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Kentucky Derby 144
BETTING GUIDE Produced by Courier Journal
1.FIRENZE FIRE Why he can win: Because you believe in miracles? Why he won’t: He seems to have very little desire to race farther than a mile, and he’s nished fourth in each of his la st two races. He may well be the longest shot on the board. Morning-line odds: 50-1. Last time out: Fourth in Wood Memorial — 11 lengths behind Vino Rosso — on April 7 at Aqueduct. Running style: Closer. Owner: Mr. Amore Stable (Ron Lombardi). Trainer: Jason Servis. Jockey: Manuel Franco.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 4 2017 5 Career 9
1st 1 3 4
2nd 1 0 1
3rd 0 0 0
Earnings $220,000 $449,100 $669,100
2nd 1 2 3
3rd 2 0 2
Earnings $197,200 $428,020 $625,220
2nd 0 0 0
3rd 0 1 1
Earnings $248,080 $89,200 $337,280
2. FREE DROP BILLY Why he can win: He’s nished in the money in 7 of 8 career starts, the only bad race coming in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (ninth place). With stablemate Promises Fullled expected to set fast early fractions, he gures to the set-up he needs to make a late charge. Why he won’t: His career-best Beyer Speed Figure — 90 in the Holy Bull — indicates he’s just not fast enough to to compete with the best best horses in this eld. Morning-line odds: 30-1. Last time out: Finished fourth but was bumped to third in the Blue Grass — 4 lengths behind Good Magic — on April 7 at Keeneland. Running style: Middle of the pack early and makes a late run. Owner: Albaugh Family Stables (Dennis Albaugh and Jaso n Loustch). Trainer: Dale Romans. Jockey: Robby Albarado.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 3 2017 5 Career 8
1st 0 2 2
3. PROMISES FULFILLED expected to be leading the way when the eld enters the rst Why he can win: He’s expected turn, and he’s found a way to turn that strategy into three victories in ve career starts. Maybe jockey Corey Lanerie can save enough for the stretch run. Why he won’t: It’s far more likely Promises Fullled meets a similar fate as his Florida Derby performance, performance, when he led early before fading to last place. Morning-line odds: 30-1. Last time out: Ninth in the Florida Derby — 35 lengths behind winner Audible — on March 31 at Gulfstream Park. Running style: Straight to the front, likely will set the early pace in the Derby. But how far can he go? Owner: Robert Baron. Trainer: Dale Romans. Jockey: Corey Lanerie.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 2 2017 3 Career 5
1st 1 2 3
4. FLAMEAWAY Why he can win: He has ve career victories, the most of any horse in the eld, and has won on synthetic, turf and dirt surfaces. Don’t be surprised to see trainer Mark Casse doing a rain dance this week as Flameaway is 2 for 2 on a wet track. Why he won’t: Only two Canadian-breds have won the Derby — Northern Dancer (1964) and Sunny’s Halo (1983). Morning-line odds: 30-1. Last time out: Finished second — 1 ½ lengths behind Good Magic — in the Blue Grass on April 7 at Keeneland. Running style: Near the front early and could be among the pace-setters in the Derby. Owner: John Oxley. Trainer: Mark Casse. Jockey: Jose Lezcano.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 4 2017 5 Career 9
1st 2 3 5
2nd 2 0 2
3rd 0 0 0
Earnings $450,760 $254,074 $704,834
2nd 0 0 0
3rd 0 1 1
Earnings $803,520 $79,400 $882,920
2nd 0 2 2
3rd 1 0 1
Earnings $638,400 $1,216,600 $1,855,000
5. AUDIBLE Why he can win: Audible has displayed an impressive versatility, winning the Holy Bull while near the front early and capturing the Florida Derby after rallying from the back. Why he won’t: None of these have raced 1 ¼ miles, but there are serious questions about whether Audible can get the distance because of his pedigree. His sire Into Mischief and dam Blue Devil Bel have been more successful producing winners at shorter distances. Morning-line odds: 8-1. Last time out: Won the Grade 1 Florida Derby by 3 lengths over Hofburg on March 31 at Gulfstream Park. Running style: Middle of the pack, presses the pace. Owners: China Horse Club International (Ah Khing Teo), Head of Plains Partners (Sol Kumin), Starlight Racing (Jack Wolf) and WinStar Farm (Kenny Troutt). Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Javier Castellano.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 2 2017 3 Career 5
1st 2 2 4
6. GOOD MAGIC Why he can win: The third start of his 2-year-old campaign was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which Good Magic won and parlayed into the Eclipse Award for top juvenile male. The Derby will be his third start as a 3-year-old, and he looks to be on a similar path. Why he won’t: His Beyer Speed Figure numbers this year are a cut below the best in the eld. The Blue Grass victory was nice, but how strong was that eld? Morning-line odds: 12-1. Last time out: Won the Grade 2 Blue Grass by 1 ½ lengths over Flameaway on April 7 at Keeneland. Running style: Has some early speed but generally a middle-of-the pack runner. Owners: e Five Racing Thoroughbreds (Bob, Kristine, Cassidy, Riley and Delaney Edwards) and Stonestreet Stables (Barbara Banke). Trainer: Chad Brown. Jockey: Jose Ortiz.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 2 2017 3 Career 5
1st 1 1 2
7. JUSTIFY Why he can win: He’s 3 for 3 and has won by a combined 19 lengths. His 107 Beyer Speed Figure in the Santa Anita Derby is the highest of any horse in the Kentuck Kentucky y Derby eld. He’s s going against two longstanding Derby trends. Apollo in 1882 is the Why he won’t: He’ only horse to win without racing as a 2-year-old. Regret (1915) and Big Brown (2008) are the only horses to win the Derby with just three career starts entering the race. Morning-line odds: 3-1. Last time out: Won Santa Anita Derby by 3 lengths over Bolt d’Oro on April 7. Running style: Likes to be up front early. Could be among the Derby pace-setters. Owners: China Horse Club International (Ah Khing Teo), Head of Plains Partners (Sol Kumin), Starlight Racing (Jack Wolf) and WinStar Farm (Kenny Troutt). Trainer: Bob Baffert. Jockey: Mike Smith.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 3 2017 0 Career 3
1st 3 0 3
2nd 0 0 0
3rd 0 0 0
Earnings $666,000 $0 $666,000
2nd 2 1 3
3rd 0 1 1
Earnings $210,600 $123,637 $334,237
2nd 1 0 1
3rd 0 0 0
Earnings $223,800 $4,150 $227,950
8. LONE SAILOR Why he can win: He’s coming off the best race of his career, nishing just a neck behind Noble Indy in the Louisiana Derby and posting a solid Beyer Speed Figure of 95. He’ll be a sentimental favorite as owner Gayle Benson is the widow of Tom Benson, the former New Orleans Saints owner who died in March at the age of 90. Why he won’t: He passed Noble Indy in the stretch of the Louisiana Derby and couldn’t close the deal. Since breaking his maiden in September September,, he hasn’t won a race in six tries. Morning-line odds: 50-1. Last time out: Second in the Louisiana Derby — a neck behind Noble Indy — on March 24 at Fair Grounds. Running style: Closer. Owner: G M B Racing (Gayle Benson). Trainer: Tom Amoss. Jockey: James Graham.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 3 2017 5 Career 8
1st 0 1 1
9. HOFBURG Why he can win: With just three career starts, he seems to have plenty of room to improve after his second-place showing in the Florida Derby. Trainer Trainer Bill Mott isn’t one to enter the Kentucky Derby with a subpar contender. contender. Why he won’t: With just three career starts, does he have enough seasoning to compete against 19 other horses. He seems to have reached “wise-guy” status, which usually is a death knell. Morning-line odds: 20-1. Last time out: Second place in Florida Derby — 3 lengths behind Audible — on March 31 at Gulfstream. Running style: Hasn’t displayed much early speed in his three races. Owner: Juddmonte Farms (Prince Khalid Abdullah). Trainer: Bill Mott. Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 2 2017 1 Career 3
1st 1 0 1
10. MY BOY JACK Why he can win: With 10 career races, he has more experience than any horse in the eld. He’s won at three different tracks (Santa Anita, Oaklawn and Keeneland) and gures to He’s get the fast early pace he needs to take advantage of his closing style. Why he won’t: The Derby will be his third race in three states in seven weeks. While that was the norm not too long ago, critics will wonder what My Boy Jack has left in the tank. Morning-line odds: 30-1. Last time out: Won the Lexington by a head over Telekinesis on April 14 at Keeneland. Running style: Deep closer. Owners: Don’t Tell My Wife Stables (Kirk Godbey and Rob Slack) and Monomoy Stables (Sol Kumin). Trainer: Keith Desormeaux. Jockey: Kent Desormeaux.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 4 2017 6 Career 10
1st 2 1 3
2nd 0 3 3
3rd 2 0 2
Earnings $532,000 $113,145 $645,145
2nd 1 0 1
3rd 0 1 1
Earnings $440,000 $576,000 $1,016,000
2nd 1 0 1
3rd 0 1 1
Earnings $381,800 $213,880 $595,680
11. BOLT D’ORO Why he can win: There’s little question he’s one of the most talented 3-year-olds in the country, and he already has two Grade 1 victories and a Grade 2 win. He’s a battle-test colt who has been through the wars. Why he won’t: What does he have left after a pair of grueling battles at Santa Anita during the prep season? He was placed rst after McKinzie was disqualied in the San Felipe, which may have been the most exciting prep race of the year. And as hard as he tried, he couldn’t catch Justify in the Santa Anita. Morning-line odds: 8-1. Last time out: Second place — 3 lengths behind Justify — in Santa Anita Derby on April 7. Running style: Likes to be near the front early, though not on the lead. A stalker. Owner: Mick Ruis. Trainer: Mick Ruis. Jockey: Victor Espinoza.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 2 2017 4 Career 6
1st 1 3 4
12. ENTICED Why he can win: He already owns a graded-stakes victory at Churchill Downs, capturing the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Jockey Club last November. November. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is one of the nice guys in the business, and perhaps the “racing gods” are ready to smile on him. He’s s owned by a Godolphin group that has enjoyed no luck in the Derby, Why he won’t: He’ nishing outside the money in all 10 attempts. The best nish was by Frosted in 2015 (fourth), and Thunder Snow barely got out of the gate last year before being pulled up. Morning-line odds: 30-1. Last time out: Second place — 3 lengths behind Vino Rosso — in Wood Memorial on April 7 at Aqueduct. Running style: Usually near the front early, pressing the pace. Owner: Godolphin (Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum). Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin. Seven Derby starters. Jockey: Junior Alvarado.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 3 2017 3 Career 6
1st 1 2 3
13. BRAV BRAVAZO AZO Why he can win: Maybe he can regain the magic from the Risen Star, when he beat Snapper Sinclair by a nose at 21-1 odds, earning enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won four of these. Why he won’t: He was a dismal eighth in the Louisiana Derby, and Lukas has a dmitted Bravazo will have to take major steps forward to be a contender Saturday. Morning-line odds: 50-1. Last time out: Finished eighth — 21 lengths behind winner Noble Indy — in the Louisiana Derby on March 24 at Fair Grounds. Running style: A stalker, near the front early. Owner: Calumet Farm (Brad Kelley). Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas. Jockey: Luis Contreras.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 3 2017 5 Career 8
1st 2 1 3
2nd 0 1 1
3rd 0 1 1
Earnings $295,600 $140,928 $436,528
2nd 0 1 1
3rd 0 0 0
Earnings $1,254,485 $706,652 $1,961,137
2nd 0 2 2
3rd 0 1 1
Earnings $186,000 $108,000 $294,000
14. MENDELSSOHN Why he can win: Perhaps no horse was more impressive in his nal prep race than Mendelssohn, who won the UAE Derby by a whopping 18 1/2 lengths. He was purchased for $3 million for a reason, and trainer Aidan O’Brien is regarded as one of the world’s best. Why he won’t: UAE Derby winners have an aw ful history in the Kentucky Derby, going 0 for 9 since 2002. The best nish was by China Visit in 2000 (sixth). How will he handle the quarantine at Churchill Downs after his long trip from overseas? Morning-line odds: 5-1. Last time out: Won UAE Derby by 18 lengths over Rayya on March 31 at Meydan. Running style: Presses the pace. Tabor. Owners: Derrick Smith, Mrs. John Magnier and Michael Tabor. Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Jockey: Ryan Moore.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 2 2017 5 Career 7
1st 2 2 4
15. INSTILLED REGARD Hollendorfer was close to the upset last year w hen 40-1 Why he can win: Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer shot Battle of Midway nished third in the Kentucky Derby. Derby. Maybe he can pull off some more magic this year. Why he won’t: Back-to-back fourth-place nishes in the Risen Star and Santa Anita Derby do not inspire condence condence.. Morning-line odds: 50-1. Last time out: Fourth in Santa Anita Derby — 10 lengths behind Justify — on April 7. Running style: Stalker who is usually near the front early. Owner: Oxo Equine (Lawrence Best). Hollendorfer.. Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Joel Rosario. Jockey:
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 3 2017 4 Career 7
1st 1 1 2
16. MAGNUM MOON perfect in four career starts and has a trainer in Todd Pletcher who Why he can win: He’s perfect knows how to win this. His drifting issues down the stretch aside, the Arkansas Derby performance was impressive impressive.. Why he won’t: He must overcome the “Curse of Apollo.” Magnum Moon did not race as a 2-year-old, and Apollo (in 1882) is the only horse to win the Derby after not racing at 2. Morning-line odds: 6-1. Last time out: Won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby by 4 lengths over Quip on April 14 at Oaklawn Park. Running style: Won the Arkansas Derby on the lead but more of a press-the-pace type. Owners: Lawana and Robert Low. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Luis Saez.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 4 2017 0 Career 4
1st 4 0 4
2nd 0 0 0
3rd 0 0 0
Earnings $1,177,800 $0 $1,177,800
2nd 1 2 3
3rd 1 1 2
Earnings $280,000 $472,000 $752,000
2nd 0 0 0
3rd 1 0 1
Earnings $572,500 $48,000 $620,500
17. SOLOMINI Why he can win: He’s never nished out of the money in six career races, and he has stellar connections in trainer Bob Baffert and owner Zayat Stables. He beat the highly regarded McKinzie last December before being disqualied to third after a bump. Why he won’t: Baffert has said Solomini possesses just one speed, and that hasn’t been fast enough to compete with the best in this eld. Morning-line odds: 30-1. Last time out: Third in the Arkansas Derby — 4 ¼ lengths behind Magnum Moon — on April 14 at Oaklawn. Running style: Has displayed different styles but generally comes from off the pace. Owner: Zayat Stables (Ahmed Zayat), Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Jockey: Flavien Prat.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 2 2017 4 Career 6
1st 0 1 1
18. VINO ROSSO Why he can win: Coming off the best race of his life when he won the Wood Memorial by 3 lengths. Ace jockey John Velazquez had his pick of Todd Pletcher’s four hopefuls, and Vino Rosso was the pick. Pletcher is condent he will relish the added distance. Why he won’t: After going 2 for 2 as a 2-year-old, he was disappointing at Tampa Bay Downs earlier this year with a third-place nish in the Sam Davis and a fourth-place in the Tampa Bay Derby. Is the Wood Memorial victory enough to win back your trust? Morning-line odds: 12-1. Last time out: Won the Grade 2 Wood Memorial by 3 lengths over Enticed on April 7 at Aqueduct. Running style: Pressed the pace early in his career, now seems comfortable as a closer. Owners: Repole Stable (Mike Repole) and St. Elias Stable (Vincent Viola). Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: John Velazquez.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 3 2017 2 Career 5
1st 1 2 3
19. NOBLE INDY Pletcher’s foursome, and Why he can win: He’ll probably have the highest odds of Todd Pletcher’s sometimes the overlooked horse can be the best. Example: Real Quiet winning at 8-1 odds for trainer Bob Baffert in 1998 when his Indian Charlie was the favorite. favorite. layoff since the Why he won’t: How much rust has he accumulated during the six-week layoff Louisiana Derby? Since Needles won in 1956, Animal Kingdom (2011) is the only horse to win the Kentucky Derby after a six-week layoff. Morning-line odds: 30-1. Last time out: Won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby by a neck over Lone Sailor on March 24 at Fair Grounds. Running style: Likes to be near the front early. Troutt) and Repole Stable (Mike Repole). Owners: WinStar Farm (Kenny Troutt) Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Florent Geroux.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 3 2017 1 Career 4
1st 2 1 3
2nd 0 0 0
3rd 1 0 1
Earnings $666,400 $25,200 $691,600
2nd 2 1 3
3rd 1 0 1
Earnings $270,000 $118,550 $388,550
20. COMBATANT Why he can win: He has a career record of 1-3-1 in seven starts and never has nished worse than fourth. Maybe he’ll nally get a favorable post position in the Derby, as he’s he’s drawn on the outside in his past three prep races at Oaklawn Park. His only career win came last October at Churchill. Why he won’t: He’s the quintessential “close but no cigar” horse. Since winning at Churchill, he’s he’s nished second, second, second, third and fourth. Morning-line odds: 50-1. Last time out: Fourth in Arkansas Derby — 4 ¼ lengths behind Magnum Moon — on April 14 at Oaklawn Park. Running style: Closer. Owners: Winchell Thoroughbreds (Ron Winchell) and Willis Horton Racing. Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
CAREER RECORD
Year Starts 2018 4 2017 3 Career 7
1st 0 1 1
