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HISTORY REPEATS TIME In this lesson we will look at how repeating time cycles can be measured with Trading Days. Gann believed that history repeats. repeats. He did more than believe. He made sizeable sizeable profits based on his ability to find repeating cycles. Read what he says about time cycles: “WHY TIME CYCLES PREDICT TREND OF COMMODITIES, STOCKS AND BUSINESS” BUSINESS ” “After fifty-two years of experience and research going back hundreds of years, I have proved to my entire satisfaction that history repeats and that when we know the past, we can determine the future of prices. I have put TIME CYCLES to the test in my personal trading, and I have issued Annual Forecasts on Stocks and Commodities for more than 50 years which have proved accurate.” There are several ways we can measure time cycles cycles in the markets. The simplest one of these is to count trading bars between tops and bottoms. For example if a bottom happened Monday and a top on Friday the same week, you would say the up move lasted four days: Tuesday is the first day of the move and Friday is the fourth (last) day of the move. Of course these moves can go much longer than four days and it is the Gann Trader’s skill that will pick up repeating cycles and profit from them. Continuing our example on Wheat futures for the same period let us look at the number of trading days from the top to the bottom and from the bottom to the top. The table below is taken from continuous Wheat chart (three (three day swing chart). chart). The whole table and and chart goes back to 1959 and we included included 2006 onwards to keep the exercise brief. Have a look on where moves of five trading bars have repeated. We have highlighted these numbers to make it easy for you. Date
Top/Bottom
Move in Trading Days
29/12/2005
Top
27
18/01/2006
Bottom
12
9/02/2006
Top
16
14/02/2006
Bottom
3
28/02/2006
Top
9
28/03/2006
Bottom
20
23/05/2006
Top
39
16/06/2006
Bottom
17
21/06/2006
Top
3
26/06/2006
Bottom
3
11/07/2006
Top
10
26/07/2006
Bottom
11
3/08/2006
Top
6
14/08/2006
Bottom
7
5/09/2006
Top
15
15/09/2006
Bottom
8
17/10/2006
Top
22
23/10/2006
Bottom
4
25/10/2006
Top
2
14/11/2006
Bottom
14
27/11/2006
Top
8
13/12/2006
Bottom
12
26/12/2006
Top
8
10/01/2007
Bottom
10
26/02/2007
Top
31
2/04/2007
Bottom
25
26/04/2007
Top
17
22/05/2007
Bottom
18
29/06/2007
Top
27
3/07/2007
Bottom
2
26/07/2007
Top
16
1/08/2007
Bottom
4
28/09/2007
Top
41
16/10/2007
Bottom
12
23/10/2007
Top
5
5/11/2007
Bottom
9
7/11/2007
Top
2
14/11/2007
Bottom
5
17/12/2007
Top
22
10/01/2008
Bottom
16
11/02/2008
Top
21
13/02/2008
Bottom
2
27/02/2008
Top
9
11/04/2008
Bottom
31
17/04/2008
Top
4
1/05/2008
Bottom
10
8/05/2008
Top
5
15/05/2008
Bottom
5
20/05/2008
Top
3
29/05/2008
Bottom
6
18/06/2008
Top
14
23/06/2008
Bottom
3
27/06/2008
Top
4
5/08/2008
Bottom
26
21/08/2008
Top
12
24/10/2008
Bottom
45
4/11/2008
Top
7
21/11/2008
Bottom
13
28/11/2008
Top
4
5/12/2008
Bottom
5
6/01/2009
Top
20
4/02/2009
Bottom
20
9/02/2009
Top
3
3/03/2009
Bottom
15
23/03/2009
Top
14
30/03/2009
Bottom
5
6/04/2009
Top
5
20/04/2009
Bottom
9
13/05/2009
Top
17
18/05/2009
Bottom
3
1/06/2009
Top
9
30/06/2009
Bottom
21
Have a good look at this table and see if you are able to find other repeating ranges. We will give you the answers in the next lesson. What we covered in this lesson is that markets make predictable moves between tops and bottoms on a regular basis. By measuring these cycles in Trading Days you can time your entries and exits and pick turns in the markets. In last lesson we talked about repeating Price Ranges and asked you to find other repeating numbers. Here is what else you may have picked up: 25.00, 25.50, 25.50 37.00, 37.50, 38.00, 38.00 61.50, 62.00, 62.00 74.00, 75.00, 75.00, 76.00 95.00, 96.0, 97.00 See you at the next lesson...
