Outlook Tebu 2016

E OUTLOOK ISSN T TEBU BU 1907-1507 2016

OUTLOOK TEBU

Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian Sekretariat Jenderal - Kementerian Pertanian 201

Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian

i

2016

ii

OUTLOOK T EBU


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

OUTLOOK TEBU

ISSN : 1907-1507

Ukuran Buku : 10,12 inci x 7,17 inci (B5) Jumla! "alaman : 84 halaman Penase!at # Dr. Ir. Suwani, !Si. Pen$untin% # Dr. Ir. "#li Nur$a%i, !Sc. Drh &'ar a*in, !+. &aska! # Diah Inar%i, S h#n$ #ncana +u%ra /, S.Si Desi%n Sam'ul # Diah Inar%i, S

Diter(itkan ole! # Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian Sekretariat Jenderal - Kementerian Pertanian 201

Boleh dikutip dengan menyebut sumbernya


iii

2016

iv

OUTLOOK T EBU


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

K)T) PE&*)&T)+

una m#n#man i*i an mi*in$a, +u*a% Da%a an Si*%#m In3rma*i +#r%anian m#muli'a*i'an a%a *#'%r #r%anian *#r%a ha*il anali*i* a%an$a. Salah *a%u ha*il anali*i* $an %#lah iuli'a*i'an *#cara r#ul#r aalah 6u%l' mi%i +#r'#unan. +uli'a*i 6u%l' #u ahun 201 m#n$ai'an '#raaan a%a *#ri#* 'mi%i %#uula *#cara na*inal an in%#rna*inal *#lama 10-20 %ahun %#ra'hir *#r%a il#n'ai #nan ha*il anali*i* r$#'*i ru'*i an 'n*um*i m#*%i' ari %ahun 201 *amai #nan %ahun 2020. +uli'a*i ini i*ai'an %ia' han$a alam #n%u' har c$ namun aa% #nan muah i#rl#h a%au ia'*#* m#lalui r%al #-+uli'a*i #m#n%#rian +#r%anian i alama% h%%:#uli'a*i.*#%#n.#r%anian..i. D#nan i%#ri%'ann$a uli'a*i ini ihara'an ara #maca aa% m#m#rl#h amaran %#n%an '#raaan an r$#'*i 'mi%i %#uula *#cara l#ih l#n'a an m#n$#luruh. #aa *#mua iha' $an %#lah %#rlia% alam #n$u*unan uli'a*i ini, 'ami uca'an %#rima 'a*ih an #nharaan $an *#%ini-%inin$a. ri%i' an *aran ari

*##na

#maca

*ana% ihara'an una iai'an

a*ar

#n$#murnaan an #rai'an un%u' #n#ri%an uli'a*i #ri'u%n$a.

;a'ar%a, D#*#m#r 201 #ala +u*a% Da%a an Si*%#m In3rma*i +#r%anian,

Dr. Ir. Suwani, !Si. NI+.1970<2<.19920<.1.00<


v

2016

vi

OUTLOOK T EBU


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

D),T)+ ISI Halaman

K)T) PE&*)&T)+ ....................................................................................................................  D),T)+ ISI............................................................................................................................... ii D),T)+ T)BEL......................................................................................................................... .i D),T)+ *)/B)+ .................................................................................................................. .iii D),T)+ L)/PI+)&................................................................................................................ . +I&*K)S)& EKSEKUTI,...................................................................................................... .ii B)B I PE&D)"ULU)&............................................................................................................1 1.1. "&& B"&&N..............................................................................................1 1.2. =;=&N................................................................................................................< 1.<. =&N "IN=+................................................................................................ <

B)B II /ETODOLO*I ...............................................................................................................  2.1. S=!B D&& D&N IN>6!&SI...................................................................... 5 2.2. !6D &N&"ISIS.............................................................................................. 

B)B III KE+)*))& TEBU &)SIO&)L ................................................................................ 1 <.1. +!B&N&N "=&S &&", +6D=SI D&N +6D=I?I&S B= DI IND6NSI& ........................................................................................ 1< <.1.1. +#r'#manan "ua* &r#al #u i Inn#*ia.......................... 1< <.1.2. +#r'#manan +ru'*i #u i Inn#*ia............................... 14 <.1.<. +#r'#manan +ru'%ii%a* #u i Inn#*ia...................... 15 <.2. SN& "=&S +&NN D&N +6D=SI B= DI IND6NSI&.................... 1 <.2.1. S#n%ra "ua* +an#n #u i Inn#*ia......................................... 1 <.2.2. S#n%ra +ru'*i #u i Inn#*ia.............................................. 17 <.2.<. S#n%ra +ru'*i #u i +rin*i ;awa imur..........................18 <.2.4. S#n%ra +ru'*i #u i +rin*i "amun............................... 19 <.2.5. S#n%ra +ru'*i #u i +rin*i ;awa #nah........................ 20 <.2.. S#n%ra +ru'*i #u i +rin*i ;awa Bara%........................... 21 <.2.7. S#n%ra +ru'*i #u i +rin*i Suma%#ra S#la%an...............22


vii

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

<.<. +!B&N&N @&& ="& DI IND6NSI& ........................... 2< <.4. +!B&N&N 6NS=!SI ="& DI IND6NSI& ....................... 24 <.5. +!B&N&N S+6 D&N I!+6 ="& IND6NSI& ............... 25 <.5.1. +#r'#m(anan ?lum# '*r-Imr !la*# Inn#*ia ..... 25 <.5.2. +#r'#m(anan ?lum# Imr ula Inn#*ia ................. 2 <.5.<. N#raca +#raanan !la*# Inn#*ia ......................... 27

B)B I3 KE+)*))& TEBU )SE)& D)& DU&I)  24 4.1. +!B&N&N "=&S +&NN, +6D=SI D&N +6D=I?I&S B= &S&N D&N D=NI& .......................................................... 29 4.1.1. +#r'#m(anan "ua* +an#n #(u i N#ara-n#ara &S&N .. 29 4.1.2. S#n%ra "ua* +an#n #(u i N#ara-n#ara &S&N ............ <0 4.1.<. +#r'#m(anan +ru'*i #(u i N#ara-n#ara &S&N ..... <1 4.1.4. S#n%ra +ru'*i #(u i N#ara-n#ara &S&N ............... <2 4.1.5. +#r'#m(anan +ru'%ii%a* #(u i N#ara-n#ara &S&N << 4.1.. a%a-ra%a +ru'%ii%a* #(u i N#ara-n#ara &S&N ...... <4 4.1.7. +#r'#m(anan "ua* +an#n #(u Dunia ........................ <5 4.1.8. S#n%ra "ua* +an#n #(u Dunia .................................. <5 4.1.9. +#r'#m(anan +ru'*i #(u Dunia ............................ < 4.1.10. S#n%ra +ru'*i #(u Dunia .................................... <7 4.1.11. +#r'#m(anan +ru'%ii%a* #(u Dunia ..................... <7

4.2. +!B&N&N S+6 D&N I!+6 ="& &S&N D&N D=NI& ..... <8 4.2.1. +#r'#m(anan ?lum# '*r an Imr ula &S&N ....... <8 4.2.2. +#r'#m(anan Nilai '*r an Imr ula &S&N .......... <9 4.2.<. +#r'#m(anan ?lum# '*r an Imr ula Dunia ........ 40 4.2.4. +#r'#m(anan Nilai '*r an Imr ula Dunia ........... 41

4.<. +!B&N&N SDI&&N ="& &S&N D&N D=NI& ............ 42 4.<.1. +#r'#manan #%#r*#iaan ula &S&N ..................... 42 4.<.2. +#r'#manan #%#r*#iaan ula Dunia ...................... 4<

B)B 3 )&)LISIS P+ODUKSI D)& KO&SU/SI  5 5.1. +6SI +6D=SI B= DI IND6NSI& &@=N 201-2020 ......... 45 5.2. +6SI 6NS=!SI B= DI IND6NSI& &@=N 201-2020 ......... 47 viii


OUTLOOK T EBU

5.<.

2016

+6SI S=+"=SD>ISI ="& DI IND6NSI& &@=N 201-2020.......................................................................................... 50

5.4. +6SI SDI&&N ="& DI &S&N &@=N 2014-2020............. 51 5.5. +6SI SDI&&N ="& DI D=NI& &@=N 2014-2020..............52

B)B 3I KESI/PUL)&............................................................................................................. .1. SI!+="&N..................................................................................................... 55

D),T)+ PUST)K)..................................................................................................................6 L)/PI+)&-L)/PI+)&............................................................................................................1


i

2016



OUTLOOK T EBU


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

D),T)+ T)BEL Halaman

a#l 2.1.

Sum#r Da%a an In3rma*i $an Diuna'an............................................. 5

a#l 5.1.

@a*il +r$#'*i +ru'*i #u i Inn#*ia, 201-2020......................... 4

a#l 5.2.

@a*il +r$#'*i n*um*i "an*un ula #u i umah ana

Inn#*ia, 201-2020.....................................................................................48 a#l 5.<.

+rr*i n*um*i umah ana %#rhaa +ru'*i ula

Inn#*ia, 2002-2015.....................................................................................49 a#l 5.4.

@a*il +r$#'*i n*um*i ula S#%ia S#'%r i a#l Inu% an

6u%u% ula, 201-2020............................................................................... 50 a#l 5.5.

+r$#'*i D#3i*i% ula i Inn#*ia, 201-2020........................................ 51

a#l 5..

@a*il +r$#'*i #%#r*#iaan ula i &S&N, 2014-2020....................... 52

a#l 5.7.

@a*il +r$#'*i #%#r*#iaan #u i Dunia, 2014-2020........................ 5<


i

2016

ii

OUTLOOK T EBU


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

D),T)+ *)/B)+ Halaman

amar <.1.

+#r'#manan "ua* +an#n #u Inn#*ia !#nuru% S%a%u* +#nu*ahaan i Inn#*ia, 1980-201 ................................

amar <.2.

+#r'#manan +ru'*i #u !#nuru% S%a%u* +#nu*ahaan i Inn#*ia, 1980-201.................................................

amar <.<.

19

aua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i ;awa #nah, ahun 2014 .....................................................

amar <.9.

18

aua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i "amun, ahun 2014 ...................................................

amar <.8.

17

aua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i ;awa imur, ahun 2014 ......................................................

amar <.7.

1

+rin*i S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i Inn#*ia, a%a-ra%a 2012-201 .......................................

amar <..

15

+rin*i S#n%ra "ua* +an#n #u (+ +BN an +BS) i Inn#*ia, a%a-ra%a 2012-201 .......................................

amar <.5.

14

+#r'#manan +ru'%ii%a* #u !#nuru% S%a%u* +#nu*ahaan i Inn#*ia, 1980-201 ................................

amar <.4.

1<

20

aua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i ;awa Bara%, ahun 2014 .......................................................

21

amar <.10. aua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i Suma%#ra S#la%an, ahun 2014 ........................................

22

amar <.11. +#r'#manan a%a-ra%a @ara ula i +a*ar Dalam N##ri, 1997-201< .................................................................

2<

amar <.12. +#r'#manan n*um*i ula +#r ai%a +#r ahun, 2002-2015 .................................................................

24

amar <.1<. +#r'#manan ?lum# '*r-Imr !la*# Inn#*ia, 1980-2015 .................................................................

25

am(ar <.14. +#r'#m(anan ?lum# Imr ula Inn#*ia, 1980-2015 .........

2


iii

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

amar <.15. +#r'#manan Nilai '*r an Nilai Imr +#raanan !la*# Inn#*ia, 1980-2015 ........................................... 27

amar 4.1.

+#r'#manan "ua* +an#n #u i awa*an &S&N, 1980-201< ................................................................. 29

amar 4.2.

S#n%ra "ua* +an#n #u N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N, a%a-ra%a 2009-201< ..................................................... <0

amar 4.<.

+#r'#m(anan +ru'*i #(u i awa*an &S&N, 1980-201< ..... <1

amar 4.4.

S#n%ra +ru'*i #u N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N, a%a-ra%a 2009-201< ..................................................... <<

amar 4.5.

+#r'#manan +ru'%ii%a* #u i awa*an &S&N, 1980-201< ................................................................. <<

amar 4..

+ru'%ii%a* #u N#ara-n#ara &S&N, a%a-ra%a 2009-201< ................................................................. <4

amar 4.7.

+#r'#m(anan "ua* +an#n #(u Dunia, 1980-201< ................. <5

amar 4.8.

S#n%ra "ua* +an#n #u Dunia, a%a-ra%a 2009-201< .............. <

amar 4.9.

+#r'#m(anan +ru'*i #(u Dunia, 1980-201< .................... <

amar 4.10. S#n%ra +ru'*i ula Dunia, a%a-ra%a 2009-201< .................. <7 amar 4.11. +#r'#manan +ru'%ii%a* #u Dunia, 1980-201< .............. <8 amar 4.12. +#r'#manan ?lum# '*r an Imr ula i &S&N, 1980-201< ................................................................. <9 amar 4.1<. +#r'#manan Nilai '*r an Imr ula &S&N, 1980-201< ................................................................. 40 amar 4.14. +#r'#manan ?lum# '*r an Imr ula Dunia, 1980-201< ................................................................. 40 am(ar 4.15. +#r'#m(anan Nilai '*r an Imr ula Dunia, 1980-201< .... 41

amar 4.1. +#r'#manan #%#r*#iaan ula &S&N, 1980-201< .............. 42 amar 4.17. +#r'#manan #%#r*#iaan ula Dunia, 1980-201< ............... 4<

iv


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

D),T)+ L)/PI+)& Halaman

"amiran 1.

+#r'#manan "ua* +an#n #u i Inn#*ia !#nuru% S%a%u* +#nu*ahaan, 1980-201AA) ..................................

"amiran 2.

+#r'#manan +ru'*i #u i Inn#*ia !#nuru% S%a%u* +#nu*ahaan, 1980-201AA) ..........................................

"amiran <.

5

B##raa +rin*i #nan "ua* +an#n #u (++BN+BS) #r(#*ar i Inn#*ia, 2012-201A) .................................

"amiran 5.

4

+#r'#manan +ru'%ii%a* #u i Inn#*ia !#nuru% S%a%u* +#nu*ahaan, 1980-201AA) ..................................

"amiran 4.

<



B##raa +rin*i #nan +ru'*i #u (++BN+BS) #r(#*ar i Inn#*ia, 2012-201A) .................................



"amiran .

a(ua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #(u i ;awa imur, 2014 ..........

7

"amiran 7.

a(ua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #(u i "amun, 2014 .............

7

"amiran 8.

a(ua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #(u i ;awa #nah, 2014.........

7

"amiran 9.

a(ua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #(u i ;awa Bara%, 2014 ...........

8

"amiran 10.

a(ua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #(u i Suma%#ra S#la%an, 2014 ...

8

"amiran 11.

+#r'#manan @ara ula i +a*ar Dalam N##ri, 1997C2014 ..............................................................

8

"amiran 12.

+#r'#m(anan n*um*i ula i Inn#*ia, 2002-2015 .........

9

"amiran 1<.

+#r'#manan ?lum#, Nilai an N#raca '*r an Imr !la*# Inn#*ia, 1980-2015 ........................................

"amiran 14.

+#r'#manan ?lum# an Nilai Imr ula Inn#*ia, 1980-2015 ..............................................................

"amiran 15.

71

+#r'#manan "ua* +an#n, +ru'*i an +ru'%ii%a* #(u i N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N, 1980-201< ..............

"amiran 1.

70

72

S#n%ra "ua* +an#n #u N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N, a%a-ra%a 2009-201< ..................................................


7<

v

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

"amiran 17.

S#n%ra +ru'*i #u N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N, a%a-ra%a 2009-201< .................................................. 7<

"amiran 18.

N#ara-n#ara #nan +ru'%ii%a* #u #r#*ar i &S&N, 2009-201< ..................................................... 74

"amiran 19.

+#r'#manan "ua* anaman +an#n, +ru'*i an +ru'%ii%a* #(u Dunia, 1980-201< ............................... 75

"amiran 20.

N#ara-n#ara #nan "ua* +an#n #u #r#*ar i Dunia, 2009-201< ...............................................................

"amiran 21.

N#ara-n#ara #nan +ru'*i #u #r#*ar i Dunia, 2009-201< ...............................................................

"amiran 22.

7

7

+#r'#manan ?lum# an Nilai '*r an Imr #u &S&N, 1980-2012 ..................................................... 77

"amiran 2<.

+#r'#manan ?lum# an Nilai '*r an Imr #u Dunia, 1980-201< ...................................................... 78

"amiran 24.

+#r'#m(anan #%#r*#iaan #(u i &S&N, 1980-201< ........

79

"amiran 25.

+#r'#m(anan #%#r*#iaan #(u i Dunia, 1980-201< .........

80

"amiran 2.

a#l Inu% 6u%u% ran*a'*i %al &%a* Da*ar @ara +ru*#n, 2005 ........................................................

vi


81

OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

+I&*K)S)& EKSEKUTI,

+ru'*i #u Inn#*ia i %ahun 2014, #ra*ar'an &n'a #%a S%a%i*%i' +#r'#unan Inn#*ia (Di%#n +#r'#unan, 2015), %#rca%a% *##*ar 2.579.17< %n. +ru'*i ini #ra*al ari 477.12< ha lua* an#n #r'#unan %#u $an han$a #raa i +rin*i Suma%#ra =%ara, rn%al, "amun, Suma%#ra S#la%an, ;awa Bara%, DI $a'ar%a, ;awa #nah, ;awa imur, an Sulaw#*i S#la%an. S#n%ra ru'*i #u i Inn#*ia ra%a-ra%a %ahun 2012-201 (an'a *#m#n%ara) u%aman$a aalah +rin*i ;awa imur #nan ra%a-ra%a ru'*i m#ncaai 1.28<.810 %n a%au 49,14 ru'*i %#u na*inal. S#n%ra ru'*i %#u lainn$a aalah "amun #nan ra%a-ra%a ru'*i 759.9<5 %n (29,09), ;awa #nah #nan ra%a-ra%a ru'*i 274.94 %n (10,52), ;awa Bara% ra%a-ra%a ru'*i 87.211 %n (<,<4), an Suma%#ra S#la%an #nan ra%a-ra%a ru'*i 89.59 %n (<,4<). a%a-ra%a hara ula i a*ar m#*%i' aa %ahun 2014 m#ncaai .10.859 #r ', l#ih r#nah i'a ianin'an hara ula %ahun *##lumn$a $an han$a .11.92< #r '. in'a% 'n*um*i ula aa %ahun 2015 #ra*ar'an

ha*il

S=SN&S

$an

ila'u'an

l#h

B+S

m#ncaai

,805

''ai%a%ahun. B#ra*ar'an a%a >&6, aa %ahun 201<, Inn#*ia i'#nal *#aai ru*#n '#%ia #nan lua* an#n %#u %#r#*ar '#ua ian%ara n#ara-n#ara an%a &S&N. &aun i unia, Inn#*ia %#rca%a% *#aai #nha*il %#u %#r#*ar '#*#uluh #nan lua* an#n %#u %#r#*ar '#%uuh i unia. @a*il r$#'*i ru'*i %#u i %ahun 2020 m#ncaai 2.80<.800 %n. S#m#n%ara r$#'*i 'n*um*i lan*un ula i%ahun $an *ama m#ncaai 1.<0.75< %n. +r$#'*i 'n*um*i ini #lum m#namar'an 'n*um*i ula i'ar#na'an r$#'*i i*u*un m#nuna'an a%a 'n*um*i ari S=SN&S. =n%u' i%u #nan in3rma*i ari a#l Inu% an 6u%u% imana #nunaan ula un%u' 'n*um*i rumah %ana aalah 51,20, un%u' inu*%ri, rumah ma'an an a*a m#ncaai 4,98 *#r%a *##*ar 1,82 *i*an$a aalah #nunaan lainn$a, ma'a i#rl#h 'n*um*i %%al ula i%ahun 2020 aalah 2.2.541 %n. Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian

vii

2016

viii

OUTLOOK T EBU


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

B)B I PE&D)"ULU)&

11 L)T)+ BEL)K)&* #u a%au sa!!"arum offi!inarum #su$ar!ane% %#rma*u' %anaman #ni* rumu%-rumu%an $an iman3aa%'an air ari a%ann$a un%u' ahan a'u ula an #%*in. anaman ini han$a %umuh i a#rah %ri*, %anah $an iu%uh'an un%u' #r'#man $ai%u alluial, rum*l, la%*l an r#u*l #nan '#%inian 0-00 m l. Di Inn#*ia, inu*%ri ula #rahan a'u %anaman %#u %#lah aa *#a' #ra #naahan B#lana. Inu*%ri ula %#rln inu*%ri $an '##raaann$a %ua i unia. @al ini aa% iiha% ari *#arah inu*%ri ula i hailan $an %#lah #riri *#a' aa '#-1<, i Bra*il *#a' aa '#-15, an i Inn#*ia i#r'ira'an %#lah aa *#a' aa '#-1. Inn#*ia #rnah m#nalami #ra '#a$aan inu*%ri ula aa %ahun 19<0-an #nan umlah ari' ula (+) $an #r#ra*i 179 ari', ru'%ii%a* *#'i%ar 14,80, an r#n#m#n 11 E1<,80. +ru'*i unca' m#ncaai hina < u%a %n an #'*r ula *##*ar 2,40 u%a %n. ##rha*ilan %#r*#u% iu'un l#h '#muahan alam m#m#rl#h lahan $an *uur, %#naa '#ra murah, riri%a* iria*i, an i*ilin alam #n#raan %#'nli (Su*ila #% al., 2005a). +aa #ri# 1989-1999 , inu*%ri ula Inn#*ia mulai m#nhaai #raai ma*alah $an *#riu*, an%ara lain i%unu''an l#h lum# imr ula $an %#ru* m#nin'a% #nan lau 21,2%ahun aa #ri# %#r*#u%, aahal lau imr aa #'a# *##lumn$a (1979E1989) han$a 0,98%ahun. @al ini %#rai 'ar#na 'n*um*i m#nin'a% #nan lau 2,5%ahun aa #ri# 1989E1999, *#m#n%ara ru'*i ula alam n##ri m#nurun #nan lau -2,02%ahun (+a'ahan, 2000). +aa %ahun 1997-2002, ru'*i ula ah'an m#nalami #nurunan #nan lau ,14%ahun (D#wan ula Inn#*ia, 2002).


1

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

+#nurunan ru'*i an '#nai'an #3i*i% $an ihaai Inn#*ia i*#a'an l#h #raai 3a'%r in%#rnal an #'*%#rnal $an *alin %#r'ai%. Di*amin i*#a'an l#h #nurunan #3i*i#n*i i %in'a% u*aha%ani an + (+a'ahan, 2000), #raai 3a'%r '#ia'an #m#rin%ah, 'hu*u*n$a un%u' #ri# %ahun 1982-2000, ua #r#naruh *#cara *ini3i'an %#rhaa '#muuran inu*%ri ula Inn#*ia (Su*ila, #% al. 2005). /alauun '#ia'an #m#rin%ah a'hir-a'hir ini ianan r-#%ani, an$a' ula $an m#liha%n$a *#aai

'#ia'an

ar*ial

(%ia'

'mr#h#n*i3)

an

'uran

#la*

'#%#r'ai%ann$a an%ara *a%u *#'%r #nan *#'%r lain alam '#ran'a #n#manan inu*%ri ula $an #3i*i#n (!arian%, #% al. 2005). +#manunan inu*%ri ula $an #3i*i#n m#m#rlu'an *ua%u rancanan '#ia'an $an m#n$#luruh, m#mun$ai '#%#r'ai%an an '#*#lara*an $an #la* an%ara *a%u '#ia'an #nan $an lain, an %#rin%#ra*i *#hina cu'u #3#'%i3 un%u' m#ncaai %uuan $an *ama (!arian%, #% al. 2005). Dalam #rumu*an '#ia'an, a%a #nu'un iu%uh'an *#aai ahan un%u' m#n#3ini*i'an #rma*alahan $an a'an iawa m#lalui '#ia'an *#r%a *#aai aian ari a#n 'n%rl ai '#ia'an i%u *#niri. Dalam u%l' 'mi%a* %#u ini, i*ai'an '#raaan 'mi%a* %#u i Inn#*ia an unia, *#r%a ha*il anali*i* r$#'*i ru'*i an 'n*um*i %#uula i Inn#*ia aa #ri# 201-2020, $an ihara'an aa% #runa *#aai a%a m#n%ah mauun aian ari #nawa*an %#rhaa '#ia'an $an %#lah aa.

2

usat !ata dan Sistem In"ormasi ertanian

OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

12 TUJU)& !#la'u'an +#n$u*unan Bu'u 6u%l' mi%i #u $an #ri*i '#raaan a%a *#ri#* *#cara na*inal an in%#rna*inal, $an il#n'ai #nan ha*il r$#'*i ru'*i an 'n*um*i na*inal.

1 +U)&* LI&*KUP uan lin'u $an ica'u alam Bu'u 6u%l' mi%i #u aalah: 

#raaan lua* an#n, ru'*i, ru'%ii%a*, 'n*um*i, #'*r, imr, hara, *i%ua*i 'mi%a* %#u i alam an i luar n##ri.



&nali*i* 'mi%i %#u aa *i%ua*i na*inal an in%#rna*inal *#r%a #n$u*unan r$#'*i 'mi%i %#u %ahun 201-2020.


#

2016

$

OUTLOOK T EBU


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

B)B II /ETODOLO*I

21 SU/BE+ D)T) D)& I&,O+/)SI 6u%l' mi%i #u %ahun 201 i*u*un #ra*ar'an a%a an in3rma*i $an i#rl#h ari a%a rim#r $an #r*um#r ari a#rah, in*%an*i %#r'ai% i lin'u #m#n%#rian +#r%anian an in*%an*i i luar #m#n%#rian +#r%anian *##r%i Baan +u*a% S%a%i*%i' (B+S) an &ood and '$ri!ulture Or$ani(ation (>&6). Da%a-a%a $an iuna'an alam u%l' ini

aa% iliha% aa a#l 2.1. a#l 2.1. Sum#r Da%a an In3rma*i $an Diuna'an &o

3aria(el

Periode

1.

"ua* +an#n, +ru'%ii%a* an +ru'*i #u Inn#*ia

1980-2015A)

Di%#n +#r'#unan

- ahun 2015 aalah an'a *#m#n%ara - +ru'*i alam wuu ula halur

2.

S#n%ra "ua* +an#n an +ru'*i #u i Inn#*ia

2009-2015A)


- ahun 2015 aalah an'a *#m#n%ara - +ru'*i alam wuu ula halur

<.

n*um*i ula #u i Inn#*ia

2002-2015

B+S

-

4.

@ara c#ran ula #u i +a*ar Dalam N##ri

1997-2015


-

5.

?lum#, Nilai an N#raca '*r an Imr !la*# an ula Inn#*ia

1980-2015


- # @S : 17011<0000F 1701140000F 1701910000F 1701991100F 1701991900F 1701999000F 170<101000F 170<109000F 170<901000F 170<909000

>&6

- +ru'*i alam wuu %#u - N#ara &S&N : Brun#i Daru**alam, ama, Inn#*ia, "a*, !ala$*ia, !$anmar, >iliina, Sinaura, hailan, ?i#%nam

>&6

- +ru'*i alam wuu %#u - N#ara &S&N : Brun#i Daru**alam, ama, Inn#*ia, "a*, !ala$*ia, !$anmar, >iliina, Sinaura, hailan, ?i#%nam

.

"ua* +an#n, +ru'*i an +ru'%i3i%a* #u &S&N an Dunia

7.

N#ara-n#ara #nan "ua* +an#n an +ru'*i #u #r#*ar &S&N an Dunia

1980-201<

2008-201<

Sum(er Data

Keteran%an

8.

?lum# an Nilai '*r an Imr ula &S&N an Dunia

1980-201<

>&6

- N#ara &S&N : Brun#i Daru**alam, ama, Inn#*ia, "a*, !ala$*ia, !$anmar, >iliina, Sinaura, hailan, ?i#%nam

9.

#%#r*#iaan ula &S&N an Dunia

1980-201<

>&6

#%#r*#iaan G +ru'*i  ('*r-Imr)


5

2016

EBU OUTLOOK T T EBU

22 22 /ETO /ETODE DE )&)L )&)LIS ISIS IS 221 )nalisis Kera%aan &nali* &nali*i* i* '#raaa '#raaan n a%au #r'#m #r'#man anan an 'mi% 'mi%a* a* %#u %#u ila'u ila'u'an 'an #ra*ar'an '#%#r*#iaan a%a *#ri#* $an $an m#nca'u ini'a%r lua* an#n, an#n, ru'% ru'%ii ii%a*, %a*, ru' ru'*i, *i, 'n 'n*um *um*i, *i, #'* #'*r r-im -imr r *#r%a *#r%a hara hara m#* m#*%i' %i' #na #nan n anal anali*i i*i** #*'r #*'ri% i%i3 i3 *## *##rh rhan ana. a. &n &nal ali* i*i* i* '# '#ra raa aan an ila'u'an ai' un%u' a%a *#ri#* na*inal mauun unia.

222 )nalisis Produksi &nali* &nali*i* i* ru'* ru'*ii ila'u ila'u'an 'an #ra*a #ra*ar'a r'an n anali*i anali*i** 3un 3un*i *i ru' ru'*i. *i. +#n#lu*u +#n#lu*uran ran m#l m#l un%u' un%u' anali* anali*i* i* 3un 3un*i *i ru'* ru'*ii %#r*#u %#r*#u%% ila'u ila'u'an 'an #nan #n#'a%an #r#% wa'%u (time series anal)sis) m#lalui m#%# dou*le e+one e+onenti ntial al smoot" smoot"in$ in$). #mulu* #mulu*an an #'* #'*n n#n* #n*ial ial #ran #rana a (dou*le

+#mu +#mulu lu*a *an n #' #'* *n n#n #n*i *ial al aal aalah ah *ua% *ua%u u m# m#% %# # $an $an *#ca *#cara ra %#ru %#ru** m#n#ru* m#m#rai'i #ramalan #nan m#ra%a-ra%a'an a%a ma*a lalu ari *ua%u a%a #r#% wa'%u *#cara #'*n#n*ial. Dalam #n#'a%an #r#% wa'%u, ru'*i %#u i Inn#*ia aa %ahun %#r%#n%u iana m#mili'i '#%#r'ai%an #nan ru'*i %#u aa %ahun *##lumn$a. Dalam #mulu*an #'*n#n*ial #rana %#raa% ua m#%# $an aa% iuna'an, $ai%u: 1. !#%# !#%# "ini "ini#r #r Sa%u Sa%u +aram# +aram#%#r %#r ari ari Brwn BrwnH* H* !#% !# %# # ini ini aa aa a*ar a*arn$ n$a a *#ru *#rua a #n #nan an m# m#% %# # ra%a ra%a-r -ra% a%a a #r #r#r #ra' a' namu namun n un un%u' %u' a%a a%a #n #nan an un un*ur *ur %r#n %r#n  ma'a ma'a a'an a'an %#rai la$ an%ara nilai #mulu*an an a%a *##narn$a. Dalam m#%# m#%# Brwn, Brwn, #r# #r#aan aan nil nilai ai %#r*#u %#r*#u%% i%amah i%amah'an 'an aa aa nila nilaii #mu #mulu lu*a *an n an an i*# i*#*ua *uai' i'an an un un%u %u'' la la %r#n %r#n. . B#n% B#n%u' u' umum m#%# Brwn aalah *#aai #ri'u%:

6

usa u satt !ata !ata dan dan Sis Siste tem m In"o In"orm rmas asii ert ertan ania ian n

EBU OUTLOOK T T EBU

S 't

  p p X t  1  p S ' 't 1

''t

  p p S ' 't  1  p p S '' ''t 1

S



at  S 't  S 't  S ''t bt



 p

1  p

F t t m imana:

2016

  2 S '  S ''  t

t 1

S '  S ''  t

  t t  bt

t

m

S 't G Nilai #mulu*an #'*n#n*ial %unal S ''t G Nilai #mulu*an #'*n#n*ial ana  p G +aram#%#r #mulu*an #'*n#n*ial at , bt G n*%an%a #mulu*an F t m

G @a*il #ramalan un%u' #ri# '##an

2. !# !#% %# # Dua Dua +ar +aram am#%# #%#rr ari ari @l @l%% D#n D#nan an m# m#% %# # ini, ini, nila nilaii %r#n %r#n  %ia %ia'' imu imulu lu*' *'an an #n #nan an #mulu*an #rana *#cara lan*un, %#%ai ila'u'an #nan m#nuna'an aram#%#r #r#a #nan aram#%#r #mulu*an a%a *##narn$a. S#cara ma%#ma%i*, m#%# ini i%uli* #nan %ia #r*am #r*amaan aan.. B#n%u' B#n%u' umu umum m '#%ia '#%ia #r*ama #r*amaan an ini aalah aalah *#aai #ri'u%:



X t  1  S t t 1 T t t 1  +#mulu*an %%al : S t t   X



+#mulu*an %r#n : T t t    S t t  S t t 1  1  T t t 1



+#ramalan

: F t t m

 S t  T t t  m

imana,

S t

X t

T

t

F

G Nilai #mulu*an %unal aa wa'%u '#-% G Da%a *##narn$a aa wa'%u '#-% G Nilai #mulu*an %r#n aa wa'%u '#-%

G Nilai ramalan m G +#ri# ima*a a%in ,  G n*%an%a #nan nilai an%ara 0 an 1 t m




7

2016

EBU OUTLOOK T T EBU

22 )nalisis Konsumsi Sama Sama haln haln$a $a *## *##r% r%ii aa aa anal anali* i*i* i* r ru' u'*i *i,, anal anali*i i*i** 'n 'n*um *um*i *i ila'u'an #nan m#nuna'an #n#'a%an #r#% wa'%u (time series anal)sis) namun alam u%l' ini a'an iuna'an m#%# &I!& ( 'uto, -e$ressive Inte$rated .ovin$ 'vera$e). Dalam #n#'a%an #r#% wa'%u,

ru ru'*i '*i %#u %#u i In Inn# n#*ia *ia aa aa %ahu %ahun n %#r% %#r%#n #n%u %u ian ian a a m# m#mi mili li'i 'i '#%#r '# %#r'a 'ai%a i%an n #nan #nan r ru' u'*i *i %#u %#u aa aa %ahu %ahun n *## *##lu lumn mn$a $a.. @al @al ini ini i'ar i'ar#n #na' a'an an m#l m#l $an $an ia ian nun un #n #nan an & &I! I!&, &, aa aa a*ar a*arn$ n$a a m#nuna'an nilai ama%an aa ma*a lalu an *#'aran un%u' '#muian m#l %#r*#u% iuna'an alam #ramalan a%au r$#'*i. @al $an #rlu i#rha%i'an alam m#la'u'an anali*i* #r#% wa'%u #nan #n#'a%an &I!& aalah *%a*in#r a%au %ia'n$a a%a #r#% wa'%u $an iuna'an. Dalam m#l &I!&, a*#'-a*#' & an !& han$a han$a #r'#n #r'#naan aan #nan #nan #r#% #r#% wa'%u wa'%u $an *%a*in *%a*in#r. #r. S%a*in S%a*in#ri #ri%a* %a* #rar%i %ia' %#raa% #r%umuhan a%au #nurunan aa a%a. D#nan 'a%a lain, 3lu'%ua*i a%a #raa i *#'i%ar *ua%u nilai ra%a-ra%a $an 'n*%a 'n *%an, n, %ia' %ia' %#r %#ran an%u %un n aa aa wa'%u wa'%u,, an an ari arian an** ari ari 3lu' 3lu'%ua %ua*i *i %#r*#u% aa a*arn$a %#%a 'n*%an *#%ia wa'%u. Sua%u #r#% wa'%u $an $an %ia %ia'' *%a* *%a*in in#r #r haru haru** iu iuah ah m# m#n nai ai a%a a%a *%a*i *%a*in n#r #r #n #nan an m#la'u'an

differen!in$

(# (#m# m#aa aan n).

an an

ima ima'* '*u u

#n #nan an

differen!in$ differen!in$ aalah m#nhi%un #ruahan a%au *#li*ih nilai *#ra*i.

&ail &aila a ha*il ha*il differen!in$ ini #lum *%a*in#r, ma'a #rlu ila'u'an differen!in$ '#mali hina m#nai *%a*in#r.

S#ca S#cara ra um umum um m#l m#l &I!& &I!& ia iai i '# '#al alam am < '#l '#lm m ', ', $ai%u $ai%u:: avera$e (!&) an m#l camuran m#l autore$ressive (&), movin$ avera$e autore$ressive e inte$rated inte$rated movin$ avera$e avera$e) $an &I!& (autore$ressiv $an m#mun m#mun$ai $ai

'ara'%# 'ara'%#ri* ri*%i' %i' ari ari ua m#l m#l #r%ama #r%ama.. !#l !#l &I!& &I!& ia*a ia*a i%uli* i%uli*'an 'an +/ d/  ) ima #nan n%a*i &I!& ( +/ imana na n n%a* %a*ii  aal aalah ah r r m# m#ll autore$ressive (&), n%a*i  aalah umlah differen!in$ $an ila'u'an

an n%a*i  aalah r m#l movin$ area (!&).

%

usa u satt !ata !ata dan dan Sis Siste tem m In"o In"orm rmas asii ert ertan ania ian n

OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

1. !#l autore$ressive (&) B#n%u' umum m#l autore$ressive #nan r  (&( +)) a%au m#l &I!& ( +,0,0) in$a%a'an *#aai #ri'u%:

X t

  '  1 X t 1   2 X t  2 

imana:

  p X t  p  et

 ' G *ua%u 'n*%an%a

 p

G aram#%#r autore$ressive '#- +

e

G nilai '#*alahan aa *aa% t

t

2. !#l movin$ avera$e (!&) B#n%u' umum m#l min a#ra# r  (!&( )) a%au &I!& (0,0, ) in$a%a'an *#aai #ri'u%:

X t imana:

  ' et   1et 1   2 et  2 

 q et k

 ' G *ua%u 'n*%an%a  1 *amai  q aalah aram#%#r movin$ avera$e et k G nilai '#*alahan aa *aa% t,

<. !#l camuran (&I!&) a. +r*#* &!& !#l umum un%u' camuran r*#* &(1) murni an !&(1) murni, a%au &I!& (1,0,1) in$a%a'an *#aai #ri'u%:

X t

  '  1 X t 1  et  1et 1

a%au

1   B  X 1

AR(1)

t

  ' 1 1 B  et MA(1)


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

9

. +r*#* &I!& &aila #r#% wa'%u $an iuna'an %ia' *%a*in#r an ila'u'an differen!in$, ma'a m#l umum &I!& ( +,d , ) %#r#nuhi. +#r*amaan un%u' 'a*u* *##rhana &I!& (1,1,1) aalah *#aai #ri'u%:

1  B 1   1 B  X t   ' 1 1 B  et #m#aan #r%ama

&(1)

!&(1)

Dalam hal %#raa% 3a'%r mu*iman aa a%a, ma'a 3ac%r mu*iman %#r*#u% i#3ini*i'an *#aai *ua%u la $an #rulan-ulan alam *#lan wa'%u $an %#%a. =n%u' a%a $an *%a*in#r, 3ac%r mu*iman aa% i%#n%u'an #nan m#ni#n%i*3i'a*i '#3i*i#n au%'r#la*i aa ua a%au %ia time,la$ $an #r#a n$a%a ari nl. &u%'r#la*i $an *#cara *ini3i'an #r#a ari nl m#n$a%a'an aan$a *ua%u la alam a%a. D#nan #mi'ian, au%'r#la*i $an %ini aa a%a m#rua'an *ua%u %ana aan$a 3ac%r mu*iman. N%a*i umum un%u' &I!& #nan 3ac%r mu*iman aalah *#aai #ri'u%:





ARIMA p , d , q P , D , Q



S

imana P/ D an  aalah aian mu*iman an S aalah umlah #ri#.

225 Kela$akan /odel !#l #r#% wa'%u $an i#rl#h ai' m#lalui #n#'a%an anali*i* r#r#*i a%auun &I!& aa% iuna'an aaila nilai #rrr ari m#l #r*i3a% ranm a%au %ia' m#mili'i la %#r%#n%u. =n%u' m#nui aa'ah nilai #rrr $an i#rl#h m#ni'u%i la %#r%#n%u a%au %ia' ma'a ila'u'an #nuian #nan m#nuna'an *alah *a%u ui #ri'u%:

10


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

1. =i J Bx an +i#rc# S%a%i*%i' ui un%u' #nuian ini aalah: m

Q  n '

r

2 k

k 1

2. =i "un-Bx S%a%i*%i' ui un%u' #nuian ini aalah:



Q  n ' n ' 2

r 2

m

k

k 1

n ' k 

Nilai '#ua *%a%i*%i' ui ia%a* m#n$#ar m#ni'u%i i*%riu*i 3"i Suare



(  2 ) #nan #raa% #a* k  p

 q  P Q imana:

nK

G n-(SD)



G r differen!in$ nn mu*iman

DG r differen!in$ mu*iman SG umlah #ri# #r mu*im mG la wa'%u ma'*imum

r k

G au%'r#la*i un%u' la wa'%u '#- 1, 2, <, 4, L, 

ri%#ria #nuian aalah -

;i'a Q   2 ,db , ma'a nilai #rrr #r*i3a% ranm (m#l aa% i%#rima)

- ;i'a Q   2

, ma'a nilai #rrr %ia' #r*i3a% ranm (m#l

 ,db

%ia' aa% i%#rima)

Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian 11

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

S#lain #nuian '##rar%ian m#l, un%u' m#n#n%u'an m#l %#rai' $an aa% iuna'an aalah #nan m#manin'an standard error estimate m#lalui #r*amaan *#aai #ri'u%:





SSE

S



nn

p

1



  t

2

Y

  t 1









n







Y

t



ˆ

n  n p



2



1

2



 

imana:

Y t

G nilai *#(#narn$a aa wa'%u '#-%

ˆ Y t

G nilai uaan aa wa'%u '#-%

!#l %#rai' aalah m#l $an m#mili'i standard error estimate (S) $an alin '#cil. S%a%i*%i' lain $an ia*a iuna'an un%u' m#n#n%u'an m#l %#rai' aalah nilai ra%a-ra%a r#*#n%a*# #rrr #ramalan a%au m#an a#ra# #rc#n%a# #rrr (!&+). +#r*amaan ma%#ma%i* un%u' *%a%i*%i' ini aalah:

ˆ

T

MAPE 

 t 1

Y t

Y

t

Y t

100%

T

imana: 

12

G an$a'n$a #ri# #ramalanuaan


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

B)B III KE+)*))& TEBU &)SIO&)L

1 PE+KE/B)&*)& LU)S P)&E&7 P+ODUKSI D)& P+ODUKTI3IT)S TEBU DI I&DO&ESI) 11 Perkem(an%an Luas Panen Te(u di Indonesia S#cara

umum,

lua*

an#n

%#u i Inn#*ia m#nalami

#nin'a%an *#a' %ahun 1980 (amar <.1). +aa %ahun 1980, lua* an#n %#u i Inn#*ia han$a *#lua* <1.0< ha. "ua* ini '#muian m#nin'a% *##*ar 50,9 m#nai 477.12< ha aa %ahun 201< an i#r'ira'an a'an '#mali m#nin'a% m#nai *##*ar 472.9< ha i %ahun 201. +#nin'a%an lua* an#n ini l#ih i*#a'an l#h aan$a #nin'a%an aa lua* an#n %#u i +#r'#unan a'$a%. @al ini i'ar#na'an *#aian #*ar #r'#unan %#u i Inn#*ia iu*aha'an l#h #%ani %#u ra'$a%. S#a' %ahun 1980, ra%a-ra%a 'n%riu*i #r'#unan %#u ra'$a% m#ncaai 59,9, %#r%ini ianin'an 'n%riu*i ari #r'#unan %#u mili' #ru*ahaan (+BN a%au +BS). Da%a #r'#manan lua* an#n %#u aa% iliha% aa "amiran 1.

amar <.1. +#r'#manan "ua* +an#n #u !#nuru% S%a%u* +#nu*ahaan i Inn#*ia, 1980C201

Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian 1#

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

12 Perkem(an%an Produksi Te(u di Indonesia +ru'*i %#u i Inn#*ia alam wuu ula halur m#nalami #nurunan *ini3i'an aa *aa% Inn#*ia %#r'#na 'ri*i* #'nmi i %ahun 1998. S##r%i %#rliha% aa amar <.2, aa %ahun 1980 hina 1997, ru'*i %#u c#n#run m#nin'a% #nan #r%umuhan ra%ara%a <,8 #r %ahun. Namun aa %ahun 1998, ru'*i %#u #r'uran <2,10 i'a ianin'an %ahun 1997. Di %ahun 1998, ru'*i %#u Inn#*ia han$a 1,48 u%a %n *#m#n%ara i%ahun 1997 m#ncaai 2,19 u%a %n. @ina %ahun 200<, ru'*i %#u Inn#*ia #lum mamu m#n#mu* an'a 2 u%a %n. +ru'*i %#u '#muian m#nalami '#c#n#runan

#nin'a%an

'#mali

aa

#ri#

2004

hina

*#'aran. +aa %ahun 201, #ra*ar'an an'a #*%ima*i i%#n #r'#unan, ru'*i ula i Inn#*ia %#lah m#ncaai 2,71 u%a %n a%au m#nin'a% 11 ianin'an %ahun 1998. a%a-ra%a #r%umuhan ru'*i ula Inn#*ia aa #ri# 1998-201 m#ncaai 1,94 #r%ahun. S#cara l#n'a, #r'#manan ru'*i %#u m#nuru% *%a%u* #nu*ahaan aa% iliha% aa "amiran 2.

amar <.2. +#r'#manan +ru'*i #u !#nuru% S%a%u* +#nu*ahaan i Inn#*ia,1980-201

1$


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

1 Perkem(an%an Produktiitas Te(u di Indonesia ;i'a i#rha%i'an '#raaan ru'%ii%a* ula i Inn#*ia *##r%i %#r*ai aa amar <.<, %#rliha% ahwa aa %ahun 1998 hina 201, ru'%ii%a* ula $an #ra*al ari +BS %#rliha% l#ih ai' i'a ianin'an ru'%ii%a* ula $an #ra*al ari + an +BN. a%a-ra%a ru'%ii%a* ula $an #ra*al ari +BS aa #ri# 1998-201 m#ncaai 2,71 %nha. S#m#n%ara un%u' ula $an #ra*al ari + an +BN han$a m#mili'i ra%a-ra%a ru'%ii%a* 2,52 %nha an 0,09 %nha. S#cara umum, ra%a-ra%a ru'%ii%a* ula i Inn#*ia aa #ri# %ahun 1998-201 aalah 0,79 %nha. Da%a #r'#manan ru'%ii%a* %#u aa% iliha% aa "amiran <.

amar <.<. +#r'#manan +ru'%ii%a* #u !#nuru% S%a%u* +#nu*ahaan i Inn#*ia, 1980C201


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

2 SE&T+) LU)S P)&E& D)& P+ODUKSI TEBU DI I&DO&ESI) 21 Sentra Luas Panen Te(u di Indonesia B#ra*ar'an a%a ra%a-ra%a lua* an#n *#lama %ahun 2012-201, *#lua* 45,0 lua* an#n %#u Inn#*ia #raa i +rin*i ;awa imur (amar <.4). +aa #ri# %#r*#u%, *#cara ra%a-ra%a lua* an#n %#u ai' +, +BN mauun +BS, i +rin*i ;awa imur m#ncaai 209.< ha. "ua*an ini auh #r#a #nan rin*i lainn$a alam a3%ar *#n%ra an#n %#u ra'$a% i Inn#*ia. +aa #ri# $an *ama, +rin*i "amun #nan 'n%riu*i 25,<0 ari lua* an#n %#u i Inn#*ia *#cara ra%a-ra%a han$a mamu m#man#n 117.70< ha %#u *#%ia %ahunn$a. &aun 7 rin*i #nha*il %#u lainn$a (+rin*i ;awa #nah, ;awa Bara%, Suma%#ra S#la%an, Sulaw#*i S#la%an, Suma%#ra =%ara, rn%al, an DI $a'ar%a), aa #ri# $an *ama, ra%ara%a han$a mamu m#man#n 1<7.90 ha %#u. Da%a rin*i *#n%ra lua* an#n %#u %ahun 2012-201 aa% iliha% aa "amiran 4.

amar <.4 +rin*i S#n%ra "ua* +an#n #u (+, +BN an +BS) i Inn#*ia, a%a-ra%a 2012-201

16


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

22 Sentra Produksi Te(u di Indonesia +rin*i *#n%ra ru'*i %#u i Inn#*ia aa %ahun 2012-201 (amar <.5 an "amiran 5) aalah *ama #nan *#n%ra lua* an#n %#u *##r%i $an %#lah iaha* *##lumn$a. @al ini m#nunu''an ahwa uia$a an #nlahan %#u i Inn#*ia 'hu*u*n$a %#u +, #lum m#nuna'an %#'nli $an mamu m#n%imal'an inu% ru'*i. D#nan 'ni*i ini, ma'a +rin*i ;awa imur #nan lua* an#n %#u %#r#*ar *#lama #ri# %#r*#u% aalah m#rua'an ru*#n %#u %#r#*ar i Inn#*ia.

amar <.5 +rin*i S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i Inn#*ia, a%a-ra%a 2012-201 +ru'*i ula i +rin*i ;awa imur *#lama %ahun 2012-201 *#cara ra%a-ra%a aalah 1,28 u%a %n #r %ahun. +ru'*i ini #r'n%riu*i 49,14 ru'*i %#u Inn#*ia #r%ahun. =n%u' %ahun 2014, ula halur ha*il ru'*i %#u ari rin*i ini m#ncaai 1.20.<2 %n, auh l#ih %ini i'a ianin'an rin*i #nha*il %#u lainn$a. +rin*i "amun, *#aai rin*i #nha*il %#u %#r#*ar '#ua n##ri ini, aa %ahun $an *ama han$a mamu m#mru'*i ula *##*ar 78.948 %n. &aun '#%uuh rin*i Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian 17

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

#nha*il %#u lainn$a han$a mamu m#mru'*i ula *##*ar 549.59< %n aa %ahun 201<.

2 Sentra Produksi Te(u di Proinsi Ja8a Timur S#aaimana %#lah i*amai'an, *#n%ra ru'*i %#u i Inn#*ia aalah +rin*i ;awa imur. +aa %ahun 201< ru'*i ula ari rin*i ini m#ncaai 1.20.<2 %n. +ru'*i ini %#r*#ar hamir i *#luruh 'aua%#n'%a i +rin*i ;awa imur, namun lima '#ua%#n #nan ru'*i %#u %#r#*ar aalah a. !alan, #iri, "umaan, ;man, an !'#r% #nan 'n%riu*i '#lima 'aua%#n ini %#rhaa ru'*i ula +rin*i ;awa imur m#ncaai 57,< (amar <.). aua%#n !alan aa %ahun 2014 %#rca%a% m#mru'*i 27<.540 %n ula halur a%au 21,70 ru'*i %#u +rin*i ;awa imur. aua%#n #nha*il ula halur %#r#*ar *#lanu%n$a aalah aua%#n #iri #nan ru'*i 215.805 %n (17,12 ari ru'*i %#u +rin*i ;awa imur), aua%#n "umaan #nan ru'*i 121.00 %n (9,5), aua%#n ;man *##*ar 57.749 %n (4,58), an aua%#n !'#r% #nan ru'*i m#ncaai 54.<42 %n (4,<1). Da%a ru'*i %#u i 5 'aua%#n'%a *#n%ra +rin*i ;awa mur %ahun 2014 aa% iliha% aa "amiran .

amar <. aua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i ;awa imur, ahun 2014

1%


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

25 Sentra Produksi Te(u di Proinsi Lam'un% Di +rin*i *#n%ra ru'*i %#u #ri'u%n$a $ai%u "amun, aa %ahun 2014, ru'*i %#u han$a iha*il'an ari 4 'aua%#n $ai%u aua%#n "amun #nah, ulan Bawan, "amun =%ara, /a$ anan, an ulan Bawan Bara% (amar <.7). aua%#n "amun #nah aalah 'aua%#n #nan ru'*i %#u %#r#*ar #nan ru'*i m#ncaai <40.182 %n a%au 44,24 ru'*i %#u i +rin*i "amun. aua%#n #nha*il %#u lainn$a aalah aua%#n ulan Bawan #nan ru'*i 254.92 %n ula halur an #r'n%riu*i hina <<,1 %#rhaa ru'*i %#u +rin*i "amun. &aun aua%#n "amun =%ara, /a$ anan an aua%#n ulan Bawan Bara% ma*in-ma*in han$a mamu m#mru'*i 90.29 %n, 82.580 %n an 595 %n %#u i %ahun 2014. Da%a ru'*i %#u i +rin*i "amun aa %ahun 2014 i*ai'an aa "amiran 7.

amar <.7 aua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i "amun, ahun 2014


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

2 Sentra Produksi Te(u di Proinsi Ja8a Ten%a! =n%u' +rin*i ;awa #nah, aa %ahun 2014, *#aian #*ar %#u $an iru'*i i rin*i ini aalah #ra*al ari aua%#n +a%i an aua%#n Sra#n (amar.<.8). +ru'*i %#u i aua%#n +a%i aa %ahun 2014 m#ncaai 1.718 %n a%au 2<,55 ru'*i %#u +rin*i ;awa #nah. &aun i aua%#n Sra#n, %#u $an iha*il'an i 'aua%#n ini aa %ahun 2014 m#ncaai <.59< %n an #r'n%riu*i *##*ar 1<,9 %#rhaa ru'*i %#u i +rin*i ;awa #nah. S#lain '#ua 'aua%#n %#r*#u%, #nha*il %#u %#r#*ar lainn$a i +rin*i ;awa #nah aalah aua%#n #man, #al an Blra #nan ru'*i %#u i ma*in-ma*in 'aua%#n %#r*#u% aalah 25.429 %n, 19.1< %n an 14.7<2 %n. #%ia 'aua%#n ini, #r*ama #nan aua%#n +a%i an Sra#n, #r'n%riu*i 0,14 ula %#u $an iha*il'an i +rin*i ;awa #nah. Da%a ru'*i %#u i +rin*i ;awa #nah aa %ahun 2014 i*ai'an aa "amiran 8.

amar <.8 aua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i ;awa #nah, ahun 2014

20


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

2 Sentra Produksi Te(u di Proinsi Ja8a Barat +ru'*i %#u #nan wuu ru'*i ula halur i +rin*i ;awa Bara% aa %ahun 2014 *#aian #*ar #ra*al ari aua%#n Mir#n (amar <.11). n%riu*i ari 'aua%#n ini aa %%al ru'*i ula i +rin*i ;awa Bara% m#ncaai <8,2 a%au *#'i%ar 29.914 %n ("amiran 9). S#n%ra ru'*i lainn$a i +rin*i ;awa Bara% aalah aua%#n Suan. Dari a. Suan, *#'i%ar 20,4 ru'*i ula +rin*i ;awa Bara% #ra*al. +aa %ahun 2014 ru'*i ula ari 'aua%#n ini m#ncaai 1.1< %n. ia'

auh #r#a #nan aua%#n

!aal#n'a, aa %ahun 2014, aua%#n !aal#n'a m#mru'*i 1<.711 %n %#u a%au 17,5< ru'*i %#u i +rin*i ;awa Bara%. aua%#n #nha*il %#u lainn$a i +rin*i ;awa Bara% aalah a. Inrama$u, a. uninan an a. Sum#an #nan ru'*i %#u i %ahun 2014 ma*in-ma*in m#ncaai 1<.472 %n, <.775 %n an 1.188 %n. S#cara l#n'a a%a 'aua%#n *#n%ra ru'*i %#u i +rin*i ;awa Bara% aa% iliha% aa "amiran 9.

amar <.9 aua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i ;awa Bara%, ahun 2014


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

26 Sentra Produksi Te(u di Proinsi Sumatera Selatan S#aai #nha*il %#u %#r#*ar '#lima i Inn#*ia, +rin*i Suma%#ra S#la%an han$a m#mili'i ua 'aua%#n *#aai *#n%ra ru'*i %#u i %ahun 2014, $ai%u a. 6an Ilir an a. 6= imur (amar <.10). B#ra*ar'an a%a &n'a #%a +#r'#unan %ahun 2014, ru'*i %#u i aua%#n 6an Ilir m#ncaai 5.802 %n a%au #r'n%riu*i 5,55 %#rhaa %%al ru'*i %#u i +rin*i Suma%#ra S#la%an. =n%u' ru'*i %#u ari aua%#n 6= imur, aa %ahun 2014, ru'*i %#u i 'aua%#n ini m#ncaai <4.582 %n. S#cara l#n'a a%a ru'*i %#u i aua%#n 6an Ilir an aua%#n 6= imur i %ahun 2014 aa% iliha% aa "amiran 10.

amar <.10 aua%#n S#n%ra +ru'*i #u (+, +BN an +BS) i Suma%#ra S#la%an, ahun 2014

22


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

 PE+KE/B)&*)& ")+*) *UL) DI I&DO&ESI) a%a-ra%a hara ulanan ula i ##raa a*ar alam n##ri i Inn#*ia #ri# 1997-2014 i*ai'an aa amar <.11. #rliha% aa ra3i' %#r*#u%, hara ula i a*ar alam n##ri c#n#run m#nin'a% aa *#%ia %ahunn$a #nan ra%a-ra%a #nin'a%an *##*ar 14,15 *#%ia %ahun. +aa #ri# %#r*#u%, '#nai'an %#r#*ar hara #c#ran ula i Inn#*ia %#rai aa %ahun 1998 #nan '#nai'an m#ncaai 79,4< ianin'an %ahun *##lumn$a. a%a-ra%a hara ulanan ula i %ahun 1998 %#rca%a% m#ncaai . 2.7< #r ' *#an'an i%ahun *##lumn$a hara ula han$a . 1.525 #r '. Di %ahun 2014, hara ula %#rca%a% m#ncaai . 10.859 #r '. @ara ini aalah hara #c#ran ula %#r%ini i Inn#*ia *#a' %ahun 1997. Da%a l#n'a #r'#manan hara #c#ran ula i a*ar alam n##ri Inn#*ia aa% iliha% aa "amiran 11.

amar <.11. +#r'#manan a%a-ra%a @ara ula i +a*ar Dalam N##ri, 1997C 201<


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

5 PE+KE/B)&*)& KO&SU/SI *UL) DI I&DO&ESI) B#ra*ar'an ha*il Sur#i S*ial 'nmi Na*inal (S=SN&S) l#h B+S, 'n*um*i ula un%u' 'n*um*i rumah %ana m#mili'i '#c#n#runan m#nurun (amar <.20) #nan ra%a-ra%a #nurunan 2,15 #r %ahun. +aa %ahun 2002, 'n*um*i ula #r 'ai%a #r %ahun *##*ar 9,20< ' an #r'uran *##*ar 2,0 a%au m#nai ,805 ' aa %ahun 2015. S#lama #ri# %#r*#u%, %#rai #nurunan 'n*um*i ula %#r%ini %#rai i %ahun 2012. +aa %ahun 2012 'n*um*i ula Inn#*ia %#rca%a% ,47 ''ai%a%ahun a%au m#nurun 12,29 ari %ahun *##lumn$a, imana aa %ahun 2011 'n*um*i ula Inn#*ia

m#ncaai 7,<8<

''ai%a%ahun. Namun

#mi'ian *#%#lah

#nurunan 'n*um*i ula i %ahun 2012, 'n*um*i ula i%ahun 2015 '#mali m#nin'a% #nan #r%umuhan m#ncaai ,17 a%au m#nin'a% m#nai ,805 ''ai%a%ahun. Da%a #r'#manan 'n*um*i ula i Inn#*ia aa% iliha% aa "amiran 12.

amar <.12. +#r'#manan n*um*i ula +#r ai%a +#r ahun, 2002C2015

2$


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

 PE+KE/B)&*)& EKSPO+ D)& I/PO+ *UL) I&DO&ESI) 1 Perkem(an%an 3olume Eks'or-Im'or /olase Indonesia S#a' %ahun 1980 hina 'ini, Inn#*ia i'#nal *#aai n#ara imr%ir ula i unia. Namun #mi'ian, #nan ru'*i ula $an cu'u #*ar an #lum %umuhn$a inu*%ri #nlahan mla*# ma'a Inn#*ia i'#nal *#aai *alah *a%u #'*r%ir mla*# i unia. S#a' %ahun 1980, Inn#*ia l#ih an$a' m#la'u'an #'*r mla*# #nan ra%a-ra%a #'*r mla*# m#ncaai 408.2 %n aa *#%ia %ahunn$a. +#r'#manan lum# #'*r an imr ula Inn#*ia aa #ri# %ahun 1980C2015 alam #n%u' mla*# i*ai'an aa amar <.1< #nan a%a #'*r an imr mla*# Inn#*ia i*ai'an aa "amiran 1<. +aa amar <.1<, '*r mla*#* %#r%ini ari Inn#*ia %#rai aa %ahun 2008 #nan lum# #'*r *##*ar 0,95 u%a %n mla*#*. &aun #r'#manan #'*r mla*#* *#a' %ahun 1980 hina 2015 m#mili'i ra%a-ra%a #r%umuhan 1,08 #r%ahun. amar <.1< ua m#nunu''an ahwa Inn#*ia %#%a m#la'u'an imr mla*# %#%ai lum# #'*r mla*# Inn#*ia auh l#ih %ini ari lum# imrn$a.

amar <.1<. +#r'#manan ?lum# '*r-Imr !la*# Inn#*ia, 1980C2015


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

2 Perkem(an%an 3olume Im'or *ula Indonesia amar <.14 m#n$ai'an '#raaan #r'#manan lum# imr ula Inn#*ia %ahun 1980-2015. Dari amar <.14 %#rliha% ahwa imr ula Inn#*ia c#n#run m#nin'a% #r%ahunn$a. +aa #ri# 19802015, imr ula Inn#*ia m#nin'a% ra%a-ra%a 1<,09 #r%ahun a%au *#%ara #nan <.889 %n #r %ahun. Imr ula Inn#*ia aa %ahun 1981 *##*ar 720,95 riu %n an m#nin'a% hina *##*ar 2.<7.020 %n aa %ahun 2015. ?lum# imr aa %ahun 201< %#rca%a% *#aai lum# imr %#r%ini Inn#*ia *#a' %ahun 1980. ahun 2008, #m#rin%ah m#m#rla'u'an '#ia'an #ma%a*an imr ula. @al ini mamu m#n#'an lum# imr ula namun 'ar#na '#%#ra%a*an *%' alam n##ri, #m#rin%ah %ia' aa% m#nh#n%i'an *#cara %%al imr ula m#*'iun imr ula *#rin'ali m#n#'an hara ula alam n##ri. #ia'an

#n#nalian

imr

ula

'#muian

#ralih

m#nai

#nua%an inu*%r$ ula alam n##ri. Da%a lum# an nilai imr ula Inn#*ia i*ai'an aa "amiran 14.

amar <.14. +#r'#manan ?lum# Imr ula Inn#*ia, 1980C2015

26


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

 &era9a Perda%an%an /olase Indonesia amar <.15 m#n$ai'an #r'#manan nilai #'*r an imr #raanan mla*# Inn#*ia i unia. S#lama #ri# 1980 hina 2015, Inn#*ia m#nalami *urlu* #raanan mla*# '#cuali aa %ahun 199 an *aa% %#rai 'ri*i* mn#%#r i %ahun 1998 hina %ahun 200<. Di%ahun 2015 Inn#*ia '#mali m#nalami *urlu* #raanan mla*#. +#r'#manan #'*r, imr an n#raca #raanan mla*# Inn#*ia %ahun 1980-2015 *#cara rinci i*ai'an aa "amiran 1<.

amar <.15. +#r'#manan Nilai '*r an Nilai Imr +#raanan !la*# Inn#*ia, 1980-2015


2016

2%

OUTLOOK T EBU


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

B)B I3 KE+)*))& TEBU )SE)& D)& DU&I)

51 PE+KE/B)&*)& LU)S P)&E&7 P+ODUKSI D)& P+ODUKTI3IT)S TEBU )SE)& D)& DU&I) 511 Perkem(an%an Luas Panen Te(u di &e%ara-ne%ara )SE)& Dalam u%l' ini, a%a %#u un%u' '#raaan unia an &S&N m#nuna'an

a%a

$an

%#r*#ia

aa

w#*i%#

>&6

(www.3a*%a%.r.i). B#ra*ar'an a%a ini, *#cara umum lua* an#n ("arvested area) %#u i an%ara n#ara-n#ara an%a &S&N *#lama #ri# %ahun 1980C201< c#n#run m#nin'a% (amar 4.1) #nan ra%a-ra%a #nin'a%an *##*ar 2,9 #r %ahun. +aa %ahun 1980 %%al lua* an#n %#u i n#ara-n#ara an%a &S&N han$a *##*ar 1.211.49< ha an m#nin'a% m#nai 2.750.078 ha i%ahun 201< a%au m#nin'a% 127,00 ianin'an #nan %ahun 1980. Da%a lua* %anaman m#nha*il'an %#u i an%ara n#ara-n#ara &S&N aa% iliha% aa "amiran 15.

amar 4.1. +#r'#manan "ua* +an#n #u i awa*an &S&N, 1980C201<


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

512 Sentra Luas Panen Te(u di &e%ara-ne%ara )SE)& ;i'a iliha% ari a%a ra%a-ra%a lua* an#n %#u %ahun 2009-201< ian%ara n#ara-n#ara an%a &S&N, hailan %#rca%a% *#aai n#ara #nan lua* an#n %#u %#r#*ar i 'awa*an &S&N #nan ra%ara%a lua* *##*ar 1.210.218 ha an #r'n%riu*i *##*ar 47,12 ari %%al lua* an#n %#u i &S&N (amar 4.2). Inn#*ia *#niri aalah n#ara #nan lua* an#n %#u %#r#*ar '#ua i an%ara n#ara-n#ara an%a &S&N #nan 'n%riu*i m#ncaai 17,51 ari %%al lua* an#n %#u i 'awa*an ini. a%a-ra%a lua* an#n %#u Inn#*ia aa #ri# 2009 hina 201< %#rca%a% m#ncaai 449.8<4 ha. N#ara-n#ara #nan lua*an an#n %#u unia %#r#*ar *#lanu%n$a aalah >iliina, ?i#%nam an !$anmar #nan 'n%riu*i ma*in-ma*in n#ara aalah 1,20, 11,<2 an ,0. S#cara rinci, a%a lua* an#n n#ara-n#ara an%a &S&N aa %ahun 2009 hina 201<, aa% iliha% aa "amiran 1.

amar 4.2 S#n%ra "ua* +an#n #u N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N, a%a-ra%a 2009-201<

#0


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

51 Perkem(an%an Produksi Te(u di &e%ara-ne%ara )SE)& +ru'*i %#u (wuu ru'*i ula halur) i 'awa*an &S&N *#anan %ahun 1980 hina 201<, %#rliha% c#n#run m#nin'a% #nan la $an hamir *ama #nan #r'#manan lua* an#n (amar 4.<). D#nan #mi'ian, aa #ri# ini, #nin'a%an ru'*i %#u i 'awa*an &S&N %ia' i%#muh m#lalui #nin'a%an %#'nli uia$a a%auun #nin'a%an 'uali%a* #nih $an iuna'an. S#lama #ri# %ahun 1980 hina 201<, %#rai #nin'a%an ru'*i %#u i 'awa*an &S&N #nan ra%a-ra%a #nin'a%an *##*ar 4,28 #r %ahun. ;i'a aa %ahun 1980 ru'*i %#u i n#ara-n#ara &S&N han$a *##*ar 5.080.2<4 %n, ma'a aa a'hir %ahun 201< ru'*i %#u i &S&N %#rca%a% *##*ar 1.<78.700 %n. Da%a ru'*i %#u i 'awa*an &S&N aa %ahun 1980-201< aa% iliha% aa "amiran 15.

amar 4.< +#r'#manan +ru'*i #u i awa*an &S&N, 1980C201<

Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian #1

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

515 Sentra Produksi Te(u di &e%ara-ne%ara )SE)& =n%u' n#ara-n#ara ru*#n %#u i 'awa*an &S&N, aa %ahun 2009 hina 201<, %#raa% #r#aan *i*i n#ara *#n%ra ru'*i %#u i'a ianin'an #nan n#ara-n#ara *#n%ra lua* an#n. Dalam a3%ar ini, Inn#*ia u'anlah n#ara #nha*il %#u %#r#*ar '#ua i &S&N m#*'iun %#rca%a% *##lumn$a *#aai *#n%ra lua* an#n %#r#*ar '#ua i 'awa*an ini. @al $an *ama %#rai aa n#ara ama, imana lua* an#n %#u ama $an m#rua'an %#r#*ar '#- i &S&N %ia' m#nai'an m#r#'a *#aai #nha*il %#u %#ran$a' '#- i 'awa*an ini. +*i*i Inn#*ia alam a3%ar n#ara #nha*il %#u %#r#*ar i &S&N %#ran%i'an l#h >iliina, *#m#n%ara ama %#ran%i'an l#h "a*. @al ini m#nunu''an ahwa i Inn#*ia an ama, uia$a a%auun #nlahan %#u #lumlah #3i*i#n. D#nan #mi'ian, i#rlu'an ua$a-ua$a lain *##r%i #nunaan #nih $an #r'uali%a* un%u' m#nin'a%'an ru'%ii%a* %#u i '#ua n#ara ini. Dalam a3%ar n#ara-n#ara #nha*il %#u i &S&N, hailan m#nmina*i ru'*i %#u i 'awa*an ini #nan ra%a-ra%a ru'*i aa %ahun 2009-201< *##*ar 8.014.1<2 %n a%au #r'n%riu*i *##*ar 49,51 ari %%al ru'*i %#u i &S&N (amar 4.4 an "amiran 17). N#ara *#lanu%n$a aalah >iliina #nan ru'*i %#u *##*ar <0.874.800 %n a%au 17,77 ari %%al ru'*i %#u i &S&N aa

%ahun

2009-201<. S#m#n%ara

Inn#*ia

#nan

'n%riu*i

m#ncaai 1,05 ari %%al ru'*i %#u i 'awa*an &S&N han$a mamu m#mru'*i %#u *#cara ra%a-ra%a 27.880.000 %n aa #ri# $an *ama.

#2


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

amar 4.4 S#n%ra +ru'*i #u N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N, a%a-ra%a 2009-201<

51 Perkem(an%an Produktiitas Te(u di &e%ara-ne%ara )SE)& +#r'#manan ru'%ii%a* %#u &S&N aa #ri# %ahun 1980-201<, m#mili'i la $an #r3lu'%ua*i *#%ia %ahunn$a (amar 4.5). +aa #ri# %#r*#u%, lau #r%umuhan ru'%ii%a* %#u han$a *##*ar 1,41 #r %ahun ("amiran 15) #nan ru'%ii%a* %#r%ini icaai aa %ahun 2012 $ai%u *##*ar ,14 %nha.

amar 4.5. +#r'#manan +ru'%ii%a* #u i awa*an &S&N, 1980-201< Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian ##

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

51 +ata-rata Produktiitas Te(u di &e%ara-ne%ara )SE)& S#aai *#n%ra lua* an#n %#u '#%ia i &S&N namun %#rca%a% *#aai ru*#n %#ran$a' '#ua i 'awa*an %#r*#u%, >iliina aalah n#ara #nan ra%a-ra%a ru'%ii%a* %#u %#r%ini i &S&N aa #ri# 2009-201< (amar 4.). a%a-ra%a ru'%ii%a* %#u >iliina aa #ri# %#r*#u% aalah 74,9< %nha, l#ih #*ar ianin'an n#ara ru*#n %#u %#r#*ar i &S&N $ai%u hailan $an han$a m#mili'i

ra%a-ra%a

ru'%ii%a*

%#u

74,14

%nha.

a%a-ra%a

ru'%ii%a* %#u Inn#*ia *#niri aa #ri# $an *ama han$a 9,8 %nha a%au %#r%ini '#%ia i &S&N. S#cara l#n'a a%a ru'%ii%a* %#u i n#ara-n#ara &S&N aa #ri# %ahun 2009201< i*ai'an aa "amiran 18.

amar 4.. +ru'%ii%a* #u N#ara-n#ara &S&N, a%a-ra%a 2009-201<

#$


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

516 Perkem(an%an Luas Panen Te(u Dunia +aa #ri# %ahun 1980-201<, %#u c#n#run m#nalami #nin'a%an lua*an i unia. @al ini %#rliha% aa amar 4.7 an "amiran 19 imana ra%a-ra%a #r%umuhan lua* an#n %#u i unia m#ncaai 2,21 #r %ahun aa #ri# %ahun 1980 hina 201<. "ua* an#n %#u i unia aa %ahun 1980 %#rca%a% han$a 1<,28 u%a ha an m#nin'a% m#nai 2,87 u%a ha i%ahun 201<.

amar 4.7. +#r'#manan "ua* +an#n #u Dunia, 1980C201<

51: Sentra Luas Panen Te(u Dunia ;i'a m#nc#rma%i aa a%a lua* an#n %#u *#%ia n#ara i unia (amar 4.8), ma'a #ra*ar'an a%a >&6, Bra*il la$a' in$a%a'an *#aai n#ara %#u i'ar#na'an lua* an#n %#u i n#ara ini *#cara ra%a-ra%a m#ncaai 9,4< u%a ha aa #ri# 2009-201<. "ua* an#n n#ara ini aalah %#r%ini i unia an ua 'ali lia% lua* an#n %#u i Inia $an m#rua'an n#ara #nan lua* an#n %#u %#r#*ar '#ua i unia ("amiran 20). Inn#*ia *#niri %#rca%a% *#aai n#ara #nan lua* an#n %#u %#r#*ar '#-7 i unia #nan ra%a-ra%a lua* an#n aa #ri# 2009-201< m#ncaai 445 riu ha.


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

amar 4.8. S#n%ra "ua* +an#n #u Dunia, a%a-ra%a 2009-201<

514 Perkem(an%an Produksi Te(u Dunia +#r'#manan ru'*i %#u unia ari %ahun 1980 hina 201< %#ru* m#nalami #nin'a%an, walauun aa %ahun 2009 %#rai #nurunan $an cu'u ra*%i* namun ru'*i %#u unia '#mali nai' aa %ahun 2010 (amar 4.8). a%a-ra%a #r%umuhan ru'*i *#lama #ri# %#r*#u% aalah *##*ar 2,<7 #r %ahun. !#nuru% a%a ari >&6, ru'*i %#u unia aa %ahun 201< $an m#ncaai 178 u%a %n ("amiran 19).

amar 4.9. +#r'#manan +ru'*i #u Dunia, 1980C201< #6


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

5110 Sentra Produksi Te(u Dunia D#nan lua* an#n %#rlua* i unia, Brail %#rca%a% *#aai n#ara ru*#n u%ama %#u unia #nan ra%a-ra%a ru'*i aa %ahun 2009201< m#ncaai 72 u%a %n %#u a%au 40,7 ra%a-ra%a ru'*i %#u unia i #ri# %ahun $an *ama (amar 4.10). N#ara-n#ara #nha*il %#u %#r#*ar *#lanu%n$a aalah Inia #nan 'n%riu*i 18,1 a%au ra%a-ra%a m#nha*il'an <24 u%a %n %#u *#lama #ri# 2009-201< i*u*ul l#h Mhina #nan ra%a-ra%a ru'*i m#ncaai 118 u%a %n (,<) *#lama #ri# $an *ama. Inn#*ia *#niri aalah ru*#n %#u '#-10 unia #nan ra%a-ra%a ru'*i %#u m#ncaai 27 u%a %n #r%ahun aa #ri# 2009-201<. Da%a n#ara-n#ara ru*#n %#u %#r#*ar unia aa% iliha% aa "amiran 21.

amar 4.10 S#n%ra +ru'*i ula Dunia, a%a-ra%a 2009-201<

5111 Perkem(an%an Produktiitas Te(u Dunia +ru'%ii%a* %#u unia ari %ahun 1980 hina 201< c#n#run m#nin'a%, namun *#a' %ahun 2008, ru'%ii%a* %#u unia c#n#run *%ail i an'a  %nha (amar 4.10). !#nuru% a%a ari >&6, ru'%ii%a* %#r%ini %#u unia %#rcaai aa %ahun 200 $ai%u *##*ar 7,<5 %nha. S#m#n%ara aa %ahun 201<, ru'%ii%a* %#u unia m#ncaai , %nha a%au l#ih r#nah <,21 ianin'an %ahun 2012 ("amiran 19). Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian #7

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

amar 4.11. +#r'#manan +ru'%ii%a* #u Dunia, 1980-201<

52 PE+KE/B)&*)& EKSPO+ D)& I/PO+ *UL) )SE)& dan DU&I)

521 Perkem(an%an 3olume Eks'or dan Im'or *ula )SE)& ?lum# #'*r an imr ula n#ara-n#ara &S&N, #ra*ar'an a%a >&6, *ana% #r3lu'%ua*i aa #ri# %ahun 1980-201<. Namun ari amar 4.12 %#rliha% ahwa alam an'a anan lum# #'*r mauun lum# imr ula ari n#ara-n#ara an%a &S&N #r'#c#n#runan m#nin'a% #nan ra%a-ra%a #r%umuhan #r %ahun m#ncaai 5,74 un%u' lum# #'*r an 8,2 un%u' lum# imr. =n%u' lum# #'*r %#r%ini, >&6 m#nca%a% %#rai aa %ahun 2011 imana aa %ahun %#r*#u% n#ara-n#ara &S&N m#la'u'an a'%ii%a* #'*r ula *#umlah 4,7 u%a %n ula. S#m#n%ara lum# imr %#r%ini %#rai i %ahun 201< $an m#ncaai 5,04 u%a %n. Da%a lum# #'*r an lum# imr ula ari n#ara-n#ara &S&N aa% iliha% aa "amiran 22.

#%


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

amar 4.12. +#r'#manan ?lum# '*r an Imr ula &S&N, 1980-201<

522 Perkem(an%an &ilai Eks'or dan Im'or *ula )SE)& "ain haln$a #nan #r'#manan lum# #'*r an imr n#ara-n#ara &S&N, #r'#manan nilai #'*r an imr 'awa*an ini c#n#run %ia' %#rlalu #r3lu'%ua*i aa #ri# 1980-201< (amar 4.1<). !#*'iun #mi'ian, aa #ri# 2008-201<, %#rai #nin'a%an nilai #'*r an imr n#ara-n#ara &S&N $an cu'u %ini. "au #r%umuhan nilai #'*r aa #ri# %#r*#u% %#rca%a% m#ncaai <1,77 #r %ahun aaun nilai imr m#nin'a% 2,54 #r %ahun. Duaan *#m#n%ara %#r'ai% hal ini aalah ama' 'ri*i* #'nmi $an ialami l#h unia %#ru%aman$a i &m#ri'a S#ri'a%. Dari amar 4.1< %#rliha% ahwa n#ara-n#ara &S&N aa #ri# %ahun 1980-201< mamu m#nca%a%'an *urlu* #raanan ula m#r#'a hamir i*#%ia %ahun. Dari amar %#r*#u% #3i*i% #raanan ula n#ara-n#ara &S&N %#rai aa %ahun 1999-2002, %ahun 2005-2007, %ahun 2009-2011 an %ahun 201<. Nilai #'*r ula %#r%ini ari n#ara-n#ara &S&N %#rai aa %ahun 2012 #nan nilai #raanan m#ncaai 2,7 u%a =SO. Da%a nilai #'*r an imr ula n#ara-n#ara &S&N i*ai'an *#cara l#n'a aa "amiran 22.


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

amar 4.1<. +#r'#manan Nilai '*r an Imr ula &S&N, 1980-201<

52 Perkem(an%an 3olume Eks'or dan Im'or *ula Dunia B#r#a #nan lum# #'*r an imr ula ari n#ara-n#ara &S&N, lum# #'*r an imr ula unia %#rliha% %ia' %#rlalu #r3lu'%ua*i ari %ahun '# %ahun (amar 4.14). Dari amar 4.14 %#rliha% lum# #'*r an imr ula unia m#mili'i '#c#n#runan m#nin'a% *#%ia %ahunn$a. #c#n#runan #nin'a%an lum# #'*r an imr ula unia ini m#nunu''an ahwa ula m#rua'an 'mi%i $an r#la%i3 a'%i3 i#raan'an l#h unia. "#ih auh, "amiran 2< m#n$ai'an a%a #r'#manan lum# #'*r an imr ula unia.

amar 4.14. +#r'#manan ?lum# '*r an Imr ula Dunia, 1980-201<

$0


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

525 Perkem(an%an &ilai Eks'or dan Im'or *ula Dunia B#r#a #nan '#raaan nilai #'*r an imr ula ari n#aran#ara

&S&N,

nilai

imr

ula

unia

umumn$a

l#ih

%ini

ianin'an #nan nilai #'*r ula unia. @al ini %#rliha% aa amar 4.15 $an m#nunu''an #r'#manan nilai #'*r an imr ula unia aa #ri# 1980-201< alam *a%uan riu lar &S. #rliha% ari amar %#r*#u% ahwa unia alam #ri# %ahun 1980-201< *#cara umum m#nca%a%'an #3i*i% #raanan ula aa hamir i*#%ia %ahunn$a. Nilai imr ula %#r%ini %#rai aa %ahun 2011 #nan nilai #raanan m#ncaai 22,7 miliar =SO. Da%a nilai #'*r an imr ula unia i*ai'an *#cara l#n'a aa "amiran 2<.

amar 4.15. +#r'#manan Nilai '*r an Imr ula Dunia, 1980-201<

Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian $1

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

5 PE+KE/B)&*)& KETE+SEDI))& *UL) )SE)& D)& DU&I) 51 Perkem(an%an Ketersediaan *ula )SE)& +#r'#manan '#%#r*#iaan ula i an%ara n#ara-n#ara an%a &S&N i*ai'an alam amar 4.1 an "amiran 24. Dari amar 4.1 %#rliha% ahwa ian%ara n#ara-n#ara &S&N '#%#r*#iaan ula c#n#run m#nin'a%

m#*'iun i %ahun-%ahun %#r%#n%u %#rai

#nurunan '#%#r*#iaan. ;i'a iliha% '#mali lum# #'*r, lum# imr an ru'*i ula i an%ara n#ara-n#ara &S&N %#rliha% ahwa *um#r u%ama #nurunan ini aalah aan$a #nurunan ru'*i ula i n#ara-n#ara &S&N. Da%a l#n'a '#%#r*#iaan ula i n#ara-n#ara &S&N aa% iliha% aa "amiran 24.

amar 4.1. +#r'#manan #%#r*#iaan ula &S&N, 1980-201<

$2


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

52 Perkem(an%an Ketersediaan *ula Dunia Sama haln$a #nan '#%#r*#iaan ula i &S&N, '#%#r*#iaan ula i unia *#lama #ri# %ahun 1980-201< c#n#run m#nalami '#nai'an m#*'iun aa ##raa %ahun '#%#r*#iaan ula unia m#nalami #nurunan (amar 4.17). ;i'a i#rha%i'an amar 4.17 an "amiran 25 $an m#n$ai'an '#raaan an a%a '#%#r*#iaan ula i unia, %#raa% '#*amaan la #r'#manan '#%#r*#iaan ula. +aa %ahun 2009, '#%#r*#iaan ula i unia m#nalami #nurunan *#aaimana '#%#r*#iaan ula i &S&N.

amar 4.17. +#r'#manan #%#r*#iaan ula Dunia, 1980-201<

Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian $#

2016

$$

OUTLOOK T EBU


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

B)B 3 )&)LISIS P+ODUKSI D)& KO&SU/SI TEBU 1

P+O;EKSI P+ODUKSI TEBU DI I&DO&ESI) T)"U& 201-2020

+#rila'u ru'*i ari *ua%u 'mi%a* ic#rmin'an l#h r#*n a%au '#u%u*an ru*#n %#rhaa m#'ani*m# a*ar an #naruh 3a'%r nn a*ar, $an alam hal ini ir#r#*#n%a*i'an l#h ru'*i. S#an'an #rila'u 'n*um*i 'mi%a* #r%anian ic#rmin'an l#h #naruh hara a*ar an '#'ua%an nn hara (%#'nli, 'ni*i 'ri*i*, an *#aain$a) %#rhaa '#u%u*an

#%ani

alam

m#mru'*i

'mi%a*

$an

iha*il'an

(&urachman, 2005). Dalam u%l' ini, r$#'*i ru'*i %#u a'an ila'u'an #nan m#nuna'an #n#'a%an ru'*i %#u i%u *#niri (alam wuu ula halur) an m#%# anali*i* #r#% wa'%u ( time series anal)sis). Da%a $an iuna'an aa r$#'*i ini aalah a%a &n'a #%a ru'*i ula halur %ahun 197-2015, #nan a%a %ahun 2015 aalah a%a &n'a S#m#n%ara, #r*um#r ari Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan. Dari ha*il #nilaian %#rhaa '#raaan ru'*i, %#rliha% ahwa *#ri#* a%a ru'*i %#u Inn#*ia m#mili'i %r#n m#nin'a% %ana aan$a ini'a*i mu*im (seasonal fa!tor ) . D#nan #mi'ian #nuli* m#mu%u*'an un%u' m#nuna'an m#%# anali*i* +#mulu*an '*n#n*ial B#rana #nan umlah *#ri#* a%a *#an$a' 49 %i%i'. !#*'iun #mi'ian #nuli* ua m#nca m#la'u'an r$#'*i #nan m#nuna'an m#%# anali*i* r#n an &I!&, namun '#ua anali*i* %#r*#u% 'uran m#m#nuhi 'ri%#ria '#la$a'an un%u' *#ri#* a%a ru'*i ula halur. Nilai !&+ *##*ar 8,< un%u' m#l $an i#rl#h aalah $an %#r'#cil ian%ara m#l-m#l lainn$a. D#nan #mi'ian, ma'a ha*il r$#'*i $an i#rl#h m#lalui m#l +#mulu*an '*n#n*ial B#rana ini iana cu'u un%u' iuna'an. @a*il ini *#lanu%n$a iuna'an *#aai r$#'*i ru'*i %ahun 201-2020. @a*il r$#'*i ru'*i ula %ahun 201-2020 aa% iliha% aa a#l 5.1.


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

a#l 5.1. @a*il +r$#'*i +ru'*i #u i Inn#*ia, 201-2020 Ta!un

Produksi
Pertum( <>=

Keteran%an

201

2.82.91

2017

2.71<.171

1,1<

Da%a *%ima*i Di%#n +#r'#(unan @a*il +r$#'*i

2018

2.74<.<81

1,11

@a*il +r$#'*i

2019

2.77<.590

1,10

@a*il +r$#'*i

2020

2.80<.800

1,09

@a*il +r$#'*i

+ata-rata Pertum(u!an

1711

Dari a#l 5.1 %#rliha% ahwa hina %ahun 2020 i#r'ira'an ru'*i %#u i Inn#*ia a'an m#nin'a% #nan ra%a-ra%a #r%umuhan 1,11 #r%ahun. ;i'a ianin'an #nan ru'*i %#u %ahun 201 (an'a *#m#n%ara Di%#n +#r'#unan) $an m#ncaai 2.82.91 %n, ma'a ru'*i %#u i %ahun 2020 i#r'ira'an a'an m#nin'a% m#nai 2.80<.800 %n.

$6


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

2 P+O;EKSI KO&SU/SI TEBU DI I&DO&ESI) T)"U& 201-2020 +r$#'*i 'n*um*i ula ila'u'an #nan a*ar 'n*um*i lan*un ula i rumah %ana. +r$#'*i 'n*um*i ini i#rl#h #nan m#nuna'an m#%# anali*i* 'utore$resive Inte$rated .ovin$ 'vera$e (&I!&) %#rhaa a%a 'n*um*i lan*un rumah %ana. Da%a $an iuna'an alam r$#'*i ini aalah a%a 'n*um*i ula %ahun 2002-2015 $an #r*um#r ari @a*il Sur#i S*ial 'nmi Na*inal (Su*#na*) $an ila'u'an l#h B+S. +#milihan anali*i* &I!& ia*ar'an aa #r%imanan %uuan anali*i* 'n*um*i ula $an han$a inin m#n#%ahui r$#'*i 'n*um*i ula i %ahun 201 hina 2020 an m#liha%

aan$a

'#c#n#runan

un*ur-un*ur

au%

r#r#*i

an

%ia'

*%a%in#rn$a a%a 'n*um*i ula *#%ia %ahunn$a. n*um*i ula %ahun 2012020 '#muian i#rl#h #nan m#nali'an r$#'*i 'n*um*i lan*un ula rumah %ana #nan r$#'*i umlah #nuu' Inn#*ia %ahun 201-2020 $an #r*um#r ari B+S (Baan +u*a% S%a%i*%i', 201<). D#nan m#nuna'an anali*i* ini i#rl#h nilai !&+ *##*ar 0,<<. Nilai ini aalah $an %#r'#cil ian%ara m#l-m#l lain $an %#r*#ia *#hina m#l ini aalah m#l %#rai' $an a'an iuna'an un%u' m#mr$#'*i'an 'n*um*i ula i Inn#*ia. +r$#'*i 'n*um*i ula %ahun 201C2020 #nan m#nuna'an m#l ini i*ai'an aa a#l 5.2. Dari %a#l %#r*#u% %#rliha% ahwa 'n*um*i lan*un rumah %ana un%u' ula ir$#'*i a'an m#nurun i %ahun 201 an aa %ahun-%ahun #ri'u%n$a. +aa a#l 5.2 ua i*ai'an r$#'*i umlah #nuu' #nan a%a $an #r*um#r ari B+S. Dalam r$#'*i ini, umlah #nuu' aa %ahun 2012020 i#r'ira'an a'an m#nin'a% *#%ia %ahunn$a. D#nan 'n*um*i lan*un rumah %ana un%u' ula $an ir$#'*i'an m#nurun *#%ia %ahunn$a *##*ar 4,1 an #r%umuhan #nuu' $an ir$#'*i'an han$a 1,17, ma'a 'n*um*i ula un%u' 'n*um*i rumah %ana i#r'ira'an a'an m#nurun #nan ra%a-ra%a #nurunan m#ncaai <,0< #r %ahunn$a. @al ini #rar%i 'n*um*i a'an ula un%u' 'n*um*i rumah %ana m#nai han$a *##*ar 1,< u%a %n i %ahun 2020 ianin'an %ahun 201.


2016

EBU OUTLOOK T T EBU

a#l 5.2. @a*il +r$#'*i n*um*i "an*un ula #u i umah ana Inn#*ia, 201-2020

Ta!un

Konsumsi Pertum( =

Jumla! Penduduk <000 Ka'ita=

Konsum umsi si Pertum( Kons <>= *ula
Pert Pertum um( ( <>=

201

5,95

2017

5,72

-<,87

21.891

1,2<

1.498.01

-2,8

2018

5,48

-4,20

25.015

1,19

1.452.284

-<,05

2019

5,25

-4,20

27.974

1,12

1.40.85

-<,1<

2020

5,02

-4,<8

271.0

1,15

1.<0.75<

-<,28

1716

-70

+ata-rata Pe Pertum( <> <>=

258.705

-571

1.5<9.295

!#*'iun %#lah i'#%ahui #r'iraan 'n*um*i ula un%u' rumah %ana aa %ahun 201 hina 2020 #nan m#nuna'an a%a S=SN&S, namun #mi'ian %ia' *#mua ula $an iru'*i i'n*um*i lan*un l#h *#c%r rumah %ana. @al ini aa% %#rliha% ari rr*i 'n*um*i lan*un rumah %ana %#rhaa ru'*i ula $an ra%a-ra%a han$a 82,02 #r %ahun (a#l 5.<). D#nan #mi'ian, *#aai n#ara imr%ir ula, *#'i%ar 2 ru'*i ula ul a Inn# Inn#*ia *ia iuna iuna'an 'an un%u' un%u' '##rlu '##rluan an inu*%r inu*%rii aa aa *#%ia *#%ia %ahunn$ %ahunn$a. a. Di*i*i lain, *#*uai #nan #u%u*an !#n%#ri +#rinu*%rian an +#raanan I N. 527!++ 527!++# #9 9200 2004 4 %anal %anal 17 S#%#m S#%#m#r #r 2004 %#n%an %#n%an #%#n% #%#n%uan uan Imr ula, m#n$#u%'an ahwa '#u%uhan ula un%u' *#'%r inu*%ri ua i#nuhi l#h ula $an #ra*al ari imr. D#nan 'a%a lain, a*'an ula un%u' *#'%r inu*%ri aa% #ra*al ari ru'*i ari alam n##ri an imr ula. =n%u' m#n#%ahui rr*i 'n*um*i ula un%u' *#'%r inu*%ri i'a a*' a*'an an u ula la #ra #ra*al *al ari ari ru ru'* '*ii ala alam m n# n## #ri ri an imr imr u ula la ma'a ma'a iuna'an in3rma*i alam a#l Inu% 6u%u% un%u' 'mi%a* ula. Dalam a#l a#l Inu% Inu% 6u%u% 6u%u%,, #n$#i #n$#iaan aan aalah aalah m#rua' m#rua'an an umlah umlah ari ari ru'* ru'*ii alam n##ri an imr 'mi%a* #r*an'u%an.

%$usat us at !at !ata a dan dan Siste Sistem m In"or In"ormas masii erta ertania nian n

2016

EBU OUTLOOK T T EBU

B#ra*ar'an a#l Inu% 6u%u% 'mi%a* ula %ahun 2005 (Baan +u*a% S%a%i*%i', 2008), i'#%ahui ahwa 51,20 ula i Inn#*ia iuna'an *#a *#aa aii aha ahan n ma'a ma'ana nan n an an minum minuman an i ruma rumah h %ana %ana.. S#'% S#'%rr inu* inu*%r %ri, i, %#rma*u' ialamn$a rumah ma'an, h%#l an a*a an'u%an, m#nuna'an 4,98 ula i Inn#*ia an 1,82 *i*an$a m#rua'an #ruahan *%' an #'* #' *rr ("am ("ami ira ran n 2). 2). D#n D#nan an m# m#n nu una na'a 'an n in3 in3rm rma*i a*i ini, ini, ma'a ma'a aa aa%% i#r'ira'an #nunaan ula aa *#'%r inu*%ri i *#%ia %ahunn$a. a#l 5.4 m#n$ai'an #r'iraan #nunaan ula un%u' *#%ia *#'%r alam a#l Inu% 6u%u% ula #nan m#nuna'an a%a r$#'*i 'n*um*i ula i rumah %ana. a#l 5.<. 5.<. +rr*i +rr*i n*um*i n*um*i umah umah ana ana %#rhaa %#rhaa +ru'*i +ru'*i ula ula Inn#*ia, 2002-2015 Ta!un

Konsumsi
2002 200< 2004 2005 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201< 2014 2015

9,20 9,07 8,9< 8,89 8,04 8,2 8,4< 7,90 7,9 7,<8 ,48 ,5 ,41 ,18

Jumla! Penduduk <000 Oran%= 225.42 228.52< 2<1.<70 21.415 222.747 225.42 228.52< 2<1.<70 2<8.519 241.991 245.425 248.818 252.15 255.42

Permintaan +uma! Tan%%a
Produksi
P Pro'orsi ro'orsi Konsumsi t!d Produksi <>=

1.755.<54 1.<1.918 2.051.44 2.241.742 2.051.44 2.517.<74 2.94.227 2.517.<74 2.290.11 2.27.887 2.591.87 2.551.02 2.579.17< 2.2<.9<1

118,<0 12,98 100,7 85,78 87,24 77,<0 71,52 72,5 80,10 78,78 1,<< 4,84 2, 0,1

+ata-rata Pro'orsi <>= 2002-201 2011-201 Sum#r: B+S, ilah +u*a%in

:2702 7


$9

2016

EBU OUTLOOK T T EBU

a#l 5.4. @a*il +r$#'*i n*um*i ula S#%ia S#'%r i a#l Inu% an 6u%u% ula, 201-2020 Konsumsi *ula
+uma! Tan%%a

Industri

Lainn$a

Total

201

1.5<9.295

1.417.92

54.<0

<.011.887

2017

1.498.01

1.<79.9<7

48.974

2.92.927

2018

1.452.284

1.<<7.810

47.479

2.8<7.57<

2019

1.40.85

1.295.971

49.9<0

2.752.75

2020

1.<0.75<

1.25<.494

48.29<

2.2.541

#%#ranan: +#r*#n%a*# #nunaan ula un%u' umah ana aalah 51 +#r*#n%a*# #nunaan ula un%u' Inu*%ri In u*%ri aalah 47 +#r*#n%a*# #nunaan ula un%u' "ainn$a aalah 2 Sum#r: a#l Inu% 6u%u%, B+S ilah +u*a%in

 P+O;EKSI SU+PLUS?DE,ISIT *UL) DI I&DO&ESI) T)"U& 201-2020 Dalam m#n#r#mah'an ha*il r$#'*i 'n*um*i ula alam u%l' ini, #rlu #rlu iina%' iina%'an an '#m '#mali ali ahwa ahwa r$#' r$#'*i *i 'n 'n*um *um*i *i ul ula a i#r i#rl#h l#h #nan #nan m#n m# nu una na'a 'an n a%a a%a ' 'n*u n*um*i m*i u ula la ha*i ha*ill Sur# Sur#ii S*i S*ial al ' 'n nm mii Na*i Na*ina nall (Su*#na*) *#aai a%a a*ar anali*i*. +r$#'*i 'n*um*i ula un%u' *#'%r inu*%ri an #nunaan lainn$a '#muian i#rl#h #nan m#nuna'an in3rma*i aa a#l Inu% 6u%u% ula imana #nunaan ula un%u' rumah %ana aalah 51,2 ari %%al #nunaan ula, *##*ar 4,98 #nunaan ula i inu*%ri an 1,82 #nunaan ula un%u' hal lainn$a. a#l 5.5 m#n$ai'an ha*il r$#'*i ru'*i an 'n*um*i ula *#r%a 'n ' ni*i i*i *url *urlu* u* a%au a%au #3i #3i*i *i%% a*' a*'an an u ula la In Inn# n#*ia *ia.. Dari Dari ha*il ha*il r$# r$#'*i '*i ru'*i an 'n*um*i ula i Inn#*ia aa %ahun 201-2020, i'#%ahui ahwa aa #ri# %#r*#u% Inn#*ia a'an m#nalami #3i*i% a*'an ula hina m#ncaai ra%a-ra%a 94.958 %n #r%ahunn$a. +aa %ahun 2014 #3i*i% ula u la In Inn# n#*i *ia a i# i#r' r'ir ira'a a'an n *##* *##*ar ar 4<8. 4<8.292 292 %n namu namun n i %ahun %ahun 2019 2019 ir$#'*i'an m#nurun m#nai han$a 4.558 %n.

50

usat us at !at !ata a dan dan Siste Sistem m In"or In"ormas masii erta ertania nian n

OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

a#l 5.5. +r$#'*i D#3i*i% ula i Inn#*ia, 201-2020 Pro$eksi *ula
Konsumsi

Sur'lus?Defisit

201

2.82.91

<.011.887

-<28.925

2017

2.71<.171

2.92.927

-21<.75

2018

2.74<.<81

2.8<7.57<

-94.192

2019

2.77<.590

2.752.75

20.82

2020

2.80<.800

2.2.541

141.20

+ata-rata

-454:

5 P+O;EKSI KETE+SEDI))& *UL) DI )SE)& T)"U& 2015-2020 =n%u' m#n#%ahui amaran '#%#r*#iaan ula i 'awa*an &S&N i ma*a $an a'an a%an, ma'a #rlu ila'u'an r$#'*i '#%#r*#iaan ula #nan a%a $an #r*um#r ari >&6. Dari ha*il #nilaian %#rhaa l% a%a '#%#r*#iaan ula i an%ara n#ara-n#ara &S&N, i%#n%u'an ahwa anali*i* #r#% wa'%u $an a'an iuna'an aalah !#l &I!& %ana !u*iman. @a*il anali*i* m#l ini m#m#ri'an nilai !&+ %#r'#cil ian%ara m#l lainn$a $ai%u *##*ar 7,42. +r$#'*i '#%#r*#iaan ula ian%ara n#ara-n#ara &S&N #ri# %ahun 2014-2020 i*ai'an aa a#l 5.. +aa %ahun 2015 '#%#r*#iaan ula %#u ian%ara n#ara-n#ara &S&N m#ncaai 17.851.20 %n ula an m#nin'a% m#nai 17.858.297 %n ula i %ahun 201. Di %ahun 2020, '#%#r*#iaan ula i &S&N i#r'ira'an m#ncaai 17.859.811 %n.


51

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

a#l 5.. +r$#'*i #%#r*#iaan ula i &S&N, 2014-2020

Pro$eksi Ta!un

Pertum(

Ketersediaan
<>=

2014

17.810.248

2015

17.851.20

0,2<

201

17.858.297

0,04

2017

17.859.54

0,01

2018

17.859.7

0,00

2019

17.859.804

0,00

2020

17.859.811

0,00

+ata-rata

070

 P+O;EKSI KETE+SEDI))& *UL) DI DU&I) T)"U& 2015-2020 Sama haln$a #nan r$#'*i '#%#r*#iaan ula i &S&N, r$#'*i '#%#r*#iaan ula Dunia un%u' %ahun 2014-2020, ua ila'u'an m#nuna'an anali*i* #r#% wa'%u #nan !#l &I!& %ana >a'%r !u*iman. +#milihan anali*i* !#l &I!& %ana !u*iman ia*ar'an aa '#cc'an a%a #rhi%unan #nan m#l $an i#rl#h ianin'an #nan a%a *##narn$a. #cc'an ini aa% #nan muah inilai m#lalui nilai !&+ $an i#rl#h m#nuna'an m#l $an i%awar'an. Nilai !a# ari !#l &I!& %ana !u*iman aalah 4,008, %#r'#cil ari *#luruh m#l $an mun'in un%u' a%a '#%#r*#iaan ula unia. @a*il r$#'*i '#%#r*#iaan ula i Dunia aa %ahun 2014-2020 i*ai'an aa a#l 5.7. Dari ha*il r$#'*i ula i Dunia, %#rliha% ahwa '#%#r*#iaan ula i Dunia

c#n#run

%urun

aa

#ri#

#r%umuhan

52


2014-2020

#nan

ra%a-ra%a

OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

*##*ar 0,05 #r %ahun. +aa %ahun 2020, i unia i#r'ira'an %#r*#ia ula hina m#ncaai 175.07.7<7 %n. a#l 5.7. +r$#'*i #%#r*#iaan ula Dunia, 2014-2020

Pro$eksi Ta!un

Ketersediaan
Pertum( <>=

2014

175.579.92

2015

174.100.997

-0,84

201

174.759.075

0,<8

2017

175.7<1.<4

0,5

2018

175.7<5.914

0,00

2019

175.247.757

-0,28

2020

175.07.7<7

-0,10

+ata-rata

-070


5#

2016

5$

OUTLOOK T EBU


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

B)B 3I KESI/PUL)& 1

KESI/PUL)&

+#r'#unan %#u i Inn#*ia *#aian #*ar iuia$a'an l#h ra'$a% *#aai ahan a'u #mua%an ula a*ir. @ina %ahun 201<, #r'#unan %#u un%u' ula a*ir i Inn#*ia han$a aa% i%#mui i 9 rin*i $ai%u Suma%#ra =%ara, rn%al, "amun, Suma%#ra S#la%an, ;awa Bara%, DI $a'ar%a, ;awa #nah, ;awa imur, an Sulaw#*i S#la%an. Dian%ara 9 rin*i %#r*#u%, aa %ahun 2012-201, ;awa imur aalah #nha*il %#u %#r#*ar i Inn#*ia #nan 'n%riu*i %#u ari ;awa imur m#ncaai 49,14 ari ru'*i %#u Inn#*ia. +ru'*i %#u Inn#*ia ($an iu'ur alam wuu ula halur) *#niri aa %ahun 2015 (an'a *#m#n%ara) m#ncaai 2.579.17< %n $an #ra*al ari 477.12< ha lua* an#n %#u. &aun 'n*um*i ula i Inn#*ia i%ahun $an *ama #ra*ar'an ha*il S=SN&S m#ncaai ,8 ''ai%a. in'a% 'n*um*i ini l#ih r#nah ianin'an %ahun *##lumn$a $an m#ncaai ,4 ''ai%a. ;i'a iliha% aa *i*i #raanan %#u an%ar n#ara, Inn#*ia i'#nal *#aai n#ara imr%ir ula. !#*'iun #mi'ian, #ra*ar'an a%a >&6, Inn#*ia aalah n#ara #nha*il ula %#r#*ar '#%ia i an%ara n#aran#ara 'awa*an &S&N #nan lua* an#n %#r#*ar '#ua i'awa*an ini. &aun i unia, Inn#*ia %#rca%a% *#aai n#ara '#*#uluh #nha*il ula %#r#*ar #nan lua* an#n %#r#*ar '#%uuh i unia. =n%u' r$#'*i ru'*i ula #nan m#nuna'an m#%# anali*i* #r#% wa'%u #Dou*le E+onential Smoot"in$% i'#%ahui ahwa ru'*i ula Inn#*ia a'an m#nin'a% *##*ar 4,50 a%au m#nai 2.80<.800 %n i %ahun 2020 ianin'an ru'*i ula i%ahun 201 $an i#r'ira'an han$a m#ncaai 2.82.91 %n. +r$#'*i ru'*i ini i#r'ira'an l#ih %ini ianin'an 'n*um*i ula i%ahun $an *ama. n*um*i ula i %ahun 2020 i#r'ira'an m#ncaai 2.2.541 %n *#hina i#r'ira'an a'an %#rai *urlu* a*'an ula i Inn#*ia. Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian 55

2016

56

OUTLOOK T EBU


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

D),T)+ PUST)K) &urachman, i. 2008. +r$#'*i +ru'*i an n*um*i B#ra* 2007-2010. 4urnal Eonomi 5 .edia Ilmia" Indonusa. ?l. <0 N. 1, hlm. 18-192. S##r%i %#rliha% aa 0 &u*%u* 2012, i h%%:i*.ii.lii..iaminurnal1<10818192.3 P%#rhuun #r'alaQ Barn#*, &. M. 197<. T"e Su$ar 3ane. 2n #. "#nar @ill B'*. "nn Baan +u*a% S%a%i*%i'. 2008. Ta*el In+ut Out+ut Indonesia/ 200 . Baan +u*a% S%a%i*%i'. ;a'ar%a. Baan +u*a% S%a%i*%i'. 201<. Pro)esi Pendudu Indonesia/ 2010,207. Baan +u*a% S%a%i*%i'. ;a'ar%a. Blac'urn, >ran'. 1984. Su$ar!ane. "nman +uli*hin "%. "nn D#wan ula Inn#*ia. 2002. Pa*ri 8ula Indonesia. Dalam Su*ila, /.., Bnar !. S. 2005. &nali*i* #ia'an Inu*%ri ula Inn#*ia. 4urnal '$ro Eonomi. ?lum# 2<. N. 1, hlm <0-<5. S##r%i %#rliha% aa 0 &u*%u* 2012, i h%%:*#.li%an.#%an..iin33il#*;&202<-1.3 P%#rhuun #r'alaQ Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan. 2012. Pedoman Tenis5 -e"a*ilitasi dan Perluasan Tanaman Te*u Ta"un 2012. #m#n%#rian +#r%anian. ;a'ar%a. Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan. 2014. Statisti Pere*unan Indonesia5 Te*u 2017,201. #m#n%#rian +#r%anian. ;a'ar%a. > an &ricul%ur# 6rania%in 3 =ni%# Na%in, 2009. &ood Outloo 5 8lo*al .aret 'nal)sis/ 4une 2009 . > an &ricul%ur# 6rania%in 3 =ni%# Na%in. S##r%i %#rliha% aa 0 &u*%u* 2012, i 3%:3%.3a.r cr#3a011ai482#ai482#00.3 P%#rhuun #r'alaQ > an &ricul%ur# 6rania%in 3 =ni%# h%%:3a*%a%.3a.r P%#rhuun #r'alaQ

Na%in

(>&6).

2015.

!arian%, S., +. Sima%uan, +. =. @ai, @. !alian, &. Su*miai. 2005. +#%a ;alan (-oad .a+) an #ia'an +#n#manan Inu*%ri ula Na*inal. &orum Penelitian '$ro Eonomi. ?l. 2< N. 1, hlm. 19-<7. S##r%i %#rliha% aa 0 &u*%u* 2012, i h%%:*#.li%an.#%an..iin33il#*>&2<-1.3 P%#rhuun #r'alaQ


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

+a'ahan, &. 2000. .em*an$un em*ali industri $ula Indonesia. Dalam Su*ila, /. ., Bnar !. S., 2005. +#n#manan Inu*%ri ula Inn#*ia an m#%i%i3 +aa Si%ua*i +#r*ainan an &il. 4urnal Lit*an$ Pertanian. ?lum# 24, N. 1, hlm. 1-9. S##r%i %#rliha% aa 0 &u*%u* 2012, i h%%:u*%a'a.li%an.#%an..iuli'a*i<241051.3 P%#rhuun #r'alaQ +u*a%Da%a an Si*%#m In3rma*i +#r%anian. 2012. Outloo Komoditas Pere*unan. #m#n%#rian +#r%anian. ;a'ar%a. +u*a% Da%a an Si*%#m In3rma*i +#r%anian. 2014. Outloo Komoditi Te*u. #m#n%#rian +#r%anian. ;a'ar%a. +u*a% Da%a an Si*%#m In3rma*i +#r%anian. 2015. Outloo Komoditi Ko+i. #m#n%#rian +#r%anian. ;a'ar%a. +u*a% Da%a an Si*%#m In3rma*i +#r%anian. 2015. Basisdata Es+or,Im+or Komoditas Pertanian. #m#n%#rian +#r%anian. ;a'ar%a. h%%:a%aa*#.#%an..i#'*imin#x1.a* P%#rhuun #r'alaQ +u*a% Da%a an Si*%#m In3rma*i +#r%anian. 2014. Buletin Konsumsi Pan$an. ?l. 5 N.1 hlm. <9-4. #m#n%#rian +#r%anian. ;a'ar%a. Sawi%, !. @. 2010. #ia'an Swa*#maa ula: &an$a $an uranR. 4urnal 'nalisis Ke*i:aan Pertanian. ?lum# 8 N. 4, hlm. 285-<05. S##r%i %#rliha% aa 0 &u*%u* 2012, i h%%:*#.li%an.#%an..iin33il#*&8-4a.3 P%#rhuun #r'alaQ Shar#, +#%#r. 1998. Suar Man# : +a*% an +r#*#n%. Et"no*otani!al Leaflets. ?l. 1998, I**. <, &r%icl# . S##r%i %#rliha% aa 0 &u*%u* 2012, i h%%:#n*iuc.li.*iu.#u#ll1998i**< P%#rhuun #r'alaQ a

Su*ila, /. ., Bnar !. S., 2005. +#n#manan Inu*%ri ula Inn#*ia an m#%i%i3 +aa Si%ua*i +#r*ainan an &il. 4urnal Penelitian dan Pen$em*an$an Pertanian. ?lum# 24, N. 1, hlm. 1-9. S##r%i %#rliha% aa 0 &u*%u* 2012, i h%%:u*%a'a.li%an.#%an..iuli'a*i<241051.3 P%#rhuun #r'alaQ 

5%

Su*ila, /. ., Bnar !. S., 2005. &nali*i* #ia'an Inu*%ri ula Inn#*ia. 4urnal '$ro Eonomi. ?l. 2<, N. 1, hlm. <0-5<. S##r%i %#rliha% aa 0 &u*%u* 2012, i h%%:*#.li%an.#%an..iin33il#*;& 202<-1.3 P%#rhuun #r'alaQ


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

'rir, @. S. 1999. Industri 8ula di Luar 4a;a. Dalam !.@. Sawi%, +. Suharn, an &. achman (#*), Eonomi 8ula Indonesia, I+B: +r#**. Br. m#', /. an .". in*n, 1981. '$ri!ultural Produ!t Pri!es. Dalam !.6. &$ana, 2004. +#n#raan !#l +#n$#*uaian +ar*ial N#rl# Dalam +r$#'*i +ru'*i Dan n*um*i B#ra*. 4urnal Sosial Eonomi Pertanian dan '$ri*isnis #SO3'%. ?l. 4, N. 1, hlm. 57-71. S##r%i %#rliha% aa 0 i &u*%u* 2012, h%%:urnal.ii.lii..iaminurnal41045771.3 P%#rhuun #r'alaQ aini, &chma. 2008. +#naruh @ara ula Imr, @ara ula Dm#*%i' Dan +ru'*i ula Dm#*%i' #rhaa n*um*i ula Imr Di Inn#*ia. 4urnal Eonomi Pertanian dan Pem*an$unan, ?l. 5N. 2. S##r%i %#rliha% aa 0 &u*%u* 2012, i h%%*:arii*ni*3umurnal.3il#*.wrr#**.cm 20120<urnal-l5-n-2-aini.3 P%#rhuun #r'alaQ ?#rh#$#, /ill$. 2005. rw%h an +ruc%in 3 Suarcan#. En!)!lo+edia of Life Su++ort S)stems #EOLSS% . ?l. II hlm. 208-242. 6"SS +uli*h#r. +ari*.


2016

60

OUTLOOK T EBU


OUTLOOK T EBU

2016

L)/PI+)&


61

2016

62

OUTLOOK T EBU


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 1 Perkem(an%an Luas Panen Te(u di Indonesia /enurut Status Pen%usa!aan7 14:0@201AA= Luas Panen <"a= Ta!un

P+

Pertum( <>=

PB& Pertum( <>=

PBS

1980

259.874

35,45 37.629

-70,16 18.560

1981

290.470

11,77 36.722

-2,41 18.996

1982

303.228

4,39 43.043

17,21 17.049

1983

315.649

4,10 49.152

1984

236.810

1985

1986

Pertum( I&DO&ESI) Pertum( <>= <>= -27,31

316.063

-8,01

2,35 346.188

9,53

-10,25

363.320

4,95

14,19 19.572

14,80 384.373

5,79

-24,98 85.569

74,09 19.629

0,29 342.008

-11,02

225.787

-4,65 95.079

11,11 19.363

-1,36 340.229

-0,52

238.509

5,63 69.168

-27,25 18.026

-6,90 325.703

-4,27

1987

241.169

1,12 75.926

9,77 17.823

-1,13 334.918

2,83

1988

254.669

5,60 92.368

21,66 18.492

3,75 365.529

9,14

1989

249.933

-1,86 77.378

-16,23 30.441

64,62 357.752

-2,13

1990

259.877

3,98 71.252

-7,92 32.839

7,88 363.968

1,74

1991

255.934

-1,52 96.625

35,61 33.745

2,76 386.304

6,14

1992

262.092

2,41 105.905

9,60 36.065

6,88 404.062

4,60

1993

280.504

7,03 104.460

-1,36 40.689

12,82 425.653

5,34

1994

276.581

-1,40 107.570

2,98 44.585

9,58 428.736

0,72

1995

263.157

-4,85 120.162

11,71 52.718

18,24 436.037

1,70

1996

304.047

15,54 79.269

-34,03 63.217

19,92 446.533

2,41

1997

218.201

-28,23 85.086

7,34 83.591

32,23 386.878

-13,36

1998

195.048

-10,61 83.069

-2,37 98.972

18,40 377.089

-2,53

1999

176.733

-9,39 82.106

-1,16 83.372

2000

171.279

-3,09 64.133

-21,89 105.248

2001

178.887

4,44 87.687

36,73 77.867

344.441

1,11

2002

196.509

9,85 79.975

-8,79 74.238

-4,66 350.722

1,82

2003

172.015

-12,46 87.251

9,10 76.459

2,99 335.725

-4,28

2004

184.283

7,13 78.205

-10,37 82.305

7,65 344.793

2,70

2005

211.479

14,76 80.383

2,78 89.924

9,26 381.786

10,73

2006

213.876

1,13 87.227

8,51 95.338

6,02 396.441

3,84

2007

249.487

16,65 81.655

-6,39 96.657

1,38 427.799

7,91

2008

252.783

1,32 82.222

0,69 101.500

5,01 436.505

2,04

2009

243.219

-3,78 74.185

-9,77 105.549

3,99 422.953

-3,10

2010

261.665

7,58 68.141

-8,15 102.909

-2,50 432.715

2,31

2011

278.698

6,51 67.020

6,55 105.115

2,14 450.833

4,19

2012

265.233

-4,83 77.690

7,01 106.225

1,06 449.148

-0,37

2013

289.279

9,07 67.285

0,36 110.077

3,63 466.641

3,89

2014

289.988

0,25 77.497

0,36 109.638

-0,40 477.123

2,25

-15,76

342.211

-9,25

26,24 340.660

-0,45

-26,02

2015*)

274.951

-5,19 74.063

0,36 112.718

2,81 461.732

-3,23

2016**)

283.417

3,08 76.403

0,36 112.873

0,14 472.693

2,37

172

71

1701

:724 271:

07:6 171

+ata-rata Lau Pertum(u!an <>= 14:0-201 176

14:0-1446 175 711 144:-201 1761 0721 Sum#r : Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan, ilah +u*a%in #%#ranan : + : +#r'#unan a'$a% +BN : +#r'#unan B#*ar N#ara +BS : +#r'#unan B#*ar Swa*%a A)A : ahun 2015 &n'a S#m#n%ara AA) : ahun 201 &n'a *%ima*i


6#

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 2

Perkem(an%an Produksi Te(u di Indonesia /enurut Status Pen%usa!aan7 14:0@201AA= Produksi
Ta!un

P+

Pertum( <>=

PB&

Pertum( <>=

1980

893.120

1981

913.677

21,37 2,30

273.355

200.436

-26,68

-26,11

Pertum( I&DO&ESI) Pertum( <>= <>=

93.475

16,02 1.259.950

116.007

24,10 1.230.120

-2,37

6,20

1982

1.373.009

50,27

182.041

-9,18

71.752

-38,15 1.626.802

32,25

1983

1.240.500

-9,65

290.597

59,63

88.441

23,26 1.619.538

-0,45

1984

1.397.350

12,64

329.713

13,46

83.310

-5,80 1.810.373

11,78

1985

1.450.184

4,04

105.590

26,74 1.898.809

4,88

1986

1.567.552

3,78 8,09

343.035

346.130

0,90

100.892

-4,45 2.014.574

6,10

1987

1.743.677

11,24

322.758

-6,75

109.439

8,47 2.175.874

8,01

1988

1.575.083

-9,67

339.541

5,20

89.427

-18,29 2.004.051

-7,90

1989

1.621.468

2,94

305.847

-9,92

181.033

102,44 2.108.348

5,20

1990

1.609.041

-0,77

306.263

0,14

204.281

12,84 2.119.585

0,53

1991

1.612.240

0,20

450.561

47,12

189.866

-7,06 2.252.667

6,28

1992

1.652.685

475.804

5,60

177.995

-6,25 2.306.484

2,39

1993

1.684.614

2,51 1,93

393.720

-17,25

251.477

41,28 2.329.811

1,01

1994

1.673.246

-0,67

509.047

29,29

271.588

8,00 2.453.881

5,33

1995

1.350.476

-19,29

422.300

-17,04

286.800

5,60 2.059.576

-16,07

1996

1.512.131

316.660

-25,02

265.404

-7,46 2.094.195

1,68

1997

1.196.409

11,97 -20,88

365.313

15,36

630.264

137,47 2.191.986

4,67

1998

759.094

-36,55

305.332

-16,42

423.843

-32,75 1.488.269

-32,10

1999

738.893

-2,66

284.782

-6,73

470.258

10,95 1.493.933

0,38

2000

790.573

6,99

234.288

-17,73

665.143

41,44 1.690.004

13,12

2001

813.538

310.949

32,72

600.980

-9,65 1.725.467

2,10

2002

967.160

2,90 18,88

297.685

-4,27

490.509

-18,38 1.755.354

1,73

2003

839.028

-13,25

370.476

24,45

422.414

-13,88 1.631.918

-7,03 25,72

2004

1.028.681

22,60

383.892

3,62

639.071

51,29 2.051.644

2005

1.193.653

16,04

423.421

10,30

624.668

-2,25 2.241.742

9,27

2006

1.028.681

-13,82

383.892

-9,34

639.071

2,31 2.051.644

-8,48

2007

1.326.937

356.504

-7,13

833.933

30,49 2.517.374

22,70

2008

1.382.747

28,99 4,21

368.009

3,23

943.471

13,14 2.694.227

7,03

2009

1.326.937

-4,04

356.504

-3,13

833.933

-11,61 2.517.374

-6,56

2010

1.295.319

-2,38

315.174

-11,59

679.623

-18,50 2.290.116

-9,03

2011

1.366.294

295.635

-6,20

605.958

-10,84 2.267.887

-0,97

2012

1.543.411

5,48 12,96

336.288

13,75

711.988

17,50 2.591.687

14,28

2013

1.561.047

1,14

294.069

-12,55

695.911

-2,26 2.551.026

-1,57

2014

1.516.551

-2,85

354.733

20,63

707.889

1,72 2.579.173

1,10

2015*)

1.573.732

3,77

352.186

-0,72

698.013

-1,40 2.623.931

1,74

2016**)

1.703.594

8,25

360.713

2,42

651.576

-6,65 2.715.883

3,50

176

4761

27::

27: 07:1

16761 2715

7: 1745

+ata-rata Lau Pertum(u!an <>= 14:0-201 7: 14:0-1446 144:-201 Sum#r : #%#ranan :

7:0 274:

Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#(unan, ilah +u*a%in + : +#r'#unan a'$a%

+BN : +#r'#unan B#*ar N#ara +BS : +#r'#unan B#*ar Swa*%a A)A : ahun 2015 &n'a S#m#n%ara AA) : ahun 201 &n'a *%ima*i /uu +ru'*i : ula @alur

6$

PBS


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran  Perkem(an%an Produktiitas Te(u di Indonesia /enurut Status Pen%usa!aan7 14:0-201AA= Ta!un

P+

Pertum( <>=

PB&

Produktiitas = <>= <>=

1980

3,44

1981

3,15

-8,47

5,46

-24,86

6,11

21,26

3,55

-10,86

1982

4,53

43,95

4,23

-22,52

4,21

-31,09

4,48

26,01

1983

3,93

-13,21

5,91

39,79

4,52

7,37

4,21

-5,90

1984

5,90

50,15

3,85

-34,83

4,24

-6,08

5,29

25,63

1985

6,42

8,85

3,61

-6,37

5,45

28,48

5,58

5,43

1986

6,57

2,33

5,00

38,70

5,60

2,64

6,19

10,83

1987

7,23

10,01

4,25

-15,05

6,14

9,71

6,50

5,03

1988

6,18

-14,46

3,68

-13,53

4,84

-21,24

5,48

-15,61

1989

6,49

4,90

3,95

7,53

5,95

22,97

5,89

7,49

1990

6,19

-4,56

4,30

8,75

6,22

4,60

5,82

-1,18

1991

6,30

1,74

4,66

8,48

5,63

-9,55

5,83

0,13

1992

6,31

0,10

4,49

-3,65

4,94

-12,28

5,71

-2,11

1993

6,01

-4,76

3,77

-16,11

6,18

25,23

5,47

-4,11

1994

6,05

0,73

4,73

25,55

6,09

-1,44

5,72

4,57

1995

5,13

-15,17

3,51

-25,73

5,44

-10,69

4,72

-17,47

1996

4,97

-3,09

3,99

13,67

4,20

-22,83

4,69

-0,71

1997

5,48

10,25

4,29

7,48

7,54

79,59

5,67

20,81

1998

3,89

-29,02

3,68

-14,39

4,28

-43,20

3,95

-30,34

1999

4,18

7,43

3,47

-5,64

5,64

31,71

4,37

10,61

2000

4,62

10,40

3,65

5,32

6,32

12,04

4,96

13,64

2001

4,55

-1,47

3,55

-2,93

7,72

22,13

5,01

0,98

2002

4,92

8,22

3,72

4,97

6,61

-14,39

5,00

-0,09

2003

4,88

-0,90

4,25

14,07

5,52

-16,38

4,86

-2,88

2004

5,58

14,44

4,91

15,61

7,76

40,54

5,95

22,41

2005

5,64

1,11

5,27

7,31

6,95

-10,54

5,87

-1,32

2006

4,81

-14,79

4,40

-16,45

6,70

-3,50

5,18

-11,86

2007

5,12

6,41

4,81

9,19

7,72

15,20

5,70

10,19

2008

5,36

4,71

4,83

0,43

8,24

6,71

6,00

5,28

2009

5,12

-4,50

4,81

-0,43

7,72

-6,29

5,70

-5,02

2010

4,69

-8,27

4,63

-3,75

6,17

-20,03

5,04

-11,57

2011

4,81

2,40

4,21

-9,08

5,46

-11,59

4,87

-3,45

2012

5,82

21,05

4,33

2,93

6,70

22,78

5,77

18,51

2013

5,47

-6,00

4,37

0,96

6,32

-5,71

5,47

-5,26

2014

5,23

-4,39

4,58

4,74

6,46

2,17

5,41

-1,11

2015*)

5,72

9,45

4,76

3,89

6,19

-4,09

5,68

5,12

2016**)

6,01

5,01

4,72

-0,72

5,77

-6,78

5,75

1,11

+ata-rata Lau Pertum(u!an <>= 14:0-201 14:0-1446 144:-201 Sum#r : #%#ranan :

5,04

7,26

3,99

272

0704

2761

176

570: 1712

-076 07:5

710 076

27:2 0764

Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#(unan, ilah +u*a%in

+ : +#r'#unan a'$a% +BN : +#r'#unan B#*ar N#ara +BS : +#r'#unan B#*ar Swa*%a A)A AA)

: ahun 2015 &n'a S#m#n%ara : ahun 201 &n'a *%ima*i

/uu +ru'*i : ula @a(lur


65

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 5 Be(era'a Proinsi den%an Luas Panen Te(u
Luas Panen Te(u P+ C PB& C PBS <"a=

Proinsi

1

;awa imur

2012 19.<91

201 211.<98

2015 219.111

201A= 20.729

2

"amun

112.941

115.529

117.45<

121.157

121.4<4

<

;awa #nah

1.85

4.9<2

8.07

4.71

4

;awa Bara%

21.19

21.787

21.917

5

Suma%#ra S#la%an

22.251

21.550



Sulaw#*i S#la%an

12.4<<

7

Suma%#ra =%ara

8 9

S!are S!are kumulatif

201AA= +ata-rata 214.84 209.<

<>=

45,0

<>= 45,0

117.70<

25,<0

70,<

5.<85

5.074

1<,99

84,<5

20.91

20.54

21.<<4

4,59

88,9<

20.8

19.444

20.01

20.798

4,47

9<,40

11.2

10.249

10.011

10.21

10.92<

2,<5

95,75

11.028

9.419

8.40

7.758

8.059

8.945

1,92

97,7

rn%al

7.487

.788

7.<01

8.0<0

8.050

7.5<1

1,2

99,29

DI $a'ar%a

<.285

<.57

<.<<9

<.150

<.15

<.<01

0,71

100,00

449.149

4.41

477.122

41.7<2

471.744

Jumla!

45.278 100,00

Sum#r : Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan, ilah +u*a%in #%#ranan : A) ahun 2015 &n'a S#m#n%ara AA) ahun 201 &n'a *%ima*i

Lam'iran  Be(era'a Proinsi den%an Produksi Te(u
Produksi Te(u P+ C PB& C PBS
Proinsi 2012 1.241.799

201

2015 201A= 201AA= +ata-rata 1.2<.824 1.20.<2 1.<10.89 1.<9.107 1.28<.810 744.911 78.948 754.08 759.9<5 777.11<

49,14 29,09

78,2<

274.94

10,52

88,7

80.709

87.211

<,<4

92,10

85.29

88.811

89.59

<,4<

95,5<

2.<<

<1.12

<2.217

<1.00

1,19

9,72

<7.<40

<2.427

29.70

<0.597

<4.<15

1,<1

98,0<

<1.849

27.92

<8.025

4.<08

45.1<2

<7.848

1,45

99,48

15.848

15.87

11.87<

12.20<

12.24

1<.07

0,52

100,00

2.591.82

2.551.02

;awa imur

2

"amun

754.19

<

;awa #nah

289.775

270.87<

22.05

272.075

279.952

4

;awa Bara%

102.48

92.0<

78.195

82.442

5

Suma%#ra S#la%an

79.924

9<.882

100.<84



Sulaw#*i S#la%an

<<.715

<1.<40

7

Suma%#ra =%ara

41.505

8

rn%al

9

DI $a'ar%a

2.579.17< 2.2<.9<1 2.715.884 2.12.<<9 100,00

Sum#r : Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan, ilah +u*a%in #%#ranan : A) ahun 2015 &n'a S#m#n%ara

AA) ahun 201 &n'a *%ima*i /uu +ru'*i : ula @alur

66

<>=

<>= 49,14

1

Jumla!

S!are S!are kumulatif


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 

Ka(u'aten Sentra Produksi Te(u di Ja8a Timur7 2015 Produksi
&o

Ka(?Kota

S!are P+

1 2 < 4 5

a. !alan a. #iri a. "umaan a. ;man a. !'#r% "ainn$a

27<.540 1.2<7 7<.920 57.749 54.<42 501.05

PB&

PBS

49.58 47.80 <4.<8

Total

2.1<

Ja8a Timur 112: 111 Sum#r : Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan, ilah +u*a%in

21

27<.540 215.805 121.00 57.749 54.<42 5<7.59

S!are Kumulatif

<>=

<>=

21,70 17,12 9,5 4,58 4,<1 42,4

21,70 <8,82 48,4 5<,04 57,< 100,00

1202 100700

/uu +ru'*i : ula @alur

Lam'iran 6

Ka(u'aten Sentra Produksi Te(u di Lam'un%7 2015 Produksi
&o

Ka(?Kota

S!are P+

1 2 < 4 5

a. "amun #nah a. ulan Bawan a. "amun =%ara a. /a$ anan a. ulan Bawan Bara%

20.217 <.11< 1.950 2.172 595

PB&

PBS

Total

7<.79 -

<19.95 251.849 5.408 -

Lam'un% 6056 664 Sum#r : Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan, ilah +u*a%in

2:222

<40.182 254.92 90.29 82.580 595

S!are Kumulatif

<>=

<>=

44,24 <<,1 11,79 10,74 0,08

44,24 77,40 89,18 99,92 100,00

6:45: 100700


Lam'iran :

Ka(u'aten Sentra Produksi Te(u di Ja8a Ten%a!7 2015 Produksi
&o

Ka(?Kota

S!are P+

1 2 < 4 5

a. +a%i a. Sra#n a. #man a. #al a. Blra "ainn$a

Ja8a Ten%a!

51.972 <.5 25.429 19.104 14.<7 102.95<

201

PB&

PBS

-

Total

9.74

27 <2

-

1.498

16

95 -

4:51

1.718 <.59< 25.429 19.1< 14.7<2 104.448

<>=

S!are Kumulatif <>=

2<,55 1<,9 9,70 7,<0 5,2 <9,8

2<,55 <7,52 47,22 54,52 0,14 100,00

220 100700

Sum#r : Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan, ilah +u*a%in /uu +ru'*i : ula @alur


67

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 4

Ka(u'aten Sentra Produksi Te(u di Ja8a Barat7 2015 Produksi
&o

Ka(?Kota

S!are P+

1 2 < 4 5 

PB&

29.914 550

a(. Mir#(n

a. Suan a. !aal#n'a a. Inrama$u a. uninan a. Sum#an

<.244

2.

15.58 10.47 10.80 -

1.188

Total -

-

<.775

PBS

-

Ja8a Barat 516 :4 Sum#r : Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan, ilah +u*a%in

<>=

29.914 1.1< 1<.711 1<.472

<.775 1.188

-

S!are Kumulatif

<>=

<8,2 20,4 17,5< 17,2< 4,8< 1,52

<8,2 58,89 7,4< 9<,5 98,48 100,00

6:14 100700


Lam'iran 10 Ka(u'aten Sentra Produksi Te(u di Sumatera Selatan7 2015 &o

Produksi
Ka(?Kota P+

1 2

a. 6an Ilir a. 6= imur Sumatera Selatan

PB&

S!are

PBS

874 <10

4.928

11:5

542:

-

<>=

Total

<4.272

5.802

5262

<4.582

5,55 <4,45

S!are Kumulatif

<>= 5,55 100,00

100:5 100700

Sum(#r : Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#(unan, ilah +u*a%in


Lam'iran 11 Perkem(an%an "ar%a *ula di Pasar Dalam &e%eri7 1446-2015 Tahun

Harga Bulanan (Rp./Kg) Jan

Feb

Mar

April

Mei

Juni

Juli

Agus

Sept

Ot!

Pertumb. "!#

$es

Rata%rata

(&)

1997

1.513

1.506

1.513

1.513

1.547

1.538

1.538

1.538

1.547

1.513

1.513

1.525

1.525

1998

1.763

1.756

1.638

2.100

2.238

2.316

2.788

3.731

3.938

3.669

3.406

3.500

2.737

79,43

1999

3.500

338

2.875

2.397

2.397

2.638

2.269

2.263

2.438

2.390

2.400

2.722

2 .386

-12,84

2000

2.616

2.494

2.431

2.510

2.497

2.789

3.235

3.410

3.413

3.366

3.566

3.545

2.989

25,31

2001

3.600

3.628

3.712

3.790

3.926

4.069

3.823

3.576

3.572

3.875

3.656

3.719

3.745

25,29

2002

3.857

3.784

3.632

3.494

3.263

3.206

3.222

3.241

3.313

3.456

3.913

3.966

3.529

-5,78

2003

3.963

4.269

4.242

4.945

4.544

4.902

4.282

4.059

4.131

4.138

4.175

4.038

4.307

22,06

2004

3.941

3.963

3.944

4.025

4.063

4.066

4.065

4.088

4.081

4.094

4.246

4.797

4.114

-4,48

2005

5.163

5.338

5.513

5.406

5.306

5.122

5.313

5.502

5.806

5.969

5.788

5.650

5.490

33,43

2006

5.663

6.147

6.019

6.122

6.028

5.625

5.988

5.964

5.927

5.974

5.988

6.314

5.980

8,93

2007

6.431

6.450

6.450

6.494

6.553

6.550

6.269

6.225

6.250

6.218

6.125

6.088

6.342

6,05

2008

6.300

6.413

6.241

6.199

6.198

6.135

6.178

6.054

6.096

6.239

6.118

6.118

6.191

-2,38

7.336

9.364

9.213

9.843

8.205

32,53

10.479

10.725

10.532

10.502

28,00

6.194

7.744

7.900

7.993

8.086

8.675

9.436

2010

10.776

11.004

10.861 10.861

10.486

10.148

9.921

10.014

10.221

2011

10.738

10.531

10.481 10.481

9.713

9.444

9.713

9.931

9.899

9.638

9.738

9.825

10.011

-4,68

2012

10.118

10.313

10.563 11.575

1 1. 725

1 2. 57 5

1 2. 16 3

1 2. 13 8

11.838

11.625

11.763

11.763

11.513

15,01

2013

12.052

11.890

11.817 11.673

1 1. 985

1 2. 15 5

1 2. 26 4

1 2. 10 3

11.962

11.890

11.716

11.565

11.923

3,56

2014

11.442

11.234

11.177 10.976

1 0. 809

1 0. 76 3

1 0. 58 6

1 0. 67 9

10.671

10.527

10.444

10.995

10.859

- 8,92

2009

6.675

-

Rata%rata Pertumbuhan Sum#r : Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan

6%


''*

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 12 Perkem(an%an Konsumsi *ula di Indonesia7 2002-201 Konsumsi

Ta!un 2002 200< 2004 2005 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201< 2014 2015

1,75 1,7<9 1,712 1,704 1,541 1,54 1,17 1,51 1,475 1,41 1,242 1,275 1,229

9,20< 9,08 8,927 8,885 8,0<5 8,24 8,4<2 7,905 7,91 7,<8< ,47 ,48 ,409

1,<05

,805

+ata-rata 1715 Sum#r: B+S, ilah +u*a%in

67:42

Pertum(u!an <>= -1,47 -1,55 -0,47 -9,57 7,<< -2,24 -,25 -2,70 -4,00 -12,29

2, -<,59 ,17 -271


69

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 1 Perkem(an%an 3olume7 &ilai dan &era9a Eks'or dan Im'or /olase Indonesia7 14:0-201 Ta!un 1980 1981 1982 198< 1984 1985 198 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199< 1994 1995 199 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200< 2004 2005 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201< 2014 2015

Eks'or 3olume Pertum( &ilai Pertum( <>= <>=
-,2 14,22 79,4 <4,75 11,49 -1,44 2<,87 <,19 -29,<0 -14,18 <9,14 -<7,94 4<, 42,14 1,<2 -45,< -57,58 78,81 -49,<1 ,4 -2,4 -<1,9< <9,<7 -<4,71 140,0< 1,58 142,98 -5,08 80,10 -47,52 -5,5< 12,74 -2,59 <8,51 141,85 22,71

22.90 20.<75 1<.922 2<.045 2.912 22.<41 <9.759 <.817 27.20< 19.819 <2.992 22.495 48.80 <<.19 4.<<5 <<.4<< 17.80< 20.018 9.070 .2< 5.<4< 5.594 7.822 4.29 11.144 19.<99 49.479 47.75 72.445 1.809 8.<48 1.405 44.849 .421 111.874 82.172

41,21 -11,05 -<1,7 5,5< 1,78 -1,98 77,9 -7,40 -2,11 -27,14 ,47 -<1,82 11,9 -<1,98 <9,58 -27,85 -4,75 12,44 -54,9 -2,98 -19,<< 4,70 <9,8< -45,42 11,04 74,08 155,0 -<,5 51,9 -14,8 10,58 -10,1 -2,9 48,10 149,45 2<,71

Im'or &era9a 3olume Pertum( &ilai Pertum( &ilai <>= <>=
+ata-rata Lau Pertum(u!an <>= 14:0-201 170: 1470 14:0-1446 471 4740 144:-201 2701 2:760 Sum#r : Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan, ilah +u*a%in # @S : 170<101000, 170<109000, 170<901000, 170<909000

70


72: 127 2741

1107 211766 4754

OUTLOOK K O.ODITI T EBU

201$

Lam'iran 15 Perkem(an%an 3olume dan &ilai Im'or *ula Indonesia7 14:0-201 Im'or *ula "a(lur Ta!un

3olume

1980 1981 1982 198< 1984 1985 198 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199< 1994 1995 199 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200< 2004 2005 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201< 2014 2015

Pertum( &ilai Pertum( <>= <>= <000 US= <5,87 1<.21 25,42 79,82 705.58 <<2,<0 -4,9 420.72 -40,<8 -75,54 1<<.255 -8,<2 -98,<1 2.<0 -98,27 52,88 <.<12 4<,< 1.7<4,1 1.<87 <94,78 2,44 25.57 5,57 0,<9 <5.059 <,4 149,87 112.120 219,80 -1<,7 12<.<50 10,02 -7<,7 2.77 -78,<7 297,8 98.9<5 270,8 -42,91 52.114 -47,<< -90,95 5.88 -88,74 <.479,27 2<7.055 <.9<9,79 101,97 4<.578 95,5 -47,42 2<1.702 -50,02 4,1 <10.995 <4,22 5,59 <4.452 11,40 9,98 278.05 -19,58 -1,51 2<7.4< -14,77 -24,41 198.<8 -1,<5 2,71 215.777 8,< 12,29 22.81< 21,80 7,8 585.2< 122,9 -29,01 5<7.1<0 -8,22 111,44 1.040.194 9<, -,90 <52.<85 -,12 <9,0 57.0<4 0,91 0,5 80<.11< 41,< 71,52 1.<8.728 104,05 1,78 1.<4.804 -0,24 20,77 1.7<0.57 5,8 7,10 1.<28.928 -18,71 -21,15 1.079.790 -<7,1

+ata-rata Lau Pertum(u!an <>= 14:0-201 1704

1574

14:0-1446

0:720

26722

144:-201

16746

1674

Sum#r : Dir#'%ra% ;#n#ral +#r'#unan, ilah +u*a%in # @S : 17011<0000, 1701140000, 1701910000, 1701991900 # @S : 1701991100, 1701999000


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 1 Perkem(an%an Luas Panen7 Produksi dan Produktiitas Te(u di &e%ara-ne%ara )n%%ota )SE)&7 14:0-201 Ta!un 1980 1981 1982 198< 1984 1985 198 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199< 1994 1995 199 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200< 2004 2005 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201<

Luas Panen Pertum( Produktiitas <"a= <>=
+ata-rata Lau Pertum(u!an <>= 14:0-201 14:0-1446 144:-201 Sum#r :

Pertum( <>= 10,05 8,<1 -7,<1 4,77 -<,4< 1,50 1,79 0,00 17,4 -11,< -2,52 7,19 -1,2< ,95 1,10 5,7< 4,5 -18,75 10,70 ,25 -1,10 ,<1 9,14 -2,01 -11,94 0,28 9,57 9,50 -<,95 -7,0< 10,<4 <,9< -<,0

Produksi Pertum( = 5.080.2<4 5.52.242 11,2 7.427.40 <1,41 .85.<74 -7,9 .944.055 1,28 .08.1<1 -4,84 .522.114 -1,<0 .414.917 -1,4 .57.995 2,<9 8.<92.908 27,78 7.854.795 -,41 8.50<.759 8,2 10.002.974 17,< 8.94.500 -10,5 8.807.205 -1,5 9.85.5<8 9,97 10.894.100 12,48 11.085.570 1,7 9.018.014 -18,5 10.077.2<4 11,75 10.707.<7 ,2 10.4<1.85 -2,58 11.75<.425 12,7 1<.<75.80 1<,80 1<.00<.020 -2,79 10.994.81 -15,44 10.950.58< -0,40 12.548.214 14,59 14.012.445 11,7 12.887.559 -8,0< 11.922.80 -7,49 15.490.129 29,92 1.<8.900 5,7 1.<78.700 0,0

274 7

1751 17:

572: 71

17:0

1715

714

>&6, ilah +u*a%in

N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N : Brun#i Daru**alam, ama, Inn#*ia, "a*, !ala$*ia N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N : !$anmar, >iliina, Sinaura, hailan, ?i#%nam /uu +ru'*i : ula @alur

72



201$

Lam'iran 1 Sentra Luas Panen Te(u &e%ara-ne%ara )n%%ota )SE)&7 2004-201 &o

&e%ara

1

hailan

932.465

977.956

1.259.240

1.282.082

1. 321.595

+ata-rata <2010-201= 1.210.218

2

Inn#*ia

422.953

432.715

450.833

449.148

466.641

449.8<4

17,51

4,<

<

>iliina

404.000

354.878

439.698

433.301

437.070

41.2<7

1,20

80,8<

4

?i#%nam

265.600

269.100

282.254

301.618

310.264

290.809

11,<2

92,15

5

!$anmar

157.687

150.021

153.283

152.000

167.200

155.2

,0

98,21



ama

13.533

17.072

22.069

27.859

28.500

2<.875

0,9<

99,14

7

"a*

13.830

15.355

24.765

20.490

14.270

18.720

0,7<

99,87

8

!ala$*ia

8.000

4.540

4.099

4.346

238

<.<0

0,1<

100,00

221:0:

22216

2251

2:2

100700

2004

Total

2010

Luas Panen <"a= 2011

2012

260:55

201

26566:

S!are <>= 47,12

Kumulatif <>=

S!are 47,12

Sum#r : >&6, ilah +u*a%in N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N : Brun#i Daru**alam, ama, Inn#*ia, "a*, !ala$*ia, !$anmar, >iliina, Sinaura, hailan, ?i#%nam

Lam'iran 16 Sentra Produksi Te(u &e%ara-ne%ara )n%%ota )SE)&7 2004-201 &o

&e%ara

1

hailan

66. 816. 446

68.807.800

95.950.416

98.400.000

100.096.000

+ata-rata <2004-201= 8.014.1<2

2

>iliina

32. 500. 000

28.000.000

30.000.000

32.000.000

31.874.000

<0.874.800

17,77

7,28

<

Inn#*ia

26. 400. 000

26.600.000

24.000.000

28.700.000

33.700.000

27.880.000

1,05

8<,<<

4

?i#%nam

15. 608. 300

16.161.700

17.539.572

19.040.799

20.131.089

17.9.292

10,19

9<,52

5

!$anmar

9.715.425

9.397.881

9.690.479

9.700.000

9.650.000

9.<0.757

5,54

99,0



"a*

433.500

818.675

1.222.000

1.055.675

1.180.000

941.970

0,54

99,0

7

ama

350.155

365.555

468.738

573.771

600.000

471.44

0,27

99,87

8

!ala$*ia

350.000

200.700

194.084

146.164

213.978

220.985

0,1<

100,00

1216:2

10211

16402:4

1:41504

1465506

1660:0

100700

Total

2004

2010

Produksi
2012

201

S!are <>= 49,51

Kumulatif <>=

S!are 49,51

Sum#r : >&6, ilah +u*a%in /uu +ru'*i : #u N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N : Brun#i Daru**alam, ama, Inn#*ia, "a*, !ala$*ia, !$anmar, >iliina, Sinaura, hailan, ?i#%nam


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 1: &e%ara-ne%ara den%an Produktiitas Te(u Ter(esar di )SE)&7 2004-201 &o

Produktiitas
&e%ara 2004

2010

2011

2012

201

+ata-rata 49,47

1

!ala$*ia

4,90

9,86

11,47

11,04

210,08

2

hailan

7,71

7,08

7,67

7,98

7,58

7,1

<

Inn#*ia

5,41

5,24

5,75

5,68

5,53

5,52

4

>Iliina

5,47

4,84

5,91

5,62

5,52

5,47

5

?i#% Nam

5,68

5,29

4,64

5,42

5,69

5,<4



ama

0,80

0,59

0,48

0,41

0,42

0,54

7

"a*

0,22

0,55

0,37

0,49

0,74

0,47

8

!$anmar

0,13

0,14

0,15

0,15

0,14

0,14

Sum#r : >&6, ilah +u*a%in /uu +ru'*i : ula !#n%ah N#ara &S&N : Brun#i Daru**alam, ama, Inn#*ia, "a*, !ala$*ia, >iliina, Sinaura, hailan, N#ara &S&N : ?i#%nam, !$anmar.

7$



201$

Lam'iran 14 Perkem(an%an Luas Panen7 Produksi dan Produktiitas Te(u Dunia7 14:0-201 Ta!un 1980 1981 1982 198< 1984 1985 198 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199< 1994 1995 199 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200< 2004 2005 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201<

Luas Panen Pertum( Produktiitas <"a= <>=
Pertum( <>= , -0,24 -,87 0,55 -<,<5 <,85 -2,1 1,54 0,89 1,24 -2,25 0,40 -1,42 -2,57 <,90 1,55 1,84 1,72 <,74 -2,25 0,08 5,89 0,7 -0,7 -0,9 2,24 -0,89 -7,10 -,9< 4,0 1,88 2,97 -<,21

Produksi Pertum( <>=
+ata-rata Lau Pertum(u!an <>= 14:0-201 2721 14:0-1446 272

071 0721

276 275:

144:-201

0704

2725

271

Sum#r : >&6, ilah +u*a%in /uu +ru'*i : ula @alur


75

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 20 &e%ara-ne%ara den%an Luas Panen Te(u Ter(esar di Dunia7 2004-201 &o

&e%ara

1

Bra*il

8 .617. 55 5

9. 07 6. 706

9. 60 1. 316

9. 705 .38 8

10 .19 5. 166

+ata-rata <2004-201= 9.4<9.22

2

Inia

4.415. 400

4. 174.600

4. 944.390

5.090.000

5.060.000

4.7<.878

18,81

5,29

<

Mhina

1.697. 470

1. 686.000

1. 721.200

1.794.520

1.816.490

1.74<.1<

,92

<,21

4

hailan

932.465

977.956

1.259.240

1.282.082

1.321.595

1.154.8

4,58

7,79

5

+a'i*%an

1.029.400

942.800

987.700

1.046.000

1.128.800

1.02.940

4,08

71,87



!#'*i'

710.585

703.943

713.824

735.127

782.801

729.25

2,90

74,77

7

Inn#*ia

441.440

436.600

435.000

442.658

470.941

445.<28

1,77

7,54

8

ua

434.700

431.400

506.100

361.300

403.000

427.<00

1,70

78,2<

2004

2010

Luas Panen <"a= 2011

2012

201

S!are <>= <7,48

S!are Kumulatif <>=

<7,48

9

>iliina

404.000

354.878

439.698

433.301

437.070

41<.789

1,4

79,88

10

lmia

379.505

348.531

381.961

396.532

405.737

<82.45<

1,52

81,<9

11

&r#n%ina

345.000

350.000

350.000

360.000

370.000

<55.000

1,41

82,80

12

&m#ri'a S#ri'a%

353.659

355.112

353.129

365.190

368.590

<59.1<

1,4<

84,2<

1<

&u*%ralia

391.291

405.000

308.104

338.626

329.303

<54.45

1,41

85,4

14

&3r i' a S# la %a n

311.000

267.000

272.000

320.000

325.000

299.000

1,19

8,82

15

?i#%nam

265.600

269.100

282.254

301.618

310.264

285.77

1,1<

87,9 100,00

"ainn$a

Total

2.985.940

2.942.891

<.018.22

<.04.198

<.150.<95

<.0<2.409

12,04

261010

262216

265:

2050

2:612

21:561

100700

Sum#r : >&6, ilah +u*a%in

Lam'iran 21 &e%ara-ne%ara den%an Produksi Te(u Ter(esar di Dunia7 2004-201 &o 1 2 < 4 5  7 8 9 10 11 12 1< 14 15

&e%ara

Produksi
Total

2011 7<4.00.059 <42.<82.000 114.4<5.000 95.950.41 55.<08.500 49.7<5.27< <4.889.7< <0.000.000 25.181.814 24.000.000 2.55.810 20.58.052 19.80.890 17.5<9.572 1.800.000

2012 721.077.287 <1.0<7.000 12<.40.500 98.400.000 58.<97.000 50.94.48< <<.<<.50 <2.000.000 25.957.09< 28.700.000 29.2<5.877 2<.5<.028 19.7.<87 19.040.799 17.278.000

201 78.090.444 <41.200.000 128.200.908 100.09.000 <.749.900 1.182.077 <4.87.<<2 <1.874.000 27.1<.082 <<.700.000 27.905.94< 2.<<4.7 2<.700.000 20.1<1.089 18.000.000

72.448.74 <24.<89.980 118.494.42< 8.014.1<2 55.<74.740 52.<55.29 <4.25.91< <0.874.800 28.00<.198 27.880.000 27.245.1<1 22.882.52 21.824.<1 17.9.292 17.<49.7<9

<>= 40,7 18,1 ,< 4,82 <,10 2,9< 1,94 1,7< 1,57 1,5 1,5< 1,28 1,22 0,99 0,97

192.250.052 1:60624

18.87<.544 14:::51

19<.522.247 1:006440

19.222.420 1::55

205.002.<<4 141116466

194.774.119 16:2512

10,90 100700

Sum#r : >&6, ilah +u*a%in /uu +ru'*i : #u

76

S!are

2010 717.4<.79< 292.<01.00 110.789.000 8.807.800 49.<72.900 50.421.19 <<.<00.000 28.000.000 <1.457.000 2.00.000 24.820.574 22.<1<.829 18.889.877 1.11.700 1.015.05

Bra*il Inia Mhina hailan +a'i*%an !#'*i' lmia >iliina &u*%ralia Inn#*ia &m#ri'a S#ri'a% ua%#mala &r#n%ina ?i#%nam &3ri'a S#la%an "ainn$a

+ata-rata

2004 91.0.147 285.029.<00 115.58.70 .81.44 50.045.400 49.492.95 <.700.000 <2.500.000 <0.284.000 2.400.000 27.07.450 21.525.84 2.90.000 15.08.<00 18.55.089


S!are Kumulatif <>=

40,7 58,8< 5,4 70,28 7<,<8 7,<1 78,25 79,98 81,54 8<,11 84,< 85,91 87,1< 88,12 89,10 100,00


201$

Lam'iran 22 Perkem(an%an 3olume dan &ilai Eks'or dan Im'or Te(u )SE)&7 14:0 - 2012 Ta!un

3olume
Eks'or Pertum( &ilai Pertum( <>= <000 US= <>= -12,1 702.52 57,5< -0,09 850.241 21,02 55,50 901.754 ,0 -<1,45 500.98 -44,44 2,40 492.78 -1,4 -4,04 <5<.879 -28,19 -11,< <17.90 -10,15 7,05 <5.851 15,0 -11,78 <97.81 8,70 51,88 71.787 80,24 -27,9 597.5< -1,2 10,9 48<.81< -19,05 22,78 55<.917 14,49 -24,94 41.20 -1, <,5 549.891 19,12 42,7< 905.54< 4,8 10,7 92.20 2,28 -19,10 7<.02 -27,<4 -42,01 427.759 -<,44 <8,<1 <<.<85 -15,05 15,21 <88.098 ,80 -,87 479.48 2<,55 -5,99 <<9.442 -29,21 2,<1 494.22 45,0 -9,<5 417.152 -15,59 -2,90 401.202 -<,82 -18,8< 42.22 15,21 0,0 14.477 <2,94 <,<< 845.045 <7,52 -18,42 851.140 0,72 -1,55 919.815 8,07 117,08 2.4.15 18,1 4,9< 2.728.201 10,1 -22,92 1.788.089 -<4,4

1980 1981 1982 198< 1984 1985 198 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199< 1994 1995 199 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200< 2004 2005 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201< +ata-rata Lau Pertum(u!an <>= 14:0-201 765 14:0-1446 70

144:-201

:71

4744 74 1751

3olume
Im'or Pertum( &ilai Pertum( <>= <000 US= <>= -0,1 2<.58< 2,75 ,85 294.1 24,<4 -18,19 18.150 -<,72 <4,07 214.777 15,<8 -4,<9 202.059 -5,92 -0,7 150.112 -25,71 10,7 11.529 7,1 0,12 1.08< 2,82 14,90 21<.002 28,25 5,95 241.780 1<,51 4,57 282.9<5 17,02 11,9 289.12 2,< 0,05 29.9 -,89 -0,47 28<.5<1 5,14 17,17 <4.559 28,58 <7,17 599.9<2 4,5 44,9 799.40< <<,25 -22,80 58.725 -17,0 -19,0 41.5<2 -<,77 <,25 481.791 15,7 10,57 4.7 -<,12 7,54 5<5.090 14,4 -17,0 411.904 -2<,02 4,91 4<1.220 4,9 -17,4< <52.451 -18,27 2<,<0 55<.997 57,18 -2,8 717.1< 29,45 58,07 1.082.811 50,99 -4,70 555.47 -48,70 52,41 1.128.110 10<,09 5,75 1.5<4.44 <,04 <,84 2.598.905 9,<5 9,12 2.70.<92 2,75 10,2< 2.58<.<<1 -<,2 :72 67:5 470

1276 47:2 176

Sum#r : >&6, ilah +u*a%in N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N : Brun#i Daru**alam, ama, Inn#*ia, "a*, !ala$*ia N#ara-n#ara &n%a &S&N : !$anmar, >iliina, Sinaura, hailan, ?i#%nam


2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 2 Perkem(an%an 3olume dan &ilai Eks'or dan Im'or Te(u Dunia7 14:0 @ 201 Ta!un 1980 1981 1982 198< 1984 1985 198 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199< 1994 1995 199 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200< 2004 2005 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201<

3olume
Eks'or Pertum( &ilai <>= <000 US= 9.<9.208 2,<2 9.22.58 8,4 8.01.95 -8,2 7.7<7.<< -2,2< 7.4<7.18 -1,41 .87.7 -5,02 7.02.<<5 1,1< .4<4.595 ,18 .844.982 0,42 7.245.109 -<,4< 7.941.772 1,51 5.7<9.141 -<,71 4.429.89 -9,48 4.144.008 <,98 4.7<2.5<8 2<,2< .4<.598 9,7< .878.207 -2,24 .<02.<7 -4,75 5.977.405 14,07 5.01.59 -8,78 4.172.912 7,70 5.<20.158 0,41 4.<00.400 -<,47 4.7<.171 ,18 4.877.825 4,< .08.110 8,1< 8.824.7< 4,8 8.058.<41 -0,51 8.28.589 11,84 11.078.90 10,42 15.754.2<0 -0,11 19.5<1.979 <,15 18.94.<2< 10,44 17.088.925

Pertum( <>= -<,91 -12,9 -4,0< -<,88 -7,54 2,18 -8,42 ,<8 5,85 9,2 -27,7< -22,82 -,45 14,20 <,58 ,41 -8,<7 -5,1 -1,07 -1,82 27,49 -19,17 8,7 4,<8 24,40 45,4< -8,8 7,08 28,40 42,20 2<,98 20,2 -12,51

3olume
Im'or Pertum( &ilai <>= <000 US= 10.91.747 1,5 10.278.78 ,1< 8.4<8.<44 -8,1 7.9<0.854 2,52 8.2.794 -4,28 7.217.7< -<,5< 7.775.580 1,89 8.215.579 2,00 8.859.97 0,22 9.014.815 -5,51 10.258.081 -<,24 7.<27.904 4,9 5.500.078 -9,52 5.015.585 0,90 5.<2<.1<9 1<,7< .954.41< 1,0 7.57.19< -0,50 7.08<.<< -0,99 .49<.152 11,2< 5.728.874 -5,15 4.9.<98 9,50 .184.917 -4,< 5.259.79< 2,1 5.729.895 -0,95 5.95.840 1<,17 7.842.24 -0,7 10.<24.7<5 11,79 10.059.502 -10,54 10.07<.70 8,4 12.075.91 10,7 1.<55.1<4 9,1< 22.71.505 <,92 19.4<2.159 ,82 18.<1.428

Pertum( <>= -,2< -17,91 -,01 4,24 -12,9 7,7< 5, 7,84 1,75 1<,79 -28,5 -24,94 -8,81 ,1< <0,4 8,94 -,50 -8,<< -11,77 -1<,<1 24,54 -14,9 8,94 <,9 <1, <1,5 -2,57 0,14 19,87 <5,44 <9,17 18,81 -19,<<

+ata-rata Lau Pertum(u!an <>= 14:0-201 14:0-1446

27: 172

741 -175

2752 0740

71 -1756

144:-201

5700

472

5705

:744

Sum#r : >&6, ilah +u*a%in

7%


201$


Lam'iran 25 Perkem(an%an Ketersediaan Te(u di )SE)&7 14:0 @ 201 Ta!un

1980 1981 1982 198< 1984 1985 198 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199< 1994 1995 199 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200< 2004 2005 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201<

Produksi
Eks'or
Im'or
Ketersediaan
Pertum( <>= 1,8 11,98 12,98 0,05 -4,2 4,52 -4,45 9,89 1,7 <,97 8,0 1<,48 -4,5 -0,25 5,8 19,91 2,28 -12,74 11,58 5,<0 0,72 9,41 9,87 -<,98 -7,29 2,0< 17,27 -7,7 <,< -2,78 1,75 24,78 17,8

+ata-rata Lau Pertum(u!an <>= 14:0-201 14:0-1446 144:-201 Sum#r

746> 72> 724>

: >&6, ilah +u*a%in

/uu +ru'*i : ula !#n%ah

N#ara &S&N N#ara &S&N

: Brun#i Daru**alam, ama, Inn#*ia, "a*, !ala$*ia, : >iliina, Sinaura, hailan, ?i#%nam, !$anmar.


79

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 2 Perkem(an%an Ketersediaan Te(u di Dunia7 14:0 @ 201 Ta!un 1980 1981 1982 198< 1984 1985 198 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199< 1994 1995 199 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200< 2004 2005 200 2007 2008

2009 2010 2011 2012 201<

Produksi
Eks'or
+ata-rata Lau Pertum(u!an <>= 14:0-201 14:0-1446 144:-201 Sum#r : >&6, ilah +u*a%in /uu +ru'*i : ula !#n%ah

%0


Im'or
Ketersediaan
Pertum( <>= 9,9 9,27 -4,84 <,10 -1,95 <,<0 0,97 1,<5 1,7 4,22 1,05 <,82 -,10 -1,<1 8,<1 7,05 1,51 2,50 2,9 -0,5 1,40 8,71 2,88 -<,5< -1,47 5,<1 10,<2 -<,07 -9,14 4,0< 11,89 15,50 4,02 27:1> 2752> 721>

201$


Lam'iran 2 Ta(el In'ut Out'ut Transaksi Total )tas Dasar "ar%a Produsen7 200 D

K T

c

e r

u  a

)

a l ( # a

B

O

a

r

u D

O

k

k D

l

k a

b u

a a ! n

l a

a I n k

a a n n

n M a a $ & n n

-" ! B " a a % u a ( n '

K n e

u D " D* a u

a ( u ! u r D &

a a r #

a r a a a

$ D &

) n n 25

,- Persen (&)

1,

n n $ u 50



Rp.

e

n a a

n - a u r

+ula

e

! D a % a n '

# l " e D $ n u )

Satuan

M

a

n a l a  # $ k a $ "

SEKTOR

a

T

e

I

a

e

n - n n n

O % l '

r % $ #

a e ! &

n $

a a

) n

51

.0'

I n

52

,

-0

'.,0,.

,.0-

n n 53

54

 10*



(.*

Lam'iran 2 <&an'utan = M B

T a e $

+ula

Satuan

,- Persen (&) Rp.

k

"

$

# k

e +

a r

e +

+ $

 e n n $ $

/ n

#



+ a

u $

u n

& D n

$ D n

u

$ #

n )

n (

$ a (

e a (

l

a a

) a 58

' '.1

#

M

- K B u $ /

/ r

) u SEKTOR



B

"

u e $ n . & $

,

T T e e

a

$

, n a 59

' -.,

, n a 60

a 61

n n 62

63

***

'

*'

',0

'.-'2.1-

--.0*

''-.0*

1.0

usat !ata dan Sistem In"ormasi ertanian 81

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 2 <&an'utan = K



e

K D

*

 a

T



k

 b k a

/ n $

e !

e n

a n

l n a ) &

K  u $ /

O l

)  K  l e

l



+ula

Rp.

T e

a

a a 

a n

r

$ #

!

# ! e

n n

n

a l

n a

a

$ a l

a (

a

) n

Satuan

,- Persen (&)

a

M  a a k $

D u

n a SEKTOR

a

n

64

65

*)-0

)' -.12(

'.',.-1

l n e

n a

66

k

67

68

2

,1*

'2

-.'*,

'.12*.*0,

12-.2'

69

)/

'*.22/

Lam'iran 2 <&an'utan = K

e M B

B

$

e r

n r u a

T

l a k n !

e *O b l

.

D 



a

a



a u

u

M a $ l n k

e

$ 

!

k

!

k

#

/

/

a 

a 

a

a



a u

u

u

n

k

l

k

70

71

)1,

*)-*

1

0.--

'.'*1.21

,.

Rp.

a

T

Satuan

,- Persen (&)

u

* a $ l

* !

n l

+ula

$

*

u 

SEKTOR

K c

r k

72

k

73

94



0

'(.0(2

',.*0

95

)

11

Lam'iran 2 <&an'utan = B O

a

b 1 e

#

+ula

,- Persen (&) Rp.

%2

 e

K

b * u b n B e

B  a B # r a *

a n

$

#

a



a r e

a $ n

$

&

a

D ! #

n a &

n * n

3

a

*

a a $

) n $

) $ (

n

a Satuan

" a

O b

&

SEKTOR

r

a &

a r

u

96

99

)

)-,

*

*,.0

n n ! 100

)  a a r K $

B

- ) k

-

101

102

*-

-



''.2

.1,2

1*


a a 103

)'

'.1*

201$


Lam'iran 2 <&an'utan = % n )

SEKTOR

+ula



K

k

"



.

e r

%

e r

u &

u % n

K e e *

e # &

!  &

n ) k

e & a

a n

n ) ) a k $ D

# e !

 

 e

 u

a r

a l

a & %

a a

# a a n

# a a n

# a / a n $

# u a &

Satuan

,- Persen (&) Rp.

150

/)1

'.**.--1

151

 

152

-)'

,'.-

 u

a

,

a & &

# a a a a n n u

''0.*

# a a a n !

155

*

'1.0-

 a n

a & D n

154

e r $

166

'

-./,-

*'

''-.10

Lam'iran 2 <&an'utan =  e * e r $  n a & $  a n a ! n # a ( a n a SEKTOR

+ula

,-

Satuan

167

Persen (&)

'-

Rp.

-,.-

r  u e * n a ) k ! e  l n & u # a a u n r * ) a # ) n $ a

.

e

 a # a

K e # e ! a & a n

" ' a # & a 169

*1 '',.0*

 a # a

k K e r  e b $ u a b #  u $ a r ( a D a n a a , n n 172

 0.,21

 e r   $ % u n n * & & l a a a a r ! n a 180

301

,20 '.1-*.,,

*'-

''.-*-./,'


83

2016

OUTLOOK T EBU

Lam'iran 2 <&an'utan =

 e r u b a ! a n SEKTOR

+ula

,-

 b k # /  r

# &  k

Satuan

a r a n )

304

Persen (&) Rp.

/ e  e r

 a  a n ) a n

 n u & a * a k l ! ! a a $ ! n r

305

$

+ u * l a !

I * /  r

/ e r * $ n & a a n

b a a r n a ) n a ) n

309

310

401

**

'-

*1-

'

-*

'-.220

-2.,

''.,*1.*'2

-'.20.20*

2.-1.

Lam'iran 2 <&an'utan =

 a + a k SEKTOR

+ula

,-

Satuan

Persen (&) Rp.

<=

 a )

 e n + u a l a n

B e a

 u * l a !

M a # u k

I * /  r

 u * l a !

402

403

409

1

2

*

0'1.,2-

'.0*.0

''.'-.


 u & / u &

 u * l a ! 600

21

/ e n ( e  $ a a n 700

'

'.01,.*0 -'.20.20*

Outlook Tebu 2016

Recommend Documents