IFTA 23rd Annual Conference
Friday, October 8, 2010
“Border Line” Pattern Pattern for the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Candlestick (Candle (Candlesti stick ck Chart) Chart)
- Positioning with 26 Base Lines and Timing for Time--Based Time -Based Loss Cutting Cutting--
Yukitoshi Higashino, Higashi no, MFTA MFTA 1
Five Factors of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (hereinafter Candlestick Chart) S&P500 (daily chart: June 2009 to August 2010) (P) 1250 1200 1150
April 26
Conversion line
Leading span 1
1219.80
Conversion line, base line, leading span 1, leading span 2, and lagging span are the five factors of the candlestick chart, and a chart showing those five factors is the “kinko hyo” (equilibrium chart).
Aug. 9 1129.24
1100 1050
Feb. 5 1000
1044.50
950
July 1 1010.91
Leading span 2
900
Lagging span
Base line
July 8
850
869.32 800 6 / 9 0 0 2
6 / 9 0 0 2
7 / 9 0 0 2
8 / 9 0 0 2
9 / 9 0 0 2
0 1 / 9 0 0 2
1 1 / 9 0 0 2
2 1 / 9 0 0 2
1 / 0 1 0 2
2
2 / 0 1 0 2
3 / 0 1 0 2
4 / 0 1 0 2
5 / 0 1 0 2
6 / 0 1 0 2
7 / 0 1 0 2
8 / 0 1 0 2
9 / 0 1 0 2
9 / 0 1 0 2
Ideal Top and Bottom Pattern in a Candlestick Chart Double bottom
Double top c
a
26
26
d
b
The ideal period from a low price “a” to “b” and from a
high price “c” to “d” is within 26 days.
Why? 3
Bottom Pattern Shifting from Fall to Rise Stock price
○
Ⅰ
a
b
26
Within 26 days from the " ," below "a" to "b" before turning upwards.
Ⅱ
a
26
b
△
Ⅲ
a
26
Within 26 days from the expected low "a," the price goes above “a” to “b” before turning upwards.
b
4
Starting from the expected low "a," the price falls to "b" which is higher than “a” and then rises, but in a period that exceeds 26 days.
Ceiling Pattern for Shifting from Rise to Fall c
26
d
○
Ⅰ
The price goes to lower “d” than the expected high "c" within 26 days and then goes down.
d c
26 The price goes to the higher “d” t an t e expecte ig c wit in 26 days and then goes down.
Ⅱ
c
26
d
△
Ⅲ
5
The price does not exceed the expected high "c" and goes down after hitting "d" but in a period of over 26 days from "c."
Important Points in Base line and Lagging Span ・ “Border line” - The ideal top-bottom pattern that introduces the daily change concept of “26 days” from the base line to the lagging span.
Base line: the middle price between the highest and lowest rice in the ast 26 da s includin the current day (highest price in a period of 26 days + lowest price in a period of 26 days) ÷2 Lagging span: current day’s closing price projected into the past by 26 days including the current day
6
What is the “Base Line”? DAX and base line (daily chart: March 2010 to August 2010) 6600
26 days
April 26 6341.52
6400
6200
5800
July 5 5809.37 May 25
5600
5607.68
Base line = (highest + lowest in the past 26 days)/2 On the following day, the same calculation is conducted by including the prices of the new day but excluding the prices of the oldest day in the base line calculation period.
* “26” used here is the important basic value in the concept of the kinko hyo (candlestick chart). 5400 3 / 0 1 0 2
3 / 0 1 0 2
4 / 0 1 0 2
5 / 0 1 0 2
6 / 0 1 0 2
7
7 / 0 1 0 2
8 / 0 1 0 2
9 / 0 1 0 2
0 1 / 0 1 0 2
What is the “Lagging Span”? SX5E and lagging span (daily chart: May 2009 to August 2010) 3200
Upturn
Downturn
Jan. 11
Downturn
April 16
3044.37
3027.14
3000
Aug. 5 2849.45
2800
Nov. 3
2600
2693.80
Feb. 8 2617.77
Upturn
2400
May 25 2448.10
2200
A line connecting daily values in the past 26 days including today’s closing
* “26” used here is the important basic value in the concept of the kinko hyo (candlestick chart). 2000 5 / 9 0 0 2
6 / 9 0 0 2
7 / 9 0 0 2
8 / 9 0 0 2
9 / 9 0 0 2
0 1 / 9 0 0 2
1 1 / 9 0 0 2
2 1 / 9 0 0 2
1 / 0 1 0 2
8
2 / 0 1 0 2
3 / 0 1 0 2
3 / 0 1 0 2
4 / 0 1 0 2
5 / 0 1 0 2
6 / 0 1 0 2
7 / 0 1 0 2
8 / 0 1 0 2
9 / 0 1 0 2
0 1 / 0 1 0 2
What the “base line” means in the border line. ・Base line: (highest in 26 days + lowest in 26 days) ÷2 Base line
○
Ⅰ Stock price
a
26
b
×
Ⅱ
a
26
When the price makes an upturn within 26 days from the expected low "a," the base line goes up in 26 days from the expected low "a," and therefore stock prices tend to go up. When the price goes below the expected low "a" within 26 days from "a," the base line cannot go up and provides resistance to the increase in stock prices, which increases the possibility of the price going down.
b
△
Ⅲ
a
26
b
9
When the price does not go down below the expected low "a" and makes an upturn after a period of 26 days, the base line moves sideways and then drops to become resistant to the rising of stock prices.
The softer the downtrend, the stronger the market (base line). Why is that?
Stock price Base line
When a dip to "b" is strong relative to the expected low "a," the leveling period of the base line tends to be extended. In that period, if the stock price does not go back up and exceed the high, the high of the base line during the calculation period becomes lower, thereby causing the base .
Ⅰ
a
26
b When a dip to "b" is weak relative to the expected low "a," it is relatively more likely that the price will go up above the recovery high. Therefore, the high of the base line during the calculation period go higher, and the uptrend of the base line continues, making it likely to create a stronger market.
Ⅱ
b a
26 10
What the “lagging span” means in the border line. ・Lagging span: current day’s daily closing price projected into the past by 26 days Stock price
○
Ⅰ Lagging span
a
26
b
×
Ⅱ
26 a
b
△
Ⅲ
a
26
b
11
When the price makes an upturn within 26 days from the expected low "a" after hitting "b," then the lagging span exceeds the stock price. (upturn or buy signal). When the price hits "b," which is lower than the expected low "a" within 26 days from "a," then the lagging span remains below the stock price. (continued downturn or sell signal). When the price does not go down below the expected low "a" but takes an upturn after hitting "b" in a period of over 26 days from "a," the lagging span is highly likely to go down below the stock price again. (downturn after upturn, sell signal).
The softer the downtrend, the stronger the market (lagging span). Why is that?
Stock price Lagging span
When the dip to "b" is strong relative to the expected low "a," the lagging span tends to touch the stock price of 26 days ago and thus is more likely to fall below the stock price. There is a high possibility of becoming a downturn.
Ⅰ
a
26
Ⅱ
b When the dip to "b" is soft relative to the expected low "a," the lagging span tends not to touch the stock price of 26 days ago and is thus relatively less likely to fall below the stock price. There is a low possibility of becoming a downturn.
b a
26 12
Basic Pattern for the Border Line ・ The border line is composed of the ideal patterns of the lagging line and the base line. △
△
Lagging span Base line
a
26
b
c
26
d
An ideal case is that the line does not go down below the base line and makes an upturn in about 26 days from the second lowest bottom.
26
An ideal case is that the line does not go up above the base line but drops again about 26 days from the second highest peak.
26 ▽
▽
13
The Strong Border Line Pattern and the Temporal Loss Cut ・ The value goes above or falls below the recovery high or the immediate low within 26 days. 26
The base line continues to rise, and the stock price shows a strong up trend.
△
▽
△ △
Lagging span Base line
a
26
b
c
26
d
▽ Loss cutting due to the fall of the base line
26
△ Loss cutting due to the rise of the base line
▽ ▽
△
▽ The base line continues to fall, and the stock price shows a strong down trend.
26
14
E Calculation after the Border Line (Setting of the Target) 3E
＝ ＝ E
＝
1000
26
800
＝ 50
950 750
900 E
850
＝ 50 800
＝ ＝ ＝
3E
26
A rise from the second lowest bottom or a drop from
700 650 600
the second highest
peak is often accompanied by a gap. Double
of the increment or decrement of the initial move becomes an equilibrium point.
15
Equilibrium Point is the Arrangement of the Lateral Axis and Vertical Axis.
・ Basic values
＝
(9, 17, 26, 33, 42, 51, 65, 76,
76 65
＝
83, 97, 101, 129…) ＝
Equilibrium point (important change day)
42
＝
Stock price No. of days
＝
26
・ Equivalent values
② 53+29-1 ＝
③ 29+88-1
＝
③
116
＝
④ 53+29+88-2
88
④
168
②
81 53
①
Equilibrium point (important change day)
29 53
＝
Stock price ＝
168 (53+29+88-2)
26
16
No. of days
Time Theory (Concept of Equivalent Value)
=
=
=
=
=
I
I
I
V
I
N
V
I
V
V
V
N
N
I
N
V
N
N
17
=
Itochu Corp. (8001, daily chart) January 2003 to November 2003 65
64 52
351 347
348
39
39
26 39
△
△
● Low within 26 days
26
18
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (8604、daily chart) November 2002 to September 2003 89
90 1803 1800
179
179
26
179
●
26 19
△
Marubeni Corp. (8002、daily chart) 26
High within 26 days
March 2008 to March 2009
●
102 102
102 102 102 102 102 274
129
20
260
AAPL UW (daily chart、Feb. 2008 to April 2009) 48
($) 200
48
May 14, 2008 192.24
February 2008 to April 2009
● 19.73
180
19.73
160
152.91
152.78 140
19.73
120
19.73 Sept. 18, 2008 120.70
19.73
100
19.73
80
73.86
Jan. 20, 2009
173
78.20
60 1 / 2 / 8 0
3 / 3 / 8 0
1 / 4 / 8 0
9 2 / 4 / 8 0
8 2 / 5 / 8 0
5 2 / 6 / 8 0
4 2 / 7 / 8 0
1 2 / 8 / 8 0
21
9 1 / 9 / 8 0
7 1 / 0 1 / 8 0
4 1 / 1 1 / 8 0
5 1 / 2 1 / 8 0
4 1 / 1 / 9 0
2 1 / 2 / 9 0
3 1 / 3 / 9 0
0 1 / 4 / 9 0
0 3 / 4 / 9 0
Sumitomo Metal Mining （5713、 daily chart ） 150(08.3.24) 45
151
1632
1626
46 270
77 270 1095
270
270
August 2008 to July 2009
26
22
Sumitomo Metal Mining （5713、 daily chart ） May 2010 to September 2010
26
26
23
26
NTT DOCOMO（9437、 daily chart ） October 2009 to August 2010
26
26
26 26
24
Deutsche Bank （ daily chart ） 70 €
October 2008 to September 2010 2010.4.15 60.55
2009.10.15 60
58.29
58.37
2009.7.27 2009.6.5
8.6
49.62
49.78
50
52.60
8.6 40
8.6 30
8.6 8.6
20
● 2009.1.21
95
189
15.38
10 0 1 / 8 0
1 1 / 8 0
2 1 / 8 0
2 / 9 0
3 / 9 0
5 / 9 0
6 / 9 0
8 / 9 0
9 / 9 0
25
0 1 / 9 0
2 1 / 9 0
1 / 0 1
3 / 0 1
4 / 0 1
6 / 0 1
7 / 0 1
8 / 0 1
0 1 / 0 1
SAP（ daily chart ） €
2007.9.21
43
August 2007 to Match 2008
42.08
● 41
1.97
39
1.97 1.97
37
1.97 1.97
33
1.97
31
1.97
29
28.29
2008.1.22
83
28.31
27 8 / 7 0
8 / 7 0
8 / 7 0
9 / 7 0
9 / 7 0
0 1 / 7 0
0 1 / 7 0
1 1 / 7 0
1 1 / 7 0
26
2 1 / 7 0
2 1 / 7 0
1 / 8 0
1 / 8 0
2 / 8 0
2 / 8 0
3 / 8 0
3 / 8 0
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (8604、daily chart) March 2010 to September 2010
26
▽
26
27
Mizuho Financial Group（8411、daily chart ） March 2010 to September 2010
26
▽
26
28
Caution This report is intended to provide information that helps the user to make proper investment judgments and does not aim to promote particular investments. The data contained in this report are based on reliable information, but we do not guarantee the correctness or integrity of the data. . is prohibited for this report to be provided or redistributed to any third person, or modified or changed in any way. It is also prohibited that copies or modified versions of this report be assigned or transferred to or used by any third person. T&C Financial Research,Inc. Yukitoshi Higashino
[email protected] 29
