Indirect method
7,342 mln
₽
Syrup mixer №1 Gross Book Value
1,39 Total trend factor
Average Xrate
1,17
Year
2012Q4
Average xrate – EUR
40,23
Average xrate – USD
30,37
10,181 mln
1,18 Price trend Factor
₽
RCN indirect value
Date
2012Q4
Price trend index (Italy)
107,5
RCN indirect value Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q4 2012
Year
2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2 2006Q2 2007Q2 2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4
Average xrate – EUR Average xrate – USD xrate trend factor -eur
25,99 26,13 29,69 34,68 35,82 35,16 34,11 35,03 36,45 44,20 40,22 40,90 39,86 40,23 Euro area (18 countries) 85,61 89,88 88,71 89,05 90,42 89 91,26 94,83 101,72 97,65 99,17 106,49 107,47 108,48 112,09
28,13 29,18 31,36 30,67 28,81 28,31 27,14 25,55 24,87 31,77 30,38 29,39 31,11 30,37
France
Italy
86,37 91,17 90,87 91,4 92,6 91,3 92,83 95,97 104,63 100,83 99 107 107,87 107,23 109,47
83,97 86,41 87,41 89,79 90,49 90,06 91,42 91,98 102,97 102,01 99,87 103,32 105,06 106,31 107,5
1,55 1,54 1,35 1,16 1,12 1,14 1,18 1,15 1,10 0,91 1,00 0,98 1,01 1,00
Germany
88,63 90,82 93,9 100,8 94,88 98,87 107,57 108,87 109,5 113
Euro area (18 countries) CAG
95,8 96,81 98,12 98,07 98,04 98,15 98,36 98,49 98,87 99,76 99,92 100,67 101,06 102,3 102,3
xrate trend factor USD 1,08 1,04 0,97 0,99 1,05 1,07 1,12 1,19 1,22 0,96 1,00 1,03 0,98 1,00
USA
Russia
82,34 176,5
183,7
101,56 101,24
Asset Name
X R A T E S
F A C T O R T R E N D P R I C E
Gross book value, as of reporting xrate trend factor price trend factor final trend factor date
RCN indirect
Syrup mixer #1
7 342 045
1,18
1,18
1,39
10 180 790
Syrup mixer #2
5 283 452
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Interim storage tank #1
4 922 904
1,14
1,20
1,37
6 752 853
Interim storage tank #2
5 831 277
1,00
1,11
1,11
6 450 047
Interim storage tank #3
3 117 450
1,35
1,20
1,63
5 088 606
Vial filling line #1
8 600 000
1,16
1,20
1,39
11 943 001
Vial filling line #2
12 000 000
1,15
1,12
1,29
15 448 903
Vial filling line #3
10 000 000
1,15
1,12
1,29
12 874 086
Packaging robot combined with palletizer
7 500 000
1,00
1,04
1,04
7 804 973
CIP washer
3 000 000
1,18
1,18
1,39
4 159 927
Technological pumps
1 245 000
1,15
1,17
1,34
1 671 025
Technological piping
1 000 000
1,15
1,04
1,19
1 192 839
Water preparation
1 475 003
1,00
1,23
1,23
1 813 586
Electricalnetworks
2 000 000
1,14
1,04
1,19
2 384 827
Monitoring and testing equipment
2 000 000
1,15
1,20
1,38
2 764 021
Storage racks
5 000 000
1,14
1,04
1,19
5 962 068
Lift trucks
3 000 000
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Direct method – cost-to-capacity, replacement vs. reproduction considerations and adjustments Syrup mixer #2 #2 ,5 0,66 ) 3
Vial filling lines
× (
VFL#2
I&CC
VFL#3
9 026 551
12 874 086 Piping, electrical networks, monitoring and testing equipment RCN for the core equipment 85 986 638
12% 10 318 397
7% 8 598 664
10% 6 019 065
7%
11 972 900
3%
12 332 087
13 619 496
Direct method – cost-to-capacity, replacement vs. reproduction considerations and adjustments Interim storage tanks IST
2 6 450 047
3t
4 367 274
0,36
5 615 067
0,36
5 615 067
,
7 798 704
4t
2
0,28
4t
15 597 408
General Age/Life
Syrup mixer #1 Syrup mixer #2 Interim storage tank #1 Interim storage tank #2 Interim storage tank #3 Vial filling line #1 Vial filling line #2 Vial filling line #3 Packaging robot combined with palletizer CIP washer Technological pumps Technological piping Water preparation Electrical networks Monitoring and testing equipment Storage racks Lift trucks
Date On
NUL
RUL
2006 1988 2005 2010 2002 2003 2007 2007 2010 2006 2007 2007 2008 2005 2007 2005 various
15 15 25 25 25 22 22 22 12 12 12 10 12 15 7 10 10
9 -9 18 23 15 13 17 17 10 6 7 5 8 8 2 3 -
RUL(manual) RUL final 3
-
9 3 18 23 15 13 17 17 10 6 7 5 8 8 2 3 -
Physical depreciation 40% 80% 28% 8% 40% 41% 23% 23% 17% 50% 67% 50% 33% 47% 71% 70%
Determining depreciation Syrup mixer #1
RCN of new mixer 10 180 790
VFL #1 Annual changeover loss
400 000
Discount rate
15%
Remaining useful life
4
New mixer device cost 1 400 000 8 780 790
Technological pumps
loss
2013
2014
2015
2016
400 000
400 000
400 000
400 000
(%) = ^ (/)
DR
15%
15%
15%
15%
ℎ = 1 −
DF
0.870
0.756
0.658
0.572
347 826
302 457
263 006
228 701
= ∗
MV
1 119 235
Loss
Accumulated loss
1 141 991
Market Approach
Price (excl.VAT), rubles
Specification of the model 800000 700000
Linear R 2=0,35
Exp-model R 2=0,30
y = -33261x + 740683 R² = 0,353
600000 500000 400000
Box-Cox test: H0 isn’t rejected => models are equal => choose with max R 2
300000 200000 100000 0 0
Regression Observations:
Linear - model 20
R 2
0,3
Model
Y=-33261*x+740683
2
4
6
8
10
12
Asset name
lifting capacity
Height
Year of manufacturing
Age
Price
ETV 213 #1
1 300
3 000
2005
7
507 856
ETV 213 #2
1 300
3 000
2007
5
574 378
ETV 213 #3
1 300
3 000
2008
4
607 639
ETV 213 #4
1 300 3 000 2009 TOTAL PRICE FOR 4 ETV 2 330 773
3
640 900
Final Estimations
Asset Name
Syrup mixer #1 Syrup mixer #2 Interim storage tank #1 Interim storage tank #2 Interim storage tank #3 Vial filling line #1 Vial filling line #2 Vial filling line #3 Packaging robot combined with palletizer CIP washer Technological pumps Technological piping Water preparation Electric al networks Monitoring and testing equipment Storage racks Lift trucks
Physical depreciation "direct dollar"
Physical depreciation percentage
-1 400 000
40% 80% 28% 8% 40% 41% 23% 23%
Functional obsolescence "direct dollar"
Market value – Cost approach (before economic obsolescence) 5 268 474 1 805 310 3 144 438 5 165 862 3 369 040 6 372 596 10 487 012 10 487 012
RCN indirect
RCN direct
RCN final
10 180 790 n/a 6 752 853 6 450 047 5 088 606 11 943 001 15 448 903 12 874 086
9 026 551 4 367 274 5 615 067 5 615 067 13 619 496 13 619 496
10 180 790 9 026 551 4 367 274 5 615 067 5 615 067 11 943 001 13 619 496 13 619 496
7 804 973
-
7 804 973
17%
6 478 127
4 159 927 1 671 025 1 192 839 1 813 586 2 384 827
10 318 397 8 598 664
4 159 927 1 671 025 10 318 397 1 813 586 2 384 827
50% 67% 50% 33% 47%
2 079 963 551 438 5 159 198 1 215 103 1 263 958
2 764 021
6 019 065
6 019 065
71%
1 745 529
5 962 068 n/a
-
5 962 068 -
70% -
1 788 620 2 330 773
Total M&E 68 712 453
1 141 991
Current Assets Obsolete
Not Included!
Raw Materials
Finished Goods
22 080 000
34 155 000
Book Value
Uncollectible AR
35 000 000
10 000 000
Book Value
Fair Value
Inventories Fair Value = 56 235 000 RUB
Accounts Receivable Fair Value = 25 000 000 RUB
Cash
80 749 000 RUB
Intangible Assets: Land Rental Agreement With the agreement • • •
• • •
Rental rate = 300 k RUB per month WACC = 20% Tax rate = 20%
Without the agreement •
Differential method • •
DCF2013 = 301,25 k RUB DCF2014 = 273,63 k RUB DCF2015 = 259,91 k RUB
Land rental agreement pre−tax value =
• • •
−
(+)
(+)
Rental rate = 350 k RUB per month WACC = 20% Tax rate = 20%
DCF2013 = 351,46 k RUB DCF2014 = 319,24 k RUB DCF2015 = 303,28 k RUB
= 1 669 664 RUB
Fair Value of the land rental agreement = Land rental agreement pre−tax value *(1 – Tax rate) 1 335 731 RUB
Supply Contract CF = (Total Sales – COGS – Variable SG&A – D&A)*(1-t) +D&A -
NWC
EBIT
Total Sales = P 1*CPI*Q1+P2*CPI*Q2 COGS% of Revenue = 45% Variable SG&A % of Revenue = 5,6% D&A % of Revenue = 12,1%
Current assets = Inventory + Accounts Receivable+0,02*Sales Current Liabilities = Accounts Payable NWC = Current Assets – Current Liabilities NWC/Salesaverage= 52,5%
WACC=15% Tax Rate=20% 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
CF
5420,17
5977,60
6431,57
7370,30
8362,00
8924,39
DCF
4713,19
4519,92
4228,86
4213,99
4157,39
3858,26
FAIR VALUE OF SUPPLY CONTRACT 25 691 620 ₽
Long-Term Liabilities
200 000 000 RUB 10% annually Discount rate: 15% Maturity: 31.12.2013
89 254 000 RUB 9,5% annually Discount rate: 15% Maturity: 31.12.2014
200 000 USD 8,75% annually Discount rate: 8% Maturity: 31.12.2015
DCF2013 = 191 304 348 RUB
DCF2013 = 7 373 157 RUB
DCF2013 = 4 921 502 RUB
DCF2014 = 73 900 287 RUB
DCF2014 = 4 556 927 RUB
Fair Value = 334 497 293 RUB
DCF2015 = 52 441 052 RUB
ACQUISITION PRICE 450 000 000 ₽
FAIR FALUE OF EQUITY 237 016 512 ₽
GOODWILL 212 984 498 ₽
Contribution Vorozhtsov Sergey: M&E valuation, presentation, analytical report Glinskaya Anastasiya: intangible assets valuation, analytical report, presentation Lomparter Elena: inventory valuation, analytical report, presentation Rozhin Alexey: M&E valuation, analytical report, presentation Khafizova Liya: intangible assets valuation, analytical report, presentation
