A Study on equity analysis of selected banking stocks

A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS

1. A. INDUS INDUSTR TRY Y PROF PROFILE ILE INTRODUCTION

The banking The banking section section will navigate through all the aspects of the Banking System in India. It will discuss upon the matters with the birth of the banking concept in the country to new players adding their names in the industry in coming few years. As per the Reserve Bank of India (RBI! India"s banking sector is sufficiently capitali#ed and well$regulated. The financial and economic conditions in the country are far superior to any other country in the world. %redit! market and li&uidity risk studies suggest that Indian banks are generally resilient and have withstood the global downturn well. Indian banking industry is e'pected to witness better growth prospects in )*+ as a sense of optimism stems from the ,overnment"s measures towards revitali#ing the industrial growth in the country. In addition! RBI"s new measures may go a long way in helping the restructuring of the domestic banking bank ing industry. -owever! in the introduction part of the entire banking cosmos! the past has been well e'plained under three different heads namely

•

•

-istory of Banking in India

/ationali#ation of Banks in India IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 1


Scheduled %ommercial Banks in India

Thee firs Th firstt deal dealss with with the the history part part since since the the dawn dawn of banki banking ng syst system em in Indi India. a. ,overnment took ,overnment took ma0or step in the *1+1 to put the banking sector into systems and it nation nationali ali#ed #ed *2 privat privatee banks banks in the menti mentioned oned year. year. This has been been elabora elaborated ted in nationali#ation of Banks in India. The last but not the least e'plains about the scheduled and unscheduled banks in India. Section 2 (+ (a of RBI Act *132 lays down the condition of scheduled commercial banks.

History of Bankin in In!ia 4ithout a sound and effective banking system in India it cannot have a healthy economy. The banking system of India should not only be hassle free but it should be able to meet new challenges posed by the technology and any other e'ternal and internal factors. 5or the past three decades India6s India6s banking banking system has several outstanding outstanding achievements achievements to its credit. The most striking is its e'tensive reach. It is no longer confined to only metropolitans or cosmopolitans in India. In fact! Indian banking system has reached even to the remote corners of the country. This is one of the main reasons of India6s growth process. The government6s regular policy for Indian bank since *1+1 has paid rich dividends with the nationali#ation of *2 ma0or private banks bank s of India. /ot long ago! an account holder had to wait for hours at the bank counters for getting a draft or for withdrawing his own money. Today! Today! he has a choice. ,one are days when the

IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 2



Thee firs Th firstt deal dealss with with the the history part part since since the the dawn dawn of banki banking ng syst system em in Indi India. a. ,overnment took ,overnment took ma0or step in the *1+1 to put the banking sector into systems and it nation nationali ali#ed #ed *2 privat privatee banks banks in the menti mentioned oned year. year. This has been been elabora elaborated ted in nationali#ation of Banks in India. The last but not the least e'plains about the scheduled and unscheduled banks in India. Section 2 (+ (a of RBI Act *132 lays down the condition of scheduled commercial banks.

History of Bankin in In!ia 4ithout a sound and effective banking system in India it cannot have a healthy economy. The banking system of India should not only be hassle free but it should be able to meet new challenges posed by the technology and any other e'ternal and internal factors. 5or the past three decades India6s India6s banking banking system has several outstanding outstanding achievements achievements to its credit. The most striking is its e'tensive reach. It is no longer confined to only metropolitans or cosmopolitans in India. In fact! Indian banking system has reached even to the remote corners of the country. This is one of the main reasons of India6s growth process. The government6s regular policy for Indian bank since *1+1 has paid rich dividends with the nationali#ation of *2 ma0or private banks bank s of India. /ot long ago! an account holder had to wait for hours at the bank counters for getting a draft or for withdrawing his own money. Today! Today! he has a choice. ,one are days when the



most efficient bank transferred money from one branch to other in two days. /ow it is simple as instant messaging or dial a pi##a. 7oney 7one y have become the order of the day. The first bank in India! though conservative! was established in *89+. 5rom *89+ till today! the 0ourney of Indian Banking System can be segregated into three distinct phases. They are as mentioned below

•

•

:arly phase from *89+ to *1+1 of Indian Banks

/ationali#ation of Indian Banks and up to *11* prior to Indian banking sector Reforms.

•

/ew phase of Indian Banking System with the advent of Indian 5inancial ; Banking Sector Reforms after *11*.

The first bank in India! though conservative! was established in *89+. 5rom *89+ till today! the 0ourney of Indian Banking System can be segregated into three distinct phases. They are as mentioned below

•

:arly phase from *89+ to *1+1 of Indian Banks

•

Nationa"i#ation of In!ian Banks and up to *11* prior to Indian banking sector

Reforms.

•

/ew phase of Indian Banking System with the advent of Indian 5inancial ; Banking Sector Reforms after *11*.



Phas$ I The ,eneral Bank of India was set up in the year *89+. /e't came Bank of -industan and Bengal Bank. The :ast India %ompany established Bank of Bengal (*9)1! Bank of Bombay (*92) and Bank of 7adras (*923 as independent units and called it

In *9+= Allahabad Bank was established and first time e'clusively by Indians! td. was set up in *912 with head&uarters at >ahore. Between *1)+ and *1*3! Bank of India! %entral Bank of India! Bank of Baroda! %anara Bank! Indian Bank! and Bank of 7ysore were set up. Reserve Bank of India came in *13=.

?uring the first phase the growth was very slow and banks also e'perienced periodic failures between *1*3 and *129. There were appro'imately **)) banks! mostly small. To streamline the functioning and activities of commercial banks! the ,overnment of India came up with The Banking %ompanies Act! *121 which was later changed to Banking Regulation Act *121 as per amending Act of *1+= (Act /o. 3 of *1+=. Reserve Bank of India was vested with e'tensive powers for the supervision of banking in India as the %entral Banking Authority.

?uring those day"s public had lesser confidence in the banks. As an aftermath deposit mobili#ation was slow. Abreast of it the savings bank facility provided by the

Phas$ II ,overnment took ma0or steps in this Indian Banking Sector Reform after independence. In *1==! it nationali#ed Imperial Bank of India with e'tensive banking facilities on a large scale especially in rural and semi$urban areas. It formed State Bank of India to act as the principal agent of RBI and to handle banking transactions of the @nion and State ,overnments all over the country.

Seven banks forming subsidiary of State Bank of India was nationali#ed in *1+) on *1th uly! *1+1! ma0or process of nationali#ation was carried out. It was the effort of the then
Second phase of nationali#ation Indian Banking Sector Reform was carried out in *19) with seven more banks. This step brought 9) of the banking segment in India under ,overnment ownership.

The following are the steps taken by the ,overnment of India to Regulate Banking Institutions in the %ountry

*121 :nactment of Banking Regulation Act. *1== /ationali#ation of State Bank of India. *1=1 /ationali#ation of SBI subsidiaries. *1+* Insurance cover e'tended to deposits. *1+1 /ationali#ation of *2 ma0or banks.



*18* %reation of credit guarantee corporation. *18= %reation of regional rural banks. *19) /ationali#ation of seven banks with deposits over )) crore. After the nationali#ation of banks! the branches of the public sector bank India rose to appro'imately 9)) in deposits and advances took a huge 0ump by **!))). Banking in the sunshine of ,overnment ownership gave the public implicit faith and immense confidence about the sustainability of these institutions.

Phas$ III This phase has introduced many more products and facilities in the banking sector in its reforms measure. In *11*! under the chairmanship of 7 /arasimham! a committee was set up by his name which worked for the liberali#ation of banking practices.

The country is flooded with foreign banks and their AT7 stations. :fforts are being put to give a satisfactory service to customers.
money.

The financial system of India has shown a great deal of resilience. It is sheltered from any crisis triggered by any e'ternal macroeconomics shock as other :ast Asian %ountries suffered. This is all due to a fle'ible e'change rate regime! the foreign reserves are high! the capital account is not yet fully convertible! and banks and their customers have limited foreign e'change e'posure.



%urrently
S%h$!&"$! Co''$r%ia" Banks in In!ia The commercial banking structure in India consists of

•


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@nscheduled Banks in India

Scheduled Banks in India constitute those banks which have been included in the Second Schedule of Reserve Bank of India (RBI Act! *132. RBI in turn includes only those banks in this schedule which satisfy the criteria laid down vide section 2 (+ (a of the Act. As on 3)th une! *111! there were 3)) scheduled banks in India having a total network of +2!1*9 branches. The scheduled commercial banks in India comprise of State bank of India and its associates (9! nationali#ed banks (*1! foreign banks (2=! private sector IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 7


banks (3! co$operative banks and regional rural banks. EScheduled banks in IndiaE means the State Bank of India constituted under the State Bank of India Act! *1== (3 of *1==! a subsidiary bank as defined in the State Bank of India (Subsidiary Banks Act! *1=1 (39 of *1=1! a corresponding new bank constituted under section 3 of the Banking %ompanies (Ac&uisition and Transfer of @ndertakings Act! *18) (= of *18)! or under section 3 of the Banking %ompanies (Ac&uisition and Transfer of @ndertakings Act! *19) (2) of *19)! or any other bank being a bank included in the Second Schedule to the Reserve Bank of India Act! *132 ( of *132! but does not include a co$operative bankE. E/on$scheduled bank in IndiaE means a banking company as defined in clause (c of section = of the Banking Regulation Act! *121 (*) of *121! which is not a scheduled bankE.

5ig *.A.i

Th$ fo""o(in ar$ th$ S%h$!&"$! Banks in In!ia )P&*"i% S$%tor+,



•

State Bank of India

•

%entral Bank of India

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State Bank of Bikaner and aipur

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%orporation Bank

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State Bank of -yderabad

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?ena Bank

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State Bank of Indore

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Indian Fverseas Bank

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State Bank of 7ysore

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Indian Bank

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State Bank of Saurashtra

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Friental Bank of %ommerce

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State Bank of Travancore

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Andhra Bank

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Allahabad Bank

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Syndicate Bank

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Bank of Baroda

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@nion Bank of India

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Bank of India

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@nited Bank of India

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Bank of 7aharashtra

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@%F Bank

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%anara Bank

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Gi0ay Bank

5ig *.A.a IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 9


Th$ fo""o(in ar$ th$ S%h$!&"$! Banks in In!ia )Pri-at$ S$%tor+,

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I/, Gysya Bank >td

•

A'is Bank >td

-?5% Bank >td

%enturion Bank >td

Bank of td •

IndusInd Bank >td I?BI Bank >td

•

I%I%I Bank >td •

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ammu ; Hashmir Bank >td.

South Indian Bank

5ig *.A.b

Th$ fo""o(in ar$ th$ S%h$!&"$! For$in Banks in In!ia ,

American :'press Bank >td.

A/ ,ridlays Bank
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%iti Bank /.%.

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?eutsche Bank A.,.

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-ong Hong and Shanghai Banking %orporation

Bank of America /T ; SA


A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS Bank of Tokyo >td.

Ban&uc /ationale de
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Standard %hartered Bank.

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The %hase 7anhattan Bank >td.

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?resdner Bank A,.

Barclays Bank
5ig *.A.c

Broa! C"assifi%ation of Banks in In!ia, 1+ Th$ RB RBI, The RBI is the supreme monetary and banking authority in the country and has

the responsibility to control the banking system in the country. It keeps the reserves of all scheduled banks and hence is known as the JReserve BankK. + P&*"i P&*"i%% S$%to S$%torr Bank Banks, s,

State Bank of India and its Associates (+ /ationali#ed Banks (*1 Bharatiya 7ahila Bank ; Bank ; I?BI Bank Regional Rural Banks Sponsored by
/+ Pri-a Pri-at$ t$ S$%to S$%torr Ban Banks, ks,

Fld ,eneration

5oreign /ew ,eneration
0+ Coo2 Coo2$r $rati ati-$ -$ S$%tor S$%tor Bank Banks, s, 

State %o$operative Banks



%entral %o$operative Banks





>and ?evelopment Banks



State >and ?evelopment Banks

3+ D$-$ D$-$"o "o2' 2'$n $ntt Bank Banks, s, ?evelopment Banks mostly provide long term finance for setting

up industries. They also provide short$term finance (for e'port and import activities 

Industrial 5inance %o$operation of India (I5%I



Industrial ?evelopment of India (I?BI



Industrial Investment Bank of India (IIBI



Small Industries ?evelopment Bank of India (SI?BI

 

/ational Bank for Agriculture Agriculture and Rural ?evelopment (/ABAR? :'port$Import Bank of India.



Orani#ationa" Str&%t&r$ of Banks in In!ia , 5ig *.A.ii In India banks are classified in various categories according to differ rent criteria. The Reserve Bank of India

Co-operative Banks

Commercial Banks

Nationalized

Private

Agricltral Credit

Development Banks

Short-term creditLong-term credit

!r"an Credit

#$I%

Indstrial

Agricltral

above charts indicate the banking structure.

PRODUCTS AND SER4ICES OFFERED BY BAN5S,

Investme nt Banking

Consmer Banking

Asset %anagem ent

Commerci al Banking

Pensions


Retail Banking

%ortgages

Private Banking

Credit Cards


Broa! C"assifi%ation of Pro!&%ts in a *ank, The different products in a bank can be broadly classified into •

Retail Banking.

•

Trade 5inance.

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Treasury Fperations. Retail Banking and Trade finance operations are conducted at the branch level while the wholesale banking operations! which cover treasury operations! are at the hand office or a designated branch.

R$tai" Bankin, •

?eposits

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>oans! %ash %redit and Fverdraft

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/egotiating for >oans and advances

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Remittances

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Book$Heeping (maintaining all accounting records

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Receiving all kinds of bonds valuable for safe keeping



Tra!$ Finan%$, •

Issuing and confirming of letter of credit.

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?rawing! accepting! discounting! buying! selling! collecting of bills of e'change! promissory notes! drafts! bill of lading and other securities.

Tr$as&ry O2$rations, •

Buying and selling of bullion. 5oreign e'change

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Ac&uiring! holding! underwriting and dealing in shares! debentures! etc.

•

The banks can also act as an agent of the ,overnment or local authority. They insure! guarantee! underwrite! participate in managing and carrying out issue of shares! debentures! etc.

Apart from the above$mentioned functions of the bank! the bank provides a whole lot of other services like investment counseling for individuals! short$term funds management and portfolio management for individuals and companies. It undertakes the inward and outward remittances with reference to foreign e'change and collection of varied types for the ,overnment.

Fo""o(in S$r-i%$s Can B$ A-ai"$! On Th$ Int$rn$t, 

Bill


5unds Transfer IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 15

A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS 

Special


Ticket Booking



Fnline loans and credit cards



Fnline Shopping



Fnline Ta' payment



S6OT ANALYSIS ON INDIAN BAN5IN7 INDUSTRY STREN7THS •

Indian banks have compared favorably on growth! asset &uality and profitability with other emerging economies banks over the last few years.

•

•

Bank lending has been a significant driver of ,?< growth and employment.

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:'tensive reach the vast networking ; growing number of branches ; AT7s. Indian banking system has reached even to the remote corners of the country.


A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS •

In terms of &uality of assets and capital ade&uacy! Indian banks are considered to have clean! clean! strong strong and transp transpare arent nt balance balance sheets sheets relati relative ve to other other banks banks in comparable economies in its region.

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5oreign banks will have the opportunity to own up to 82 per cent of Indian private sector banks and ) per cent of government owned banks.

6EA5NESS

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Fld private sector banks also have the need to fundamentally strengthen skill levels.

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The cost of intermediation remains high and bank penetration is limited to only a few customer segments and geographies.

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Structural weaknesses such as a fragmented industry structure! restrictions on capital availability and deployment! lack of institutional support infrastructure!



restrictive restrictive labor laws! weak corporate corporate governance governance and ineffective ineffective regulations regulations beyond Scheduled %ommercial Banks (S%Bs! unless industry utilities and service bureaus.

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Refusal to dilute stake in
OPPORTUNITY

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The market is seeing discontinuous growth driven by new products and services that that incl include ude oppor opportu tuni niti ties es in cred credit it card cards! s! consu consume merr fina finance nce and weal wealth th management on the retail side! and in fee$based income and investment banking on the wholesale banking side. These re&uire new skills in sales ; marketing! credit and operations.

•

4ith 4ith increa increased sed intere interest st in India! India! compet competiti ition on from from foreig foreign n banks banks will will only intensify.

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,iven the demographic shifts resulting from changes in age profile and household income! income! consumers consumers will increasingly increasingly demand enhanced enhanced institutio institutional nal capabilitie capabilitiess and service levels from banks.



•

/ew private banks could reach the ne't level of their growth in the Indian banking sector by continuing to innovate and develop differentiated business models to profitably profitably serve segments segments like the ruralLlow income and affluentL affluentL-/I -/I segmentsM actively adopting ac&uisitions as a means to grow and reaching the ne't level of performance in their service platforms. Attracting! developing and retaining more leadership capacity

•

5oreign banks committed to making a play in India will need to adopt alternative appro approac aches hes to win win the the Jrac Jracee for for the the cust custom omer erKK and and build build a valu value$ e$cr creat eatin ing g customer franchise in advance of regulations potentially opening up post ))1. At the same time! they should stay in the game for potential ac&uisition opportunities as and when they appear in the near term. 7aintaining a fundamentally long$term value$creation mindset.

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Reach in rural India for the private sector and foreign banks.

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4ith the growth in the Indian economy e'pected to be strong for &uite some time$ especially in its services sector$the demand for banking services! especially retail banking! mortgages and investment services are e'pected to be strong.

•

Reserve Bank of India (RBI has approved a proposal from the government to amend the Banking Regulation Act to permit banks to trade in commodities and

commodity derivatives. IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 19

A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS •

-ybrid capital In an attempt to relieve banks of their capital crunch! the RBI has allowed them to raise perpetual bonds and other hybrid capital securities to shore up their capital. If the new instruments find takers! it would help
THREATS •

Threat of stability of the system failure of some weak banks has often threatened the stability of the system.

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Rise in inflation figures which would lead to increase in interest rates.

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Increase in the number of foreign players would pose a threat to the
1. B. ABOUT THE SUB8ECT



Sto%k 9ark$ts,

Stock 7arket is a market where the trading of company stock! both listed securities and unlisted takes place. It is different from stock e'change because it includes all the national stock e'changes of the country. 5or e'ample! we use the term! Ethe stock market was up todayE or Ethe stock market bubble.E

Sto%k E:%han$s, Stock :'changes are an organi#ed marketplace! either corporation or mutual organi#ation! where members of the organi#ation gather to trade company stocks or other securities. The members may act either as agents for their customers! or as principals for their own accounts. Stock e'changes also facilitates for the issue and redemption of securities and other financial instruments including the payment of income and dividends. The record keeping is central but trade is linked to such physical place because modern markets are computeri#ed. The trade on an e'change is only by members and stock broker do have a seat on the e'change.

Ca2ita" 9ark$t, The capital market is divided into two segments via

a+ Pri'ary 9ark$t, 7ost companies are usually started privately by their promoters. -owever the promoters Ncapital and the borrowed capital from banks or financial institutions might not be sufficient for running the business over the long term. That is when corporate and the government looks at the primary market to raise long term funds by issuing securities IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 21


such as debt or e&uity. These securities may be issued at face value! at premium or at discount.

*+ S$%on!ary 9ark$t, The secondary market provides li&uidity to the investors in the primary market. Today we would not invest in any instrument if there was no medium to li&uidate our position. The secondary markets provide an efficient platform for trading of those securities initially offered in the primary market. Also those investors who have applied for shares in an I
There are two leading stock e'changes in India which help us trade are

BO9BAY STOC5 E;CHAN7E )BSE+,

Bombay Stock :'change was established in *98= as EThe /ative Share and Stock Brokers AssociationE. It is the oldest one in Asia! even older than the Tokyo Stock :'change! which was established in *989. It is a voluntary non$profit making Association of

Act! *1=+. The :'change! while providing an efficient and transparent market for trading in securities! debt and derivatives upholds the interests of the investors and ensures redressal of their grievances whether against the companies or its own member$brokers. It also strives to educate and enlighten the investors by conducting investor education programs and making available to them necessary informative inputs. A ,overning Board having ) directors is the ape' body! which decides the policies and regulates the affairs of the :'change. The ,overning Board consists of 1 elected directors! who are from the broking community (one third of them retire every year by rotation! three S:BI nominees! si' public representatives and an :'ecutive ?irector ; %hief :'ecutive Ffficer and a %hief Fperating Ffficer.

The :'ecutive ?irector as the %hief :'ecutive Ffficer is responsible for the day$ to$day administration of the :'change and he is assisted by the %hief Fperating Ffficer and other -eads of ?epartment the :'change has inserted new Rule in its Rules! Bye$ laws ; Regulations pertaining to constitution of the :'ecutive %ommittee of the :'change. Accordingly! an :'ecutive %ommittee! consisting of three elected directors! three S:BI nominees or public representatives! :'ecutive ?irector ; %:F and %hief Fperating Ffficer has been constituted. The %ommittee considers 0udicial ; &uasi matters in which the ,overning Board has powers as an Appellate Authority! matters regarding annulment of transactions! admission! continuance and suspension of member$ brokers! declaration of a member$broker as defaulter! norms! procedures and other matters relating to arbitration! fees! deposits! margins and other monies payable by the member$brokers to the :'change! etc. IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 23


NATIONAL STOC5 E;CHAN7E )NSE+,

/ational Stock :'change of India >imited has genesis in the report of the -igh
The /ational Stock :'change (/S: operates a nation$wide! electronic market! offering trading in %apital 7arket! ?erivatives 7arket and %urrency ?erivatives segments including e&uities! e&uities based derivatives! %urrency futures and options! e&uity based :T5s! ,old :T5 and Retail ,overnment Securities. Today /S: network stretches to more than *!=)) locations in the country and supports more than ! 3)!))) terminals. 4ith more than *) asset classes in offering! /S: has taken many initiatives to strengthen the securities industry and provides several new products like 7ini /ifty! >ong ?ated Fptions and 7utual 5und Service System. Responding to market needs! /S: has introduced services like ?7A! 5IO capabilities! co$location facility and mobile trading to cater to the evolving need of the market and various categories of market participants. /S: has made its global presence felt with cross$listing arrangements! including IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 24


license agreements covering benchmark inde'es for @.S. and Indian e&uities with %7: ,roup and has also signed a 7emorandum of @nderstanding (7F@ with Singapore :'change (S,O to cooperate in the development of a market for India$linked products and services to be listed on S,O. The two e'changes also will look into a bilateral securities trading link to enable investors in one country to seamlessly trade on the other country6s e'change.

/S: is committed to operate a market ecosystem which is transparent and at the same time offers high levels of safety! integrity and corporate governance! providing ever growing trading ; investment opportunities for investors. /S: has played a catalytic role in reforming the Indian securities market in terms of microstructure! market practices and trading volumes. The market today uses state$of$art information technology to provide an efficient and transparent trading! clearing and settlement mechanism! and has witnessed several innovations in products ; services vi#. demutuali#ation of stock e'change governance! screen based trading! compression of settlement cycles! demateriali#ation and electronic transfer of securities! securities lending and borrowing! professionali#ation of trading members! fine$tuned risk management systems! emergence of clearing corporations to assume counterparty risks! market of debt and derivative instruments and intensive use of information technology. The fluctuating Indian securities market has probed the need for the study in order to understand the market conditions and to identify the price movements. This study would give an idea about the tools that can be used to determine how the price fluctuations in the future can be predicted. The past one year data of *) companies were IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 25


chosen for the study! from which the technical analysis has been made.

F&n!a'$nta" Ana"ysis It is one of the ma0or techni&ues involved in the securities market. The fundamental analysis involves intense knowledge on the economy! industry and company as a whole! and hence! it has not been included in the part of this study. 4hen talking about stocks! fundamental analysis is a techni&ue that attempts to determine a security6s value by focusing on underlying factors that affect a company6s actual business and its future prospects. Fn a broader scope! you can perform fundamental analysis on industries or the economy as a whole. The term simply refers to the analysis of the economic well$being of a financial entity as opposed to only its price movements. 5undamental analysis serves to answer &uestions! such as

•

Is the company6s revenue growingP

•

Is it actually making a profitP

•

Is it in a strong$enough position to beat out its competitors in the futureP

•

Is it able to repay its debtsP

•

Is management trying to Ecook the booksEP



Ff course! these are very involved &uestions! and there are literally hundreds of others you might have about a company. It all really boils down to one &uestion Is the company6s stock a good investmentP Think of fundamental analysis as a toolbo' to help you answer this &uestion.

E%ono'i% Ana"ysis The economic forecast is important for making decisions concerning both the timings of an investment and the relative investment desirability among the various industries in the economy. Rate of GDP

,?< is a measure of the total production of goods and services in the economy during a year. It is indicator of economic growth. ,enerally! ,?< growth rate ranges from +$9 percent. The growth rate of economy points out the prospectus for the industrial sector and the returns investors can e'pect from investment in shares. The higher the growth rate of ,?< the more favourable it is for stocks. Price Level and Fluctuations

If the inflation rate increases! then the growth rate would be very little. The increasingly inflation rate significantly affect the demand of consumer product industry. The industry which en0oy a strong market for their product and which do not come under purview of



price control may benefit from inflation. If there is a mild level of inflation! it is good to the stock market but high rate of inflation is harmful to the stock market. Agriculture and Monsoons

Increase or decrease in agricultural production has a significant impact on the industrial production and corporate performance. %ompanies using agricultural raw materials as inputs or supplying inputs to agriculture are directly affected by change in agriculture production. A good monsoon leads to higher demand for inputs and results in bumper crops. This would lead to buoyancy in stock market. Government Budget Deficit

,overnment revenue come from various direct and indirect ta'es and government made e'penditure on various development activities. The e'cess of e'penditure over revenue leads to budget deficit. The deficit budget may lead to high rate of inflation and adversely affects the cost of production and surplus budget may results in deflation. -ence balanced budget is highly favourable to the stock market. Infrastructure Facilities and Arrangements

A wide network of communication system! regular supply of power! a well$developed transportation system boost the industrial production and improves the growth of the economy. Banking and financial sector should be sound enough to provide ade&uate support t industry and agriculture. Thus! good infrastructure facilities affect the stock market favorably.

In!&stry Ana"ysis IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 28


>earning about how the industry works will give an investor a deeper understanding of a company6s financial health.

Customers

Some companies serve only a handful of customers! while others serve millions. In general! it6s a red flag (a negative if a business relies on a small number of customers for a large portion of its sales because the loss of each customer could dramatically affect revenues. 5or e'ample! think of a military supplier who has *)) of its sales with the @.S. government. Fne change in government policy could potentially wipe out all of its sales.

Market Share

@nderstanding a company6s present market share can tell volumes about the company6s business. The fact that a company possesses an 9= market share tells you that it is the largest player in its market by far. 5urthermore! this could also suggest that the company possesses some sort of Eeconomic moat!E in other words! a competitive barrier serving to protect its current and future earnings! along with its market share.

Industr Gro!th

Fne way of e'amining a company6s growth potential is to first e'amine whether the amount of customers in the overall market will grow. This is crucial because without new customers! a company has to steal market share in order to grow. IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 29


In some markets! there is #ero or negative growth! a factor demanding careful consideration. 5or e'ample! a manufacturing company dedicated solely to creating audio compact cassettes might have been very successful in the 68)s! 69)s and early 61)s. -owever! that same company would probably have a rough time now due to the advent of newer technologies! such as %?s and 7<3s.

Com"etition

Simply looking at the number of competitors goes a long way in understanding the competitive landscape for a company. Industries that have limited barriers to entry and a large number of competing firms create a difficult operating environment for firms.

Fne of the biggest risks within a highly competitive industry is pricing power . This refers to the ability of a supplier to increase prices and pass those costs on to customers. %ompanies operating in industries with few alternatives have the ability to pass on costs to their customers. A great e'ample of this is 4al$7art. They are so dominant in the retailing business! that 4al$7art practically sets the price for any of the suppliers wanting to do business with them. If you want to sell to 4al$7art! you have little! if any! pricing power.

Regulation

%ertain industries are heavily regulated due to the importance or severity of the industry6s products andLor services. As important as some of these regulations are



to the public! they can drastically affect the attractiveness of a company for investment purposes.

In industries where one or two companies represent the entire industry for a region (such as utility companies! governments usually specify how much profit each company can make. In these instances! while there is the potential for si#able profits! they are limited due to regulation.

Co'2any Ana"ysis

In this section we are going to highlight some of the company$specific &ualitative and &uantitative factors that you should be aware of.

Std& on 'inancial Statements

5inancial statements are the medium by which a company discloses information concerning its financial performance. The three most important financial statements $ income statements! balance sheets and cash flow statements $ we will briefly introduce each financial statement6s specific function! along with where the y can be found.

Th$ 9a
Balance Sheet



The balance sheet represents a record of a company6s assets! liabilities and e&uity at a particular point in time. The balance sheet is named by the fact that a business6s financial structure balances in the following manner

Assets Q >iabilities  Shareholders6 :&uity Assets represent the resources that the business owns or controls at a given point in time. This includes items such as cash! inventory! machinery and buildings. The other side of the e&uation represents the total value of the financing the company has used to ac&uire those assets. 5inancing comes as a result of liabilities or e&uity. >iabilities represent debt (which of course must be paid back! while e&uity represents the total value of money that the owners have contributed to the business $ including retained earnings! which is the profit made in previous years. #he Income Statement

4hile the balance sheet takes a snapshot approach in e'amining a business! the income statement measures a company6s performance over a specific time frame. Technically! you could have a balance sheet for a month or even a day! but you6ll only see public companies report &uarterly and annually. The income statement presents information about revenues! e'penses and profit that was generated as a result of the business6 operations for that period. Statement of Cash Flo!s

The statement of cash flows represents a record of a business6 cash inflows and outflows IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 32


over a period of time. The cash flow statement is important because it6s very difficult for a business to manipulate its cash situation. Typically! a statement of cash flows focuses on the following cash$related activities

•

Fperating %ash 5low (F%5 %ash generated from day$to$day business operations

•

%ash from investing (%5I %ash used for investing in assets! as well as the proceeds from the sale of other businesses! e&uipment or long$term assets

•

%ash from financing (%55 %ash paid or received from the issuing and borrowing of funds

B&sin$ss 9o!$"

:ven before an investor looks at a company6s financial statements or does any research! one of the most important &uestions that should be asked is 4hat e'actly does the company doP This is referred to as a company6s business model  it6s how a company makes money. Cou can get a good overview of a company6s business model by checking out its website.

Sometimes business models are easy to understand. Take 7c?onalds! for instance! which sells hamburgers! fries! soft drinks! salads and whatever other new special they are promoting at the time. It6s a simple model! easy enough for anybody to understand.



Fther times! you6d be surprised how complicated it can get. Boston %hicken Inc. is a prime e'ample of this. Back in the early 61)s its stock was the darling of 4all Street. At one point the company6s %:F bragged that they were the Efirst new fast$food restaurant to reach D* billion in sales since *1+1E. The problem is! they didn6t make money by selling chicken. Rather! they made their money from royalty fees and high$interest loans to franchisees. Boston %hicken was really nothing more than a big franchisor. Fn top of this! management was aggressive with how it recogni#ed its revenue. As soon as it was revealed that all the franchisees were losing money! the house of cards collapsed and the company went bankrupt.

At the very least! you should understand the business model of any company you invest in. The EFracle of FmahaE! 4arren Buffett! rarely invests in tech stocks because most of the time he doesn6t understand them. This is not to say the technology sector is bad! but it6s not Buffett6s area of e'pertiseM he doesn6t feel comfortable investing in this area. Similarly! unless you understand a company6s business model! you don6t know what the drivers are for future growth! and you leave yourself vulnerable to being blindsided like shareholders of Boston %hicken were.

Co'2$titi-$ A!-anta$

Another business consideration for investors is competitive advantage. A company6s long$ term success is driven largely by its ability to maintain a competitive advantage $ and keep it.

a business allowing it to keep competitors at bay and en0oy growth and profits. 4hen a company can achieve competitive advantage! its shareholders can be well rewarded for decades.

9ana$'$nt ust as an army needs a general to lead it to victory! a company relies upon management to steer it towards financial success. Some believe that management is the most important aspect for investing in a company. It makes sense $ even the best business model is doomed if the leaders of the company fail to properly e'ecute the plan.

So how does an average investor go about evaluating the management of a companyP This is one of the areas in which individuals are truly at a disadvantage compared to professional investors. Cou can6t set up a meeting with management if you want to invest a few thousand dollars.

:very public company has a corporate information section on its website. @sually there will be a &uick biography on each e'ecutive with their employment history! educational background and any applicable achievements. >et6s be honest 4e6re looking for dirt! and no company is going to put negative information on its corporate website.

Instead! here are a few ways for you to get a feel for management

*. Conference calls %hief :'ecutive Ffficer (%:F and %hief 5inancial Ffficer (%5F host &uarterly conference calls. (Sometimes you6ll get other e'ecutives as well. The first portion of the IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 35


call is management basically reading off the financial results. 4hat is really interesting is the &uestion$and$answer portion of the call. This is when the line is open for analysts to call in and ask management direct &uestions. Answers here can be revealing about the company! but more importantly! listen for candor. ?o they avoid &uestions! like politicians! or do they provide forthright answersP

. Management Discussion and Analsis

The 7anagement ?iscussion and Analysis is found at the beginning of the annual report. In theory! the 7?;A is supposed to be frank commentary on the management6s outlook. Sometimes the content is worthwhile! other times its boilerplate. Fne tip is to compare what management said in past years with what they are saying now. Is it the same material rehashedP -ave strategies actually been implementedP If possible! sit down and read the last five years of 7?; asM it can be illuminating.

3. $!nershi" and Insider Sales

ust about any large company will compensate e'ecutives with a combination of cash! restricted stock and options. 4hile there are problems with stock options (See

:'change %ommission (S:%! so it6s publicly available information. Talk is cheap $ think twice if you see management unloading all of its shares while saying something else in the media.

2. Past Performance

Another good way to get a feel for management capability is to check and see how e'ecutives have done at other companies in the past. Cou can normally find biographies of top e'ecutives on company web sites. Identify the companies they worked at in the past and do a search on those companies and their performance.

Cor2orat$ 7o-$rnan%$ %orporate governance describes the policies in place within an organi#ation denoting the relationships and responsibilities between management! directors and stakeholders. These policies are defined and determined in the company charter and its bylaws! along with corporate laws and regulations. The purpose of corporate governance policies is to ensure that proper checks and balances are in place! making it more difficult for anyone to conduct unethical and illegal activities. ,ood corporate governance is a situation in which a company complies with all of its governance policies and applicable government regulations in order to look out for the interests of the company6s investors and other stakeholders. Although! there are companies and organi#ations (such as Standard ;

stakeholders! most of these reports are &uite e'pensive for the average investor to purchase. 5ortunately! corporate governance policies typically cover a few general areas structure of the board of directors! stakeholder rights and financial and information transparency. 4ith a little research and the right &uestions in mind! investors can get a good idea about a company6s corporate governance.

T$%hni%a" Ana"ysis Technical analysis can be defined as a method that attempts to forecast future price trends by the means of analy#ing market action. It was established as early as *9th century. -owever! most of its methods as we know them today were created in the first decades of )th century. The core idea of technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself. That is why we can find certain situations in the market that occur regularly. These situations can be discovered by %hart analysis and technical indicators! which we can use for our advantage  and that is precisely what technical analysis is trying to do. There are several approaches to technical analysis  such as the ?ow Theory! :lliot wave theory! 5ibonacci6s analysis! cyclical analysis and so on. -owever! the most commonly used methods can be divided into two ma0or branches  namely %hart analysis (also called charting and statistical approach. 4ith %hart analysis! the analyst is trying to find patterns that price creates in the %hart and that occur repeatedly. 5or e'ample! head and shoulders or double bottoms are considered typical %hart patterns. As soon as the analyst identifies such a pattern! he can make a trade based on the direction the price IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 38


should follow based on the type of the pattern.

Another branch of technical analysis is constituted by the statistical techni&ues! which comprise mostly the study and use of various technical indicators. These indicators are computed from historical market data and are mostly used for forecasting trend reversals or changes in strength of the trend. 7any of the indicators yield precise buy and sell signals. There are several kinds of indicators  from the very simple ones like moving averages to the very complicated such as Swing inde'! for which the mathematical formula is several lines long. Cet! the ma0or drawback of using technical indicators is that they provide too many trading signals that are often contradicting each other. It is so because different indicators work best in different kind of market (or phase of the trend.

Th$ Basi% Ass&'2tions of T$%hni%a" Ana"ysis ar$ 1. 9ark$t F"&%t&ations Dis%o&nt E-$rythin $"s$ . Technical analysts

believe that changes in the price of a security and how well it trades in the market embody all available information about that security from everyone involved with it and therefore represents the fair value of that security. IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 39


Sudden changes in how a stock trades often precedes ma0or news about the company that issued the stock. Technical analysts don6t concern themselves with the price$to$earnings ratio! shareholder e&uity! return on e&uity or other factors that fundamental analysts do.

. Pri%$ 9o-$'$nts %an oft$n *$ %hart$! an! 2r$!i%t$! . Technical analysts acknowledge that there are periods when prices move randomly! but there are also times when they move in an identifiable trend. Fnce a trend is identified! it is possible to make money from it! either by buying low and selling high during an upward trend (bull market or by selling short during a downward trend (bear market. By ad0usting the length of time the market is being analy#ed! it is possible to spot both short$ and long$term trends.

/. History R$2$ats Its$"f .
Too"s of T$%hni%a" ana"ysis SI9PLE 9O4IN7 A4ERA7E )S9A+

It is a tool commonly used by traders and technical analysts to analy#e the price movement of securities. Simple 7oving Average (S7A is a moving average that is IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 40


calculated by adding the closing price of the security for a number of time periods and then dividing this total by the number of time. In this study Simple moving average is used. A simple moving average is formed by computing the average (mean price of a security over a specified number of periods. 4hile it is possible to create moving averages from the Fpen! the -igh! and the >ow data points! most moving average are created using the closing price. 5or e'ample a =$day simple moving average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the last = days and dividing the total by =.

1= > 11 > 1 > 1/ > 10 ? @= )@=  3+ ? 1

The calculation is repeated for each price bar on the chart. The averages are then 0oined to form a smooth curving line $ the moving average line. %ontinuing our e'ample! if the ne't closing price in the average is *=! then this new period would be added and the oldest day! which is *)! would be dropped. The new =$day simple moving average would be calculated as follows 11 > 1 > 1/ > 10 > 13 ? @3 )@3  3+ ? 1/.

RELATI4E STREN7TH INDE;

RSI is an oscillator used to identify the inherent technical strength and weakness of a particular scrip or market. RSI can be calculated for scrip by adopting the following formula. IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 41


RSIQ*))$*))

*RS

RSQAverage ,ain per ?ay Average loss per ?ay

The RSI can be calculated for any number of days depending on the wish of the technical analyst and the time frame of trading adopted in a particular stock market. RSI is calculated for =! 8! 1 and *2 days. If the period taken for calculation is more! the possibility of getting wrong signals is reduced. The broad rule is! if the RSI crosses seventy there may be downturn and it is time to sell. If the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the script. If the RSI is rising in the overbought #one! it would indicate the downfall of the price. If RSI falls in the overbought #one! it gives a clear signal of sell. This condition occurs after a sharp rise in price during a period of heavy buying. 4hen the RSI is in the oversold region! it generates the buy signal. The term oversold is used to describe a security or market that has declined to an unreasonably low level. In simple words! the RSI ranges from ) to *)). An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 8) level! meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback . >ikewise! if the RSI approaches 3)! it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. A trader using RSI should be aware that large surges and drops in the price of an IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 42


asset will affect the RSI by creating false buy or sell signals. The RSI is best used as a valuable complement to other stock$picking tools.

Rat$ of %han$ is the speed at which a variable changes over a specific period of time. RF% measures the rate of change between the current price and the price Nn" number of days in the past. RF% helps to find out the overbought and oversold positions in scrip. %losing prices are used to calculate the RF%. ?aily closing prices are used for the daily RF% and weekly closing prices for weekly RF%. In this study I have used weekly closing prices for calculation. 7any traders pay close attention to the speed at which one variable changes relative to another. The Rate of %hange (RF% indicator is a very simple yet effective momentum oscillator that measures the percent change in price from one period to the ne't. The (RF% calculation compares the current price with the price n periods ago.

ROC ? ))To!ays %"os$  C"os$ n 2$rio!s ao+  )C"os$ n 2$rio!s ao++  1==

The main advantage of RF% is the identification of overbought and oversold region. The historic high and low values of the RF% should be identified at first to locate the overbought and oversold region. If the scrip"s RF% reaches the historic high values! the scrip is in the overbought region. If the scrip"s RF% reaches the historic low value! the scrip is in the oversold region.

.

RESEARCH STUDY

. I.TITLE OF THE STUDY ST@?C F/ :U@ITC A/A>CSIS F5 S:>:%T:? BA/HI/, STF%HS

STATE9ENT OF PROBLE9 IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 43


To suggest the investors to make investment in good stocks using technical analysis. Stock investment re&uires meticulous planning and careful evaluation of the underlying stock before making investment. A statistical data in the recent past indicated that 1= per cent of the investors in the stock markets are losers! since they undertake investment without any information and without discipline. 4hich stock to investP 4hat type of security to buyP 4hen to sell the securitiesP 4here to InvestP -ow to InvestP 4hether hold! sell or buy securitiesP It is much re&uired for the investors to study the market and to understand market psychology so that they can make optimal decisions.

 .II. O*<$%ti-$s •

• • •

To know the movements of stock prices of selected company stocks through Technical analysis. To analy#e the risk involved in the selected companies share price. To know how best we can utili#e these analyses to meet the financial goals. To suggest better ways and means for the investors to enhance the knowledge about stock investment in the secondary market.

. III. SCOPE OF THE STUDY



The scope of the study is identified after and during the study is conducted. The pro0ect is based on tools like technical analysis. 5urther! the study is based on information of last two years. To help the investor in making decisions based on report. Analysis of the shares of companies. Studying the stock price movement of the security market. -elps to identify trend reversals at an earlier stage to formulate the buying and selling strategy.

. I4.RESEARCH 9ETHODOLO7Y R$s$ar%h D$sin Research design is the procedure of collecting! analy#ing and interpreting the data to diagnose the problem and react to the opportunity in such a way where the costs can be minimi#ed and the desired level of accuracy can be achieved to arrive at a particular conclusion. The sample of the stocks for the purpose of collecting secondary data has been selected on the basis of convenient sampling. The stocks are chosen in an unbiased manner and



each stock is chosen independent of the other stocks chosen. The stocks are chosen from the Banking sector. The sample si#e for the number of stocks is four for technical analysis of stocks as technical analysis re&uires detailed study. 5or these four stocks technical analysis is done. The validity of any research is based on the systematic method of data collection and analysis. Secondary data from website! newspapers are used for the present study. Analytical research design has been used in this study.

Data Co""$%tion 9$tho!, To carry out this pro0ect! secondary data was collected which is the closing stock prices of the following companies • • • •

State Bank India. I%I%I Bank >td. -?5% Bank >td. Bank of Baroda >td.

Statisti%a" Too"s &s$!, • • •

Simple 7oving Average Relative Strength Inde' Rate of %hange Indicator

. 4.RE4IE6 OF LITERATURE Coot$r )1G@+ found that the stock prices move at random when studied at one week

interval. The data for his study was weekend prices of forty five stocks from /ew Cork stock e'change .-e tested randomness of share by means of a mean s&uare successive IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 46


difference test. -e concluded that there was not one random walk model. -e concluded that the share price trends could be predicted when studied at fourteen week interval. Tay"or an! A""$n )1GG+ conducted a survey on the use of technical analysis among

chief foreign e'change dealers in the >ondon market in *199. The results indicated that +2 of respondents reported using moving averages andLor other trend$following systems and 2) reported using other trading systems such as momentum indicators or oscillators. F$rnan!o F$rnan!$# Ro!ri&$# Si'on Sos-i""a Ri-$ro 8&"ian An!ra!a F$"i: )1GGG+ assessed whether some simple forms of technical analysis can predict stock price

movement in the 7adrid stock e'change! covering thirty$one$year period from an *1++ Fct *118.the results provide strong support for profitability of those technical trading rules. By making use of bootstrap techni&ues the author shows the returns obtained from these trading rules are not consistent with several null models fre&uently used in finance.

Ch$&n Chinn an! 9arsh )===+ surveyed the views of @H$based foreign e'change

?ealers on technical analysis in *119 and found that + of the dealers responded that technical trading is the most important factor that determines e'change rate movements over the medium run.

O*$r"$%hn$r )==1+ reported findings from a survey on the importance of technical and

fundamental analysis among foreign e'change traders and financial 0ournalists in IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 47


5rankfurt! >ondon! Gienna! and urich in *11+. 5or foreign e'change traders! technical analysis seemed to be a more important forecasting tool than fundamental analysis up to a 3$ month forecasting*3 hori#on! while for financial 0ournalists it seemed to be more important up to *$month.

Ch$&n an! Chinn )==1+ published survey results for @S$based foreign e'change

traders conducted in *119. In the survey! about 3) of the traders indicated that technical trading best describes their trading strategy. About 3* of the traders responded that technical trading was the primary factor determining e'change rate movements up to + months. C. L. Os"$r )==1+ provides a micro$structural e'planation for the success of two

familiar predictions from technical analysis (* trends tend to be reversed at predictable support and resistance levels! and ( trends gain momentum once predictable support and resistance levels are crossed. The e'planation is based on a close e'amination of stop$loss and take$profit orders at a large foreign e'change dealing bank. Ra-in!ra an! 6an )==@+ e'amine the relationship of trading volume to stock

indices in Asian markets. Stock market indices from si' developing markets in Asia are analy#ed over the 32 month period ending in Fctober ))=. In the South Horean market! the causality e'tends from the stock indices to trading volume while the causality is the opposite in the Taiwanese market.


A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS R.Chitra )=11+ has performed technical analysis of selected stocks of :nergy sector

and has found that technical analysis is a useful tool for prediction of stock prices for a short term

. 4I.NEED OF THE STUDY To start any business capital plays a ma0or role. %apital can be ac&uired in two ways by issuing shares or by taking debt from financial institutions or borrowing money from financial institutions. The owners of the company have to pay regular interest and principal amount at the end. Stock is ownership in a company! with each share of stock representing a tiny piece of ownership. The more shares you own! the more of the company you own. The more shares you own! the more dividend you earn when the company makes profit. In the financial world! ownership is called J:&uityK. Advantages of selling stock A company can raise more capital than it could borrow. A company does not have to make periodic interest payments to creditors. A company does not have to make principal payments. StockLshares play a ma0or role in ac&uiring capital to the business in return investors are paid dividends to the shares they own. The more shares you own the more dividends you receive. The role of e&uity analysis is to provide information to the market. An efficient market relies on information a lack of information creates inefficiencies that result in IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 49


stocks being misrepresented (over or under valued. This is valuable because it fills information gaps so that each individual investor does not need to analy#e every stock there by making the markets more efficient. If there is no e&uity analysis investor may invest in wrong stocks and finally end up in loses.

. 4II.LI9ITATIONS OF THE RESEARCH

•

The analysis is focused on four banking companies. The study e'cludes 5undamental Analysis! which is one of the most important

•

techni&ues of analysis. The study focuses on the companies already e'isting in the Securities 7arket and

•

it e'cludes the companies that newly listed ones into the market. Times period of the study is too short.

•

/. CO9PANY PROFILE Ty2$ Tra!$! as


In!&stry

 Banking! 5inancial services.

Fo&n!$! Fo&n!$r H$a!&art$rs Ar$a s$r-$!

, ) uly *1)9. , 7ahara0a -. -. Sir Saya0irao ,aekwad III. , Gadodara! India. , 4orldwide

5$y 2$o2"$

, 7r. < S ayakumar (%:F; 7? 7r. Bharat ?angar (?irector!



Pro!&%ts

, %redit cards! consumer banking! corporate banking !finance and insurance! investment banking! mortgage loans! private banking! private e&uity! wealth management.

Tota" ass$ts

, D**3.3 billion ()*=.

O(n$r

, ,overnment of India.

6$*sit$

 www.bankofbaroda.com.

Shar$ Ho"!in Patt$rn of Bank of Baro!a



5ig 3.a

Ty2$ Tra!$! as

, S: SBI?

S!" B!#$ %&

BS: S:/S:O %onstituent

In!&stry Fo&n!$! H$a!&art$rs Ar$a s$r-$! 5$y 2$o2"$

%/O /ifty %onstituent , Banking! financial services , 8 anuary *1*! Imperial Bank of India , 7umbai! 7aharashtra! India , 4orldwide  Smt. Arundhati Bhattacharya (%hairperson

Pro!&%ts

, %onsumer banking! corporate banking! finance and insurance! investment banking! loans! private! private e&uity! savings! securities! asset! wealth management! credit cards

R$-$n&$

,

Rs.=891 crore (@SD39 billion ()*=

Profit

,

Rs(*8=*8 crore (@SD.+ billion ()*=



Tota" ass$ts Tota" $&ity 



Rs.8))**) crore (@SD2)) billion ()*=

Rs. )32*8 crore (@SD3) billion ()*=

O(n$r

, ,overnment of India.

9$'*$rs

, 9+ million users with 2=) million accounts ()*+

N&'*$r of $'2"oy$$s, !)33 ()*2 S"oan

, The Banker to :very Indian. Shar$ Ho"!in Patt$rn of SBI



5ig 3.b

Ty2$ Tra!$! as

,
In!&stry Fo&n!$! H$a!&art$rs Ar$a s$r-$! 5$y 2$o2"$ Pro!&%ts

7anagement !
R$-$n&$ Profit Tota" ass$ts N&'*$r of $'2"oy$$s 6$*sit$

, Rs.112).8 crore (@SD*.= billion ()*=  Rs.33=+.9 crore (@SD21) million ()*= , Rs.+9891 crore (@SD*)) billion ()*= , 8+!9+

(7arch )*= , -?5%Bank.com

Shar$ Ho"!in Patt$rn of HDFC



5ig 3.c

Ty2$ Tra!$! as,


In!&stry Fo&n!$! H$a!&art$rs Ar$a s$r-$! 5$y 2$o2"$ Pro!&%ts

%/O /ifty %onstituent , Banking! financial services , *112 , 7umbai! 7aharashtra! India , 4orldwide  7r. 7. H. Sharma (%hairman ; 7rs. %handa Hochhar (7? ; %:F , %redit cards! %onsumer banking! corporate banking!

finance and insurance! investment banking! mortgage loans! private banking! wealth management! oan!
Tota" ass$ts Tota" $&ity

, ,

@SD*)3.2 billion ()*= @SD*.1 billion ()*=



N&'*$r of $'2"oy$$s 6$*sit$

, +8!9=8 ()*= , www.icicibank.com.

N% %& S'!(")

.+ )+ +

)+

,+ )*+

Promoters

'inancialInstittions

/eneralP"lic

NBanks%tal'nds

0thers

Central/ovt

Shar$ Ho"!in Patt$rn of ICICI

5ig 3.d

0. Data Ana"ysis J Int$r2r$tation 0. I. Si'2"$ 9o-in A-$ra$ of SBI



SIM*LE MO+IN G A+ERAGE %& SBI 1..

...

,1..

,...

*1..

*...

1..

.

Clo se Price

S%A2 . 3

5ig 2.I.a

Int$r2r$tation The chart shows 3) day moving average of SBI limited for a period of one year from anuary )*2 to ?ecember )*2.The chart shows that the market are in increasing trend at the beginning but from une the trend is flat and finally there is a sudden decline at the end of /ovember . It is always good to sell when the S7A curve goes up crossing the closing price and can buy when the closing price goes up crossing the S7A curve. So it is good to buy in the month of 7arch.

0. I. R$"ati-$ Str$nth In!$: of SBI IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 57


RSI %& SBI *.. 7. 6. 5. ). 1. 4. . ,. *. .

5ig 2.I.b

Int$r2r$tation The chart shows the Relative Strength Inde' of State Bank of India for a period of one year from anuary )*2 till ?ecember )*2.The RSI indicates the buy and sell signal for the best profitable investment and to minimi#e the loss. The buy signal is in the month of uly and August. The sell signal is in the month of 7arch! 7ay and /o vember.

0. I. Rat$ of Chan$ of SBI



ROC 14 D!) %& SBI ).

4.

,.

.

-,.

-4.

-).

-6.

-*..

5ig 2.I.c

Int$r2r$tation, The chart shows *2 day Rate of %hange in price of State Bank of India during one year period from anuary )*2 till ?ecember )*2.The Rate of %hange helps in identifying the overbought and over sold conditions during the period. The stock has reached overbought condition during 7ay and this has made the price to fall. The oversold condition was reali#ed during ?ecember and this has made the price to raise.

0. II. Si'2"$ 9o-in A-$ra$ of ICICI IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 59


SIM*LE MO+IN G A+ERAGE OF ICI CI ,... *6.. *).. *4.. *,.. *... 6.. ).. 4.. ,.. .

Clo se Pric e

S%A2 . 3

5ig 2.I.d

Int$r2r$tation The chart shows 3)days moving average of I%I%I Bank >td. for a period of one year from anuary )*2 till ?ecember )*2. The chart shows that market is good since beginning and a ma0or decline is in the month of ?ecember. It is always good to sell when the S7A curve goes up crossing the closing price.

0. II. R$"ati-$ str$nth in!$: of ICICI



RSI OF ICICI *.. 7. 6. 5. ). 1. 4. . ,. *. .

5ig 2.I.e

Int$r2r$tation The chart shows the Relative Strength Inde' of I%I%I Bank >td. for a period of one year from anuary )*2 till ?ecember )*2.The RSI indicates the buy and sell signal for the best profitable investment and to minimi#e the loss. 4hen the value is near 3) we can buy and when the value is near 8) we can sell. The buy signal is in 5ebruary and ?ecember. The sell signal is in 7arch! 7ay and /ovember.

0. II. Rat$ of %han$ of ICICI



ROC 14DAYS OF ICICI 4.

,.

.

-,.

-4.

-).

-6.

-*..

5ig 2.I.f

Int$r2r$tation, The chart shows *2 day Rate of %hange in price of I%I%I Bank >td. during one year period from anuary )*2 till ?ecember )*2.The Rate of %hange helps in identifying the overbought and over sold conditions during the period. The stock has reached overbought condition during 7arch and this has made the price to fall. The oversold condition was reali#ed during ?ecember and this has made the price to rise.



0. III. Si'2"$ 9o-in A-$ra$ of HDFC

SIM*LE MO+ING A+ERAGE OF -DFC *,..

*...

6..

)..

4..

,..

.

Clo se Pric e

S%A2 . 3

5ig 2.I.g

Int$r2r$tation The chart shows 3)days moving average of -?5% >td. for a period of one year from anuary )*2 till ?ecember )*2. The chart shows that market is bullish for the entire year. It is always good to sell when the S7A curve goes up crossing the closing price and can buy when the closing price goes up crossing the S7A curve IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 63


0. III. R$"ati-$ Str$nth In!$: of HDFC

RSI OF -DFC 7. 6. 5. ). 1. 4. . ,. *. .

5ig 2.I.h

Int$r2r$tation The chart shows the Relative Strength Inde' of -?5% >td. for a period of one year from anuary )*2 till ?ecember )*2.The RSI indicates the buy and sell signal for the best



profitable investment and to minimi#e the loss. The buy signal is in the month of 5ebruary and April. The sell signal is in the month of 7arch and 7ay.

0. III. Rat$ of Chan$ of HDFC

ROC 14 DAYS OF -DFC *1

*.

1

.

-1

-*.

5ig 2.I.i

Int$r2r$tation The chart shows *2 day Rate of %hange in price of -?5% Bank >td. during one year period from anuary )*2 till ?ecember )*2.The Rate of %hange helps in identifying IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 65


the overbought and over sold conditions during the period. The stock has reached overbought condition during 7arch and 7ay and this has made the price to fall. The oversold condition was reali#ed during 5ebruary! August and ?ecember and this has made the price to rise.

0. I4. Si'2"$ 9o-in A-$ra$ of Bank of Baro!a

SIM*LE MO+IN G A+ERAGE OF BOB *,..

*...

6..

)..

4..

,..

.

Clo se Pric e

5ig 2.I.0

Int$r2r$tation IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 66

S%A2 .3


The chart shows 3)days moving average of Bank of Baroda >td. for a period of one year from anuary )*2 till ?ecember )*2. The %hart shows that market is bullish trend and then stabili#es only in the month of une. It is always good to sell when the S7A curve goes up crossing the closing price and can buy when the closing price goes up crossing the S7A curve. Sell at une and Buy at /ovember.

0. I4. R$"ati-$ Str$nth In!$: of Bank of Baro!a

RSI OF BOB *.. 7. 6. 5. ). 1. 4. . ,. *. .

5ig 2.I.k



The chart shows the Relative Strength Inde' of Bank of Baroda >td. for a period of one year from anuary )*2 till ?ecember )*2.The RSI indicates the buy and sell signal for the best profitable investment and to minimi#e the loss. The buy signal is in the month of 5ebruary and Fctober. The sell signal is in the month of 7arch! 7ay an d /ovember.

0. I4. Rat$ of Chan$ of BOB

ROC 14DAYS OF BOB . ,1 ,. *1 *. 1 . -1 -*. -*1 -,.

5ig 2.I.l



The chart shows *2 day Rate of %hange in price of Bank of Baroda >td. during one year period from anuary )*2 till ?ecember )*2.The Rate of %hange helps in identifying the overbought and over sold conditions during the period. The stock has reached overbought condition during 7arch and this has made the price to fall. The oversold condition was reali#ed during the month of 5ebruary and this has made the price to rise.

3. Fin!ins Stat$ Bank of In!ia )3.a+,

ICICI )3.*+, INDICATOR

BUY

SELL

S7A

7arch

/ovember

RSI

uly and August

7ay and /ovember

RF%

?ecember

7ay

INDICATOR

BUY

SELL

S7A

7arch and Fctober

?ecember

RSI

5ebruary and ?ecember

7arch! 7ay and /ovember

RF%

?ecember

7arch



HDFC )3.%+, INDICATOR

BUY

SELL

S7A

7arch and 7ay

August

RSI

5ebruary and April

7arch and 7ay

RF%

5ebruary!

August

and 7arch and 7ay

?ecember

Bank of Baro!a )3.!+, INDICATOR

BUY

SELL

S7A

7arch and /ovember

une

RSI

5ebruary and Fctober

7ay and /ovember

RF%

5ebruary

7arch

3. I.SU77ESTIONS IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 70


Technical analysis will improve the investment decision. Technical analysis is simple and more reliable .The investor should have the knowledge regarding the market terms. So that they can take ma'imum return from ma'imum investment. In case a trader entering into the new industry first he has to select stocks to buy in new industry after making careful study prospects and charts of the stock. After analy#ing the past performance of selected stocks! it is found that the performance of the stocks of Bank of Baroda can be bought because their market is in bullish trend and the stocks of -?5% are in neutral condition and it is good to wait for the perfect market. The stocks of SBI and I%I%I are in increasing trend since beginning and there is a sudden down trend at the end and it can be bought in the buy signal using the technical indicators. The investors can take their investment decisions by considering the simple indicators. In S7A! the investor can buy the stock when the closing price goes up crossing the S7A curve and should sell when the S7A curve goes above the closing price. In RSI! the investor can buy at the level of 3) and sell at the level of 8). These indicator can be followed for making a profitable trade. Investment Rules • • • • •

Invest for long term in e&uity markets. Align your thought process with the business cycle of the company. Set the purpose for investment. ?isciplined investment during market volatility helps attains profits.


@. CONCLUSION

Technical analysis is a techni&ue which gives an idea about future share prices of selected companies in which we invest. Fn the basis of the knowledge of technical analysis one can make the perfect investment decision of the stock market. By using the technical indicators the future market of securities would be known in which to invest. The more accurate prediction of stock prices of selected companies the investor to carry out fundamental analysis of stock prices! they can predict of future trend of stock prices.

Fn the basis of prediction of four companies different pattern of stock prices of these companies give an idea of future trend of these companies could be analy#ed with the right technical analysis tools! technical analysis of utmost importance to predict trend of short and medium term price movement and help the investors to select the right plan and decisions to invest in the remunerative stocks.

Ann$:&r$



The calculation of simple moving average! Relative strength inde' and Rate of change is done for two years it is shown here CALULATION OF SI9PLE 9O4IN7 A4ERA7E

D!"

ICICI C.%)" SMA3

SBI C.%)" SMA3

-DFC C.%)" SMA3

BOB C.%)" SMA3

*(/"

*(/"

*(/"

*(/"

0

0

0

*-8an-*4

*.75(4

*5)1(

))1(.1

)15(5

,-8an-*4

*.51(*

*54,(1

)1)(61

)1.(,

-8an-*4

*.)5

*5*)(* *)65()

))(1

)47(71

)-8an-*4

*.4.(5 *.47(7

1 *)17(5

)),

)5(7

5-8an-*4

1 *.14(.

1

))4(51

)*)(51

6-8an-*4

1

*)11(4

))4()1

),7(61

7-8an-*4

*.1*(1 *.,4(1

*)7(* *).6(6

))(.1

),.(*1

*.-8an-*4

1

1 *)4*(7

)),(*1

)*,(41

*-8an-*4

*.1)(, *.5(1

1

)5,(51

)*5(6

*4-8an-*4

1 *.16(

*),)(7 *)4(1

)5,(*1

),.(5

*1-8an-*4

1 *.).(6

1

)6.(1

)4

*)-8an-*4

1

*)5 *),,(.

)5(71

)7(61

*5-8an-*4

*.1

1

))6(

),6(7

,.-8an-*4

*.44(*

*)4*

))7(61

),,(1

,*-8an-*4

*.56(6 *.65(.

*)16() *)41(5

)5)(51

),(,1

,,-8an-*4

1

1 *)15(.

)55(5

)*()1

,-8an-*4

*.57(*

1

)57(4

),5(4


0

A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS *.15(7

*),*(7

,4-8an-*4

1 *.*.(.

1 *174(1

)5(71

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)41(,1

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1

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11)(.1

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754(51

1

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1(1

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766(1

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146(71

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)1.(11

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16(711

*6-'e"-*4

1 *..()

1 *.*1(

1 *1.6()

*15,(15 *1)5()5

)).(11



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1 *..6(4

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)11(.4

1*(4

5


A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS *.,4(5

*.*(7.

)11(*,6

,*-'e"-*4

1

5

*1.(* *1*.(5

*116(7 *114(1,

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)5.(6

 )14(6))

15(1

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5 117(.16

,6-'e"-*4

*.4(5 *.,7()

6

*1*(5

6 *17(47

))5(1

5

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 11)(,6*

-%ar-*4

1

*.**(1 *.*,(

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 *1()*

)5.(41

)14()

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114(511 114(.6)

1-%ar-*4

1 **()

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15*(4

A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS 6

1

 *1)7(,4

5 )6,(61

16(*,*

,*-%ar-*4

**77 **75(7

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6 *511(*,

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5 )61(*)6

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5

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5,)(15

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A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS *,*,(65

*717(5

*564(,,

*)-Apr-*4

*,,,(

6 *,*7(

1

1 *577(6,

5,1(,1

5,6(14 5.(*4

515(41

)7,(, )76(5*)

*5-Apr-*4

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1 *,,1(46

,.*5(6

6 *6*)(4.

5*6(11

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5,)(1

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A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS *4 *1-%a&-

1

 *,55()

1

*4 *)-%a&-

*7(*

5 *,64(1.

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65(4 65)(11)


 ,.4)(1

5 576(54

51(75*

A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS *46*(,

6 *4.,()*

1 ,))4(5

 ,4,)(46

5 656(6.

56(1)

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5 565(.,*

666(71

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66.(1

651(


A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS *44*(11

,)7*(7

,)11(

6,.(676

65()1

-8l-*4

*41*(5 *4),(4



1 ,)77(.



65(,

 6,(*,)

65)(.1

 65*(..)

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56(5

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61(1 6,7(51

5 6.(.,1

6)*(11 6))(*

5 647(,)*


A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS *467(1

*44(51

1 ,45.(7

, ,16)(6,

.-8l-*4

1

6 *4)(1*

1 ,47(5

5 ,16.(,*

66(51

 6,7(51)

66)(,

647()

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, *46()5

1

 ,154()1

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65.()1

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61*(5 61(716

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1

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5 6,7(5)6

A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS ,1-Ag-

*1*4(

*45,(4

,45.(51

*4 ,)-Ag-

1 *1*.(.

 *455(16

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671(5

5

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6,1(54 6,)(4**

67.(7

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65.(61

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1

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657(*.1 66.(1)

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A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS *4 *7-Sep-

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A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS *(***. *4

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41

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A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS , -

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A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS 4(5,, *4

44

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6(,5*.

A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS (.1,.

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A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS 7 ,)-Ag-

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A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS *4 *1-Sep-

67 )5()1

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A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS (1,7

4(6165

)().*

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7)

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A STUDY ON EQUITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED BANKING STOCKS *4 *.-Nov-

11 6,(,*

61 66(64,

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54 67())5

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BIBILO7RAPHY

Books •

•

•

-ouse. IFIM COLLEGE, BANGALORE 108

A Study on equity analysis of selected banking stocks

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