INDUS INSTITUTE OF HIGHER EDUCATION KARACHI
“Impact of inflation on economic growth :an overview on Pakistan” [FINANCE THESIS] [IQRA IRSHAD] [B.B.A :08-A]
SUPERVISED BY : SIR NAWAZ AHMED
1
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Turnitin Originality Report “Impact of inflation on economic growth: an overview on Pakistan” By Iqra Irshad (ID- 5-2008 BBA-08A) • • •
Processed on 07-Feb-2012 10:26 PKT ID: 227954564 Word Count: 7336
Similarity Index 2% Similarity by Source Internet Sources: 1% Publications: 0% Student Papers: 1% Sources: 1
__________ _______________ ______ _ Javed Iqbal Focal Person Plagiarism Services
__________ ______________ ____ Nawaz Ahmed Thesis Supervisor IIHE
__________ _______________ _________ _____ _ Usman Ali HOD Business Administration
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Faculty of business administration
INDUS INSTITUTE OF HIGHER EDUCATION EDUCATION Karachi CERTIFICATE I am pleased to certify that Ms Iqra Irshad D/o Mohammad Irshad has satisfactorily carried out a research work, under my supervision on the topic of “impact of inflation on economic growth:an overview on pakistan”.
I further certify that her distinctive original research and her thesis is worthy of presentaton presentaton to the faculty faculty of management management sciences, sciences, INDUS INDUS INSTITUTE INSTITUTE OF HIGHER EDUCATION Karachi for the degree of B.B.A (FINANCE).
SUPERVISOR:
_________________________
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to thank Mr Nawaz Ahmed – my supervisor who has given me Many useful comments related to my topic. After his guidence I am able to complete my thesis through through his step step by step support support for my research research work.Also work.Also I would like to to thanks to Mr Javed Iqbal who checked my work on short short term notice and appreciat my work by both of persons persons also a lot of detailed detailed and valuable comments on this thesis. The same appreciations appreciations will be for members from my thesis group and for the teacher and members from my groups in course.
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DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to my parents who introduced me to the joy of reading from birth enabling such a study to take place today.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract………………………………………………………. 5 SECTION 1. Introduction…………………………………………………. 6 2. LiteratureReview……………………………………………. 14 2.1 empirical review…………………………………………….15 3. Hypothesis………………………………………………….. 30 4. Variables……………………………………………………..30 5. Model and frame work……………………………………… 30 6. Methodology……………………………………………….. 31 6.1 model specification and estimation technique…………….. 33 7. Results and discussions…………………………………….. 35 7.1 Data and summary output………………………………..... 36 8. Conclusions …….………………………………………….. .38 TABLES REFERENCES ………………………………………………. 40 APPENDIX……………………………………………………. 43
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ABSTRACT The thesis is to find out the impact of inflation on economic growth in Pakistan by using the data from 1950 to 2010. This thesis uses the regression linear model to find out the impact on gdp growth. This study is basis on manzoor hussain who,s findings are insignificant and also similar to singh (2003) which which recommands that the rising prices within 4 to 6 % is favorable for pakistan and central bank should keep the policies favorable for the growth. As my findings+ are insignificant that there is no impact of inflation on economic growth.
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INTRODUCTION : Last Last many many year year rese resear arch ch work work on econo economi mics cs has desc describ ribed ed many many reas reasons ons of relationship between rising price and economic increase. One major purpose of this research work after identify the rising price is bad thing to economic increase get the week points or effected points. Some research define a threshold rate of rising price above the economic increase is negative and significant significant due to rising price effects, while the positive level of economics increase is below level of threshold rate of rising price.
Even so, as the important results by the previous research work on many different purposes purposes across the countries these results results are shows that when the rising price is effect on economic increase there is no general agreement over the point.
This document described the major point is that using a regressing formula there is many possible reasons available of inflationary effects on the relationship between economic increase and financial sector development. In general macroeconomics holds that to promote economic increase the combination of low rising price and
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and medium term reaction of rising price, product increase and reducing investment on economic increase is negative.
The major aim of policymakers is low rate of rising price if rising price is a main blockage of promot promoting ing economic economic increase, increase, Even so what is the target target level of rising rising price is? How rising price low level is positive positive impact impact on financial financial development development and on economic increase? In the other way it is possible to obtain the threshold level of rising price point if a non-linear relationship found between rising price and economic increase, and what is the sign of relationship between rising price and economic increase would controlled. Fischer was first identified the non-linear relationship, he found that at low level of rising price rate the long term relationship between between rising price & economic increase is positive, positive, and at high level of rising price rate rate it become become negative. negative.
Accordingly Accordingly the very deep study about the non linear economic increase increase and rising price, there are many possibilitie possibilitiess and factors that explain explain the existence existence of rising price threshold threshold effects effects on the relationship relationship between between economic increase increase and financial development, nowadays the deep study and theoretical research about relationship
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causality. According to Okuyan and Erbaykal there is casualty found in relationship of rising price to economic increase and also tells there is no causality connection found between economic increase and rising price.
On the opposite in nature, financial development dose no produced any type of effect on economic increase under high rising price environment. The basic reason of this this situ situat atio ion n is that that in a risi rising ng pric pricee envir environm onmen ents ts inves investm tment ent proj project ect infor informa mati tion on flow flow and inte interm rmed ediat iates es retu returns rns being being used used beco become me less less read readily ily availab available le and unsure of himself himself and his future. future.
Suppre Suppress ss a nascent nascent uprising uprising
econo economic mic devel develop opme ment nt due to infor informa mati tion on costs costs and risi rising ng pric pricee incre increas ases es transa transactio ctions. ns. High High rising rising price price conditio conditions ns can put out of one's one's conscio consciousne usness ss financial intermediation by grinding something down the unimportant of money assets and policy decisions become a cause distort the financial structure.
The following accepted customs and proprieties view in microeconomics holds that changes in the rate of rising price by nature. These changes in the long terms do not affect real activity. Even so the expert view of solution terms that even in the long term period the rising price high rates can have made a place for themselves themselves under
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about the an opposing direction effects of rising price on real economic increase show only a some part of the complete picture. In some previous researches has focused on the non-linear relationship between rising price and economic increase. The first condition is at lower rate of rising price in this condition the relationship is not important in effect or even positive on economic increase but at higher rates of rising price has important negative effect on economic increase.
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Basi Basical cally ly econo economi micc rese researc arch h theo theori ries es resul results ts based based on about about the output outputss of economic increase to rising price. These economic theories are very useful because the concept of these theories based on observed hypothesis. Historically in the missing word meaning of term “Continually recurring to the rising prices” the early researches about the rising price and economic increase were built on cyclical results, continually recurring to the rising prices is regarded as a post world war 2 reasoning. In advanc advancee of then, then, risi rising ng pric pricee round roundss were were follo followe wed d by turn turn of deflations. Rising price act like a lazy dog that is not doing anything like upward level and downward level trend. The rising price level doing nothing but it is stable in a exceptional level unless and until there is any perturbation. Thenceforth, the rising price moves to another level at which rising price determines. Theory, thus being searched for account a positive correlation correlation position between between rising price price and
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and rising price relationship. Classic economics recollect supply side possibilities if the nation’s economy is to grow the supply side theories underscore the need for bonuses to save and devote, devote, joined to the land capital capital and exertions. Under Under the AdAS framework the Neo-keynesian and Keynesian theory
give some important and bit by bit framework for linking rising price and economic increase. increase. Monetarism Monetarism explain the Quantity possibilit possibilities, ies, and playing in important important role of pecuniary increase in characterizing rising price, Endogenic & Neo-classical increment theories searched for the effects of rising price on economic increase through its behavior on capital collection and investment.
This research is present the important and useful difference among the solutions of theoretical theoretical studies, in the different countries countries the ration of rising price on economic economic
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between between rising price and economic increase. increase. The rising price results results show positively positively on economic economic increase increase relationship relationship in in the long long term period. period.
Rising prices is importantly correlated utilizing the economic increase rate. The simple simple regres regression sionss panel panel indicat indicates es or descri described bed the relatio relationshi nship p betwee between n three three variables rising price unevenness economic increase and rising price. Now it is possible possible with the help of increment increment accounting accounting model to spot that main grooves grooves through which rising price comes down economic increase.(fischer).
According to (lee and Wong) that rising price threshold occurs in the connection between between financial financial Development Development and increment. increment. Now we can say that some changing in the rising price directly effect on the connection between two variables financial development and increment.
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rising price in Pakistan 4-6% this rang of rising price is helpful for maintain economic increase. Similar idea described in India by Singh in 2003 that the target rising price range is 4-7% suitable in India for economic increase. In Pakistan the rising price price is the subject of supply and demand shocks. shocks. In Pakistan Central Central Bank of Pakistan should keep the rising price in rang.
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According to Jing xiao the relationship between economic increases and rising prices of china. Previous Previous literature literature cannot obtain any unambiguous unambiguous solution solution on these problems. This research report will mistake rectification and employ conintegration integration models attaching granger causality causality test and correlation correlation matrix matrix examine the economic growth and rising prices relationship. This information is annual time series from 1978 to 2007 of china. The long run rising prices solutions show positively positively relate to economic increase relationship. relationship. When When china develops economy they must pay attention to price level. The cause of rising prices in the short run period would be high speed speed increase increase of investment investment..
Raghbendra Jha and Tu Dang
According to annual information of economic increase and rising price variability
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This This researc research h paper paper describ described ed the relatio relation n betwee between n rising rising price price and econom economic ic increase confirms that the left out variable diagonal of received dialog models can be economically economically significa significant nt and statist statistically. ically.
This important investigation shows the result according to abstraction of Hansen’s (1999) dialog box tolerance simulation that the relationship between rising price and economic increase for growing countries. Doorstep ideas and Regression slop both are discussed and these readily readily available for regressors the possible prejudice prejudice
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prices. prices.
Erman Erbaykal and H. Aydın Okuya
In this this surv survey ey docume document nt writ writer er defi defines nes Turke Turkey y analy analyze ze in our countr country y the the relationship between economic increase and rising price in the periods of 1987 and 2006. 2006. In both both periods periods turkey turkey analyze analyze with the help of Bound Bound Test Test develop developed ed Pasaran et al. (2001) these test show the results of long term relationship between
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above this optimum level become a reason of economic increase.
Manzoor Hussain
In this document writer tries to explain the primary thing is that to using annual information of Pakistan for the period 1973-2005 describes the threshold level of rising price in Pakistan. In the end of this survey the write finds that there is no any threshold level of rising price in Pakistan. Mubarik (2005) is the main person
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curre currentl ntly y theore theoreti tical cal solu soluti tion on pres present entss thres threshol hold d model model alte alterna rnate tess of supe superrneutrality.the theoretical solution show that the threshold level of rising price more than the effect of rising price on long term increase changes. We use new economic methods methods to obtain obtain the soluti solution on and some some other other result resultss in non-dyna non-dynamic mic,, panelpanelinforma information tion model model and fixed-e fixed-effec ffects ts that that have thresh threshold old effect effects. s. The soluti solution on descri describes bes that rising price has a nonlinea nonlinearr effect effectss on economi economicc increas increase. e. Our solutio solution n and theoret theoretical ical work work in which which describ describes es that that rising rising price price effects effects on
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rising price, 1. The relationship between rising price and economic increase are positively positively related. related. 2. The Changing in growth growth rates after changing in inflation inflation is bigger than that increase increase to changes in rising price rates. These results results describe describe some important points and these points have important policy implications. The helpful advice to reduce economic growth our main and very important step is attempts to reduce rising price to a very low level. Even so, we can easily attempts to achieve faster economic growth may be the inflation rate are becomes unstable.
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX and real GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT.
Authors have mentioned in this paper about situation of rising price value and
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Of rising price rises. But the rising price remains within the threshold level.
2. The greater rising price uncertainty cause is higher rising price and what is the
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Accordi According ng to some some other other survey surveyss to import importance ance of maintai maintain n low rising price provide provide some important important points for Fiji policymakers policymakers in order to foster higher economic increase.
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upgrades economic increase under low level rising price. In Japan the deeply study results show that when the level of rising price of threshold is below 9.66 percent th
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supported the nonlinear relationship between rising price and economic increase. In further both types of countries growing and developing countries show different types of reactions of nonlinearity between the rising price and economic increase
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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