and your third-strongest play on the $48 Series. It’s important to note that each of my 12 Money-Management Programs allows you as an individual bettor to select those that fit your budget and Bankroll, so they can be used by $25-a-day gamblers as easily as by $25,000-a-game gamblers. And you’re not required to run more than 1 Program or Series at a time, or even bet every day. You can start with just 1 Series based on 1 Program, and bet just once a day, or even skip days when you’re not comfortable making a play.
Chart Your Course and Keep on Track
With each of my Programs comes full instructions on not only how and what amount to bet -- again, based on your personal budget and Bankroll -- but a Chart to keep track of your wagers. It’s imperative that you fill out these Charts religiously, or you won’t know how much to bet, and the mathematical formulas they’re based on won’t work to “guarantee” your long-term winnings. You’ll want to take this book to your local copy store and make dozens of copies of all the Charts provided. I recommend you copy them onto 8.5 x 11-inch paper and keep them in a 3-ring binder for easy access and tracking. The enclosed Charts will not only help you calculate your daily Series Amounts -- or how much to bet -- they also aid you in tracking your long-term winnings. This will enable you to know when it’s time to increase your bets to a larger-wager Series, allowing you to increase your profits.
Take a Look at the Proof In addition to Charts to track your bets, I’ve included with each and every Program several examples of Series that prove you can pick just 12% winners on 2-team parlays and 26% winners on straight bets, and walk away with substantial profits. Since as a regular gambler you’ll also be interested in earning a regular monthly income from your wagers, you’ll probably want to incorporate Programs #11 and #12 into your gambling, so I’ve even included proof that these Programs do indeed bring regular winnings, week after week, month after month. This proof comes in the form of examples, which provide entire months of sample wins and losses at various winning percentages to show you that if you can hit a minimum number of bets, you are guaranteed to be a winning gambler over the long haul. So, let’s move on to Chapter 2, set our Bankrolls and begin making winning wagers.
Chapter 2
SETTING AND BUILDING YOUR BANKROLL
Don’t Spend It All in One Place (or on One Sunday) There’s no time like pro football season at a sportsbook. Because each team plays only 16 regular-season contests, every game is an event. You can feel the buildup during the week, culminating on Sunday, when there are usually 15 games on tap, oftentimes as many as 11 “early games” kicking off at once, at 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. When I was managing the sportsbook at the Desert Inn Casino, the first few Sundays of the NFL season were always standing room only. There was electricity in the air. The bets came fast and furious. Invariably, however, by Weeks 4, 5 and 6, the crowds had
thinned by 60%. And those who remained were playing more conservatively. Bettors who had been laying $500 a game were now agonizing over their wagers and risking just $100 a game. Needless to say, the football fans who disappeared altogether after the first few weeks had blown their entire Bankrolls. And practically the only money-management technique the last men standing were using was to bet less, but of course they were doing this only because they had less in their pockets. By neglecting to set a Bankroll or use a money-management strategy, both those groups had not only ruined their chances at making money over the long haul, but they’d sapped all the fun out of following the football season as fans and gamblers. Much like it is for the players on the field, gamblers know it’s no fun sitting on the sidelines, or playing catch-up for most of the season. To begin making consistent money as a regular gambler, you must first set your “Personal Betting Bankroll,” to ensure that the occasional serious losing streak won’t knock you entirely out of the game. Before you can determine your Personal Betting Bankroll, it’s a good idea to evaluate your personal finances as a whole.
Grin and ‘Bare’ Your Monthly Budget If you can honestly say you know, without having to check your personal records, exactly how much money you have left over each month after all your living expenses are paid, you are exactly the kind of person who will do wonderfully as a disciplined gambler. Congratulate yourself and move down to the next section, where you’ll set your Personal Betting Bankroll. However, if you have no idea how much money you have going out each month for all your personal bills, don’t be discouraged. You’ve got plenty of company. You’d be surprised how many people -- even extremely wealthy ones -- have never sat down and drawn up a personal budget. In a way, they’re like gamblers who use no money-management technique. They live week to week, paycheck to paycheck, spending as urges and whims come and go, content not to know the potentially scary truth of their financial situation as long as there is some money in the bank and room on their credit cards. Because my 12 Money-Management Programs are all based on financial discipline, let’s quickly determine your monthly budget so you’ll know how much of a beginning Bankroll you have to play with. It takes only about 15 minutes -- whether you’re one of the
middle-class masses or a multimillionaire -- and it can only help your personal and gambling life to know exactly where you stand financially. To complete your personal budget, fill in the Chart at the end of this chapter. Simply write in dollar amounts next to each of the monthly budget categories, making sure they’re all accurate monthly figures. For instance, if you spend $125 a week on groceries and dining out, make sure you put $500 in that category, assuming a 4-week month. Also, if you have expenses such as taxes or insurance that you pay quarterly or yearly, don’t forget to divide them by the number of months in the quarter or year, and then include them as well as monthly expenses, so you don’t come up short when those bills come due. Note that if any of your expenses are taken out of your paycheck before you receive it, don’t deduct them. We’re trying to determine your monthly “Total Disposable Income,” or what’s left of your paycheck after you pay all of life’s “little” essentials. When the Chart is filled out, you’ll be able to subtract your combined monthly expenses from your monthly income and be left with your Total Disposable Income.
Betting a Safe and Secure Bankroll Whether you’ve just outlined your personal budget for the first time or knew all along where all your dollars and cents were going each month, you’re now able to set your Personal Betting Bankroll. Take a look at your monthly Total Disposable Income, the amount left over after you’ve paid all the items on your personal budget -from the mortgage to the car payment to the kids’ college fund. Now take that dollar figure and cut it by 50%. If you have that dollar figure right now in your dresser drawer, your savings account or your wallet, whether it’s $200 or $20,000, you’ve established a good, safe amount for your beginning Personal Betting Bankroll.
1 month’s Total Disposable Income divided by 2 = your Personal Betting Bankroll.
What’s the remaining 50% for, you ask? The unexpected. The last thing you want to do is risk losing the money needed to take care of life’s little emergencies -- like car repairs and unexpected doctor’s bills -- because the Knicks end up losing to the Celtics. If you don’t have half a month’s Total Disposable Income available right now to start betting with, divide it in half again, which should give you one week’s pay -- after all your personal expenses -- and make this number your Personal Betting Bankroll. That way, you can keep reading and be ready to bet safely and responsibly after you cash your next paycheck and pay all your bills, using just 25% of your Total Disposable Income.
Saving for a Rainy Day at the Sportsbook Now that you’ve set your Personal Betting Bankroll, put it safely aside either at home or in a bank account (if you’re betting with your local neighborhood bookie), or in 1 or more reputable online sportsbook accounts (if you’re betting on the Web). As you’ve undoubtedly gathered by now, my entire approach toward helping you make money via sports betting is to have you gamble smartly, conservatively and according to my 12 Money-Management Programs, which utilize proven mathematical certainties to help steadily build your Bankroll. In keeping with this, I am going to have you take your Personal Betting Bankroll and divide it evenly into 4 equal “Betting Blocks.” For example, if you’re starting with a Personal Betting Bankroll of $1,600 (based on a portion of your Total Disposable Income), break it into 4 equal Betting Blocks of $400 each.
$1,600 Personal Betting Bankroll divided by 4 = Betting Blocks of $400 each.
Rather than risk your entire Bankroll right off the bat, you’ll begin putting a calculated portion of your $400 Betting Blocks on each bet. These bets are hereafter referred to as “Series Amounts,” since all my Programs provide preset “Series,” or a specific number of wagers, for you to make.
Divvying up your Personal Betting Bankroll into Betting Blocks from which you’ll set your Series and Series Amounts prevents you from ever losing everything during an unfortunate losing streak. Knowing that you have substantial “reserves” in your Bankroll, and that you must only win as few as 1 in 8 parlays and slightly better than 1 in 4 straight bets in a Series to make a profit with my 12 Money-Management Programs, you’ll bet calmly, with a clear head. Of course, just because I have selected $1,600 as a possible beginning Bankroll and $400 as the natural Betting Blocks for this Bankroll doesn’t mean you should automatically set your Bankroll and Betting Blocks at these amounts. Your budget may warrant a lower or higher Bankroll and Betting Blocks, which you should set according to the budget and monthly Total Disposable Income numbers you’ve determined for your own specific financial situation. For consistency in betting examples throughout this book, however, I always will be using $1,600 as a Personal Betting Bankroll and $400 as Betting Blocks. I’ll also be setting your betting “Series,” the preset number of wagers in any given System, and your “Series Amounts,” the dollar figure you’ll wager, precisely so that you’re “guaranteed” to make a profit and protect your Bankroll by picking a reasonable amount of winners.
Don’t Lose Sleep or Your Bankroll To show you why it’s so important to both set a reasonable Personal Betting Bankroll and to divide it up into 4 equal Betting Blocks, let’s take a peek ahead at Program #1, The 2-6 Straight Bet System. The 2-6 Straight Bet System requires that you win a minimum of just 2 wagers in every 6 bets made in a Series, and pre-calculates your “Series” of wagers at $11, $22, $44, $66, $88 and $132. In other words, your “Series Amounts,” or the dollar figure you will be wagering or attempting to win, will be
11-22-44-66-88-132.
Don’t be alarmed if this doesn’t make complete sense to you right now. It will next chapter, when I go into full detail about how Program #1, the 2-6 System, makes you steady profits if you win just 33% of your wagers. For the moment, however, I’m interested only in your understanding how dividing up your Personal Betting Bankroll into Betting Blocks prevents you from losing everything. Say, for example, you make 1 bet a day for 6 days utilizing Program #1 and have a horribly unlucky week, losing all 6 wagers. (Remember, your goal is to win at least 2 of every 6 bets.) By going 0-6, you lose a total of $363 -- but since you’ve set your Personal Betting Bankroll at $1,600 and your Betting Blocks at $400, you’ve still got more than 75% of your original Bankroll left to win your way out of the slump. It’s important to understand that, unlike stupidly “chasing your losses” with huge bets, my 12 Money-Management Programs use mathematical “Formulas” based on easy-to-hit minimum winning percentages to ensure that you steadily recoup your losses, and then some. Watch as Your Bankroll Builds Rather than merely “protecting” your Bankroll, my 12 Money-Management Programs have been designed to build on it steadily and consistently. Assuming you can hit 26% or more winners on straight bets or 12% or better on 2-team parlays, you’ll see your Bankroll growing in no time. Using the example of a $1,600 Personal Betting Bankroll above, when you have won enough to roll $400 in winnings back into your Bankroll, it will then be worth $2,000. At that point, you will divide it into 4 equal Betting Blocks of $500 each. This way, you can start wagering a little more on your plays. For example, The 2-6 Straight Bet System that began with a betting Series of
11-22-44-66-88-132
increases when your Betting Blocks move from $400 to $500 to a betting Series of
22-44-88-132-176-264,
which once again allows for substantial profits while risking relatively little, even if you go on the occasional 0-6 losing streak. I suggest that you take no money out of your Personal Betting Bankroll for the first year. That way, it increases substantially and you will be making big bets -- and big profits. Of course, there’s no reason you must raise the amount of your Betting Blocks or can’t “withdraw” profits from your Personal Betting Bankroll as it grows. You can reward yourself by dipping into some of your winnings, keeping your original Personal Betting Bankroll amount the same. Or, whenever you feel comfortable with my Programs, you can increase your Betting Blocks -- and your expected profits. If you do raise your Betting Blocks to $500 each and steadily make winning bets that double that amount, then your Personal Betting Bankroll will now be worth $2,500, and you can divide your 4 Betting Blocks into $625 each. At that point, you’ll likely want to increase your betting series as well to
44-88-176-264-352-528.
Just as you increase the amount of your Betting Blocks when you double your money, if you happen to lose an entire 6-bet Series, simply divide the resulting Personal Betting Bankroll total by 4 and set up a new Betting Block amount with new Series Amounts. For example, if you had a Betting Block of $625 and lost 6 consecutive bets, your Personal Betting Bankroll would then be $1,875 and you’d have 4 equal Betting Blocks of about $470 each. With that total, you would want to drop your Series back to
22-44-88-132-176-264.
Summing It All Up
Setting and building on your Personal Betting Bankroll is as easy as 1-2-3-4-5: 1) Determine your Personal Betting Bankroll, making sure that it is no more than 25% to 50% of a single month’s Total Disposable Income. 2) Divide your Personal Betting Bankroll into 4 equal Betting Blocks. 3) Bet just a portion of any Betting Block on any single wager, using Series Amounts dictated by my 12 Money-Management Programs and their Formulas. 4) Roll all your winnings back into your Personal Betting Bankroll, so it builds steadily. 5) Every month or so, evaluate your Personal Betting Bankroll, and increase your 4 Betting Blocks if you feel comfortable doing so.
Now that you’ve set your initial Personal Betting Bankroll and the dollar total of your 4 Betting Blocks, it’s time to become intimately acquainted with my 12 Money-Management Programs. Once you decide which of my 12 ways to beat your bookie you like the most, you can start making winning wagers, and build your Bankroll.
PERSONAL BUDGET (MONTHLY) MONTHLY INCOME Take-Home Pay (After Taxes)
$
All Other Income (Government, Family, Investments)
$
+ = ____________________________________________________________ A) TOTAL MONTHLY INCOME
$
MONTHLY EXPENSES Home Total Rent(s) and/or Mortgage(s)
$
Second Mortgage(s)
$
Property Taxes
$
Utility Bills (Electric, Gas, etc.)
$
Home Maintenance and Repairs (Gardening, etc.)
$
+ + + + + TVs and Computers (Cable, Satellite, DSL, etc.)
$ +
Telephones (Home and Cellulars)
$ +
Renter’s or Homeowner’s Insurance
$ =
____________________________________________________________ B) MONTHLY HOME SUBTOTAL
$
Health and Children Healthcare (Insurance, Doctor’s Visits, Medicines, etc.)
$ +
Childcare (Centers, Babysitters, Diapers, etc.)
$ =
____________________________________________________________ C) MONTHLY HEALTH & CHILDREN SUBTOTAL $ Schooling Tuitions (For Entire Family)
$
School Loan(s) Payments
$
+ = ____________________________________________________________ D) MONTHLY SCHOOLING SUBTOTAL
$
Car and Other Vehicles Vehicle Payments (All Loans and/or Leases)
$
+ Insurance Payments (For All Vehicles)
$
Fuel (Gas, Diesel, etc.)
$
Repairs/Service (Tires, Tune-ups, Oil Changes, etc.)
$
+ + + Public Transportation (Bus, Taxis, etc.)
$ =
____________________________________________________________ E) MONTHLY VEHICLES SUBTOTAL
$
Food Groceries
$
Dining Out
$
+ = ____________________________________________________________ F) MONTHLY FOOD SUBTOTAL
$
Entertainment and Incidentals Entertainment (Movies, Nightclubs, etc.)
$
Travel (Getaways and Vacations, etc.)
$
+ +
Publications (Papers, Magazines, Books)
$ +
Miscellaneous Spending Money
$ =
____________________________________________________________ G) MONTHLY ENTERTAINMENT SUBTOTAL
$
Financial Deposits to Accounts (Savings, Money Market, etc.)
$ +
Other Investments (Stocks, bonds, etc.)
$ +
Donations (Charitable, Religious, etc.)
$
Personal Loans (not previously listed)
$
*Credit Card Payments (Total of all cards)
$
+ + = ____________________________________________________________ H) MONTHLY FINANCIAL SUBTOTAL
$
Professional Legal Expenses
$ +
Accounting Expenses
$ =
____________________________________________________________ I) TOTAL PROFESSIONAL SUBTOTAL
$
Other Miscellaneous Expenses (Emergency Fund, etc.) $ ____________________________________________________________ J) MONTHLY MISCELLANEOUS SUBTOTAL $ DETERMINING YOUR TOTAL DISPOSABLE INCOME (MONTHLY) Now that you’ve calculated all your monthly income and expenses, it’s a matter of simple subtraction to determine your Total Disposable Income. Use the subtotals from above to subtract all your monthly expenses from your total monthly income.
A) TOTAL MONTHLY INCOME
$
B) MONTHLY HOME SUBTOTAL
$
C) MONTHLY HEALTH/CHILDREN SUBTOTAL
$
D) MONTHLY SCHOOLING SUBTOTAL
$
E) MONTHLY VEHICLES SUBTOTAL
$
F) MONTHLY FOOD SUBTOTAL
$ -
G) MONTHLY ENTERTAINMENT SUBTOTAL
$ -
H) MONTHLY FINANCIAL SUBTOTAL
$ -
I) TOTAL PROFESSIONAL SUBTOTAL
$ -
J) MONTHLY MISCELLANEOUS SUBTOTAL
$ =
____________________________________________________________ TOTAL DISPOSABLE INCOME (MONTHLY)
$
Note that for our purposes, you are going to take no more than 25% to 50% of your personal Total Disposable Income figure above and use it for your Personal Betting Bankroll. Read more about this in Chapter 2.
* While I am not a certified financial advisor, I believe most professionals in the field would urge you to pay off credit cards as quickly as possible, not merely make the minimum monthly payments, since interest and finance charges can accumulate, limiting your disposable income and hurting your overall financial health.
Chapter 3
Program #1
THE 2-6 STRAIGHT BET SYSTEM
Keeping the Customer Satisfied A big part of any sportsbook manager’s job is making sure the regulars and high-rollers are kept happy. This involves a good amount of schmoozing and an even greater amount of “comps” -- complimentary meals, hard-to-score show tickets and plush hotel suites. The idea is to keep them in -- or coming back to -- your hotel and casino, because the longer they play, the better the odds they’re ultimately going to lose. After working for a while at the Rio and Desert Inn sportsbooks, I noticed that a small percentage of these regulars -- and I do mean small, about 2% -- seemed to defy the odds and win on a consistent basis. At first, I thought they may just be lucky. Then it occurred to me -- they weren’t lucky. They were smart. They were “betting wise.”
Loose Lips Sink Bookies’ Ships So I made it my personal mission to find out what these players knew that other gamblers -- and even a sportsbook manager like me -didn’t. Zeroing in on a longtime regular at the Desert Inn named Ed, I approached him one day with some small talk and a fistful of comps. He remembered me from the “old days” at the Rio, and we spent the afternoon reminiscing. Finally, I got up the nerve and asked him: “How are you doing it?” He eyed me for a moment and then smiled. Very few people who are great at what they do can resist talking about it. And even fewer can keep a secret. So he grabbed a cocktail napkin and a pen and showed me one of the simplest, most brilliant money-management strategies in the history of gambling. An old-timer from back East had taught it to him years before, and he’d since been using it to make big money. I’m now going to show it to you.
The Set-Up Each of my 12 Money-Management Programs are composed of a Series of bets that are either predetermined by me or can be quickly calculated by you using a Formula I’ll provide you. For the purposes of examples, all bets are straight bets on which you will be laying $11 to win $10 (or multiples thereof), the standard odds against the spread on basketball and football games, unless otherwise noted.
The Program The brilliant beauty of The 2-6 Straight Bet System is that you can win just 2 of any 6 bets (for a winning percentage of .333) in a Series and still attain a profit. Additionally, your wagers, or “Series Amounts,” are predetermined, so there’s no guesswork regarding how much to lay on a particular game. In The 2-6 Straight Bet System, you are going to make a Series of up to 6 bets, in the pre-calculated amounts of $11, $22, $44, $66, $88 and $132. You will bet 1 or 2 games at a time in the Series, moving up to the next Series Amount after each bet. When you achieve your goal of just 2 total wins, you roll your profits back into your Personal Betting Bankroll and start over at the beginning if you’d like. For example, to begin, make 1 wager in the Series Amount of $11, or 2 wagers, 1 in the Series Amount of $11 and the other in the Series Amount of $22. If you win both bets, your goal is attained and you add your profits to your Bankroll. If you win just 1 wager of the 2, however, you can bet only 1 game at a time thereafter, since you are seeking just 2 total wins anywhere in the Series of up to 6 wagers. Say, for instance, you win your first wager for $11, then lose bets in the subsequent Series Amounts of $22, $44, $66 and $88. Then you win your final wager in the Series, for $132, reaching your goal of only 2 total wins in 6 wagers. At that time, you can go back to the first number in the Series and start over with another Series of up to 6 bets, or begin playing one of my other great 12 MoneyManagement Programs.
The Goal The simple objective is to win any 2 bets in a Series of no more than 6 wagers.
The Series 11-22-44-66-88-132. (Again, Series are pre-calculated so that you can profit by winning the minimum set numbers of wagers in a particular System, in this case, 2. They also protect your Bankroll by representing about 25% of your total available money, so if you happen to go on a losing streak and lose your entire Series, you are down just 1 Betting Block, and still have 75% of your Bankroll with which to wager.)
The Formula For those who find the Series Amounts in the Series
11-22-44-66-88-132
too rich or poor for your blood, there is no reason you can’t raise or lower the amounts according to your betting objectives. The formula for setting the 6 Series Amounts in The 2-6 Straight Bet System is
a, 2a, 4a, 6a, 8a, 12a.
In the Series above, a = 11 or $11. If you find this too conservative, try a larger multiple of 11 for the value of a, say 22. If you pick 22 for the starting bet, your Series would be calculated 22, 44, 22 x 4 = 88, 22 x 6 = 132, 22 x 8 = 176 and 22 x 12 = 264, or
22-44-88-132-176-264.
On the other hand, if the prospect of having to risk $132 to make $120 should you go 1-4 or 0-5 in your first 5 bets makes you nervous, you can start with a $5.50 bet, or a Series of
$5.50-11-22-33-44-66,
which will limit the downside in the event you pick less than 50% winners or go on occasional losing streaks. For our purposes here, however, we will stick with the original betting Series for examples. Note that when setting your own Series Amounts, if you add up each of the 6 numbers in the Series, they should total about the same dollar figure of each of your 4 Betting Blocks, give or take 10%. This is what prevents you from losing more than 25% of your Bankroll during any given losing streak.
The Rules 1) Make only 1 or 2 bets at a time in the predetermined amounts until you have won at least 1 bet. 2) Once you have won 1 bet, bet only 1 game at a time in the predetermined Series Amounts, until you win a second wager.
3) When you win 2 bets in any Series of up to 6 wagers, your goal is achieved, so you roll your profits back into your Personal Betting Bankroll and either start over with a new Series to build your Bankroll, or begin a Series in another of my 12 Money-Management Programs. 4) If you suffer an unfortunate losing streak of 1-5 or 0-6, start over with a new Series and begin recouping your recent losses.
The Proof It’s one thing for me to boast that this System can turn a profit for you if you can pick just 33% winners, and it’s another to see it in black and white. Below is the proof. First, let’s look at example where you pick just 2 of 6 (or 33%) winners while betting traditional 11-10 odds against the spread, say on football or basketball games.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Net Profit
#1
11
lose
-11
-11
#2
22
lose
-22
-33
#3
44
lose
-44
-77
#4
66
lose
-66
-143
#5
88
win
+80
-63
#6
132
win
+120
+57
It’s hard to believe, but by going on a 2-4 losing streak, you’ve added an astounding $57 to your Bankroll.
Of course, the goal is to achieve 2 wins as fast as possible in the Series of up to 6 wagers, so hopefully you won’t regularly reach the sixth bet. Remember, your Series can end after 2 bets, if you win them both, at which point you start over. In our next example, let’s look at a scenario in which you win a mediocre 14 of 30 bets (or 47%) over the course of a month, assuming you lay 1 bet in this Series per day. (Keep in mind that you can run several Series at once, or play early and late games every day in a single Series and end up laying wagers on more than 30 bets in a month if you’d like.) While the bookmakers’ 10% “juice” (or commission) would cause you to lose money picking 50% winners with straight bets of the same amount, my System allows you to post a substantial profit.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#1
11
win
+10
+10
+10
#2
22
lose
-22
-12
-12
#3
44
win
+40
+28
+28
You win 2 out of your first 3 bets, so your Series goal is achieved. Add your winnings to your Bankroll and start over with another $11 wager. Note that you’re already ahead $28 by posting a 2-1 record, but if you had made 3 straight bets of $11 each, you’d be up only $9. So my System has already increased your profits by more than 300% after just 3 bets.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#4
11
lose
-11
-11
+17
#5
22
win
+20
+9
+37
#6
44
lose
-44
-35
-7
#7
66
lose
-66
-101
-73
#8
88
win
+80
-21
+7
Even though you now go on a slight losing streak, winning 2 bets and losing 3, you achieve your Series goal. You lose $21 for the Series but remain up $7 overall with a combined record of 4-4. Had you been placing $11 bets, you’d be at -$4 after 8 wagers. This is a great example of how my Systems can make you money when under normal betting circumstances you’d be in the hole. Let’s continue with our hypothetical month.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#9
11
lose
-11
-11
-4
#10
22
lose
-22
-33
-26
#11
44
win
+40
+7
+14
#12
66
win
+66
+73
+80
Again, your Series is over when you achieve 2 wins. What’s amazing is, even though you go just 2-2, you add $73 to your Bankroll. So, overall, you are 6-6, but you’re up $80. On the other hand, because of the juice extracted by bookies, you’d be at -$6 if you’d bet $11 on each game.
So far, our Series have lasted 3, 4 or 5 wagers each. Let’s see what happens when we go on minor winning and moderate losing streaks.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#13
11
win
+10
+10
+90
#14
22
win
+20
+30
+110
By attaining the quickest Series win possible of 2 wins with 2 bets, you now stand $110 ahead with an 8-6 overall record. Again, by laying $11 a game, you’d have just $14 to show for your efforts. By utilizing my Money-Management Program, your profits are 785% more than they’d be by betting the old way. Now, let’s see what happens when you go into that moderate slide.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#15
11
lose
-11
-11
+99
#16
22
lose
-22
-33
+77
#17
44
lose
-44
-77
+33
#18
66
win
+60
-17
+93
#19
88
lose
-88
-105
+5
#20
132
win
+120
+15
+125
As you can see, by increasing your bets methodically according to the predetermined amounts, you save huge losses despite a 2-4 losing streak. Adding $15 to your Bankroll, you’re now up $125 by picking 10 winners out of 20 bets (for a winning percentage of .500), whereas if you’d kept betting $11 a game, you’d be at -$10. Let’s finish out our hypothetical month with 1 mediocre and 1 losing Series and see how the numbers add up.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#21
11
lose
-11
-11
+114
#22
22
win
+20
+9
+134
#23
44
lose
-44
-35
+90
#24
66
win
+60
+25
+150
By going an average 2-2 with your picks, you manage to once again add $25 to your Bankroll, making it $150 richer than when you began. Meanwhile, the bettor making straight $11 bets with a 12-12 record would stand at -$12. Now, for the final Series in our month.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#25
11
lose
-11
-11
+139
#26
22
lose
-22
-33
+117
#27
44
win
+40
+7
+157
#28
66
lose
-66
-59
+91
#29
88
lose
-88
-147
+3
#30
132
win
+120
-27
+123
Even with a disappointing 2-4 finish, you still end up adding $123 to your Bankroll for the month by winning a so-so 47% of your picks. On the other hand, those plunking down the same $11 bet every day would find their Bankrolls depleted to the tune of -$36. Using just the first of my 12 Money-Management Programs, you have turned a $36 loss into a $123 profit. And that’s by hitting less than 50% winners. Imagine how much you can win if you have a bigger Personal Betting Bankroll to wager with, or you follow your favorite sports closely enough to consistently pick over 50% winners.
Tips 1) The 2-6 Straight Bet System turns a profit when you bet against the spread with traditional 11-10 odds (like on football and basketball), but it can show even more profit when used with “even-money” or better bets such as moneyline wagers (or which team will win “straight up” or outright, not against the spread) on underdogs. 2) For the reasons stated in Tip #1, this System works especially well when using the strategies detailed in Program #8, The Baseball Underdog System.
3) If you are betting against the moneyline and/or with odds worse than 11-10, make sure you wager enough to win the payouts associated with your Series Amounts. In other words, if you are betting on the Yankees -150, instead of wagering $11 to win $10, you must wager $15 to win $10. 4) Related to Tip #3, for any wager with odds worse than 11-10 that you lose, you must add the additional losses, in this case $4 ($15 $11 = $4), to the payout of what would be your normal Series Amount, in this case making your next Series Amount $26 ($20 + $4 = $24 payout so the next Series Amount at 11-10 odds would be $26 to win $24), so that a win can not only recoup your losses but post a profit. 5) Don’t forget to also add any money paid to a professional handicapper for his picks to your Series Amounts in the same way you add losses at worse than 11-10 odds (as explained in Tip #4). Keep in mind that if you pay $25 for 5 picks, you must add only $5 to each Series Amount, assuming you run 5 Series that day. In other words, divide the handicapper’s fee among the total number of picks you play that day. 6) If your Bankroll allows it, try running 2 or more Series at once, which can boost your monthly profits to $500 or more on this System alone. 7) Don’t forget to keep strict track of your 2-6 Straight Bet System bets using copies of the Chart provided at the end of this chapter
Crunching the Numbers For those who want to delve further into The 2-6 Straight Bet System and understand the mathematical laws that make it work, I’ve listed below literally every possible outcome of The 2-6 Straight Bet System in which you achieve 2 wins in a Series. Next to each possible outcome, I’ve shown your net profits, including juice paid to the bookmaker. Next to that I’ve included the amount you would have won betting the traditional way of laying the same amount on every game. Last, there’s a column reminding you how much extra money my System has put in your pocket. Note that even when suffering through unfortunate losing streaks, you still make so much more -- or lose so much less -- than if you’d bet the old way.
Series Betting Record
Your Net Profit $
Net Profit If Making All $11 Bets
Extra $ For You
(2-0) W-W
+30
+ 20
+10
(2-1) W-L-W L-W-W
+28 +49
+9 +9
+19 +39
(2-2) W-L-L-W L-W-L-W L-L-W-W
+4 +25 +67
-2 -2 -2
+6 +27 +69
-42 -13 +21 +63
-13 -13 -13 -13
-19 0 +34 +77
-90 -69 -27 +15 +57
-24 -24 -24 -24 -24
-66 -45 -3 +39 +81
(2-3) W-L-L-L-W L-W-L-L-W L-L-W-L-W L-L-L-W-W (2-4) W-L-L-L-L-W L-W-L-L-L-W L-L-W-L-L-W L-L-L-W-L-W L-L-L-L-W-W
As you see, there are only 15 possible winning Series outcomes of The 2-6 Straight Bet System, and 10 of them (or 67%) make you money, as shown above. Also, in 11 of the 15 scenarios (or 73%), you’re as good or better off betting with my System than with straight $11 bets. Incredibly, of the 12 unfortunate scenarios in which you post a .500 or losing record with 2 wins in the 2-6 System, 7 of them (or 58%) still earn you profits. In fact, all 3 scenarios in which you achieve 2 wins and 2 losses net you a profit. Remarkably, half of the scenarios in which you win 2 games and lose 3 still build on your Bankroll. Even more astounding is that 2 of the 5 scenarios in which you win 2 and lose 4 wagers earn you as much as $57 in profit -- or as much as an $81 increase over traditional betting -- for picking just 33% winners.
Weathering the Dry Spells Into every gambler’s life comes the occasional dry spell, of course. These dreaded losing streaks that result in a 1-5 or 0-6 Series in The 2-6 Straight Bet System can cost you. But because you’ve set up your Personal Betting Bankroll and have broken that into 4 equal Betting Blocks, you not only maximize your profits, you minimize your risks. In the rare instance when you lose 5 of 6 wagers in a Series -- or even go all 6 bets without a win -- you still have more than 75% of your original Bankroll in reserve to recoup your losses with future wins. Because, as all bettors know, the tide will inevitably turn back in your favor. The examples below show the only 7 possible outcomes out of 22 (or 32%) in which you will show significant losses to one of your Betting Blocks. On the up side, if this occurs, there are 3 more Betting Blocks where those came from.
Series Betting Record
Your Net Profit $
Net Profit If Making All $11 Bets
Extra $ For You
(1-5) W-L-L-L-L-L L-W-L-L-L-L L-L-W-L-L-L L-L-L-W-L-L L-L-L-L-W-L L-L-L-L-L-W
-342 -321 -279 -237 -195 -111
-44 -44 -44 -44 -44 -44
-298 -277 -235 -193 -151 -67
(0-6) L-L-L-L-L-L
-363
-66
-297
While these numbers may seem daunting, don’t forget that 1-5 and 0-6 streaks make up less than 33% of the possible outcomes. And for regular bettors who do their homework on games, 0-6 losing streaks come along much less regularly than 1 in every 3 Series. Also, such droughts are often followed up by winning streaks that will wipe out these losses and, even if they don’t, your Betting Blocks held in reserve are created precisely for this reason. For instance, one winning streak of 8-2, as shown below, can potentially negate the losing skid of 1 win and 5 losses shown above.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#1
11
win
+10
+10
+10
#2
22
win
+20
+30
+30
Your goal of 2 wins is achieved, so add $30 to your Bankroll.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#3
11
lose
-11
-11
+19
#4
22
win
+20
+9
+39
#5
44
win
+40
+31
+79
With 2 wins in 3 bets, add $31 to your Bankroll for an overall profit of $79 for going 4-1.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#6
11
win
+10
+10
+89
#7
22
lose
-22
-12
+67
#8
44
win
+40
+28
+107
Again, add $28 to your Bankroll, giving you $107 profit for posting a 6-2 record.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#9
11
win
+10
+10
+117
#10
22
win
+20
+30
+137
By winning another $30 with 8 wins out of 10 wagers, you add $137 to your Bankroll, which erases between about 40% to 100% of the losses incurred by a 1-5 or 0-6 slump.
The 2-5 Straight Bet System: The 2-6 With a Twist If you are an experienced gambler who doesn’t find it unusual to win 50% of your picks consistently, The 2-5 Straight Bet System is an effective variation on my 2-6 System. I suggest that you use this Series of
20-30-40-60-120
primarily for even-money or better bets (such as selected “totals,” or over/under wagers) and/or when betting the moneyline on underdogs, and with your strongest daily picks. Why? Because in this new Series you must win at least 50% of your first 4 bets to show a profit. Even if you go 0-4, however, the fifth bet will recoup the majority of your previous 4 losses, but not all of them. Let’s give 2 quick examples to show how picking 50% winners can work for you in this bonus System, and how the final bet can make up for a short slump. First, let’s examine a Series in which you hit 50% winners. (Note that we are playing even-money or better wagers, such as underdogs on the moneyline, in this example, as suggested.)
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
#1
20
lose
-20
-20
#2
30
win
+30
+10
#3
40
lose
-40
-30
#4
60
win
+60
+30
So with a 2-2 record, you net $30 in winnings, while if you’d bet every game at $20, even with even-money odds you’d merely break even. Next, let’s see what happens when you correct an 0-4 skid with a winning bet on the next wager. (Note that, again, we are playing even-money wagers in this example, as encouraged.)
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
#1
20
lose
-20
-20
#2
30
lose
-30
-50
#3
40
lose
-40
-90
#4
60
lose
-60
-150
#5
120
win
+120
-30
While a bettor laying the same $20 on each game would be at -$60 after a 1-5 record, you take just a $30 hit to your Bankroll.
Summing It All Up
Without a doubt, these examples detailing The 2-6 Straight Bet System have proven to you how essential my 12 Money-Management Programs are to limiting losses or turning them into profits, and to turning modest winnings into big money. Here’s a quick overview of the System: 1) Make only 1 or 2 bets at a time in the predetermined amounts until you have won at least 1 bet. 2) Once you have won 1 bet, bet only 1 game at a time in the predetermined amounts, until you win a second wager. 3) When you achieve your second win in any Series of up to 6 wagers, your goal is achieved. 4) Roll your profits back into your Personal Betting Bankroll and either start over with a new Series to build your Bankroll, or begin a Series in another of my 12 Money-Management Programs. 5) Should you suffer an unfortunate losing streak of 1-5 or 0-6, start over with a new Series and begin recouping your recent losses. 6) If you’re a bettor confident of regularly winning 50% of your picks, you may want to try The 2-5 Straight Bet System, which uses a slightly different Series. 7) Every month or so, evaluate your Personal Betting Bankroll, and increase your 4 Betting Blocks if you feel comfortable doing so. 8) Make sure you track every single bet with the handy Chart at the end of this chapter.
If you liked the 2-6 System or its sibling, the 2-5 System, wait until you see The 2-3 Straight Bet System in the next chapter, which requires you to win just 2 of any 3 wagers in a Series of up to 8 bets to substantially boost your Bankroll.
Chapter 4
Program #2 THE 2-3 STRAIGHT BET SYSTEM
The Money-Management Mantra Much like the key to making money in real-estate investments is location, location, location, the key to making money in sports gambling is discipline, discipline, discipline. Every bettor has his favorite story of the big score he made on a big game. For the average $100-a-game gambler, it may be the time he won $1,500 on a Vikings game. For a “dime” bettor -- who plays $1,000 a game -- it may be the time he spotted an ill-conceived line on a Flyers game and laid just $10,000 to win $15,000.
What no gambler likes to brag about are the 10 or 25 or 50 times he lost big money chasing that one memorable “monster” payday.
Bet With Your Head, Never Just Your Heart During the NHL playoffs in 2003, a client (who shall remain nameless) phoned to tell me he’d been taking a beating and needed a “sure thing.” Since he had been buying my daily Internet picks and I’d been on a good run, I asked him how this was possible. He sheepishly confessed that he was a Colorado Avalanche fan and had been betting them instead of going with my hockey picks. When the Avalanche had gone up 3-1 in their first-round series against the Minnesota Wild in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, my client explained to me, he put down $4,000 to win $2,000, betting that they’d win Game 5 to close out the series. When they lost by a score of 3-2, he upped his wager to $10,000 to win $5,000, banking that they’d put away the Wild in Game 6. Again the Avalanche lost 3-2, this time in a down-to-the-wire overtime game. That’s when he called me. As kindly as I could, I told him it was betting habits just like his that I preach against in my 12 MoneyManagement Programs. “I know, I know ... never again,” he told me, quickly adding, “but do you have a winner?” By sheer coincidence, I did have one of my strongest picks of the NHL playoffs going off that night: Vancouver -1.5 goals +160. As confident as I felt about the pick, I cautioned him that continuing to chase his losses could just put him deeper in the hole. That night, when my pick came in a winner as Vancouver won 4-1, I thought my client just possibly had been saved by providence. But you won’t believe what he did. Or maybe you will. Desperate for his favorite team to win the deciding Game 7 -- and to make back his losses -- he bet $15,000 on the Avalanche and didn’t put a dime on Vancouver. I probably don’t have to tell you that Colorado lost -- again 3-2, again in OT, and at home no less. They’d lost the series and my client had lost a total of 30 grand. Now, for a multimillionaire whose wife spends 10 grand a month on clothes, losing $30,000 isn’t the end of the world. But for a working guy like my client, it can be a devastating blow not only financially but emotionally.
If you’re going to bet with your heart like my client did, at least do it with your head in charge of the checkbook. If he had simply set his wagers based on the Series Amounts from his current betting Series, his losses would have been minimal, and the inevitable wins that followed would have negated them. But he strayed from the simple rules of my 12 Money-Management Programs and paid the price -- the price of a new C-series Mercedes.
Different ‘Wise Guy,’ Similar Principle Larry, a regular at the Desert Inn when I managed the sportsbook at the casino, was nothing like my client, the Avalanche fan. Larry was a nice guy from the Midwest who bet nearly every day, all year long, but never over his head. Seeing Larry’s winnings pile up, it didn’t take me long to realize that, like Ed in the previous chapter, Larry was “betting wise.” After I assured Larry that I’d never banned any bettor from my casino for winning too much or too often -- you’d be surprised at how many sportsbook managers do just that -- Larry came clean and admitted he was using a method to stay ahead. He explained that he’d picked it up from a friend back in Chicago and was using it every day for his personal “best bets” to make a nice living. I asked Larry if he’d mind sharing the strategy with me. He didn’t even hesitate. Now you can use it to beat your bookie too, parlaying it into the type of regular income Larry still does to this day.
The Set-Up Each of my 12 Money-Management Programs are composed of a Series of bets that are predetermined by me or can be quickly calculated by you using a provided Formula. For the purposes of our examples in this chapter, all bets are straight bets on which you will be laying $11 to win $10 (or multiples thereof), such as against the spread on football and basketball, unless otherwise noted.
The Program The 2-3 Straight Bet System outdoes the 2-6 System, if that’s possible, by guaranteeing that you turn a profit if you pick 2 of 5 (or 40%) winners. In The 2-3 Straight Bet System, you are going to make a Series of bets in the pre-calculated amounts of $11, $22, $33, $55, $88, $143, $231 or $374 with the intent of winning 2 of any 3 wagers along the way. Once again, your Series Amounts are preset, so there’s no guesswork regarding how much to lay on a particular game. The one major difference from the 2-6 System is that you’ll move “up and down” the string of Series Amounts depending on whether you’ve won or lost your previous wager. You will bet 1 game at a time in the Series until you have picked winners in 2 total games in any 3-wager stretch, rolling your profits into your Personal Betting Bankroll after achieving this goal. At that time, you can go back to the first number in the Series and start over with another Series, or begin playing one of my other great 12 Money-Management Programs.
The Goal The simple objective is to win 2 total bets in any 3-wager stretch of a Series.
The Series 11-22-33-55-88-143-231-374.
The Formula For those who find the betting amounts in the Series
11-22-33-55-88-143-231-374
too high or low for your betting habits and Bankroll, you can easily raise or lower the amounts according to your tastes. The Formula for setting the 8 Series Amounts in The 2-3 Straight Bet System is
a, 2a, 3a, 5a, 8a, 13a, 21a, 34a.
In the Series above, a = 11 or $11. If you find this too conservative, try a larger multiple of 11 for the value of a, for example 22. If you pick 22 for the starting bet, your Series would be calculated as 22, 2 x 22 = 44, 3 x 22 = 66, 5 x 22 = 110, 8 x 22 = 176, 13 x 22 = 286, 21 x 22 = 462, 34 x 22 = 748, or
22-44-66-110-176-286-462-748.
On the other hand, if the prospect of having to risk $374 to make $340 should you go 1-6 or 0-7 in your first 7 bets makes you cringe, you can start with a $5.50 bet, or a Series of
$5.50-11-16.50-27.50-44-71.50-115.50-187.
For our purposes here, however, we will stick with the original Series Amounts for examples. Again, as a guide to setting your Series Amounts, you can add up the 8 wager amounts in your Series and make sure they don’t substantially exceed the dollar figure of each of your 4 Betting Blocks.
Don’t become alarmed if this Series seems to take up the better part of 2 Betting Blocks, since because you move “up and down” the Series it is unlikely you’ll regularly reach the highest amounts in the Series. Still, the total of all 8 Series Amounts probably shouldn’t ever near or exceed 50% of your Bankroll, just to ensure you have an adequate betting reserve should a bad losing streak come along.
The Rules 1) To start, make 1 wager in the predetermined amount of $11, to use our example Series figure. 2) Regardless of whether you win the first wager, move up 1 amount in the Series and make your second bet, for $22 in this case. (Note that you can start by making 2 wagers, 1 for $11 and the other for $22.) 3) If you win your first 2 bets, your goal of winning 2 total bets among any 3 wagers is achieved, and you may start over with a new Series, or begin another Series in a different Program. 4) After you make your second bet, for $22 in our example, you will move up 1 Series Amount following each loss and down 1 Series Amount following each win. So if you lose your second bet, your third will be for $33. If you win your second bet, your third will be for $11. 5) Keep moving up 1 Series Amount after each loss and down 1 Series Amount after each win, until you win 2 total bets out of any 3 wagers. Once that goal is reached, you may start over with a new Series, or begin another Series in a different Program. 6) Every month or so, evaluate your Personal Betting Bankroll, and increase your 4 Betting Blocks if you feel comfortable doing so. 7) Make sure you track every single bet with the handy Chart at the end of this chapter.
The Proof
By putting The 2-3 Straight Bet System to the test, you’ll quickly be convinced of its power to increase your betting income, since it guarantees you a profit if you can hit 40% or better winners. But don’t just take my word for it. Below is the evidence. First, let’s look at an example where you pick just 2 of 5 (or 40%) winners.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
#1
11
lose
-11
-11
#2
22
lose
-22
-33
#3
33
win
+30
-3
#4
22
lose
-22
-25
#5
33
win
+30
+5
Normally, a 2-3 losing streak can leave you down in the dumps -- not to mention down more than a few bucks. But the 2-3 System puts you in the money by picking just 40% winners. Since you achieve your goal of winning 2 bets in a span of 3 wagers, your Series is over and you add $5 to your Bankroll. Someone betting $11 every game, meanwhile, would be -$13. To further prove the point, let’s assume that it takes you 10 bets to hit 2 of 3 winners. Let’s also assume that, once again, you hit just 40% winners, or 4 of 10 picks.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
#1
11
win
+10
+10
#2
22
lose
-22
-12
#3
33
lose
-33
-45
#4
55
lose
-55
-100
#5
88
win
+80
-20
#6
55
lose
-55
-75
#7
88
lose
-88
-163
#8
143
win
+130
-33
#9
88
lose
-88
-121
#10
143
win
+130
+9
Amazing. While betting straight $11 bets would make you -$26 after going 4-6, you’re up $9. Now, you’re not going to get rich by picking 40% winners, but isn’t it great to know you actually make a little money with such a mediocre track record, even after paying the bookie his “vig” (or commission)? In our next example, let’s look at a month’s worth of bets in which you win 15 of 30 (or 50%) of your bets.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#1
11
win
+10
+10
+10
#2
22
lose
-22
-12
-12
#3
33
lose
-33
-45
-45
#4
55
win
+50
+5
+5
#5
33
lose
-33
-28
-28
#6
55
win
+50
+22
+22
Since you win 2 bets in a 3-wager stretch, your Series is over. Add $22 to your Bankroll after a so-so 3-3 start, and begin another Series. Note that you’re $25 richer than a bettor who laid $11 on every wager rather than set his wager amounts in response to previous outcomes and would now be -$3.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#7
11
lose
-11
-11
+11
#8
22
lose
-22
-33
-11
#9
33
win
+30
-31
+19
# 10
22
win
+20
+17
+39
By going just 2-2 in your next 4 bets, you finished another Series and can add $17 to your Bankroll, giving you $39 for picking 5 winners out of 10 wagers. A bettor putting $11 on every game, on the other hand, would now be -$5, thanks to the juice extracted by bookies.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#11
11
win
+10
+10
+49
#12
22
lose
-22
-12
+27
#13
33
lose
-33
-45
-6
#14
55
lose
-55
-100
-61
#15
88
win
+80
-20
+19
#16 #17
55 88
lose lose
-55 -88
-75 -163
-36 -124
#18
143
win
+130
-33
+6
#19
88
lose
-88
-121
-82
#20
143
lose
-143
-264
-225
#21
231
win
+210
-54
-15
#22
143
win
+130
+76
+115
Again, you see the power of the 2-3 System as you go 5-7 yet add a remarkable $76 to your bankroll to give you $115. At the same time, the traditional bettor laying $11 per game loses another $27 to drop to -$32.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#23
11
win
+10
+10
+125
#24
22
lose
-22
-12
+103
#25
33
win
+30
+18
+133
With a quick 2-1 streak, you boost your Bankroll by $18 to $133, while your counterpart, betting the “old” way, adds $9 and still hasn’t broken even, at -$23.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Net Profit
#26
11
win
+10
+10
+143
#27
22
lose
-22
-12
+121
#28
33
lose
-33
-45
+88
#29
55
win
+50
+5
+138
#30
33
win
+30
+35
+168
By ending 3-2 and adding $35 to your Bankroll, you finish the month up $168 despite picking just 50% winners. On the other hand, the player who bets $11 per game ends the month -$15. So, remarkably, you’ve turned a $15 loss into a $186 profit by staying disciplined and betting according to The 2-3 Straight Bet System.
Tips 1) If you wish, you may open your first Series in the 2-3 System with 2 bets at once, of $11 and $22, since the goal is to achieve 2 total wins. After this, however, you must bet 1 game at a time, since you must move up or down the Series according to whether you win or lose the previous wager. 2) If you suffer an unfortunate losing streak of 0-7, it is impossible for you to reach your goal of 2 total wins, so do not feel obligated to make the eighth wager. You may at this point cut your losses and start over on a new Series, or pick another of my 12 MoneyManagement Programs to win with. 3) The 2-3 Straight Bet System works ideally with your personal “best bets” of the day. 4) If you are betting against the moneyline and/or with odds worse than 11-10, make sure you wager enough to win the payouts associated with your Series Amounts. In other words, if you are betting on the Yankees -150, instead of wagering $11 to win $10, you must wager $15 to win $10. 5) Related to Tip #4, for any wager with odds worse than 11-10 that you lose, you must add the additional losses, in this case $4 ($15 $11 = $4), to the payout of what would be your next normal Series Amount, in this case making your next Series amount $26 ($20 + $4 = $24 payout so the next Series amount at 11-10 odds would be $26 to win $24), so that a win can not only recoup your losses but post a profit. 6) Don’t forget to also add any money paid to a professional handicapper for his picks to your Series Amounts in the same way you add losses at worse than 11-10 odds (as explained in Tip #4). Keep in mind that if you pay $25 for 5 picks, you must add only $5 to
each Series Amount, assuming you run 5 Series that day. In other words, divide the handicapper’s fee among the total number of picks you play that day. 7) If your Bankroll allows it, try running 2 or more Series at once, which can boost your monthly profits to $500 or more on this System alone. 8) Don’t forget to keep strict track of your 2-3 Straight Bet System bets using copies of the Chart provided at the end of this chapter
Crunching the Numbers Because the 2-3 System involves moving up and down the Series, it has dozens of possible outcomes -- too numerous to list all of them here. As you’ve seen in the examples above, however, you’re guaranteed to turn a small profit while hitting just 40% winners and can make a tidy sum while picking 50% winners. Even the best of bettors have bad streaks, however, so let’s take a look at some of the other possible scenarios. Unlike with the 2-6 System, which can go a maximum of 6 bets with its Series, the 2-3 System can continue for up to 22 bets as you move up and down the Series. For curiosity’s sake, let’s take a look at the longest possible outcome, in which you finish with either an 8-14 or 7-15 record.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
#1
11
lose
-11
-11
#2
22
win
+20
+9
#3
11
lose
-11
-2
#4
22
lose
-22
-24
#5
33
win
+30
+6
#6
22
lose
-22
-16
#7
33
lose
-33
-49
#8
55
win
+50
+1
#9
33
lose
-33
-32
#10
55
lose
-55
-87
#11
88
win
+80
-7
#12
55
lose
-55
-62
#13
88
lose
-88
-150
#14
143
win
+130
-20
#15
88
lose
-88
-108
#16
143
lose
-143
-251
#17
231
win
+210
-41
#18
143
lose
-143
-184
#19
231
lose
-231
-415
#20
374
win
+340
-75
#21
231
lose
-231
-306
#22
374
win
+340
+34
As you can see, the 2-3 System protects you against big losses, even when you go a sub par 8 wins and 14 losses (or 36%). Yes, it is possible to make a profit hitting fewer than 40% winners with this System, but it’s not guaranteed. Betting straight $11 bets with the above record of 8-14, meanwhile, would leave your Bankroll at -$74.
Crunching the Numbers (Even Further) Falling below the 36% mark with the 2-3 System can hit your Personal Betting Bankroll hard, though thanks to the mathematical certainties behind the System, the blow won’t be fatal. For example, if you lose rather than win Bet #22 in the example above, your Bankroll stands at -$680 after 7 wins and 15 losses (or a winning percentage of 32%). The good news is that even after such an extended losing streak, your Personal Betting Bankroll is still nearly 60% intact. Despite using The 2-3 Straight Bet System to play your best bets, what happens if you hit a brick wall and not merely a bad skid? Let’s work at the worst-case scenario. If you start off the Series with 0 wins and 7 losses, your Bankroll stands at -$583, which represents just about a one-third hit to your reserves. At this point, you have a decision to make. Let’s assume you elect to forge ahead. If you lose the ninth bet, for $374, you’d be -$957, or down more than half your Bankroll. Keep in mind that of the dozens and dozens of possibilities, this is the single, absolute worst scenario. On the flip side, after an 0-7 start let’s say you instead win that eighth bet and cut your losses to -$243. At this point, you can elect to play out the Series, hoping for a win with either of your 2 final bets, limiting your total losses to either -$33 or -$134. Bet $ Wagered Result $ W/L Series Profit
#9
231
win
+210
-33
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
#9
231
loss
-231
-474
#10
374
win
+340
-134
or
Of course, in the latter scenario above, if you lose Bet #10, you are -$848 with a 1-9 record. Even down this much, luckily you still have more than $700 in reserves in your Personal Betting Bankroll. That’s what it’s there for -- bad stretches like these. Please note that I’m including these disappointing scenarios in the interest of full disclosure. Even though I can guarantee you’ll profit by hitting 40% winners with this System, it isn’t going to turn long-term bad calls into cash. No Program can. But if you do your homework and your teams win 4 out of 10 times over the short run, you’ll be smiling all the way to the bank.
Summing It All Up The simple goal of The 2-3 Straight Bet System, which guarantees a profit if you can pick at least 40% winners, is to win 2 of any 3 wagers in a Series. Here’s a quick overview of the System, which I recommend you use to play your best bets every day:
1) To start, make 1 wager in the predetermined amount of $11, to use our example Series figure.
2) Regardless of whether you win the first wager, move up 1 amount in the Series and make your second bet, for $22 in this case. (Note that you can start by making 2 wagers, 1 for $11 and the other for $22.) 3) If you win your first 2 bets, your goal of winning 2 total bets among any 3 wagers is achieved, and you may start over with a new Series, or begin another Series in a different Program. 4) After you make your second bet, for $22 in our example, you will move up 1 Series Amount following each loss and down 1 Series Amount following each win. So if you lose your second bet, your third will be for $33. If you win your second bet, your third will be for $11. 5) Keep moving up 1 Series Amount after each loss and down 1 Series Amount after each win, until you win 2 total bets out of any 3 wagers. Once that goal is reached, you may start over with a new Series, or begin another Series in a different Program. 6) Every month or so, evaluate your Personal Betting Bankroll, and increase your 4 Betting Blocks if you feel comfortable doing so. 7) Make sure you track every single bet with the handy Chart at the end of this chapter.
Chapter 5
Program #3 THE 4-LEVEL ACCUMULATION SYSTEM
The Long Road With No Turning Smart gamblers -- I’m including you in this exclusive group since I presume you’ve already made the commitment to use one or more of my 12 Money-Management Programs -- don’t bet for the rush of instant gratification that comes with any single victory.
In fact, to win consistently you must be in it for the long haul, taking just as much gratification and pride in limiting your occasional losses as in building steady profits. For every Jennifer Lopez who plunks down $400,000 on a Super Bowl underdog and hits pay dirt, like the actress-singer reportedly did in Las Vegas before the 2003 NFL championship game between the favored Oakland Raiders and the undervalued Tampa Bay Buccaneers, there are millions of bettors who make the periodic bet on a big game and come up empty-handed. Of course, you never hear about those losers. Unless you work at a casino sportsbook, like I did for 10 years. Then you know just how few winners there are out there.
The Daily Grind Can Be Fun (and Profitable) Most winning gamblers -- and by that I mean those such as you, who are employing money-management techniques -- are like profootball fullbacks. They keep pounding away, day after day, week after week, game after game. If they suffer a loss or two, it’s not the end of the world. They pick themselves up, dust themselves off, put the momentary setback out of their minds, and come back with another attempt. At the end of the year, much like a fullback who quietly gains 3.2 yards per carry en route to a 1,000-yard season, money-management gamblers look up and realize they’ve substantially increased their Personal Betting Bankrolls. They’ve worked hard and it’s paid off. They’re winners.
Leveling With You: Winning Can Take Time While my first 2 Programs are about achieving and repeating short-term betting goals -- such as winning 2 bets in a Series of 6 wagers, or picking 2 winners among any 3 bets -- Program #3 is truly meant for the long haul. Instead of potentially lasting a single day or week, The 4-Level Accumulation System can help you grind out profits for months or even years with just 1 Series.
I discovered this System like I did almost all of my Programs, by taking note of a gambler at my sportsbook who was making consistent money over the long term. Tommy came in to the Desert Inn every day and hung out with the other regulars. He never bet a lot of money -- you could tell he was “comfortable” yet no millionaire -- but he cheered on his teams like he had a million bucks riding on them. For Tommy, the $50 he plunked down on the Jets was a lot to risk. But he never seemed to take it personally when he lost, like a lot of gamblers do. One day I asked him why. He told me that for him gambling was his hobby, and the sportsbook was his club. He came for the camaraderie as much as for the betting. And as a retired guy on a fixed income, he literally couldn’t afford to lose. So he wagered conservatively, using a technique he’d learned from an old-time gambler. When I left the Desert Inn, Tommy had been using The 4-Level Accumulation System for more than 16 months without losing his current Series. I’m now going to share it with you, and if you’re smart you’ll use it to churn out regular revenue for the rest of your life.
The Set-Up Each of my 12 Money-Management Programs are composed of a Series of bets that are either predetermined by me or can be quickly calculated by you using a Formula I’ll provide you. For the purposes of the examples in this chapter, all bets are straight bets on which we will be laying $11 to win $10 (or multiples thereof), such as against the spread on basketball and football, unless otherwise noted.
The Program
The 4-Level Accumulation System is substantially different from my first couple of Programs, in that you’ll be betting the same dollar figure for long stretches at a time on each of 4 Levels. For that reason, it’s perfect for both everyday gamblers who like to bet on more than a single game at a time, or for weekend bettors who want to be virtually guaranteed they can make it through an entire football, basketball, baseball or hockey season without depleting their entire Bankrolls. In The 4-Level Accumulation System, you make a Series of at least 22 bets (but hopefully dozens and dozens more) on 4 Levels in the pre-calculated amounts of $11, $22, $44 or $66, moving gradually from 1 Level to the next and back again according to your accumulated Bankroll at any given time. You start on Level 1 by betting $11 on every play, rolling all your winnings back into your Bankroll, and move up to the Level 2 amount of $22 per wager only when you lose a predetermined number of units or dollars (in this case, 7 units or $77). From now on, we’ll refer to these preset units and dollars that alert you to move up a Level as “Trigger Numbers.” When your Series of $22 wagers wins you enough to erase your losses and show a 20% profit (about $100 total), you return to making $11 bets on Level 1 because you achieved your “Recoup Numbers.” However, should you lose another $132 or 12 units (your Trigger Numbers) on Level 2, you move up to Level 3 and raise your bets to $44, trying to erase your Level 2 losses and add 20% profit by winning $160 or 15 units (your Recoup Numbers). Only if you lose yet another $220 or 20 units (your Trigger Numbers) on Level 3 do you proceed to Level 4 and up your bets to $66 each. On Level 4, your goal is to erase your Level 3 losses plus add 20% profit by winning $264 or 24 units (your Recoup Numbers). Losing $264 or 26 units (your Trigger Numbers) ends your Series. Note that once you raise your wager amounts, whether from Level 1 to 2, Level 2 to 3, or Level 3 to 4, you’re trying to win back only your losses from the 1 previous Level, plus a profit of about 20%. At that point, you move back down to the previous Level and continue betting. Because your Series Amounts are preset on each Level, there’s no agonizing over how much to lay on any single game. And there’s likewise no mystery regarding when to raise your bets to the next highest Level, or when to lower them back again, because of the precalculated Trigger Numbers and Recoup Numbers. The Series doesn’t end until you’ve lost all 4 Levels -- or a total of $693 or 63 units -- the chances of which are very slim.
How slim? Well, you’d have to pick 0 winners and 22 losers right off the bat to lose less than half your Bankroll. And by picking just 5 winners and 12 losers (or 29%), as shown in the example below, you’ll lose only 7 units, and still not have made your first bet on Level 2.
The Goal The simple objective is to amass steady profits over a long period by gradually raising and lowering wager amounts according to 4 preset Levels. When losses build up, you strategically raise your bet amounts in order to erase them plus post a 20% profit, then return to your previous wager amounts.
The 4 Levels 11-11-11-11-11-11-11 22-22-22-22-22-22 44-44-44-44-44 66-66-66-66.
The Trigger and Recoup Numbers Remember, you bet the same amount on every wager until you hit the Trigger Numbers of losses (in dollars or units) for any Level, at which point you move up to the next Level. Likewise, you earn you way back down to the previous Level by hitting the Recoup Numbers of winnings (in dollars or units) for any Level.
Level Bets # Amount
Trigger # In Units*
Trigger # in Dollars*
Recoup # in Units**
Recoup # in Dollars**
1
$11
-7
-$77
NA
NA
2
$22
-12
-$132
9
$100
3
$44
-20
-$220
15
$160
4
$66
-24
-$264
24
$264
* When you lose this number of dollars or units in any 1 Level, this “triggers” your move up to the next Level. ** You must win back (or “recoup”) this number of units or dollars (including 20% profit) before earning your way back to the previous Level.
The Formula For those who find the Series Amounts of the 4 Levels too low, you can increase your wagers according to your Personal Betting Bankroll and individual situation. The Formula for setting the Series Amounts in The 4-Level Accumulation System is
a, 2a, 4a, 6a.
In the Series above, a = 11 or $11. If you find this too conservative, try a larger value of a, for example 22. If you pick 22 for the starting bet, your Series would be calculated as 22, 2 x 22 = 44, 4 x 22 = 88, 6 x 22 = 132, or
22-22-22-22-22-22-22 44-44-44-44-44-44 88-88-88-88-88 132-132-132-132.
For our purposes here, however, we will stick with the original Series Amounts for examples. As a guide to setting your Series Amounts, you can add up the 22 wager amounts in your Series (7 on Level 1, 6 on Level 2, 5 on Level 3 and 4 on Level 4) and make sure they don’t account for more than 50% of your Personal Betting Bankroll. Normally, you’ll remember, your Personal Betting Bankroll is made up of 4 Betting Blocks, but if you prefer, you can split it into just 2 Betting Blocks with The 4-Level Accumulation System, since this Series is designed and adjusted for long-term play. Of course, you still may want to split your Personal Betting Bankroll into 4 Betting Blocks, so you can play this Program simultaneously along with 2 or 3 of my other Systems and not put your betting reserves in any kind of jeopardy.
The Rules 1) To start this Series, make 1 or more wagers in the predetermined Level 1 amount of $11, to use our example Series Amount. 2) Keep betting $11 on games and rolling the profits back into your Bankroll until you lose $77, or 7 units, the Trigger Numbers for Level 1.
3) If you lose $77 or 7 units, up your wagers to the Level 2 amount of $22 apiece and keep betting, rolling your winnings back into your Bankroll. 4) Once you have reached your Recoup Numbers on Level 2, meaning you have erased your $77 in losses and added a profit of about 20% by winning $100 or 9 units, reduce your wagers back to the Level 1 amount of $11 apiece. 5) Should you hit the Trigger Numbers of -$132 or -12 units while betting $22 per play on Level 2, raise your wagers to the Level 3 amount of $44, and keep betting, rolling your winnings back into your Bankroll. 6) When you reach your Recoup Numbers on Level 3, meaning you have erased your $132 in losses and added a profit of about 20% by winning $160 or 15 units, reduce your wagers back to the Level 2 amount of $22 apiece. Or, if you hit the Trigger Numbers on Level 3 by losing yet another $220 or 20 units, raise your bets to the Level 4 amount of $66 apiece. 7) Should you continue an unlikely extended losing streak and reach your Trigger Numbers on Level 4 of -$264 or -24 units, your Series is over. 8) Otherwise, keep betting on each Level until your preset Trigger Numbers prompt you to move up a Level and bet a higher wager amount, or until your Recoup Numbers prompt you to move back down to the previous Level and lower your wagers. 9) Be sure to track all your bets carefully using the handy Chart at the end of this chapter. 10) Every month or so, evaluate your Personal Betting Bankroll, and increase your 4 Level amounts if you feel comfortable doing so.
The Proof The 4-Level Accumulation System has virtually an infinite number of possible outcomes, so many that I could fill up an entire book just with examples. Instead, I’ll show you only a couple to let you know how successful it is in keeping you in the money for weeks and months at a time, or perhaps indefinitely.
Then, later on this chapter, I’ll provide you with the key Trigger and Recoup Numbers for several higher Series Amounts so you’ll know when to move from 1 Level to the next and back again. First, let’s look at that example where you pick just 5 of 17 (or 29%) winners while betting $11 a game on Level 1. Keep in mind that you always bet the same amount until you reach your Trigger Numbers of -$77 or -7 units, at which point you must move to Level 2 and begin wagering $22.
Bet
$ Wagered
Result
$ W/L
Series Profit
Units W/L
#1
11
lose
-11
-11
-1
#2
11
lose
-11
-22
-2
#3
11
lose
-11
-33
-3
#4
11
win
+10
-23
-2
#5
11
lose
-11
-34
-3
#6
11
win
+10
-24
-2
#7
11
lose
-11
-35
-3
#8
11
win
+10
-25
-2
#9
11
lose
-11
-36
-3
#10
11
lose
-11
-47
-4
#11
11
lose
-11
-58
-5
#12
11
lose
-11
-69
-6
#13
11
win
+10
-59
-5
#14
11
lose
-11
-70
-6
#15
11
win
+10
-60
-5
#16
11
lose
-11
-71
-6
#17
11
lose
-11
-82
-7
Because you lose $81, which breaks the -7 units barrier, you now must move up to Level 2 and bump up your bets to $22 each. At this point, you try to win back only your losses, plus 20%, or a total of $100 or 9 units, the Recoup Numbers for Level 2. A recap of your play on Level 1, with 5 wins and 12 losses:
Level
Bets
W-L
$ Profit
Units $ Total
Units Total
Level 1
$11
5-12
-82
-7
-7
-82
Now, betting $22 a game, you put together a healthy string of 38 wins and 30 losses. This achieves your Recoup Numbers, erasing your losses from Level 1 and posting a profit of about 20%, or $18. So, overall, you are 43-42 (or 51%) with a positive Bankroll after 85 wagers, and you earn your way back down to Level 1. Just so you know, had you been betting a straight $11 per wager and gone 43 wins and 42 losses, you’d be -$32.
A recap of your play on Levels 1 and 2 picking 43 winners and 42 losers:
Level
Bets
W-L
$ Profit
Units $ Total
Units Total
Level 1
$11
5-12
-82
-7
-82
-7
Level 2
$22
38-30 +100
+9
+18
+2
For argument’s sake, let’s say you don’t do as well on Level 2, winning 4 bets and losing 10. That puts you down another $140, which goes over the Level 2 Trigger Numbers of -$132 or -12 units, so you must go up to Level 3 and begin betting $44 a game. Hopefully you won’t suffer through many losing streaks of 9 wins and 22 losses, but let’s see how much of a hole that puts you in. A recap of your play on Levels 1 and 2, picking 9 winners and 22 losers:
Level
Bets
W-L
$ Profit
Units $ Total
Units Total
Level 1
$11
5-12
-82
-7+
-82
-7
Level 2
$22
4-10
-140
-12+
-222
-20
Keep in mind that since you’re now on Level 3 making $44 bets, your Recoup Numbers are $160 or 15 units, meaning your goal is to win back your $140 in losses plus a 20% profit, not to try and win back all $222 you’ve lost at once. By going a respectable 12 wins and 7 losses, you net $172 in profit, earning your way back to Level 2. A recap of your play on Levels 1, 2 and 3, picking 20 winners and 33 losers: Level Bets W-L $ Profit Units $ Total Units Total
Level 1
$11
5-12
-82
-7+
-82
-7+
Level 2
$22
4-10
-140
-12+
-222
-20+
Level 3
$44
12-7
+172
+15+ -50
-5+
Now, with a record of 21 wins and 29 losses, you’re at just -$50 and about -5 units. Your goal once again on Level 2 is to achieve your Recoup Numbers of $100 or 9 units, enough to win back your $82 in losses, plus 20%, and earn your way back to Level 1.
Tips 1) The 4-Level Accumulation System works for those “action” players looking to play every day, grinding out steady but modest profits over the long haul. 2) Your actual running Bankroll totals won’t always divide evenly into Trigger Numbers or Recoup Numbers, so I find it best to wait until you go slightly OVER Trigger Numbers in units before moving up to the next Level (in our first example above, for instance, you moved up after losing $82, which is slightly more than 7 units yet fewer than 8). As for Recoup Numbers, you may choose to move down to the previous Level even though you are slightly UNDER the preset unit total, as long as you’ve recouped your dollar losses are happy with your small profit. 3) Remember, track your units and winnings separately for every Level, not cumulatively. 4) If you are betting against the moneyline and/or with odds worse than 11-10, make sure you wager enough to win the payouts associated with your Series Amounts. In other words, if you are betting on the Yankees -150, instead of wagering $11 to win $10, you must wager $15 to win $10. 5) Related to Tip #4, for any wager with odds worse than 11-10 that you lose, you must add the additional losses, in this case $4 ($15 $11 = $4), to the payout of what would be your next normal Series Amount, in this case making your next Series amount $15 ($11 + $4 = $15 payout so the next Series amount at 11-10 odds would be $15).
6) Don’t forget to also add any money paid to a professional handicapper for his picks to your Series Amounts in the same way you add losses at worse than 11-10 odds (as explained in Tip #4). Keep in mind that if you pay $25 for 5 picks, you must add only $5 to each Series Amount, assuming you run 5 Series that day. In other words, divide the handicapper’s fee among the total number of picks you play that day. 7) As always, it’s imperative to keep strict track of your 4-Level Accumulation System bets using copies of the Chart provided at the end of this chapter.
The Trigger and Recoup Numbers For those whose Personal Betting Bankrolls make them comfortable wagering larger amounts, I’m including several other Series Amounts, with their corresponding Trigger and Recoup Numbers, to aid you in knowing when to move from 1 Level to the next. Upon inspection, you’ll notice a trend: No matter what Series you are playing, your Trigger Number for Level 1 is always 7 units; your Trigger Number for Level 2 is always 12 units and your Recoup Number is always 9 units; your Trigger Number for Level 3 is always 20 units and your Recoup Number is always 15 units; and your Trigger Number for Level 4 is always 24 units and your Recoup Number is always 24 units. Here are several more Series:
22-22-22-22-22-22-22 44-44-44-44-44-44 88-88-88-88-88 132-132-132-132.
Level Bets # Amount
Trigger # In Units*
Trigger # in Dollars*
Recoup # in Units**
Recoup # in Dollars**
1
$22
-7
-$154
NA
NA
2
$44
-12
-$264
9
$185
3
$88
-20
-$440
15
$317
4
$132
-24
-$528
24
$528
* When you lose this number of dollars or units in any 1 Level, this “triggers” your move up to the next Level. ** You must win back (or “recoup”) this number of units or dollars (including 20% profit) before earning your way back to the previous Level. 33-33-33-33-33-33-33 66-66-66-66-66-66 132-132-132-132-132 198-198-198-198.
Level Bets # Amount
Trigger # In Units*
Trigger # in Dollars*
Recoup # in Units**
Recoup # in Dollars**
1
-7
-$231
NA
NA
$33
2
$66
-12
-$396
9
$277
3
$132
-20
-$660
15
$475
4
$198
-24
-$792
24
$792
* When you lose this number of dollars or units in any 1 Level, this “triggers” your move up to the next Level. ** You must win back (or “recoup”) this number of units or dollars (including 20% profit) before earning your way back to the previous Level.
55-55-55-55-55-55-55 110-110-110-110-110-110 220-220-220-220-220 330-330-330-330.
Level Bets # Amount
Trigger # In Units*
Trigger # in Dollars*
Recoup # in Units**
Recoup # in Dollars**
1
$55
-7
-$385
NA
NA
2
$110
-12
-$660
9
$462
3
$220
-20
-$1,100
15
$792
4 $330 -24 -$1,320 24 $1,320 * When you lose this number of dollars or units in any 1 Level, this “triggers” your move up to the next Level. ** You must win back (or “recoup”) this number of units or dollars (including 20% profit) before earning your way back to the previous Level.
Crunching the Numbers Because a single Series in The 4-Level Accumulation System can go on for weeks, months or even years, there’s little point in taking up 50 pages proving that it’s extremely hard to lose all your money with this Program. Suffice to say that you must lose a whopping cumulative total of $693 or 63 units to end the Series. Remember, since you add dollars and units for every win, your Bankroll should stay intact for a long time, perhaps indefinitely. For example, if you pick 0 winners and 22 losers and end your first Series without a win, you still have $907 left of your Personal Betting Bankroll. This means you can go another 0 wins and 22 losses and still not go bust after picking not 1 winner in 44 tries. Getting the idea of how hard it is to lose your whole Bankroll with this Program? In fact, you must go 0 wins and 58 losses to lose all your money. If you ever hit a streak like that, perhaps it’s time to pick a different diversion than sports gambling.
Summing It All Up The simple goal of The 4-Level Accumulation System is to amass steady profits over a long period of time by gradually raising and lowering wager amounts according to your current Bankroll. When losses build up, you raise your bet amounts in order to erase them plus post a 20% profit, then return to the previous wager amounts. This allows you to accrue small but steady profits for weeks, months and even years while putting even a portion of your Bankroll in little jeopardy.
Here’s a quick overview of The 4-Level Accumulation System, which I recommend you use to play everyday “action” bets or to protect a modest Bankroll over long periods: 1) To start this Series, make 1 or more wagers in the predetermined Level 1 amount of $11, to use our example Series Amount. 2) Keep betting $11 on games and rolling the profits back into your Bankroll until you lose $77, or 7 units, the Trigger Numbers for Level 1. 3) If you lose $77 or 7 units, up your wagers to the Level 2 amount of $22 apiece and keep betting, rolling your winnings back into your Bankroll. 4) Once you have reached your Recoup Numbers on Level 2, meaning you have erased your $77 in losses and added a profit of about 20% by winning $100 or 9 units, reduce your wagers back to the Level 1 amount of $11 apiece. 5) Should you hit the Trigger Numbers of -$132 or -12 units while betting $22 per play on Level 2, raise your wagers to the Level 3 amount of $44, and keep betting, rolling your winnings back into your Bankroll. 6) When you reach your Recoup Numbers on Level 3, meaning you have erased your $132 in losses and added a profit of about 20% by winning $160 or 15 units, reduce your wagers back to the Level 2 amount of $22 apiece. Or, if you hit the Trigger Numbers on Level 3 by losing yet another $220 or 20 units, raise your bets to the Level 4 amount of $66 apiece. 7) Should you continue an unlikely extended losing streak and reach your Trigger Numbers on Level 4 of -$264 or -24 units, your Series is over. 8) Otherwise, keep betting on each Level until your preset Trigger Numbers prompt you to move up a Level and bet a higher wager amount, or until your Recoup Numbers prompt you to move back down to the previous Level and lower your wagers. 9) Be sure to track all your bets carefully using the handy Chart at the end of this chapter. 10) Every month or so, evaluate your Personal Betting Bankroll, and increase your 4 Level amounts if you feel comfortable doing so.
