Electric Power Distribution Reliability

Electric Power Distribution Reliability Second Edition

© 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

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POWER ENGINEERING Series Editor

H. Lee Willis

Quanta Technology Raleigh, North Carolina Advisory Editor

Muhammad H. Rashid University of West Florida Pensacola, Florida

1. Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, H. Lee Willis 2. Transmission Network Protection: Theory and Practice, Y. G. Paithankar 3. Electrical Insulation in Power Systems, N. H. Malik, A. A. Al-Arainy, and M. I. Qureshi 4. Electrical Power Equipment Maintenance and Testing, Paul Gill 5. Protective Relaying: Principles and Applications, Second Edition, J. Lewis Blackburn 6. Understanding Electric Utilities and De-Regulation, Lorrin Philipson and H. Lee Willis 7. Electrical Power Cable Engineering, William A. Thue 8. Electric Systems, Dynamics, and Stability with Artificial Intelligence Applications, James A. Momoh and Mohamed E. El-Hawary 9. Insulation Coordination for Power Systems, Andrew R. Hileman 10. Distributed Power Generation: Planning and Evaluation, H. Lee Willis and Walter G. Scott 11. Electric Power System Applications of Optimization, James A. Momoh 12. Aging Power Delivery Infrastructures, H. Lee Willis, Gregory V. Welch, and Randall R. Schrieber 13. Restructured Electrical Power Systems: Operation, Trading, and Volatility, Mohammad Shahidehpour and Muwaffaq Alomoush 14. Electric Power Distribution Reliability, Richard E. Brown 15. Computer-Aided Power System Analysis, Ramasamy Natarajan


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16. Power System Analysis: Short-Circuit Load Flow and Harmonics, J. C. Das 17. Power Transformers: Principles and Applications, John J. Winders, Jr. 18. Spatial Electric Load Forecasting: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, H. Lee Willis 19. Dielectrics in Electric Fields, Gorur G. Raju 20. Protection Devices and Systems for High-Voltage Applications, Vladimir Gurevich 21. Electrical Power Cable Engineering, Second Edition, William Thue 22. Vehicular Electric Power Systems: Land, Sea, Air, and Space Vehicles, Ali Emadi, Mehrdad Ehsani, and John Miller 23. Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, Second Edition, H. Lee Willis 24. Power System State Estimation: Theory and Implementation, Ali Abur 25. Transformer Engineering: Design and Practice, S.V. Kulkarni and S. A. Khaparde 26. Power System Capacitors, Ramasamy Natarajan 27. Understanding Electric Utilities and De-regulation: Second Edition, Lorrin Philipson and H. Lee Willis 28. Control and Automation of Electric Power Distribution Systems, James Northcote-Green and Robert G. Wilson 29. Protective Relaying for Power Generation Systems, Donald Reimert 30. Protective Relaying: Principles and Applications, Third Edition, J. Lewis Blackburn and Thomas J. Domin 31. Electric Power Distribution Reliability, Second Edition, Richard E. Brown


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Electric Power Distribution Reliability Second Edition

Richard E. Brown

Boca Raton London New York

CRC Press is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business


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CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-8493-7567-5 (Hardcover) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint. Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright.com (http://www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com


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Contents

Series Introduction

xi

Preface

xiii

Author

xvii

1.

DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS 1.1. Generation, Transmission, and Distribution 1.2. Distribution Substations 1.3. Primary Distribution Systems 1.4. Secondary Distribution Systems 1.5. Load Characteristics 1.6. Distribution Operations 1.7. Study Questions References

1 1 8 15 26 28 33 38 38

2.

RELIABILITY METRICS AND INDICES 2.1. Power Quality, Reliability, and Availability 2.2. Reliability Indices 2.3. Customer Cost of Reliability 2.4. Reliability Targets 2.5. History of Reliability Indices 2.6. Study Questions References

41 41 51 82 90 97 102 102 vii


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3.

INTERRUPTION CAUSES 3.1. Equipment Failures 3.2. Animals 3.3. Severe Weather 3.4. Trees 3.5. Human Factors 3.6. Most Common Causes 3.7. Study Questions References

107 107 127 133 150 155 157 159 159

4.

COMPONENT MODELING 4.1. Component Reliability Parameters 4.2. Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves 4.3. Probability Distribution Functions 4.4. Fitting Curves to Measured Data 4.5. Component Reliability Data 4.6. Study Questions References

163 163 165 167 176 182 188 188

5.

SYSTEM MODELING 5.1. System Events and System States 5.2. Event Independence 5.3. Network Modeling 5.4. Markov Modeling 5.5. Analytical Simulation for Radial Systems 5.6. Analytical Simulation for Network Systems 5.7. Monte Carlo Simulation 5.8. Other Methodologies 5.9. Study Questions References

191 192 195 196 200 206 232 241 258 261 262

6.

SYSTEM ANALYSIS 6.1. Model Reduction 6.2. System Calibration 6.3. System Analysis 6.4. Improving Reliability 6.5. Storm Hardening 6.6. Conversion of Overhead to Underground 6.7. Economic Analysis 6.8. Marginal Benefit-to-Cost Analysis 6.9. Comprehensive Example 6.10. Study Questions References

265 265 272 277 285 301 307 317 325 333 356 357


Contents

ix

7.

SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION 7.1. Overview of Optimization 7.2. Discrete Optimization Methods 7.3. Knowledge-Based Systems 7.4. Optimization Applications 7.5. Final Thoughts on Optimization 7.6. Study Questions References

361 361 371 385 392 418 421 422

8.

AGING INFRASTRUCTURE 8.1. Equipment Aging 8.2. Equipment Age Profiles 8.3. Population Aging Behavior 8.4. Age and Increasing Failure Rates 8.5. Inspection, Repair, and Replacement 8.6. State of the Industry 8.7. Final Thoughts 8.8. Study Questions References

425 425 426 428 432 438 441 450 451 452


Series Introduction Power engineering is the oldest and most traditional of the various areas within electrical engineering, yet no other facet of modern technology is currently undergoing a more dramatic revolution in technology or business structure. Perhaps the most fundamental change taking place in the electric utility industry is the move toward a quantitative basis for the management of service reliability. Traditionally, electric utilities achieved satisfactory customer service quality through the use of more or less “one size fits all situations” standards and criteria that experience had shown would lead to no more than an acceptable level of trouble on their system. Tried and true, these methods succeeded in achieving acceptable service quality. But evolving industry requirements changed the relevance of these methods in two ways. First, the needs of modern electric energy consumers changed. Even into the early 1980s, very short (less than 10 second) interruptions of power had minimal impact on most consumers. Then, utilities routinely performed field switching of feeders in the early morning hours, creating 10-second interruptions of power flow that most consumers would not even notice. But where the synchronous-motor alarm clocks of the 1960s and 1970s would just fall a few seconds behind during such interruptions, modern digital clocks, microelectronic equipment and computers cease working altogether. Homeowners of the 1970s woke up the next morning—not even knowing or caring—that their alarm clocks were a few seconds behind. Homeowners today wake up minutes or hours late, to blinking digital displays throughout their home. In this and in many xi


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other ways, the widespread use of digital equipment and automated processes has redefined the term “acceptable service quality” and has particularly increased the importance of interruption frequency as a measure of utility performance. Second, while the traditional standards-driven paradigm did achieve satisfactory service quality in most cases, it did not do so at the lowest possible cost. In addition, it had no mechanism for achieving reliability targets in a demonstrated least-cost manner. As a result, in the late 20th century, electric utility management, public utility regulators, and energy consumers alike realized there had to be a more economically effective way to achieve satisfactory reliability levels of electric service. This was to engineer the system to provide the type of reliability needed at the lowest possible cost, creating a need for rigorous, quantitative reliability analysis and engineering methods—techniques capable of “engineering reliability into a system” in the same way that capacity or voltage regulation targets had traditionally been targeted and designed to. Many people throughout the industry contributed to the development of what are today the accepted methods of reliability analysis and predictive design. But none contributed as much to either theory, or practice, as Richard Brown. His work is the foundation of modern power distribution reliability engineering. It is therefore with great pride that I welcome this book as the newest addition to the CRC Press series on Power Engineering. This is all the more rewarding to me because for the past decade Richard Brown has been one of my most trusted coworkers and research collaborators, and a good friend. Dr. Brown’s book lays out the rules and structure for modern power distribution reliability engineering in a rigorous yet accessible manner. While scrupulously correct in theory and mathematics, his book provides a wealth of practical experience and useful knowledge that can be applied by any electric power engineer to improve power distribution reliability performance. Thus, Electric Power Distribution Reliability fits particularly well into the theme of the Power Engineering series, which focuses on providing modern power technology in a context of proven, practical application—books useful as references as well as for self-study and classroom use. I have no doubt that this book will be the reference in power delivery reliability engineering for years to come. Good work, Richard. H. Lee Willis


Preface

Distribution reliability is one of the most important topics in the electric power industry due to its high impact on the cost of electricity and its high correlation with customer satisfaction. The breadth and depth of issues relating to this subject span nearly every distribution company department including procurement, operations, engineering, planning, rate making, customer relations, and regulatory. Due in large part to its all-encompassing nature, distribution reliability has been difficult for utilities to address in a holistic manner. Most departments, if they address reliability at all, do so in isolation without considering how their actions may relate to those in different parts of the company—an understandable situation since there has been no single reference that covers all related issues and explains their interrelationships. This book is an attempt to fill this void by serving as a comprehensive tutorial and reference book covering all major topics related to distribution reliability. Each subject has been extensively researched and referenced with the intent of presenting a balance of theory, practical knowledge, and practical applications. After reading this book, readers will have a basic understanding of distribution reliability issues and will know how these issues have affected typical utilities in the past. Further, readers will be knowledgeable about techniques capable of addressing reliability issues and will have a basic feel for the results that can be expected from their proper application. Electric Power Distribution Reliability is intended for engineering professionals interested in the topic described by its title. Utility distribution planners xiii


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and reliability engineers will find it of greatest use, but it also contains valuable information for design engineers, dispatchers, operations personnel, and maintenance personnel. Because of its breadth, this book may also find use with distribution company directors and executives, as well as with state regulatory authorities. It is intended to be a scholarly work and is suitable for use with senior or graduate level instruction as well as for self-instruction. This book is divided into eight chapters. Although each is a self-contained topic, the book is written so that each chapter builds upon the knowledge of prior chapters. As such, this book should be read through sequentially upon first encounter. Terminology and context introduced in prior chapters are required knowledge to fully comprehend and assimilate subsequent topics. After an initial reading, this book will serve well as a refresher and reference volume and has a detailed index to facilitate the quick location of specific material. The first chapter, “Distribution Systems,” presents fundamental concepts, terminology, and symbology that serve as a foundation of knowledge for reliability-specific topics. It begins by describing the function of distribution systems in the overall electric power system. It continues by describing the component and system characteristics of substations, feeders, and secondary systems. The chapter concludes by discussing issues associated with load characteristics and distribution operations. The second chapter, “Reliability Metrics and Indices,” discusses the various aspects of distribution reliability and defines terms that are frequently used later in the book. It begins at a high level by discussing power quality and its relationship to reliability. Standard reliability indices are then presented along with benchmark data and a discussion of their benefits and drawbacks. The chapter continues by discussing reliability from the customer perspective including the customer cost of interrupted electrical service and the customer surveys used to obtain this information. The chapter ends with a discussion of reliability targets and the industry trend towards performance-based rates, reliability guarantees, and customer choice. Remembering that reliability problems are caused by real events, Chapter 3 provides a comprehensive discussion of all major causes of customer interruptions. It begins by describing the most common types of equipment failures and their associated failure modes, incipient failure detection possibilities, and failure prevention strategies. It then discusses reliability issues associated with animals, presents animal data associated with reliability, and offers recommendations to mitigate and prevent animal problems. The chapter continues by discussing severe weather including wind, lightning, ice storms, heat storms, earthquakes, and fires. Human causes are the last interruption category addressed, including operating errors, vehicular accidents, dig-ins, and vandalism.


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To place all of this information in perspective, the chapter concludes by discussing the most common interruption causes experienced by typical utilities. The analytical section of this book begins in Chapter 4, “Component Modeling.” The chapter starts by defining the component reliability parameters that form the basis of all reliability models. It then discusses basic modeling concepts such as hazard functions, probability distribution functions, and statistics. It ends by providing component reliability data for a wide variety of distribution equipment, which can be used both as a benchmark for custom data or as generic data in lieu of custom data. The topic of component reliability modeling leads naturally into the next chapter, “System Modeling.” This chapter begins with a tutorial on basic system analysis concepts such as states, Venn diagrams, network modeling, and Markov modeling. The bulk of the chapter focuses on analytical and Monte Carlo simulation methods, which are the recommended approaches for most distribution system reliability assessment needs. Algorithms are presented with detail sufficient for the reader to implement models in computer software, and reflect all of the major system issues associated with distribution reliability. For completeness, the chapter concludes by presenting reliability analysis techniques commonly used in other fields and discusses their applicability to distribution systems. The sixth chapter, “System Analysis,” focuses on how to use the modeling concepts developed in the previous two chapters to improve system reliability. It begins with the practical issues of actually creating a system model, populating it with default data and calibrating it to historical data. It then presents techniques to analyze the system model including visualization, risk analysis, sensitivity analyses, root-cause analysis, and loading analysis. One of the most important topics of the book comes next: strategies to improve reliability and how to quantify their impact by incorporating them into component and system models. This includes the nontraditional topics of underground conversion and storm hardening. The chapter then discusses how to view reliability improvement projects from a value perspective by presenting the basics of economic analysis and the prioritization method of marginal benefit-to-cost analysis. The chapter concludes with a comprehensive example that shows how system analysis techniques can be applied to improve the reliability of an actual distribution system. Since most distribution companies would like to optimize the reliability of their distribution system, this book continues with a chapter on system optimization. It begins by discussing common misconceptions about optimization and continues by showing how to properly formulate an optimization problem. It then presents several optimization methods that are particularly suitable for distribution system reliability. Finally, the chapter presents several practical applications of reliability optimization and discusses potential barriers that might


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be encountered when attempting to implement a reliability optimization initiative that spans many distribution company departments and budgets. This book concludes with a chapter on aging infrastructure and the impact of aging infrastructure on reliability. It begins by discussing equipment and population aging, and when age can be used as a reasonable proxy for equipment condition. The chapter continues by discussing how failure rates increase as a function of age. This includes techniques to develop age-versus-failure models using data available at most utilities. The book concludes by presenting the state of the industry in terms of equipment age; US distribution systems are surprisingly old, are getting older, and will become less reliability as a result. As such, the topics covered in this book will become increasingly important in the next decade. Utilities will have to spend increasingly more money just to keep reliability from getting worse. Using the techniques described in this book, utilities can ensure that this reliability spending is done so that the highest level of reliability can be attained for the lowest possible cost. The second edition of Electric Power Distribution Reliability is the product of approximately fifteen years of effort in various aspects of electric power distribution reliability. I would like to thank the following people for teaching, collaborating, and supporting me during this time. In the academic world, I would like to thank Dr. Mani Venkata, Dr. Richard Christie, and Dr. Anil Pahwa for their insight, guidance and support. In industry, I would like to acknowledge the contributions and suggestions of my co-workers at with special thanks to Dr. Damir Novosel, Mr. Lee Willis, and Mr. Jim Burke, all IEEE Fellows. Last, I would like to offer special thanks to my wife Christelle and to our four children for providing the inspiration and support without which this book would not be possible. Richard E. Brown


Author Richard E. Brown is the Vice President of Operations and co-founder for Quanta Technology, a firm specializing in technical and management consulting for electric utilities. He has previously worked at Jacobs Engineering, ABB, and KEMA. During his career, Dr. Brown has developed several generations of reliability assessment software programs, has provided consulting services to most major utilities in the United States and many around the world, and has published more than 90 technical papers. In 2007, Dr. Brown was made an IEEE Fellow for “contributions to distribution system reliability and risk assessment.” He earned his BSEE, MSEE, and PhD degrees from the University of Washington in Seattle, and his MBA from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He is a registered professional engineer. Dr. Brown lives in Cary, North Carolina with his wife and four children.

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