Modelo Econ (1)

Resumen Estadísticas de la regresión Coeficiente de correlación múltiple Coeficiente de determinación R^2 R^2 ajustado Error típico Observaciones

0.780025758 0.608440183 0.576182118 2.678954092 32

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA Grados de libertad 1 31 32

Suma de cuadrados 345.7100524 222.4806459 568.1906983

9.100000381

0 0.270000577

Error típico #N/A 0.038902182

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Pronóstico 4,09819916131858 2.18700478 2.457005358 2.997006513 3.537007667 3.780008084 3.483007346 2.916006288 2.727005935 2.403005036 2.754005838 2.754005838 2.565005486 2.295004908 2.268004748 2.349004972 3.213006769 3.26700709 4.050008662 5.42701171 4.482009689 4.077008822 4.266009175

Residuos 0.076211994 -1.508525038 -1.412630208 -0.181906651 -0.691743432 2.355285064 2.455500518 1.332815067 1.014421619 3.288032639 -0.476774342 2.467672011 0.070645666 3.567806747 2.85343262 -1.157152056 0.163286588 -3.480224572 -9.631026953 -0.062016689 -2.399110515 -1.76202871

Regresión Residuos Total Coeficientes Intercepción

Análisis de los residuales Observación

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

3.807008245 3.861008309 3.240006929 3.159006705 3.024006416 2.997006513 3.186006865 3.240006929 2.997006513 2.862006224

0.111263659 1.472013759 1.466549005 3.538508553 3.87662124 0.549798373 -1.53445762 0.731793775 3.648322374 1.350972586

Promedio de los cuadrados 345.7100524 7.176795029

F 48.17053449

Estadístico t Probabilidad #N/A #N/A 6.940499585 8.72781E-08

Valor crítico de F 1.04223E-07

Inferior 95% #N/A

Superior 95% #N/A 0.190659054 0.349342101

Resultados de datos de probabilidad Residuos estándares 0.028903617 -0.572112443 -0.535744054 -0.068988619 -0.262345679 0.893248609 0.931255608 0.505473933 0.384722306 1.2469958 -0.180818035 0.935871681 0.026792571 1.353100932 1.082172498 -0.438853233 0.061926906 -1.319885141 -3.65259457 -0.023520007 -0.909869537 -0.668254437

Percentil

4.098199161 1.5625 -4.204015244 4.6875 0.56978409 7.8125 0.948480319 10.9375 1.584376304 14.0625 1.651549245 17.1875 1.677898308 20.3125 2.055854712 23.4375 2.263216774 26.5625 2.277231497 29.6875 2.365650574 32.8125 2.503980465 35.9375 3.088264652 39.0625 3.355101016 42.1875 3.417426656 45.3125 3.430293678 48.4375 3.546804886 51.5625 3.918271904 54.6875 3.971800705 57.8125 4.059821002 60.9375 4.21297881 64.0625 4.419993 67.1875 4.706555934

0.042197061 0.558265436 0.556192912 1.341989508 1.470219713 0.208512608 -0.581947449 0.277534886 1.383636715 0.512360225

70.3125 73.4375 76.5625 79.6875 82.8125 85.9375 89.0625 92.1875 95.3125 98.4375

5.032677497 5.202437593 5.333022067 5.371506806 5.835811494 5.83829241 6.042038478 6.645328887 6.697515258 6.900627655

Residuos

9,10000038146973 Gráfico de los residuales 0.1 0.05 0 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

9,10000038146973

Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0% #N/A #N/A 0.190659054 0.349342101

4,09819916131858

Gráfico de probabilid 10 5 0 0 -5

20

40

co de los 4,09819916131858

1

9,10000038146973 Curva de regresión ajustada

1.2

4 Series1

2 0 0

0.2

60 Muestra percentil

80

100

0.6

0.8

9,10000038146973

ráfico de probabilidad normal

40

0.4

120

1

1.2

Pronóstico 4,09819916131858

regresión Series1 Pronóstico 4,09819916131858

SUMMARY OUTPUT

X1(% Pob. Desempleo) Residual Plot 5 Residuals

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.707822 R Square 0.501012 Adjusted R Square 0.467746 Standard Error 1.616852 Observations 33

0 0.00

5.00

-5

ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

10.00

15.00

20.00

X1(% Pob. Desempleo)

SS MS F Significance F 2 78.74444 39.37222 15.06085 2.96E-05 30 78.42629 2.61421 32 157.1707

X1(% Pob. Desempleo) Line Fit Plot

Y(% Crecim. PIB)

10 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% Crecim. PIB) Intercept 4.327517 1.507325 2.870992 0.007435 1.249149 7.405886 1.249149 Y(% 7.405886 0 X1(% Pob. Desempleo) -0.24764 0.108448 -2.28353 0.02965 -0.46912 -0.02616 -0.46912 -0.02616 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 Y(% Crecim. X2(% Crecimiento 0.549616 servicios) 0.12701 4.327331 0.000154 0.290226 0.809006 0.290226 Predicted 0.809006

RESIDUAL OUTPUT Observation Predicted Y(% Crecim. Residuals PIB) Standard Residuals 1 4.842686 -0.74449 -0.47556 2 4.478673 -2.21546 -1.41517 3 3.575142 -2.62666 -1.67783 4 1.63636 -0.05198 -0.03321 5 2.078137 1.276964 0.815686 6 1.829909 1.258356 0.803799 7 3.119307 2.718985 1.736805 8 4.161858 1.209648 0.772686 9 4.397438 -0.33762 -0.21566 10 3.388112 0.029315 0.018725 11 4.631988 1.410051 0.900697 12 3.161473 -0.88424 -0.56483 13 5.449508 -0.41683 -0.26626 14 5.561282 -3.19563 -2.04127 15 2.901611 2.9342 1.874278 16 5.158665 0.043773 0.027961 17 4.706161 -2.65031 -1.69293 18 4.279517 -0.84922 -0.54246 19 1.195805 -0.62602 -0.39988 20 -1.48519 -2.71883 -1.73671 21 5.847263 -1.42727 -0.9117

-10


PROBABILITY OUTPUT Percentile Y(% Crecim. PIB) 1.515152 -4.20402 4.545455 0.569784 7.575758 0.94848 10.60606 1.584376 13.63636 1.651549 16.66667 1.677898 19.69697 2.055855 22.72727 2.263217 25.75758 2.277231 28.78788 2.365651 31.81818 2.50398 34.84848 3.088265 37.87879 3.355101 40.90909 3.417427 43.93939 3.430294 46.9697 3.546805 50 3.918272 53.0303 3.971801 56.06061 4.059821 59.09091 4.098199 62.12121 4.212979

PIB)

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

1.772918 1.765872 2.700503 3.815002 4.053973 5.108893 5.468269 3.62997 2.796636 3.665599 4.709499 4.415933

-0.09502 0.738108 1.217769 1.51802 0.652583 1.588622 1.432358 -0.08316 -1.14509 0.306201 1.93583 -0.20295

-0.0607 0.471481 0.777874 0.969665 0.41685 1.014763 0.914947 -0.05312 -0.73145 0.195592 1.236549 -0.12964

65.15152 68.18182 71.21212 74.24242 77.27273 80.30303 83.33333 86.36364 89.39394 92.42424 95.45455 98.48485

4.419993 4.706556 5.032677 5.202438 5.333022 5.371507 5.835811 5.838292 6.042038 6.645329 6.697515 6.900628

X2(% Crecimiento servicios) Residual Plot

Residual

-4

0 -2

0 -5

Predicted Y(% Crecim.

Y(% Crecim. PIB)

Y(% Crecim. PIB)

4

6

8

10

-5

Normal Probability Plot 12

10 X2(% Crecimiento servicios)

5

X2(% Crecimiento servicios) 0Line 0 Fit Plot -5

Line Fit

Upper 95,0%

2

Y(% Crecim. PIB)

25.00

Residuals

5

20

10 Y(% Crecim. PIB) 0 0

5

10

-10 X2(% Crecimiento servicios)

15

Predicted Y(% Crecim. PIB)

40

60

80

Sample Percentile

bability Plot

80

ple Percentile

100

120

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sumatoria Promedio

Desempleo 9.10 8.10 9.10 11.10 13.10 14.00 12.90 10.80 10.10 8.90 10.20 10.20 9.50 8.50 8.40 8.70 11.90 12.10 15.00 20.10 16.60 15.10 15.80 14.10 14.30 12.00 11.70 11.20 11.10 11.80 12.00 11.10 10.60 362.9000 11.7939

X2(% Crecimiento servicios) 5.037568867 3.924687168 2.731333906 0.1049672 1.809911379 1.763791663 3.614154276 4.564815299 4.678037231 2.300926168 5.149846261 2.474316216 6.321880691 6.074672651 1.190473955 5.43224512 6.05078141 5.364639367 1.060646358 -1.519345086 10.24466811 2.155734109 2.458317575 3.392852674 5.510743742 4.909213952 6.69341701 7.121996208 3.732242789 2.531435448 4.202587661 5.696393737 4.936976077 131.7169 3.9914

Y(% Crecim. PIB) 4.098199161 2.263216774 0.948480319 1.584376304 3.355101016 3.088264652 5.83829241 5.371506806 4.059821002 3.417426656 6.042038478 2.277231497 5.032677497 2.365650574 5.835811494 5.202437593 2.055854712 3.430293678 0.56978409 -4.204015244 4.419993 1.677898308 2.503980465 3.918271904 5.333022067 4.706555934 6.697515258 6.900627655 3.546804886 1.651549245 3.971800705 6.645328887 4.21297881 118.8188 3.6006

Y-estimado 4.5601 4.9162 4.5601 3.8477 3.1354 2.8148 3.2066 3.9546 4.2039 4.6313 4.1683 4.1683 4.4176 4.7738 4.8094 4.7025 3.5628 3.4916 2.4587 0.6422 1.8888 2.4230 2.1737 2.7792 2.7080 3.5272 3.6340 3.8121 3.8477 3.5984 3.5272 3.8477 4.0258 118.8188 3.6006

U-estimado 0.4619 2.6530 3.6116 2.2634 -0.2197 -0.2734 -2.6317 -1.4169 0.1441 1.2139 -1.8738 1.8911 -0.6151 2.4081 -1.0264 -0.4999 1.5069 0.0613 1.8889 4.8462 -2.5312 0.7451 -0.3303 -1.1391 -2.6250 -1.1794 -3.0635 -3.0885 0.3009 1.9469 -0.4446 -2.7976 -0.1872 0.0000 0.0000

(Y - Ymed) 0.4976 -1.3374 -2.6521 -2.0162 -0.2455 -0.5123 2.2377 1.7709 0.4593 -0.1831 2.4415 -1.3233 1.4321 -1.2349 2.2352 1.6019 -1.5447 -0.1703 -3.0308 -7.8046 0.8194 -1.9227 -1.0966 0.3177 1.7325 1.1060 3.0969 3.3001 -0.0538 -1.9490 0.3712 3.0448 0.6124 0.0000 0.0000

(Yestimado - Ymed) 0.9595 1.3157 0.9595 0.2472 -0.4652 -0.7857 -0.3939 0.3540 0.6033 1.0307 0.5677 0.5677 0.8170 1.1732 1.2088 1.1020 -0.0378 -0.1090 -1.1419 -2.9584 -1.7118 -1.1775 -1.4268 -0.8214 -0.8926 -0.0734 0.0335 0.2115 0.2472 -0.0022 -0.0734 0.2472 0.4252 0.0000 0.0000

(Y - Ymed)^2 0.2476 1.7885 7.0336 4.0650 0.0603 0.2625 5.0074 3.1362 0.2109 0.0335 5.9608 1.7512 2.0509 1.5250 4.9963 2.5660 2.3861 0.0290 9.1857 60.9115 0.6715 3.6967 1.2025 0.1009 3.0014 1.2232 9.5911 10.8904 0.0029 3.7987 0.1378 9.2706 0.3750 157.1707 4.7627

U^2 0.2133 7.0386 13.0436 5.1228 0.0483 0.0748 6.9257 2.0077 0.0208 1.4735 3.5110 3.5761 0.3783 5.7991 1.0535 0.2499 2.2709 0.0038 3.5679 23.4856 6.4070 0.5552 0.1091 1.2975 6.8908 1.3909 9.3850 9.5389 0.0906 3.7903 0.1977 7.8266 0.0350 127.3794 3.8600

𝛽1 𝛽2

𝛽0

Ecuacion R^2 SRC STC

8 6 4

Axis Title

(Yestimado - Ymed)^2 0.9207 1.7310 0.9207 0.0611 0.2164 0.6174 0.1552 0.1253 0.3640 1.0624 0.3223 0.3223 0.6675 1.3764 1.4613 1.2143 0.0014 0.0119 1.3040 8.7520 2.9302 1.3866 2.0359 0.6746 0.7967 0.0054 0.0011 0.0448 0.0611 0.0000 0.0054 0.0611 0.1808 29.7913 0.9028

2 0 0.00 -2 -4 -6

5.00

-0.247644083 0.549616353 4.327517469 4,327517469+(-0,247644083)X1+(0,549616353)X2 0.498987894 78.42629277 157.1707325

Chart Title y = 0.0376x + 2.9607 R² = 0.027

Series1 5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Axis Title

25.00

30.00

35.00

Linear (Series1)

1 X1(% Pob. Desempleo) X2(% Crecimiento servicios)

9.10 5.03756887

1

1

8.10 9.10 3.92468717 2.73133391

1

1

11.10 13.10 0.1049672 1.80991138

1

1

1

14.00 1.76379166

12.90 3.61415428

10.80 4.5648153

1

1

10.10 8.90 4.67803723 2.30092617

1

1

10.20 10.20 5.14984626 2.47431622

1 9.50 6.32188069

1

1

8.50 8.40 6.07467265 1.19047395

1

1

8.70 11.90 5.43224512 6.05078141

1

1

12.10 15.00 5.36463937 1.06064636

1 20.10 -1.51934509

1

1

16.60 15.10 10.2446681 2.15573411

1

1

15.80 14.10 2.45831757 3.39285267

1

1

14.30 12.00 5.51074374 4.90921395

1 11.70 6.69341701

1

1

11.20 11.10 7.12199621 3.73224279

1

1

11.80 12.00 2.53143545 4.20258766

1

1

11.10 10.60 5.69639374 4.93697608

X1(% Pob. Desempleo) X2(% Crecimiento servicios) 1 5.03756887 9.10 1 3.92468717 8.10 1 2.73133391 9.10 1 0.1049672 11.10 1 1.80991138 13.10 1 1.76379166 14.00 1 3.61415428 12.90 1 4.5648153 10.80 1 4.67803723 10.10 1 2.30092617 8.90 1 5.14984626 10.20 1 2.47431622 10.20 1 6.32188069 9.50 1 6.07467265 8.50 1 1.19047395 8.40 1 5.43224512 8.70 1 6.05078141 11.90 1 5.36463937 12.10 1 1.06064636 15.00 1 -1.51934509 20.10 1 10.2446681 16.60 1 2.15573411 15.10 1 2.45831757 15.80 1 3.39285267 14.10 1 5.51074374 14.30 1 4.90921395 12.00 1 6.69341701 11.70 1 7.12199621 11.20 1 3.73224279 11.10 1 2.53143545 11.80 1 4.20258766 12.00 1 5.69639374 11.10 1 4.93697608 10.60

matrzi x transpuesta x

matriz x transpuesto x a la -1

matriz x transpuesto y

Y 33 389.200004 131.716929 389.200004 4825.0401 1507.08997 131.716929 1507.08997 696.949051 0.86910716 -0.05792257 -0.03900084 -0.05792257 0.00449884 0.00121848 -0.03900084 0.00121848 0.00617076 118.818777 1317.69848 579.839993

4.09819916 2.26321677 0.94848032 1.5843763 3.35510102 3.08826465 5.83829241 5.37150681 4.059821 3.41742666 6.04203848 2.2772315 5.0326775 2.36565057 5.83581149 5.20243759 2.05585471 3.43029368 0.56978409 -4.20401524 4.419993 1.67789831 2.50398047 3.9182719 5.33302207 4.70655593 6.69751526 6.90062766 3.54680489 1.65154925 3.9718007 6.64532889 4.21297881

𝛽0 𝛽1

𝛽2

4.32751747 -0.2476441 0.54961635


0.707822087 0.501012106 0.467746247 1.616851805 Error total 33

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA Grados de libertad Regresión Residuos Total

Intercepción Variable X 1 Variable X 2

2 30 32


Coeficientes 4.327517469 -0.247644083 0.549616353

Error típico 1.507324926 0.108447777 0.127010466

Pronóstico para Y 4.842686445 4.478672548 3.575141996 1.636359739 2.078136774 1.829909043 3.119307181 4.161858459 4.397437895 3.38811187 4.631987587 3.161472521 5.449507687 5.561282189 2.901611217 5.158664743 4.706161383 4.27951749 1.195804801 -1.485185607 5.847262717

Residuos -0.744487284 -2.215455773 -2.626661677 -0.051983434 1.276964243 1.258355609 2.718985229 1.209648348 -0.337616892 0.029314785 1.410050891 -0.884241024 -0.416830191 -3.195631615 2.934200278 0.04377285 -2.650306671 -0.849223812 -0.626020711 -2.718829637 -1.427269717

Análisis de los residuales Observación 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

1.772918434 1.765872445 2.700503112 3.815001908 4.053972738 5.108893188 5.468269365 3.62996972 2.796635557 3.665599372 4.709499201 4.415932877

-0.095020127 0.738108021 1.217768791 1.51802016 0.652583196 1.58862207 1.43235829 -0.083164834 -1.145086312 0.306201333 1.935829686 -0.202954067

Relacion entre R^2 y F Valor F Tabla Valor F Calculado


15.06084955 Son iguales por lo tanto esta correctamente 15.06084955 15.06084955

F 15.06084955

Estadístico t Probabilidad 2.870991778 0.007435298 -2.283533059 0.029650308 4.327331213 0.000154246

Valor crítico de F 2.9604E-05

Inferior 95%

Superior 95% 1.24914929 7.405885648 -0.469123991 -0.026164176 0.290226377 0.809006329

Resultados de datos de probabilidad Residuos estándares -0.475555742 -1.415165494 -1.677831268 -0.033205431 0.815685763 0.803799136 1.736804734 0.772686425 -0.215659361 0.01872539 0.90069745 -0.564826164 -0.266258397 -2.04127189 1.874277536 0.02796076 -1.692934969 -0.542458238 -0.399882914 -1.736705347 -0.911696311

Percentil

78.42629277 2.614209759

1.515151515 4.545454545 7.575757576 10.60606061 13.63636364 16.66666667 19.6969697 22.72727273 25.75757576 28.78787879 31.81818182 34.84848485 37.87878788 40.90909091 43.93939394 46.96969697 50 53.03030303 56.06060606 59.09090909 62.12121212

Y -4.204015244 0.56978409 0.948480319 1.584376304 1.651549245 1.677898308 2.055854712 2.263216774 2.277231497 2.365650574 2.503980465 3.088264652 3.355101016 3.417426656 3.430293678 3.546804886 3.918271904 3.971800705 4.059821002 4.098199161 4.21297881

-0.060695955 0.471480864 0.777873517 0.969664922 0.416850218 1.014763266 0.914946736 -0.053123156 -0.731446168 0.195592061 1.236548889 -0.12964086

65.15151515 68.18181818 71.21212121 74.24242424 77.27272727 80.3030303 83.33333333 86.36363636 89.39393939 92.42424242 95.45454545 98.48484848

4.419993 4.706555934 5.032677497 5.202437593 5.333022067 5.371506806 5.835811494 5.83829241 6.042038478 6.645328887 6.697515258 6.900627655

Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0% 1.24914929 7.405885648 -0.469123991 -0.026164176 0.290226377 0.809006329

𝐻0 = 𝛽0 ; 𝛽1 ; 𝛽2 = 0 & 𝐻𝑎 = 𝛽0 ; 𝛽1 ; 𝛽2 ≠ 0 Teniendo un intervalo de confianza del 95%, con un intervalo de (-2,36;2,36) Teniendo en cuenta lo anterior podemos decir que: 0.007567032 0.029909914 0.000163455

𝛽0 𝛽1 𝛽2

Exámen de Cambio Estructural Resumén Estadístico

El cambio Estructural examina si los coeficientes de distintos conjuntos de datos son iguales y estos exámenes son comúnmente utilizados en análisis de series de tiempo para examinar la presencia de un cambio estructural. El conjunto de datos de series de tiempo pueden ser divididos en dos subconjuntos y cada subconjunto puede ser examinado uno al otro y en todo el conjunto de datos para determinar estadísticamente si en verdad hay un inicio de cambio en un periodo de tiempo particular. El exámen de cambio estructural es utilizado con frecuencia para determinar si los variables independientes tienen diferentes impactos sobre diferentes subgrupos del universo, tales como examinar si, la nueva campaña de marketing, las actividades, eventos grandes, adquisición, deprivación, etc. tienen impacto sobre los datos de series de tiempo. Suponga que el conjunto de datos tiene 100 puntos de datos de series de tiempo, puede ajustar varios puntos de cambio para examinar, por ejemplo, puntos de datos: 10, 30 y 51 ( esto significa que se ejecutarán 3 puntos de cambio estructural sobre los siguientes conjuntos de datos: punto de datos 1-9 comparado con 10-100; punto de datos 1-29 comparado con 30-100; y 1-50 comparado con 51-100, para ver si en verdad al inicio de los puntos de datos 10, 30 y 51 existen cambios en la estructura subyacente.

El exámen de una hipótesis unilateral es ejecutada sobre un hipótesis nula Ho, tales que dos datos subconjuntos son estadísticamente simulares al otro, esto es, que no existe una cambio estructural estadísticamente significante. La hipótesis alternativa es que dos datos subconjuntos son estadísticamente diferentes que el otro, indicando un posible cambio estructural. Si el valor p calculado es menor o igual a 0.01, 0.05 ó 0.10, significa que la hipotesis ha sido rechazada, pudiendo interpretar que los dos datos subconjuntos son estadísticamente diferentes a 1%, 5% y 10% de nivel de significación. Un valor alto de p indica que no existe un cambio estructural significante estadísticamente.

Resultado Periodo de punto del exámen de Cambio Estructural: Suma Total de los Cuadrados Residuales: Primer Suma de Subconjuntos de Cuadrados Residuales: Segunda Suma de Subconjuntos de Cuadrados Residuales: Exámen Estadístico Calculado: Valor P: *Hay un cambio estructural estadísticamente insignificante

5 100.2819 6.8565 92.3277 0.1605 0.8525

Periodo de punto del exámen de Cambio Estructural: Suma Total de los Cuadrados Residuales: Primer Suma de Subconjuntos de Cuadrados Residuales: Segunda Suma de Subconjuntos de Cuadrados Residuales: Exámen Estadístico Calculado: Valor P: *Hay un cambio estructural estadísticamente insignificante

10 100.2819 14.6949 78.9740 1.0237 0.371884334

Periodo de punto del exámen de Cambio Estructural: Suma Total de los Cuadrados Residuales: Primer Suma de Subconjuntos de Cuadrados Residuales: Segunda Suma de Subconjuntos de Cuadrados Residuales: Exámen Estadístico Calculado: Valor P: *Hay un cambio estructural estadísticamente significativo

16 100.2819 42.6657 42.7071 2.532207806 0.096918637

n1

n2 Año X1(% Pob. Desempleo) Y(% Crecim. PIB) 1980 4.0981992 Regresion 1 9.10 1981 2.2632168 8.10 7 8 1982 0.9484803 9.10 y = -0,3562x + 7,8012 61983 6 11.10 R² = 0,1895 1.5843763 F3.355101 = 0,011331 41984 5 13.10 1985 3.0882647 14.00 2 4 1986 5.8382924 Desemp 12.90 5.3715068 01987 3 10.80 Linear (Desemp) 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 1988 4.059821 10.10 -2 2 1989 3.4174267 8.90 -41990 1 10.20 6.0420385 2.2772315 10.20 -61991 0 Axis Title 1992 5.0326775 9.50 0.00 5.00 10.00 1993 2.3656506 8.50 1994 5.8358115 8.40

Axis Title

Desemp

SCRr SCRnr k n1 n2 F F tabla

σ1 σ2 F σ1/σ2 F (n1-k)/(n2-k) Regresion Restr. Regresion 1 Regresion 2

127.37945 99.275159 2 15 18

SCE1 SCE2

Año X1(% Pob. Desempleo) Y(% Crecim. PIB) y =1995 0.1071x + 2.60528.70 5.202437593 R² = 0.014 1996 2.055854712 11.90 8 1997 3.430293678 12.10 1998 0.56978409 15.00 6 1999 -4.204015244 20.10 4 2000 4.419993 16.60 2001 1.677898308 15.10 2 2002 2.503980465 15.80 0 2003 14.10 0.00 3.918271904 5.00 2004 5.333022067 14.30 -2 2005 4.706555934 12.00 -4 2006 6.697515258 11.70 2007 6.900627655 11.20 -6 15.00 20.00 2008 3.546804886 11.10 2009 1.651549245 11.80 2010 3.971800705 12.00 2011 6.645328887 11.10 2012 4.21297881 10.60 37.43303 61.84213

4.104876 HAY CAMIO ESTRUC. PUES F CAL>F CRITICO 2.96 Se rechaza H0: SCEr=SCEnr

2.8794641 LOS SIGMAS ESTIMADOS SON DISTINTOS 3.8651329 FCAL No= a: sigma1/sigma2 0.7449845 13/16 2.397 n 33 15 18

k 2 2 2

SCE 127.3794499 37.43303349 61.84212578

SCEnr

F 2.96

99.27516

4.104875958

σ² 2.879464115 3.865132861

Crecim. PIB)

n1 = -0.6775x + 12.367 Regresion 2 y OUTPUT SUMMARY R² = 0.4799

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.118435217 R Square 0.014026901 Adjusted R Square -0.061817184 Standard Error 1.696898381 Observations 15 10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

ANOVA df

SS MS 0.532539319 0.53253932 37.43303349 2.87946411 37.96557281

F Significance F 0.1849439 0.67420154

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat Intercept 2.605244732 2.59500131 1.00394737 X1(% Pob. Desempleo) 0.107139114 0.249131158 0.43005104

P-value Lower 95% 0.33372578 -3.00091476 0.67420154 -0.43107603

Regression Residual Total

1 13 14

n2 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.692747406 R Square 0.479898969 Adjusted R Square0.447392655 Standard Error 1.965994115 Observations 18 ANOVA df

Fcal=σ1/σ2

0.744984511

Regression Residual

1 16

SS MS 57.06193728 57.0619373 61.84212578 3.86513286

Total

17

118.9040631

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat Intercept 12.36661641 2.350288062 5.26174498 X1(% Pob. Desempleo) -0.677544267 0.176338293 -3.84229798 n SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.435370263

F Significance F 14.7632538 0.0014385

P-value Lower 95% 7.7499E-05 7.38422829 0.0014385 -1.05136475

R Square 0.189547266 Adjusted R Square0.163403629 Standard Error 2.027070426 Observations 33 ANOVA df

SS MS 29.7912826 29.7912826 127.3794499 4.10901451 157.1707325

F Significance F 7.25022569 0.01133103

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat Intercept 7.801239023 1.599474806 4.87737537 X1(% Pob. Desempleo) -0.356171916 0.13227687 -2.69262431

P-value Lower 95% 3.0515E-05 4.53908865 0.01133103 -0.62595237

Regression Residual Total

1 31 32

Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% 8.21140423 -3.00091476 8.21140423 0.64535426 -0.43107603 0.64535426

Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% 17.3490045 7.38422829 17.3490045 -0.30372379 -1.05136475 -0.30372379

Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% 11.0633894 4.53908865 11.0633894 -0.08639146 -0.62595237 -0.08639146

n1

n2 Año X1(% Pob.X2(% Desempleo) Crecimiento servicios) Y(% Crecim. PIB) 1980 5.0375689 4.098199161 9.10 1981 3.9246872 2.263216774 8.10 1982 2.7313339 0.948480319 9.10 1983 0.1049672 1.584376304 11.10 1984 1.8099114 3.355101016 13.10 1985 1.7637917 3.088264652 14.00 1986 3.6141543 5.83829241 12.90 1987 4.5648153 5.371506806 10.80 1988 4.6780372 4.059821002 10.10 1989 2.3009262 3.417426656 8.90 1990 5.1498463 6.042038478 10.20 1991 2.4743162 2.277231497 10.20 1992 6.3218807 5.032677497 9.50 1993 6.0746727 2.365650574 8.50 1994 1.190474 5.835811494 8.40

SCRr SCRnr k n1 n2

78.426293 58.276524 3 15 18

F F Critico

3.1118521 HAY CAMIO ESTRUC. PUES F CAL>F CRITICO 2.96E-05 Se rechaza H0: SCEr=SCEnr

σ1 σ2 F σ1/σ2 F (n1-k)/(n2-k) Regresion Restr. Regresion 1 Regresion 2

SCE1 SCE2

Año 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

X1(% Pob. Desempleo) 8.70 11.90 12.10 15.00 20.10 16.60 15.10 15.80 14.10 14.30 12.00 11.70 11.20 11.10 11.80 12.00 11.10 10.60

31.29705 26.97947

2.6080875 LOS SIGMAS ESTIMADOS SON DISTINTOS 1.7986316 FCAL No= a: sigma1/sigma2 1.4500399 12/15 2.475 n 33 12 15

k 3 3 3

SCE 78.42629277 31.29705052 26.97947326

SCEnr

F 2.9604E-05

58.27652

3.111852068

σ² 2.608087543 1.79863155

X2(% Crecimiento servicios) Y(% Crecim. PIB)n1 5.43224512 5.20243759 6.05078141 2.05585471 5.364639367 3.43029368 1.060646358 0.56978409 -1.519345086 -4.20401524 10.24466811 4.419993 2.155734109 1.67789831 2.458317575 2.50398047 3.392852674 3.9182719 5.510743742 5.33302207 4.909213952 4.70655593 6.69341701 6.69751526 7.121996208 6.90062766 3.732242789 3.54680489 2.531435448 1.65154925 4.202587661 3.9718007 5.696393737 6.64532889 4.936976077 4.21297881

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.41910209 R Square 0.17564656 Adjusted R Square 0.03825432 Standard Error 1.61495744 Observations 15 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

SS MS 2 6.6685223 3.33426115 12 31.2970505 2.60808754 14 37.9655728

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat Intercept -0.05128607 3.0164565 -0.01700209 X1(% Pob. Desempleo) 0.23840124 0.25207207 0.94576617 X2(% Crecimiento servicios) 0.37945632 0.24738924 1.53384329 n2 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.87926038 R Square 0.77309881 Adjusted R Square 0.74284532 Standard Error 1.3411307 Observations 18 ANOVA df

Fcal=σ1/σ2

1.450039916

Regression Residual

SS MS 2 91.9245898 45.9622949 15 26.9794733 1.79863155

Total

17 118.904063

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat Intercept 6.20603437 2.12804387 2.91630941 X1(% Pob. Desempleo) -0.41505563 0.13425641 -3.09151451 X2(% Crecimiento servicios) 0.61460222 0.13959987 4.40259879 n SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.70782209

R Square 0.50101211 Adjusted R Square 0.46774625 Standard Error 1.6168518 Observations 33 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

SS MS 2 78.7444398 39.3722199 30 78.4262928 2.61420976 32 157.170733

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat Intercept 4.32751747 1.50732493 2.87099178 X1(% Pob. Desempleo) -0.24764408 0.10844778 -2.28353306 X2(% Crecimiento servicios) 0.54961635 0.12701047 4.32733121

F Significance F 1.27843145 0.31382008

P-value 0.98671437 0.36292317 0.15100105

Lower 95% Upper 95% -6.62358018 6.52100805 -0.31081663 0.7876191 -0.15955852 0.91847116

Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% -6.62358018 6.52100805 -0.31081663 0.7876191 -0.15955852 0.91847116

F Significance F 25.5540357 1.4749E-05

P-value Lower 95% 0.01063686 1.67021623 0.00744515 -0.70121638 0.00051422 0.31705214

Upper 95% Lower 95,0% 10.7418525 1.67021623 -0.12889487 -0.70121638 0.91215229 0.31705214

Upper 95,0% 10.7418525 -0.12889487 0.91215229

F Significance F 15.0608496 2.9604E-05

P-value 0.0074353 0.02965031 0.00015425

Lower 95% 1.24914929 -0.46912399 0.29022638

Upper 95% Lower 95,0% 7.40588565 1.24914929 -0.02616418 -0.46912399 0.80900633 0.29022638

Upper 95,0% 7.40588565 -0.02616418 0.80900633

X2(% Crecimiento servicios)Y(% Crecim. PIB) 1980 5.037568867 4.098199161 1981 3.924687168 2.263216774 1982 2.731333906 0.948480319 1983 0.1049672 1.584376304 1984 1.809911379 3.355101016 1985 1.763791663 3.088264652 1986 3.614154276 5.83829241 1987 4.564815299 5.371506806 1988 4.678037231 4.059821002 1989 2.300926168 3.417426656 1990 5.149846261 6.042038478 1991 2.474316216 2.277231497 1992 6.321880691 5.032677497 1993 6.074672651 2.365650574 1994 1.190473955 5.835811494 1995 5.43224512 5.202437593 1996 6.05078141 2.055854712 1997 5.364639367 3.430293678 1998 1.060646358 0.56978409 1999 -1.519345086 -4.204015244 2000 10.24466811 4.419993 2001 2.155734109 1.677898308 2002 2.458317575 2.503980465 2003 3.392852674 3.918271904 2004 5.510743742 5.333022067 2005 4.909213952 4.706555934 2006 6.69341701 6.697515258 2007 7.121996208 6.900627655 2008 3.732242789 3.546804886 2009 2.531435448 1.651549245 2010 4.202587661 3.971800705 2011 5.696393737 6.645328887 2012 4.936976077 4.21297881

10 8 6 4

Axis Title

Año

-4

2 0 -2

-2 0

2

4

-4 -6

Axis Title

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations ANOVA Regression Residual Total

Intercept X Variable 1

Servicios y = 0.6167x + 1.1391 R² = 0.4143

Servicios Linear (Servicios) 4

6

8

10

12

Axis Title

gression Statistics 0.64364533 0.41427931 0.39538509 1.72325789 33

df 1 31 32

SS MS 65.11258223 65.1125822 92.0581503 2.96961775 157.1707325

F 21.9262503

Coefficients 1.13910183 0.61668926

Standard Error t Stat 0.605240176 1.88206579 0.131699523 4.68254742

P-value 0.06924448 5.3246E-05

Significance F 5.3246E-05

Lower 95% Upper 95% -0.095293645 2.37349731 0.348086315 0.88529221

Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% -0.09529364 2.37349731 0.34808631 0.88529221

X1(% Pob. X2(% Desempleo) CrecimientoY(% servicios) Crecim. PIB) 5.037569 4.098199 9.10 3.924687 2.263217 8.10 2.731334 0.94848 9.10 0.104967 1.584376 11.10 1.809911 3.355101 13.10 1.763792 3.088265 14.00 3.614154 5.838292 12.90 4.564815 5.371507 10.80 4.678037 4.059821 10.10 2.300926 3.417427 8.90 5.149846 6.042038 10.20 2.474316 2.277231 10.20 6.321881 5.032677 9.50 6.074673 2.365651 8.50 1.190474 5.835811 8.40 5.432245 5.202438 8.70 6.050781 2.055855 11.90 5.364639 3.430294 12.10 1.060646 0.569784 15.00 -1.51935 -4.20402 20.10 10.24467 4.419993 16.60 2.155734 1.677898 15.10 2.458318 2.50398 15.80 3.392853 3.918272 14.10 5.510744 5.333022 14.30 4.909214 4.706556 12.00 6.693417 6.697515 11.70 7.121996 6.900628 11.20 3.732243 3.546805 11.10 2.531435 1.651549 11.80 4.202588 3.971801 12.00 5.696394 6.645329 11.10 4.936976 4.212979 10.60


SS 1 12.55944758 31 222.2793537 32 234.8388013

Coefficients Standard Error Intercept 12.87499218 0.940472692 X2(% Crecimiento servicios) -0.27084399 0.20464571


Intercept X Variable 1

SS 1 9.156570135 31 162.0546189 32 171.211189

Coefficients Standard Error 6.320266009 1.804090942 -0.19746107 0.149198663

Y(Desemp)XServ

y = -0.2708x + 12.875 R² = 0.0535

25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00

MS F Significance F 12.55944758 1.751592618 0.195354903 7.170301733

5.00 0.00 -4

-2

0

2

4

6

Y(Serv)XDesemp t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% 13.68991603 1.09928E-14 10.95688547 14.79309888 10.95688547 14.79309888 12 -1.32347747 0.195354903 -0.68822166 10 0.14653369 -0.68822166 0.14653369

8

y = -0.1975x + 6.3203 R² = 0.0535

8 6 4 2 0 -2

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

-4 Y(Serv)XDesemp

MS F Significance F 9.156570135 1.751592618 0.195354903 5.227568352

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% 3.503296791 0.001420434 2.640798273 9.999733744 2.640798273 9.999733744 -1.32347747 0.195354903 -0.50175375 0.10683161 -0.50175375 0.10683161

Linear (Y(Serv)XDesemp)

0.2708x + 12.875 R² = 0.0535

10

12

0.1975x + 6.3203 R² = 0.0535

20.00

Y(Serv)XDesemp)

25.00

X1(% Pob. X2(% Desempleo) CrecimientoY(% servicios) Crecim. PIB) 5.037569 4.098199 9.10 3.924687 2.263217 8.10 2.731334 0.94848 9.10 0.104967 1.584376 11.10 1.809911 3.355101 13.10 1.763792 3.088265 14.00 3.614154 5.838292 12.90 4.564815 5.371507 10.80 4.678037 4.059821 10.10 2.300926 3.417427 8.90 5.149846 6.042038 10.20 2.474316 2.277231 10.20 6.321881 5.032677 9.50 6.074673 2.365651 8.50 1.190474 5.835811 8.40 5.432245 5.202438 8.70 6.050781 2.055855 11.90 5.364639 3.430294 12.10 1.060646 0.569784 15.00 -1.51935 -4.20402 20.10 10.24467 4.419993 16.60 2.155734 1.677898 15.10 2.458318 2.50398 15.80 3.392853 3.918272 14.10 5.510744 5.333022 14.30 4.909214 4.706556 12.00 6.693417 6.697515 11.70 7.121996 6.900628 11.20 3.732243 3.546805 11.10 2.531435 1.651549 11.80 4.202588 3.971801 12.00 5.696394 6.645329 11.10 4.936976 4.212979 10.60

X1 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.4353703 R Square 0.1895473 Adjusted R Square 0.1634036 Standard Error 2.0270704 Observations 33 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

SS 1 29.79128 31 127.3794 32 157.1707

CoefficientsStandard Error Intercept 7.801239 1.599475 X1(% Pob. Desempleo) -0.3561719 0.132277 x2 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.6436453 R Square 0.4142793 Adjusted R Square 0.3953851 Standard Error 1.7232579 Observations 33 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

SS 1 65.11258 31 92.05815 32 157.1707

CoefficientsStandard Error Intercept 1.1391018 0.60524 X2(% Crecimiento servicios) 0.6166893 0.1317

X1(% Desempleo) X2(% Crecimiento Serv.) Y (% Crecim. PIB)

MS F 29.79128 7.250226 4.109015

Significance F 0.011331033

t Stat P-value 4.877375 3.05E-05 -2.69262 0.011331

Lower 95% 4.53908865 -0.625952372

MS F 65.11258 21.92625 2.969618

Significance F 5.3246E-05

t Stat P-value 1.882066 0.069244 4.682547 5.32E-05

Lower 95% -0.095293645 0.348086315

X1(% Desempleo) X2(% Crecimiento Serv.) 7.116327312 -1.405197604 -1.405197604 5.18821785 -2.534635937 3.199518247

Upper 95% 11.0633894 -0.086391461

Lower 95,0% 4.53908865 -0.625952372

Upper 95% 2.373497311 0.885292213

Lower 95,0% -0.095293645 0.348086315

Y(% Crecim. PIB) -2.534635937 3.199518247 4.76274947

Y(% Crecim. PIB)

Normal Probability Plot 1.5 1 0.5 0 0

Upper 95,0% 11.0633894 -0.086391461

0.2

0.4

0.6

Sample Percentile

Y(% Crecim. PIB)

X1(% Pob. Desempleo) Line Fit Plot

Upper 95,0% 2.373497311 0.885292213

10 0 0.00 -10

10.00

20.00


30.00

obability Plot

0.8

1

1.2

mple Percentile

sempleo) Line Fit

Y(% Crecim. PIB) 30.00

Predicted Y(% Crecim. PIB)

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Desempleo 9.10 8.10 9.10 11.10 13.10 14.00 12.90 10.80 10.10 8.90 10.20 10.20 9.50 8.50 8.40 8.70 11.90 12.10 15.00 20.10 16.60 15.10 15.80 14.10 14.30 12.00 11.70 11.20 11.10 11.80 12.00 11.10 10.60

X2(% Crecimiento servicios) Y(% Crecim. PIB) U U^2 5.037568867 4.098199161 -0.74448728 0.55426132 3.924687168 2.263216774 -2.21545577 4.90824428 2.731333906 0.948480319 -2.62666168 6.89935156 0.1049672 1.584376304 -0.05198343 0.00270228 1.809911379 3.355101016 1.27696424 1.63063768 1.763791663 3.088264652 1.25835561 1.58345884 3.614154276 5.83829241 2.71898523 7.39288067 4.564815299 5.371506806 1.20964835 1.46324912 4.678037231 4.059821002 -0.33761689 0.11398517 2.300926168 3.417426656 0.02931479 0.00085936 5.149846261 6.042038478 1.41005089 1.98824351 2.474316216 2.277231497 -0.88424102 0.78188219 6.321880691 5.032677497 -0.41683019 0.17374741 6.074672651 2.365650574 -3.19563161 10.2120614 1.190473955 5.835811494 2.93420028 8.60953127 5.43224512 5.202437593 0.04377285 0.00191606 6.05078141 2.055854712 -2.65030667 7.02412545 5.364639367 3.430293678 -0.84922381 0.72118108 1.060646358 0.56978409 -0.62602071 0.39190193 -1.519345086 -4.204015244 -2.71882964 7.39203459 10.24466811 4.419993 -1.42726972 2.03709885 2.155734109 1.677898308 -0.09502013 0.00902882 2.458317575 2.503980465 0.73810802 0.54480345 3.392852674 3.918271904 1.21776879 1.48296083 5.510743742 5.333022067 1.51802016 2.30438521 4.909213952 4.706555934 0.6525832 0.42586483 6.69341701 6.697515258 1.58862207 2.52372008 7.121996208 6.900627655 1.43235829 2.05165027 3.732242789 3.546804886 -0.08316483 0.00691639 2.531435448 1.651549245 -1.14508631 1.31122266 4.202587661 3.971800705 0.30620133 0.09375926 5.696393737 6.645328887 1.93582969 3.74743657 4.936976077 4.21297881 -0.20295407 0.04119035

y 0.55426132 4.90824428 6.89935156 0.00270228 1.63063768 1.58345884 7.39288067 1.46324912 0.11398517 0.00085936 1.98824351 0.78188219 0.17374741 10.2120614 8.60953127 0.00191606 7.02412545 0.72118108 0.39190193 7.39203459 2.03709885 0.00902882 0.54480345 1.48296083 2.30438521 0.42586483 2.52372008 2.05165027 0.00691639 1.31122266 0.09375926 3.74743657 0.04119035

x1 9.10 8.10 9.10 11.10 13.10 14.00 12.90 10.80 10.10 8.90 10.20 10.20 9.50 8.50 8.40 8.70 11.90 12.10 15.00 20.10 16.60 15.10 15.80 14.10 14.30 12.00 11.70 11.20 11.10 11.80 12.00 11.10 10.60

x2 5.03756887 3.92468717 2.73133391 0.1049672 1.80991138 1.76379166 3.61415428 4.5648153 4.67803723 2.30092617 5.14984626 2.47431622 6.32188069 6.07467265 1.19047395 5.43224512 6.05078141 5.36463937 1.06064636 -1.51934509 10.2446681 2.15573411 2.45831757 3.39285267 5.51074374 4.90921395 6.69341701 7.12199621 3.73224279 2.53143545 4.20258766 5.69639374 4.93697608

x1^2 82.81 65.61 82.81 123.21 171.61 196.00 166.41 116.64 102.01 79.21 104.04 104.04 90.25 72.25 70.56 75.69 141.61 146.41 225.00 404.01 275.56 228.01 249.64 198.81 204.49 144.00 136.89 125.44 123.21 139.24 144.00 123.21 112.36

x2^2 25.3771001 15.4031694 7.4601849 0.01101811 3.2757792 3.11096103 13.0621111 20.8375387 21.8840323 5.29426123 26.5209165 6.12224074 39.9661755 36.9016478 1.41722824 29.509287 36.6119557 28.7793555 1.1249707 2.30840949 104.953225 4.64718955 6.0433253 11.5114493 30.3682966 24.1003816 44.8018313 50.72283 13.9296362 6.40816543 17.661743 32.4489016 24.3737328

x1*x2 45.8418786 31.7899676 24.8551396 1.16513596 23.7098398 24.6930833 46.6225888 49.3000061 47.2481778 20.478242 52.5284309 25.2380249 60.0578666 51.6347175 9.99998077 47.2605315 72.0042965 64.9121384 15.9096954 -30.5388368 170.061495 32.5515859 38.8414182 47.839224 78.8036366 58.9105674 78.3129777 79.7663562 41.4278964 29.8709388 50.4310519 63.2299727 52.3319483


0.455400289 0.207389423 0.060609687 2.834754875 33


Intercepción Variable X 1 Variable X 2 Variable X 3 Variable X 4 Variable X 5

5 27 32


Coeficientes 25.2531166 -3.691145977 0.033015001 0.139006424 -0.008840701 0.008472478

Error típico 13.47991959 2.243396192 1.02101393 0.085511947 0.113392442 0.08112251

Pronóstico para Y 3.505168022 4.737783646 3.409616086 1.421617209 0.985671846 1.062272143 1.168244494 1.986631351 2.513871561 3.615278267 2.446260799 2.307049413 3.096786411 4.233382812 4.167283016 3.980419671 1.499325323 1.414831237

Residuos -2.950906706 0.170460637 3.489735478 -1.418914931 0.644965831 0.521186695 6.224636181 -0.523382227 -2.399886395 -3.614418911 -0.458017285 -1.525167224 -2.923039003 5.978678606 4.442248255 -3.978503609 5.524800128 -0.693650154

Análisis de los residuales Observación 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

1.32223861 6.891759827 3.135913802 1.517547026 1.991391173 1.259388089 1.476275067 1.424421841 1.583706669 1.811773608 1.75944671 1.332852011 1.386172147 1.84528747 2.136625415

-0.930336679 0.500274767 -1.098814956 -1.508518201 -1.446587722 0.223572741 0.828110139 -0.998557013 0.940013413 0.239876663 -1.75253032 -0.021629349 -1.292412891 1.902149104 -2.095435062

N*R^ 2 ajustado


2.000119672 chi calculado chi tabla

F 1.412929526

Estadístico t Probabilidad 1.873387778 0.071878115 -1.645338434 0.111493804 0.032335505 0.974442351 1.625578988 0.115656595 -0.077965523 0.938430409 0.104440526 0.917591744

2.000119672 11.07

Valor crítico de F 0.25128296

Inferior 95% -2.405393768 -8.294214745 -2.061932539 -0.036449598 -0.241502774 -0.157977164

Superior 95% 52.91162698 0.91192279 2.127962541 0.314462446 0.223821372 0.17492212

Resultados de datos de probabilidad Residuos estándares -1.133269174 0.065463874 1.340201517 -0.544921515 0.247693325 0.200157062 2.390515528 -0.201000236 -0.921654781 -1.388085067 -0.175897418 -0.585726752 -1.122566833 2.296057734 1.70600548 -1.52790852 2.121749788 -0.266390102

Percentil 1.515151515 4.545454545 7.575757576 10.60606061 13.63636364 16.66666667 19.6969697 22.72727273 25.75757576 28.78787879 31.81818182 34.84848485 37.87878788 40.90909091 43.93939394 46.96969697 50 53.03030303

Y 0.000859357 0.001916062 0.002702277 0.00691639 0.009028824 0.041190353 0.093759256 0.113985166 0.173747408 0.391901931 0.425864828 0.544803451 0.554261316 0.721181083 0.781882189 1.311222661 1.463249125 1.48296083

-0.357287432 0.192126024 -0.421989999 -0.579332845 -0.555549001 0.0858611 0.318028249 -0.383486838 0.361003695 0.092122475 -0.673043504 -0.008306557 -0.496339544 0.730503252 -0.804732985

56.06060606 59.09090909 62.12121212 65.15151515 68.18181818 71.21212121 74.24242424 77.27272727 80.3030303 83.33333333 86.36363636 89.39393939 92.42424242 95.45454545 98.48484848

1.583458838 1.630637677 1.988243514 2.037098846 2.051650271 2.304385206 2.523720081 3.747436574 4.908244283 6.899351564 7.024125451 7.392034594 7.392880675 8.609531271 10.21206142

Variable X 1 Gráfico de los residuales hay homoc

Residuos

10 5 0 0.00

5.00

10.00

-5

15.00

20.00

Variable X 1

Variable X 3 Gráfico de los residuales Residuos

10 5 0 0.00

50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00

-5

Variable X 3

Variable X 2 Curva de regresión ajustada

Y

Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0% -2.405393768 52.91162698 -8.294214745 0.91192279 -2.061932539 2.127962541 -0.036449598 0.314462446 -0.241502774 0.223821372 -0.157977164 0.17492212

-5

15 10 5 0

Y Pronóstico para Y 0

5 Variable X 2

10

15

residuales


10

20.00

25.00

5 0

-4

-2

0

2

4

-5

6

8

10

Variable X 2

Variable X 4 Gráfico de los residuales

residuales Residuos

10 5 0 0

350.00 400.00 450.00

20

40

-5

sión ajustada

60

80

100

Variable X 4

Variable X 3 Curva de regresión ajustada 15

Y Pronóstico para Y

Y

10 5

Y

0

Pronóstico para Y 0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

Variable X 3

400.00

500.00


duales Residuos

10

10

12

5 0

-50

0

50

-5

siduales

100

150

200

Variable X 5

Variable X 1 Curva de regresión ajustada 15 Y

10

100

120

5

Y

0

Pronóstico para Y 0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Variable X 1


ajustada

15 Y

10

Pronóstico para Y

5

Y

0

Pronóstico para Y 0

20

40

60 Variable X 4

80

100

120

Gráfico de probabilidad normal 15 Y

10 5 0

200

0

20

60

80

100

120

Muestra percentil

ustada

Variable X 5 Curva de regresión ajustada 15 Y

10

óstico para Y

onóstico para Y

40

-50

5

Y

0


50

100

Variable X 5

150

200

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Desempleo 9.10 8.10 9.10 11.10 13.10 14.00 12.90 10.80 10.10 8.90 10.20 10.20 9.50 8.50 8.40 8.70 11.90 12.10 15.00 20.10 16.60 15.10 15.80 14.10 14.30 12.00 11.70 11.20 11.10 11.80 12.00 11.10 10.60

VARIANZA

7.11632731

X2(% Crecimiento servicios) Y(% Crecim. PIB) 5.037568867 4.098199161 3.924687168 2.263216774 2.731333906 0.948480319 0.1049672 1.584376304 1.809911379 3.355101016 1.763791663 3.088264652 3.614154276 5.83829241 4.564815299 5.371506806 4.678037231 4.059821002 2.300926168 3.417426656 5.149846261 6.042038478 2.474316216 2.277231497 6.321880691 5.032677497 6.074672651 2.365650574 1.190473955 5.835811494 5.43224512 5.202437593 6.05078141 2.055854712 5.364639367 3.430293678 1.060646358 0.56978409 -1.519345086 -4.204015244 10.24466811 4.419993 2.155734109 1.677898308 2.458317575 2.503980465 3.392852674 3.918271904 5.510743742 5.333022067 4.909213952 4.706555934 6.69341701 6.697515258 7.121996208 6.900627655 3.732242789 3.546804886 2.531435448 1.651549245 4.202587661 3.971800705 5.696393737 6.645328887 4.936976077 4.21297881

5.18821785

8 6 4 2 0 0.00

5.00

-2 -4 -6

scrn1 scrn2

10.00

Series1 Linear (Series1) 10.00

15.00

C N

13.9774841 2.52460342

20.00

25.00

4 14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

Desempleo 20.10 16.60 15.80 15.10 15.00 14.30 14.10 14.00 13.10 12.90 12.10 12.00 12.00 11.90 11.80 11.70 11.20 11.10 11.10 11.10 10.80 10.60 10.20 10.20 10.10 9.50 9.10 9.10 8.90 8.70 8.50 8.40 8.10

X2(% Crecimiento servicios) Y(% Crecim. PIB) -1.519345086 -4.204015244 10.24466811 4.419993 2.458317575 2.503980465 2.155734109 1.677898308 1.060646358 0.56978409 5.510743742 5.333022067 3.392852674 3.918271904 1.763791663 3.088264652 1.809911379 3.355101016 3.614154276 5.83829241 5.364639367 3.430293678 4.909213952 4.706555934 4.202587661 3.971800705 6.05078141 2.055854712 2.531435448 1.651549245 6.69341701 6.697515258 7.121996208 6.900627655 0.1049672 1.584376304 3.732242789 3.546804886 5.696393737 6.645328887 4.564815299 5.371506806 4.936976077 4.21297881 5.149846261 6.042038478 2.474316216 2.277231497 4.678037231 4.059821002 6.321880691 5.032677497 5.037568867 4.098199161 2.731333906 0.948480319 2.300926168 3.417426656 5.43224512 5.202437593 6.074672651 2.365650574 1.190473955 5.835811494 3.924687168 2.263216774

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14


0.908833418 0.825978182 0.791173819 1.182264101 13



2 10 12


Coeficientes 11.24876941 -0.688983396 0.473316036

Error típico 2.495525091 0.159582322 0.127763291

Pronóstico para Y -3.318927507 4.660610471 1.52639275 1.865463389 1.416039398 4.004630097 3.13999484 2.437832743 3.079746738 4.071521038 5.451239893 5.304578344 4.970120789

Residuos -0.885087737 -0.240617472 0.977587715 -0.187565081 -0.846255308 1.32839197 0.778277063 0.650431909 0.275354279 1.766771371 -2.020946215 -0.59802241 -0.998320084

Análisis de los residuales Observación 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13


F 23.73202947

Estadístico t Probabilidad 4.507576161 0.001129804 -4.317416792 0.001519271 3.704632466 0.00407723


Inferior 95%

Superior 95% 5.688392998 16.80914582 -1.044554967 -0.333411825 0.188641683 0.757990388

Resultados de datos de probabilidad Residuos estándares -0.820091752 -0.222947845 0.905799039 -0.173791331 -0.784110964 1.230842155 0.721124668 0.60266776 0.255133772 1.637029379 -1.872539018 -0.554106927 -0.925008937

Percentil 3.846153846 11.53846154 19.23076923 26.92307692 34.61538462 42.30769231 50 57.69230769 65.38461538 73.07692308 80.76923077 88.46153846 96.15384615

Y -4.204015244 0.56978409 1.677898308 2.503980465 3.088264652 3.355101016 3.430293678 3.918271904 3.971800705 4.419993 4.706555934 5.333022067 5.83829241


2 0 0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

-2 -4

Variable X 1

Variable X 1 Curva de regresión ajustada 10 5 Y

Y

Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0% 5.688392998 16.80914582 -1.044554967 -0.333411825 0.188641683 0.757990388

0 0.00 -5

5.00

10.00

15.00

Variable X 1

20.00

25.00

Pronóstico para Y

residuales


20.00

25.00

Residuos

2

-4

0 -2

0

2

-4

sión ajustada

4

6

8

10

-2 Variable X 2

Variable X 2 Curva de regresión ajustada 10

Y

Y

Y

Pronóstico para Y

5 0 -5

0 -5

5 Variable X 2

10

15

Pronóstico para Y

Gráfico de probabilidad normal 10

12

Y

5 0 0 -5

ustada

Pronóstico para Y

20

40


80

100

120


0.491293233 0.24136904 0.124656585 1.588900067 16



2 13 15


Coeficientes -0.853551815 0.313502116 0.432177751

Error típico 3.949005977 0.389713934 0.227976769

Pronóstico para Y 2.67168628 4.239314088 5.088176428 4.505082709 4.603221953 4.569818685 3.413514126 4.334563287 4.856894468 4.176442745 3.179739305 2.931025995 4.221612015 4.436554537 2.294362196 3.381977919

Residuos -1.087309976 -0.692509202 1.557152459 0.866424098 -0.390243143 1.472219792 -1.13628263 -0.274742285 0.175783028 -0.078243584 -2.231258986 0.486400661 0.980825578 -2.070903963 3.541449298 -1.118761145

Análisis de los residuales Observación 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16


F 2.068065826

Estadístico t Probabilidad -0.21614346 0.832230535 0.80444164 0.435607031 1.89570961 0.080447559


Inferior 95%

Superior 95% -9.384860552 7.677756923 -0.528423652 1.155427884 -0.060336114 0.924691617

Resultados de datos de probabilidad Residuos estándares -0.73507346 -0.468169286 1.052709412 0.585744059 -0.263822998 0.995290874 -0.768181312 -0.185738903 0.11883772 -0.052896399 -1.508437611 0.328830071 0.663084922 -1.400029959 2.39418882 -0.756335952

Percentil 3.125 9.375 15.625 21.875 28.125 34.375 40.625 46.875 53.125 59.375 65.625 71.875 78.125 84.375 90.625 96.875

Y 0.948480319 1.584376304 2.263216774 2.277231497 2.365650574 3.417426656 3.546804886 4.059821002 4.098199161 4.21297881 5.032677497 5.202437593 5.371506806 5.835811494 6.042038478 6.645328887


4 2 0 -2

0.00

2.00

4.00

-4

6.00

8.00

10.00

Variable X 1

Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0% -9.384860552 7.677756923 -0.528423652 1.155427884 -0.060336114 0.924691617

Y

Variable X 1 Curva de regresión ajustada 8 6 4 2 0

Y Pronóstico para Y 0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00 Variable X 1

8.00

10.00

12.00

residuales


10.00

12.00

Residuos

4 2 0 -2

0

1

2

3

-4

6

Variable X 2 Curva de regresión ajustada Y

Pronóstico para Y

5

Variable X 2

ión ajustada

Y

4

8 6 4

Y

2 0


2

4 Variable X 2

6

8

Gráfico de probabilidad normal Y

duales

7

8 6 4 2 0 0

20

40


n ajustada

Pronóstico para Y

80

100

120

120

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Desempleo 9.10 8.10 9.10 11.10 13.10 14.00 12.90 10.80 10.10 8.90 10.20 10.20 9.50 8.50 8.40 8.70 11.90 12.10 15.00 20.10 16.60 15.10 15.80 14.10 14.30 12.00 11.70 11.20 11.10 11.80 12.00 11.10 10.60

Y(% Crecim. PIB) 4.098199161 2.263216774 0.948480319 1.584376304 3.355101016 3.088264652 5.83829241 5.371506806 4.059821002 3.417426656 6.042038478 2.277231497 5.032677497 2.365650574 5.835811494 5.202437593 2.055854712 3.430293678 0.56978409 -4.204015244 4.419993 1.677898308 2.503980465 3.918271904 5.333022067 4.706555934 6.697515258 6.900627655 3.546804886 1.651549245 3.971800705 6.645328887 4.21297881


0.435370263 0.189547266 0.163403629 2.027070426 33


Intercepción Variable X 1

1 31 32


Coeficientes 7.801239023 -0.356171916

Error típico 1.599474806 0.13227687

Pronóstico para Y 4.560074448 4.916246364 4.560074448 3.847730615 3.135386782 2.814832193 3.206621437 3.954582258 4.203902531 4.631309103 4.168285543 4.168285543 4.417605817 4.773777733 4.809395061 4.702543418 3.562793353 3.491558698 2.458660276 0.642183367 1.888785074 2.423042949

Residuos -0.461875286 -2.65302959 -3.611594128 -2.263354311 0.219714234 0.273432459 2.631670973 1.416924549 -0.144081529 -1.213882447 1.873752934 -1.891054047 0.61507168 -2.408127159 1.026416433 0.499894174 -1.506938641 -0.06126502 -1.888876187 -4.84619861 2.531207925 -0.745144641

Análisis de los residuales Observación 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

2.173722675 2.779214865 2.70798055 3.527176026 3.634027669 3.812113627 3.847730615 3.598410341 3.527176026 3.847730615 4.025816573

0.33025779 1.139057038 2.625041517 1.179379908 3.063487589 3.088514028 -0.300925729 -1.946861096 0.444624679 2.797598272 0.187162237

Varianza del Error


3.859983331

F 7.250225692

Estadístico t Probabilidad 4.87737537 3.05146E-05 -2.692624313 0.011331033


Inferior 95%

Superior 95% 4.53908865 11.0633894 -0.625952372 -0.086391461

Resultados de datos de probabilidad Residuos estándares -0.231499485 -1.329742037 -1.81019034 -1.134430382 0.110124386 0.137048843 1.319036747 0.710185873 -0.072216031 -0.608417835 0.939155769 -0.947827371 0.308284036 -1.206992914 0.514456787 0.250555177 -0.755302416 -0.030707035 -0.946735792 -2.428994399 1.268683017 -0.373478742

Percentil

Y 1.515151515 -4.204015244 4.545454545 0.56978409 7.575757576 0.948480319 10.60606061 1.584376304 13.63636364 1.651549245 16.66666667 1.677898308 19.6969697 2.055854712 22.72727273 2.263216774 25.75757576 2.277231497 28.78787879 2.365650574 31.81818182 2.503980465 34.84848485 3.088264652 37.87878788 3.355101016 40.90909091 3.417426656 43.93939394 3.430293678 46.96969697 3.546804886 50 3.918271904 53.03030303 3.971800705 56.06060606 4.059821002 59.09090909 4.098199161 62.12121212 4.21297881 65.15151515 4.419993

0.165530633 0.57091411 1.315713955 0.591124595 1.535470333 1.548013996 -0.150828922 -0.975798781 0.222853197 1.402202237 0.09380879

68.18181818 71.21212121 74.24242424 77.27272727 80.3030303 83.33333333 86.36363636 89.39393939 92.42424242 95.45454545 98.48484848

4.706555934 5.032677497 5.202437593 5.333022067 5.371506806 5.835811494 5.83829241 6.042038478 6.645328887 6.697515258 6.900627655


5 0 0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

-5 -10

Variable X 1

Gráfico de probabilidad normal Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0% 4.53908865 11.0633894 -0.625952372 -0.086391461

10

Y

5 0 0 -5

Residuos -0.461875286 -2.65302959 -3.611594128 -2.263354311 0.219714234 0.273432459 2.631670973 1.416924549 -0.144081529 -1.213882447 1.873752934 -1.891054047 0.61507168 -2.408127159 1.026416433 0.499894174 -1.506938641 -0.06126502 -1.888876187 -4.84619861 2.531207925

Variable P 0.055266762 1.82347057 3.379188724 1.327148927 0.012506361 0.019369335 1.794228502 0.520125349 0.005378129 0.381740145 0.909576482 0.926450998 0.098009017 1.502357891 0.272936592 0.064739706 0.588309294 0.000972388 0.924318305 6.08438922 1.659855241

20

40


80

-0.745144641 0.33025779 1.139057038 2.625041517 1.179379908 3.063487589 3.088514028 -0.300925729 -1.946861096 0.444624679 2.797598272 0.187162237

0.14384532 0.028256653 0.336128637 1.785200188 0.360347921 2.431346305 2.471233186 0.023460281 0.981938988 0.051215533 2.027613961 0.009075092


residuales 10 5

Y

Y

20.00

25.00

0 0.00 -5

dad normal

100

120

5.00

10.00

15.00

Variable X 1

20.00

25.00

Pronóstico para Y

ustada

Pronóstico para Y


0.393115682 0.154539939 0.127267034 2.070387038 33


Intercepción Variable X 1

1 31 32


Coeficientes 4.279466545 -0.678897557

Error típico 0.459600997 0.285200038

Pronóstico para Y 4.241946075 3.041516829 1.985343574 3.37846838 4.270976007 4.266316751 3.061369198 3.926354716 4.275815347 4.020304093 3.661957293 3.650501226 4.212928463 3.259519443 4.09417056 4.235514917 3.880064802 4.278806393 3.651949106 0.148789565 3.152594876 4.181810309

Residuos -0.143746914 -0.778300055 -1.036863255 -1.794092076 -0.915874991 -1.178052099 2.776923212 1.44515209 -0.215994344 -0.602877438 2.380081184 -1.373269729 0.819749034 -0.893868869 1.741640935 0.966922676 -1.82421009 -0.848512715 -3.082165016 -4.352804809 1.267398123 -2.503912001

Análisis de los residuales Observación 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

4.260283173 4.051269634 3.067498498 4.034827222 2.628831478 2.601752372 4.263539417 3.612830564 4.244696445 2.90292438 4.273305487

-1.756302707 -0.132997731 2.265523569 0.671728712 4.06868378 4.298875284 -0.716734532 -1.961281319 -0.27289574 3.742404507 -0.060326677

suma de cuadrados explicada 12.14457774 la suma de cuadrados explicada es igual al chi calculado Chi de la tabla 5.9915 Hay heterosedasticidad


F 5.666427478

Estadístico t Probabilidad 9.311264716 1.71252E-10 -2.380425903 0.023623989


Inferior 95%

Superior 95% 3.342104132 5.216828958 -1.260566869 -0.097228245

Resultados de datos de probabilidad Residuos estándares -0.070540922 -0.38193518 -0.508819898 -0.880414792 -0.449447328 -0.578105498 1.362719508 0.709179475 -0.105994903 -0.295850041 1.167977222 -0.673904644 0.402275437 -0.438648263 0.854675443 0.474497958 -0.895194604 -0.416390638 -1.512510816 -2.136051872 0.621950272 -1.228744718

Percentil

Y 1.515151515 -4.204015244 4.545454545 0.56978409 7.575757576 0.948480319 10.60606061 1.584376304 13.63636364 1.651549245 16.66666667 1.677898308 19.6969697 2.055854712 22.72727273 2.263216774 25.75757576 2.277231497 28.78787879 2.365650574 31.81818182 2.503980465 34.84848485 3.088264652 37.87878788 3.355101016 40.90909091 3.417426656 43.93939394 3.430293678 46.96969697 3.546804886 50 3.918271904 53.03030303 3.971800705 56.06060606 4.059821002 59.09090909 4.098199161 62.12121212 4.21297881 65.15151515 4.419993

-0.861870415 -0.065265975 1.111760365 0.329637426 1.996625162 2.109587037 -0.351723132 -0.962459568 -0.133918124 1.836510137 -0.02960411

68.18181818 71.21212121 74.24242424 77.27272727 80.3030303 83.33333333 86.36363636 89.39393939 92.42424242 95.45454545 98.48484848

4.706555934 5.032677497 5.202437593 5.333022067 5.371506806 5.835811494 5.83829241 6.042038478 6.645328887 6.697515258 6.900627655


5

0 0

1

2

3

-5

4

5

Variable X 1

Gráfico de probabilidad normal

Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0% 3.342104132 5.216828958 -1.260566869 -0.097228245

10

Y

5 0 0 -5

20

40


80


residuales 10 5 Y 6

0

7

0 -5

abilidad normal

ra percentil

Y

80

100

120

2

4 Variable X 1

6

8

Pronóstico para Y

n ajustada

Pronóstico para Y

20 19 3 4 30 22 17 2 12 14 23 6 5 10 18 29 24 31 9 1 33 21 26 13 16 25 8 15 7 11 32 27 28

Y(% Crecim. PIB) -4.204015244 0.56978409 0.948480319 1.584376304 1.651549245 1.677898308 2.055854712 2.263216774 2.277231497 2.365650574 2.503980465 3.088264652 3.355101016 3.417426656 3.430293678 3.546804886 3.918271904 3.971800705 4.059821002 4.098199161 4.21297881 4.419993 4.706555934 5.032677497 5.202437593 5.333022067 5.371506806 5.835811494 5.83829241 6.042038478 6.645328887 6.697515258 6.900627655

2 15 14 16 10 1 3 13 9 11 12 33 8 4 29 32 28 27 30 17 26 31 18 7 5 6 24 25 19 22 23 21 20

X Desempleo 8.10 8.40 8.50 8.70 8.90 9.10 9.10 9.50 10.10 10.20 10.20 10.60 10.80 11.10 11.10 11.10 11.20 11.70 11.80 11.90 12.00 12.00 12.10 12.90 13.10 14.00 14.10 14.30 15.00 15.10 15.80 16.60 20.10

Diferencai de pocision 1 a la 2 18 4 -11 -12 20 21 14 -11 3 3 11 -27 -3 6 -11 -3 -4 4 -21 -16 7 -10 8 6 11 19 -16 -10 -12 -11 9 6 8

Elevado al cuadrado 324 16 121 144 400 441 196 121 9 9 121 729 9 36 121 9 16 16 441 256 49 100 64 36 121 361 256 100 144 121 81 36 64 5068 sumatoria de cuadrados

r Desviacion etandar Z calculado Z tabla Hay homocedasticidad

0.15307487 0.1767767 0.86592221 1.96 omocedasticidad

Modelo Econ (1)

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