Project on Indian Banking System

Indian Banking System 201 0

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Indian Economy is driven by strong fundamentals with GDP growth at 9.1% for H1 FY07 – strongest growth in any six months since H1 FY04 and uptrend in Industrial Cycle with Average Index of Industrial Production growth at 10.2% being the strongest run in the past 11 years. On political front, the Indian Government has signed nuclear deal with America indicating India’ India’ss import importance ance in the global global context context openin opening g up many many opportu opportunit nities ies.. Along Along with with this, this, Chinese President Hu is expected to visit India. This will improve trade and other ties between two of the fastest growing economies. In Capital Market, Strong foreign inflows with Portfolio flows of nearby USD 9.2bn took BSE Sensex to 14,000 + (50% higher) compared compared to FY 05-06. The Indian corporate raised raised USD 6bn by issuing Initial public offer in India and abroad. High Credit growth at 30%, it continued the trend of last 5 years where it has averaged around 25% and lastly M&A activity which was at its peak with sectors beyond IT and Pharma making global & domestic acquisitions.

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The high growth sectors are Power where power ministry and local private players announce 9 ultra mega projects (4,000 MW each) provides visibility on power & infra front.

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Retail - a Point of inflection with major Indian corporate announcing plans, entry of world majors like Wal-Mart & foreign investment allowed in single brand retail and Real Estate with major huge build-out plans and Special Economic Zone policy of government is major driver of growth.

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Banking in which Banks are allowed to raise hybrid capital which opens new avenues for funding credit growth.

As such, the report focus on change factors in Banking Industry as this industry is expected to have major impact on Indian Economy.

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INTRODUCTI ON

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INTRODUCTION In India, given the relatively underdeveloped capital market and with little internal resources, firms and economic entities depend, largely, on financial intermediaries to meet their fund requirements. In terms of supply of credit, financial intermediaries can broadly be categorized as institutional and non-institutional. The major institutional suppliers of credit in India are banks and non-bank financial institutions (that is, development financial institutions or DFIs), other financial institutions (FIs), and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs). The non-institutional or unorganized sources of credit include indigenous bankers and money-lenders. Information about the unorganized sector is limited and not readily available.

An important feature of the credit market is its term structure: (a) Short-term credit (b) Medium-term credit (c) Long-term credit.

While banks and NBFCs predominantly cater for short-term needs, FIs provide mostly medium and long-term funds.

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REVIEW OF LITERATURE http://indiapost.com/article/techbiz/1038/ IA Bank ties up with SBI for money transfers Sunday, 09.23.2007, 11:59pm (GMT-7) NEW JERSEY: Indus American Bank has tied up with State Bank of India to offer money

transfer services to India for its clients. Under the new money transfer service, which will provide expanded services to Indus American Bank customers can expect service at over 14,000 branch locations of State Bank of India within India, and at over 14,000 additional RTGS participating banks. Funds remitted from Indus American Bank would reach recipients typically within 24 hours. As the largest bank in India, State Bank of India offers excellent exchange rates which are now available to Indus American Bank customers. India is one of the biggest destinations for foreign remittances. http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre/newsPopup.php? fileR=20070925165003043&dir=2007/09/25&secID=livenews

ICICI Bank allots equity shares

ICICI Bank allotted 17,800 equity shares of face value of Rs 10 each on Sep. 18, 2007 under the employees stock option sceme, 2000 (ESOS).ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK) was promoted in 1994 by ICICI, an Indian development financial institution. The two entities subsequently merged to become the largest commercial bank in the private sector.

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Indian Banking System 201 0 Shares of the company gained Rs 7.75, or 1.38%, to settle at Rs 569.9. The total volume of shares traded was 173,655 at the BSE.(Tuesday)

HDFC Asset Management to launch debt fund on Sept 27 Tue Sep 25, 2007 12:50pm IST

MUMBAI (Reuters) - HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd said on Tuesday that it will launch a close-ended debt fund on Sept. 27. The fund, HDFC FMP 18M September 2007, will be open for subscription till Oct. 8. It will invest at least 60 percent of the assets in debt and money market instruments and the rest in government securities, the fund house said. HDFC to cut interest rates Economic Times, India - Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:14pm IST

Mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corp is likely to cut its interest rates next week, the Economic Times reported on Saturday. Sa turday. "The cost of wholesale funding has come down and we are taking a look at passing on the benefits to borrowers," HDFC Chairman Deepak Parekh was quoted as saying. The report also quoted HDFC Managing Director Keki Mistry as saying the company was looking at a half percentage point cut and that the new rates would be announced next week.

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OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 

Today’s banking sector play a dominant role regarding investment decision. It basically tells tells about how these funds are effectivel effectively y and efficiently efficiently utilized in order to maximize maximize profits.

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To study the growth and performance of banking company.

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To find out what are the policies that we have to be adopted to increase the goodwill of the company.

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To provide suggestions for better functioning of business.

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To know about the various loan schemes of these two banking companies i.e. ICICI & SBI.

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SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY 

To make a detailed study of various financial services provide by the different banks.

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To analyze customers view point regarding their banks.

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To study effective and most popular bank among the customers regarding its services.

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To find out the rate of interest of banks and reaction of customers on it.

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To make analysis on the economic benefits provided by various banks.

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Suggest the investors whether to invest in shares of Banking Companies.

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CONCEPTUALIZATION

The last decade has seen many positive developments in the Indian banking sector. The policy makers, which comprise the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Ministry of Finance and related government and financial sector regulatory entities, have made several notable efforts to improve regulation in the sector. The sector now compares favourably with banking sectors in the region on metrics like growth, profitability and non-performing assets (NPAs). A few banks have establ establish ished ed an outsta outstandi nding ng track track record record of innovat innovation ion,, growth growth and value value creati creation. on. This This is reflected reflected in their market valuation. valuation. However, However, improved improved regulation regulations, s, innovation, innovation, growth and value creation in the sector remain limited to a small part of it. The cost of banking intermediation in India is higher and bank penetration is far lower than in other markets. India’s banking industry must strengthen itself significantly if it has to suppo rt the modern and vibrant economy which India aspires to be. While the onus for this change lies mainly with bank managements, an enabling policy and regulatory framework will also be critical to their success. The failure to respond to changing market realities has stunted the development of the financial sector in many developing countries. A weak banking structure has been unable to fuel continued growth, which has harmed the long-term health of their economies. In this “white paper”, we emphasize the need to act both decisively and quickly to build an enabling, rather than a limiting, banking sector in India

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FOCUS OF THE PROBLEM The resear research ch report report concent concentrat rates es on macro macro and micro micro factor factorss affect affecting ing Bankin Banking g Indust Industry ry,, Evolution of Banking Industry and its current status. Various regulatory and reform processes also affect banking industry. The report also throws a light on them. The report finally ends with valuation of major players in banking Industry and the major challenges faced by this industry.

1. Bank Bankin ing g Cha Chall llen enge gess

It is expected that the Indian banking and finance system will be globally competitive. For this the market players will have to be financially strong and operationally efficient. Capital would be a key factor in building a successful institution. The banking and finance system will improve competitive competitiveness ness through through a process process of consolidati consolidation, on, either either through through mergers mergers and acquisitio acquisitions ns through strategic alliances. Technology would be the key to the competitiveness of banking and fina financ ncee syst system em.. Indi Indian an play player erss will will keep keep pace pace with with globa globall lead leader erss in the the use use of banki banking ng technology. In such a scenario, on-line accessibility will be available to the customers from any part of the globe; ‘Anywhere’ and ‘Anytime’ banking will be realized truly and fully. In this context, the research paper approached “Indian Banking System” as the shape of the banking sector will be the result of a strong interplay between the decisions taken by policy makers and actions of bank managements. 17


2. Banking Banking Evolu Evolution tion & Regula Regulatory tory Framew Framework ork

Financial Sector Reforms set in motion in 1991 have greatly changed the face of Indian Banking. The banking industry has moved gradually from a regulated environment to a deregulated market economy. The market developments kindled by liberalization and globalization have resulted in chan changes ges in the the inte interm rmed edia iati tion on role role of banks banks.. Th Thee pace pace of tran transf sfor orma mati tion on has has been been more more significant in recent times with technology acting as a catalyst. While the banking system has done fairly well in adjusting to the new market dynamics, greater challenges challenges lie ahead. Financial Financial sector sector would be opened up for greater international international competition competition under WTO. Banks will have to gear up to meet stringent prudential capital adequacy norms under Basel II. In addition to WTO and Basel II, the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) such as with Singapore, may have an impact on the shape of the banking industry. Banks will also have to cope with challenges posed by technological innovations in banking. Banks need to prepare for the changes. In this context the need for drawing up a Road Map to the future assumes relevance. The last decade has seen many positive developments developments in the Indian Indian Banking Banking Sector. Sector. The policy policy makers, which comprise the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Ministry of Finance and related government and financial sector regulatory entities, have made several notable efforts to improve regulation in the sector. The sector now compares favorably with banking sectors in the region on metrics like growth, profitability and non-performing assets (NPAs). A few banks have established an outstanding track record of innovation, growth and value creation. This is reflected in their market valuation. However, improved regulations, innovation, growth and value creation in the sector remain limited to a small part of it. The cost of banking intermediation in India is higher and bank

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Indian Banking System 201 0 penetration is far lower than in other markets. India’s banking industry must strengthen itself significantly, if it has to support the modern and vibrant economy which India aspires to be, while the onus for this change lies mainly with bank managements, and enabling policy and regulatory framework will also be critical to their success.

3. Internal Internal Hindran Hindrances ces to to Bankin Banking g Indust Industry ry

The research focuses on emphasizing the need of decisively and quickly to build and enabling, rather than a limiting, banking sector in India. The major challenges ahead for bank management are as follows: 

First, First, cost management, management, a key to sustainabi sustainability lity of bank profits profits as well as their long-term viability.

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Second, recovery management, which is a key to the stability of the banking sector.

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Third, technological intensity of banking, an area where India happens to be a world leader in information technology, but its usage by our banking system is somewhat muted. It is wise for Indian banks to exploit this globally state-of-art expertise, domestically available, to their fullest advantage.

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Fourth, Fourth, risk management, management, Banks can, on their part, formulate formulate ‘early ‘early warning warning indicators indicators’’ suited to their own requirements, business profile and risk appetite in order to better monitor and manage risks.

Fifth, Fifth, governance governance because the quality quality of corporate corporate governance in the banks becomes critical as compet competiti ition on intens intensifi ifies, es, banks banks strive strive to retain retain their their client client base, base, and regula regulator torss move move out of controls and micro-regulation.

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LIMITATION OF THE STUDY 

The scope of the study will be restricted to selected Banks.

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Many of the respondents did not think hard enough while choosing the specific point. This could have led to a biased view and thus affected the analysis.

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There may be other events during the Clean and Window Period which may distort the results.

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RESEARCH METHODOLO GY

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Problem Definition:

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Indian Banking System 201 0 To determine and analyze the hidden potential in Banking sector in India so as to suggest the investors whether to invest in shares of Banking Companies.

Objective:

Discover insights into and develop an understanding of the various Macro and Micro Economic Factors that have bearing on the functioning of the Banking sector. Evaluate the performance of some of the banks based on the past data and forecast the future prospects.

Valuation :

The project involves valuation of major Indian Banks including ICICI Bank, SBI and HDFC Bank. The methodology followed is Target Pricing, which includes estimating growth rate by regression on historical sales to forecast next year sales, earning and Profit and Loss account. Then EPS is calculated which is multiplied to Historical P/E to forecast intrinsic value of share.

Result:

All shares are undervalued and expected to give positive risk adjusted returns to investors. Since the intrinsic value is more than current market price for all the companies, the share can be recommended to conservative investors.

RESEARCH DESIGN

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Indian Banking System 201 0 Exploratory Research Design because the problem required an in-depth study of all the related variables. Past information and forecasts:

Collec Collected ted the past past inform informati ation on in the form form of detail detailss of the variou variouss accoun accountin ting g statem statement entss (Income Statement, Balance Sheet etc.), including the sales for the past 10 years (1997-2006). Forecasts are done in relation to the future performance in terms of sales for HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and SBI. Other forecasts include the EPS calculation and comparison of forecasted Future Target Price with the Current Market Price. Once the information was collected, the next step was to search for resources and constraints with respect to the area of research.

Resources and Constraints: Resources:

Various Publications like 

AT Kearney Report, 2005

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FICCI Survey on status of Indian Banking Industry Indu stry – Progress and Agenda Ahead

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Indian Banks Association, Various Years, Performance Highlights of Banks (Mumbai).

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Reserve Bank of India, 2005, 20 05, “Annual Policy Statement for the year 2005-06” (Mumbai).

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Company Reports

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Indian Banking System 201 0 Constraints: 

Lack of time availability with the people involved in any manner with the research especially when decisions were to be made quickly.

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Difficulty in application of Statistical Tools.

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Difficulty in making accurate forecasts because of presence of Economic impediments like inflation, RBI policies etc.

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SAMPLING: DESIGN AND PROCEDURE:

Sampling Technique:

Non-Probability y sampling sampling by taking the three three banks as “Convenience Sampling” as a part of Non-Probabilit the the majo majorr perf perfor orme mers rs in the the Indi Indian an Banki Banking ng Sect Sector or and and high highli light ghter erss of sect sector or’s ’s overa overall ll performance. Sample Size:

Sample Size was restricted to 3, including ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and State Bank of India. Executing the Sampling Process:

Through making a comparison among the various key figures of sales, profits and accounting ratios deduced from accounting statements.

Method of Data Collection:

Secondary Secondary Data is collected collected to carry out the study. To review review the literature literature available regarding regarding the subject; various journals, magazines, related research papers a nd Internet would be used

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INDIAN ECONOMY

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INDIAN ECONOMY-MACRO FACTORS AFFECTING INDIAN BANKING Major Changes in FY 2006-07 

Robust economic growth in FY07. GDP is increased by over 8% in FY07; Agriculture, industry and services to grow at 1.7%, 10.5% 10 .5% and 10.7% respectively

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Rabi season experiences normal monsoon

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IIP (Index of Industrial Production) growth dips in October 2006. The poor performance of the manufacturing sector, which forms 80% of the IIP index lead to a blip in its robust growth trend for the past 9 months. Both mining and electricity grew faster than last year at 4% and 9.7% Vs – 0.1% and 7.7% respectively

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WPI (Wholesale Price Index) rose to 5.43% for the week ending December 16; higher inflation in primary commodities remains. The inflation in the coming weeks may remain high due to lower base effect.

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CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) hike of 50 bps to absorb Rs.135bn from the system. The CRR rate hike of 50bps came as a surprise but it reflects that RBI’s intention of controlling credit off-take and liquidity management by raising repo and reverse repo rate could not achieve the desired results due to which RBI used CRR rate hike – a new instrument to control liquidity

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Exports growth back on track in November 2006. On the basis of the BoP, in H1FY06 exports grew at 23%, imports at 25.3% resulting in the trade balance of US$35bn. Net invisibles grew by 17.6% to US$23.5bn and capital inflows (in the form of FDI, NRI deposits and ECB) at US$20.3bn (a yoy growth of 49%) brought the balance of payment to US$8.6bn, (a yoy growth of 33%).

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Rupee appreciates further against dollar and yen but continues to depreciate against Euro and pound on an YTD basis as on December 2006. In real terms, from April 2006 to October 2006, the rupee appreciated by 1.8% vis-à-vis a basket of six currencies. 28


The Indian Economy has seen major Macro changes in:

1. Gr Gross oss Domest Domestic ic Produ Product ct::

The Indian Economy is driven by the strong fundamentals and uptrend in industrial cycle. The Indian economy maintained a strong growth momentum for the third successive year in 2005-06 with real GDP growth accelerating to 8.4% 2005-06. The services sector recorded double digit growth to contribute nearly three-fourths of incremental GDP. A consistent increase in domestic investment rate from 23.0% of GDP in 2001-02 to 30.1% in 2004-05 supported a high credit growth witnessed during the past few years. The manufacturing sector – the key growth driver for banking credit, clocked a healthy growth of 9.0% during FY06.

Source: www.rbi.org.in In FY 06-07, services sector account for major 55% of India GDP followed by 25% in Industrial sector and 20% in agriculture sector. FY07 Vs Q2FY06, the growth rate in GDP components are as follows:

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Indian Banking System 201 0 Agriculture: 1.7% Industry: 10.5% Service: 10.7 2. FDI FDI Conf Confid iden ence ce Ind Index ex::

Relaxation of foreign direct investment rules has expanded the mountain of capital in every sector of Indian economy. The government is making efforts in liberalizing the guidelines and norms for investment through FDI, making them more NRI friendly. Mainly due to efforts taken by Indian Government, Indian rank 2nd among all countries in the world on FDI Confidence Index.

Source: AT Kearney Report, 2005

3. Inflation:

Inflat Inflation ion remain remained ed largel largely y benevol benevolent ent due to invest investmen mentt driven driven nature nature of growth growth and subs subsid idiz ized ed natu nature re of oil oil pric prices es as pass pass-o -on n of inte intern rnat atio iona nall crude crude pric pricee rise rise rema remain ined ed incomplete in India. WPI Inflation has risen to 5.45% for the week ended November 18, 2006 after remaining in the range of 4.0-5.0% earlier. RBI has repeatedly cautioned that maintaining inflation in the target range may call for substantial monetary tightening should crude prices persist at high level. The money supply has grown by 18.7% yoy till November

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Indian Banking System 201 0 10, 2006 during the current fiscal, which poses a significant threat to RBI’s efforts of containing inflation in the desired range of 5.0-5.5%.

4. Gross Fiscal Deficit:

The gross fiscal deficit (GFD) to GDP ratio for 2005-06 was at 4.1 per cent as against the budget estimate of 4.3 per cent. Fiscal and revenue deficit for April-November 2006 widened to 72.8% of BE and 99.7% of BE Vs 74.7% of BE and 91.5% of BE respectively in April November 2005. The current levels are much higher than the last month’s fiscal deficit of 58.6% 58.6% of BE and reve revenu nuee defic deficit it of79 of79.4% .4% of BE. BE. Th Thee impr improve oveme ment nt in the the GFD GFD was was facilitated by a decline in capital outlay and the availability of disinvestment proceeds. The revenue deficit, though lower in absolute terms, remained at budgeted level of 2.7 per cent of GDP in 2005-06.

Source: RBI, Ministry of commerce and Industry

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5. Interest Rate:

Thee yiel Th yield d on date dated d gove govern rnme ment nt secu securi riti ties es (G-S (G-Sec ec)) has has been been movi moving ng up sinc sincee the the beginning of FY05. The yield on 10 year paper began during Q1 to close the quarter at 8.12%. During July 06, it continue to move up to 8.42% but reacted sharply thereafter to once again come down to 7.4% at present as the market participants believed that US Fed and other central banks worldwide would not only pause rate hikes but soon get into rate the current fiscal at 7.50% but

moved up quite sharply cut mode.

Source: RBI Real interest rate indicated by spread between inflation and 10 year benchmark yield has trended in the range of 2-4%. The real interest rate in developed economies is normally in the range of 2-

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Indian Banking System 201 0 3%. Howeve However, r, the margin marginal al produc productiv tivity ity of capita capitall being being much much higher higher in the develop developing ing economy like India. Due to this, real interest should be higher than those prevailing in more matured economies.

6. Rising Oil prices and Exchange Rate:

World over, the central bankers led by US Federal Reserves embarked on withdrawal of monetary accommodation through a series of rate hikes as the rising oil and asset prices threatened the global economies with inflationary pressures. The US Fed, which embarked on an aggressive rate hike campaign through 17 consecutive rate hikes of the magnitude of 25 bps, several economies including Euro-zone and Japan hiked their key policy rates. In response to the same, RBI has hiked the key policy Repo and Reverse Repo rates five times over the past two years. This has led to a significant hardening of interest rates over the past 4-5 quarters, which has adversely impacted the cost of funds for banks. 7. Capital Market:

Financial markets in India and globally have seen little volatility over the last few Years. There have been only two spikes in India – in April 2004 when the UPA government came to power and in May 2006. In India, stock markets will be the most impacted by negative news flows as other areas where shocks can be absorbed such as the currency, interest rate and corporate bond markets are not free or well developed. The Capital Market has seen balance sheet value being unlocked through monetization of embedded assets, demergers, IPOs, etc. Indian companies continue to build value in the balance sheet as newer opportunities emerge through smart capex, inorganic growth and extracting value thru the revenue statement.

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INDIAN BANKING INDUSTRY 34


INDIAN BANKING INDUSTRY In India, given the relatively underdeveloped capital market and with little internal resources, firms and economic entities depend, largely, on financial intermediaries to meet their fund requirements. In terms of supply of credit, financial intermediaries can broadly be categorized as institutional and non-institutional. The major institutional suppliers of credit in India are banks and non-bank financial institutions (that is, development financial institutions or DFIs), other financial institutions (FIs), and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs). The non-institutional or unorganized sources of credit include indigenous bankers and money-lenders. Information about the unorganized sector is limited and not readily available.

An important feature of the credit market is its term structure: (a) Short-term credit (b) Medium-term credit (c) Long-term credit.

While banks and NBFCs predominantly cater for short-term needs, FIs provide mostly medium and long-term funds.

Need for Banks

Role of Bank 35


Channel household savings

Risk Transformation

Service Provider

Indian Banking Sector Experience India inherited a weak financial system after Independence in 1947. At end-1947, there were 625 commercial banks in India, with an asset base of Rs. 11.51 billion. Commercial banks mobilized household savings through demand and term deposits, and disbursed credit primarily to large corporations. Following Independence, the development of rural India was given the highest priority. The commercial banks of the country including the IBI had till then confined their operations to the urban sector and were not equipped to respond to the emergent needs of economic regeneration of the rural areas. In order to serve the economy in general and the rural sector in particular, the All India Rural Credit Survey Committee recommended the creation of a state-partnered and state-sponsored bank by taking over the IBI, and integrating with it, the former state-owned or state-associate banks. Accordingly, an act was passed in Parliament in May 1955, and the State Bank of India (SBI) was constituted on July 1, 1955. More than a quarter of the resources of the Indian banking system thus passed under the direct control of the State. Subsequently in 1959, the State Bank of India (Subsidiary Bank) Act was passed (SBI Act), enabling the SBI to take over 8 former State-associate banks as its subsidiaries (later named Associates).

The GoI also felt the need to bring about wider diffusion of banking facilities and to change the uneven uneven distri distribut bution ion of bank lending. lending. The propor proportio tion n of credit credit going to indust industry ry and trade trade increased from a high 83% in 1951 to 90% in 1968. This increase was at the expense of some crucial segment of the economy like agriculture and the small-scale industrial sector. Bank failures and mergers resulted in a decline in number of banks from 648 (including 97 scheduled 36

Indian Banking System 201 0 commercial banks or SCBs and 551 non-SCBs) in 1947 to 89 in 1969 (comprising 73 SCBs and 16 non-SCBs). The lop-sided pattern of credit disbursal, and perhaps the spate of bank failures during the sixties, forced the government to resort to nationalization of banks. In July 1969, the GoI nationalized 14 scheduled commercial banks (SCBs), each having minimum aggregate deposits of Rs. 500 million. State-control was considered as a necessary catalyst for economic growth and ensuring an even distribution of banking facilities. Subsequently, in 1980, the GoI nationalised another 6 banks2, each having deposits of Rs. 2,000 million and above.

The nation nationali alizati zation on of banks banks was the culmin culminati ation on of pressu pressures res to use the banks as public public instruments of development. The GoI imposed `social control’ on banks. However, by the 1980s, it was generally perceived that the operational efficiency of banks was declining. Banks were characterized by low profitability, high and growing non-performing assets (NPAs), and low capital base. Average returns on assets were only around 0.15% in the second half of the 1980s, and capital aggregated an estimated 1.5% of assets. Poor internal controls and the lack of proper disclosure norms led to many problems being kept under cover. The quality of customer service service did not keep pace with the increasing expectations. In 1991, a fresh era in Indian banking began, with the introduction of banking sector reforms as part of the overall economic liberalization in India.

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INDIAN FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR SWOT ANALYSIS

Strengths:  

Proven asset quality resilience in past downturns Proven management teams, track record

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Stable industry dynamics

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Well-established regulatory framework

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Stable/low NPL formation rates

Weaknesses: 

Continued crowding out effect from govt budget deficit, combined with accelerating private sector credit demands

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Ownership restrictions

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Constraints on state-owned banks' micro reforms, including HR, staff cut, branch cut constraints 38

Indian Banking System 201 0 Opportunities: 

Improving secular GDP growth prospects

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Establishment of special economic zones likely to promote further industrialization

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Years, if not decades, of catch-up economics— low per capita income, educated workforce

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Rapid financial deepening, i.e. loan growth as multiple of nominal GDP growth

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Rising consumer spending, consumer credit business

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Rising corporate capex, investments

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M&A optionality

Threats: 

"Running on empty" in terms of liquidity

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Tightening in global liquidity may trickle down to India

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Potentially hawkish RBI stance on inflation/monetary policy

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Potential rise in long bond \ yields, MTM risk for banks ban ks

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Potential for valuation pullback, should earnings delivery disappoint expectations

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STRUCTURE Of 40


banking STRUCTURE OF THE BANKING SECTOR The banking sector in India functions under the umbrella of the RBI—the regulatory, central bank. The Reserve Bank of India Act was passed in 1934 and the RBI was constituted in 1935 as the apex bank. The Banking Regulations Act was passed in 1949. This Act brought the RBI under government control. Under the Act, the RBI received wide-ranging powers in regards to establishment of new banks, mergers and amalgamations of banks, opening and closing of branches branches of banks, maintaining maintaining certain standards standards of banking business, business, inspection inspection of banks, etc. The Act also vested licensing powers and an d the authority to conduct inspections with the RBI. Banks in India can broadly be classified as regional rural banks or RRBs, scheduled commercial banks or SCBs, and co-operative banks. The scope of the report includes the SCBs only3.

The SCBs for the purpose of this comment can be classified into the following three categories: 

Public sector banks or PSBs (SBI & its associates, and nationalized banks);

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Private sector banks (old and new); and

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Foreign banks

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Indian Banking System 201 0 No. of Banks Banks in India for FY 05-06 30

29 20

8

SBI & Asso cia te tes

Na ti tio n a lilised B a nk nk s

Priv a te te B a nk nk s

Fo reign Ba Ba nk nk s

Category of Banks

Source: IBA

Asset Size of Banks for FY 05-06 ('000 crores) 1327

565 198

SBI & Asso cia te tes

201

Na t io na lilised Ba nk nk s

Priva te te B a n k s

Fo reign Ba Ba n k s

Category Category o f Banks

Source : IBA

In terms of asset size, among Foreign banks – Citibank, HSBC and Standard Chartered bank are leaders with asset base base of Rs.45437 cr, Rs.37473 cr and Rs.48412 cr. Resp. Resp. in FY 05-06. Among private sector banks, ICICI Bank is the leader with asset base of Rs.251389 cr followed by HDFC Bank of size Rs.73506 Rs.73506 cr and UTI Bank of size Rs.49731 cr. cr. In terms of asset size, size, public sector banks have highest base compared to private and foreign banks. SBI & Associated

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Indian Banking System 201 0 have asset base of Rs.691872 cr while other banks such as BOB, BOI, Canara Bank and PNB Bank have each more than Rs.100000 cr.

Credit Growth The bank lending has expanded in a number of emerging market economies, especially in Asia and Latin America, in recent years. Bank credit to the private sector, in real terms, was rising at a rate between 10 and 40 per cent in a number of countries by 2005 (BIS, 2006). Several factors have contributed to the significant rise in bank lending in emerging economies such as strong growth, excess liquidity in banking systems reflecting easier global and domestic monetary conditions, and substantial bank restructuring. The recent surge in bank lending has been associated with important changes on the asset side of banks banks balance balance sheet. sheet. First, First, credit credit to the busine business ss sector sector - histor historica ically lly the most most impor importan tantt component of banks assets – has been weak, while the share of the household sector has increased sharply in several countries. Second, banks investments in Government securities increased sharply until 2004-05. As a result, commercial banks continue to hold a very large part of their domestic assets in the form of Government securities - a process that seems to have begun in the mid-1990s

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MICRO FACTORS

MICRO FACTORS AFFECTING INDIAN BANKING INDUSTRY Loan Demand:

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Indian Banking System 201 0 Over the past three years, Indian Banking Industry has seen sustained strength in credit growth, which is not just a function of economic buoyancy but also the broad-basing of loan demand. This has recently been articulated by the central bank too: “A contextual analysis of the co-movement between macroeconomic performance and bank credit in the current phase of the business cycle suggests that factors other than demand may also be at work: financial deepening from a low base; structural shifts in supply elasticity’s; rising efficiency of credit markets; and competitive pressures augmenting the overall supply of credit.” (Reserve Bank of India, Monetary Policy Review, October 2006).

Loan growth sustained for very long

Source: RBI

The slowdown of the mid-1990s hit the banks very hard because corporate, which accounted for a lion’s share of bank credit, went into a less profitable and hence a financial restructuring mode. There was no retail credit then, banks did not focus on Small and Medium Enterprises and farm lending was done grudgingly, under compulsion. Along with the diversification of the pie that

46

Indian Banking System 201 0 keeps the tempo of demand intact, intact, after a long time industry industry has also started started demanding demanding higher levels of credit. In the five years prior to FY05, growth in industrial credit was almost wholly driven driven by infrastructure infrastructure.. There is a perceptibly perceptibly wider participation participation from other segments during FY05 and FY06. If a substantial portion of loan growth gets driven by the banking system taking away market shares from informal sectors – this is clearly happening to farm credit, SMEs and to a limited extent non-mortgage retail – interest rate considerations influencing demand will be relatively low. SMEs and the rural folk have accessed credit from other sources at exorbitant interest rates, and hence banks’ rates going by 200-300bps is not so meaningful. That explains the apparent lack of correlation between rates that have been rising and loan demand.

Rising funding costs with soft lending rates irrational: Plenty of historical evidence of return of pricing power to banks:

Concerns are often expressed about banks’ ability to increase lending rates in the face of competition and government pressure. The reality is that banks, which led the mortgage price war, have increased mortgage rate by 200-300bps from the bottom, and is yet to see significant resistance. That PSU banks raised prime lending rates twice in. Competition from overseas borrowings is a serious factor only with AAA companies, and banks have reduced exposure to them considerably during the last 3-4 years. Government stand is understandably against higher interest rates. However, it is unlikely that the government will be able to influence the course of interest rates single-handedly.

Inflexibility of deposit growth a myth:

With 100-200bps increase in the card rates of deposits, banks have managed to move the deposit growth rate from 15-16% to 19- 20%, on a larger base. In the last five years, household financial 47

Indian Banking System 201 0 savings have moved out of equities and long-term products to bank deposits in percentage terms. The point to note here is that component of cash (currency) has marginally risen – that’s the real, increm increment ental al opportu opportunit nity y as more more cash cash from from chests chests moves moves into into bank bank deposit depositss first first before before potentially going to other avenues. The Q4FY07 is expected to be a period of margin pressure. This is because as the last interestrate cycle showed, deposit costs increase first, and followed by lending rates. Q4 Q 4 is also usually a period of tight liquidity, and the RBI could be increasing CRR or SLR requirements to further tighten the liquidity. Also, banks will be cautious about the actual implementation of the lending rate increases and may do it in a graduated fashion so as not to invite outright resistance or overt attention from the government. HDFC Bank, PNB, SBI and a few others have nevertheless already made a beginning by increasing their prime lending rates after the cash reserve ratio hike by the RBI. However, the fight for deposits has intensified and it is possible that in Q4FY07 banks could be increasing their exposure to high-cost wholesale deposits, taken at higher than card rates.

Banks’ increased risk appetite good for loan yields:

The banks’ lending risk appetite has increased significantly over the last five years – banks veering more towards lending at increasing spreads rather than investing in risk-free bonds. Accordingly, banks are willing to take higher risks, which is good for overall asset yields.

Investment spreads may increase in future:

As long-duration bonds at high interest rates have been coming up for maturity and getting re priced at lower interest rates, yields on investments have been continuously falling over the last few years.

Non – Performing Loans (NPLs): concerns overstated:

Loan growth-NPL 48

Indian Banking System 201 0 The asset price deflation (read real estate prices) may hurting banks’ asset quality has been blown out of proportion.

Residential mortgages:

It is very unlikely in near term that there can be a large-scale increase in delinquencies on loans taken for the first house (typically self-occupied); unless there is a household income problem, it does not matter to the borrower whether the price of the house he is staying in is rising or falling. Even then, with an average loan-to-value of 75%, a 25% fall is theoretically not possible. LTV ratios had gone up to more risky levels at the peak of the mortgage boom. Proble Problems ms can arise arise more more freque frequentl ntly y for loans taken taken for the second second hou house, se, typica typicall lly y for investment/speculation. Banks have been reluctant to disclose the exact volume of second houses financed. Most banks claim that it is in the range of 2-5% of incremental mortgage lending. There is a possibility that some individuals have been hiding from banks the fact that they

already have one more loan, but this is becoming increasingly difficult with a credit bureau now in full swing. Even if the assumption that 10% of the outstanding mortgages are for the second house and all of that goes bad, it will mean 1% of the banking system’s loans go bad. Commercial real estate: According to figures disclosed by the RBI itself, real estate loans constituted 2.0% of gross non-food credit of banks as of end-June 2006. Even if it has been growing at high percentage rates is not material as the base was very low. In any case, by increasing standard assets provisioning on these loans to 100bps from 25bps, risk weights from 100% to 150% and instructing banks not to lend unless the developer dev eloper has “all the permissions.

One stark example of this is the largest bank SBI itself. In the mid 1990s, SBI’s portfolio was distributed between large corporate, farm credit and trade, with little coming from others. The Sep’06 portfolio looks dramatically different.

SBI’s loan portfolio now quite diversified

49


Source: Company data,

Cost of borrowing has risen, but so have incomes:

The apparent disconnect between interest rates rising now for two years and lending not losing steam can be explained by i) rising incomes in case of individuals, thereby imparting increased thrust to retail lending, and ii) improved corporate profitability through better pricing power. While While there are several several studies studies illustrating illustrating the household household income income growth growth in India, according according to National Council for Applied Economic Research, an explosive growth is underway in the perce percenta ntage ge of househol households ds earnin earning g Rs91, Rs91, 000-1,00 000-1,000,0 0,000 00 pa, the most most promin prominent ent indivi individual dual borrowers for banks. Thee corp Th corpor orat atee pric pricin ing g power power stor story y is less less kno known wn becau because se of the the medi mediaa harp harpin ing g on high high competition and margin compression. While these issues cannot be summarily dismissed, it is a fact that manufactured product inflation has been rising. Even the RBI has recently commented on the increased ability of manufacturers to pass on cost increases. And with a considerably deleveraged corporate India compared with the early/mid 1990s, these levels of increases in interest costs have been easily absorbed by companies. co mpanies.

Technology: 50

Indian Banking System 201 0 The trend in banking is changing from computerization of branches to laying a common platform by having a core banking solution in all the branches. At the same time, Indian banks are looking at internet banking which promises to grow into an alternate self-service channel. As the mindset of the Indian customer undergoes a change, Indian banks need to encompass the extension of all the services that are required and dictated by customers. In future, banks will need to focus on value-d value-diff iffere erenti ntiati ating ng servic services es by keeping keeping in-Hou in-Houser ser their their compet competit itive ive advant advantage agess while while partnering with others who complement its services. The emergence of peer-to-peer money transmission mechanisms (such as Western Union Money Transfer) poses a challenge to current role of bankers and emphasizes the role of robust payment systems like RTGS in maintaining and promoting financial stability.

Areas of Improvement:

Few challenges associated with technology adoption by banks are: Indian banks still don’t have the robust systems required for efficient functioning of online banking. RBI has provided guidelines relating to security and other issues and hopefully, online banking will w ill see a surge in the usage from current 1% to at least 10% in the next couple of years. Banks need to explore newer channels such as SMS, WAP and 3G mobile telephony applications to facilitate online access to customers. Banks, in a drive to carry on with tremendous expansion in terms of customer base, needs to have employees who are well informed about products and services and are comfortable with technology which requires extensive training.

Potential Pitfalls:

Banks should not get overwhelmed by the concept of automation and online banking. The banks need to realize that they need to maintain different delivery for different generations. Banks still need to maintain brick-and-mortar locations that people feel comfortable with.

51


VALUATION TOOLS

ICICI Bank: 52

Indian Banking System 201 0 Business

ICICI Bank was promoted in 1994 by ICICI Ltd., an Indian development financial institution. The two entities subsequently merged to become the largest commercial bank in the private sector. A new generation bank, ICICI Bank started with all the latest technologies to hit the Indian banking industry in the second half of the nineties. All its branches are fully computerized with the state-of-the-art technology and systems, networked through VSAT technology. The bank is connected to the SWIFT International International network. In 2005, it expanded its network to to 562 branches and 1,910 ATMs. It continued to expand its electronic channels, namely internet banking, mobile banking, call centers and ATMs, and migrate customer transaction volumes to these channels. Over 70% of customer induced transactions take place through these electronic channels. It has acquired a small Russian banking entity, Investitsionno-Kreditny Investitsionno-Kreditny Bank (IKB), which will help boost its corporate business and deposit d eposit franchise overseas. The bank has also built several strategic alliances with banks like Wells Fargo in USA, Lloyds TSB in UK and DBS in Singapore. 

ICICI has entered into strategic alliance with Prudential plc. of UK for its mutual find business. The duo has been fairly aggressive through their companies, Prudential ICICI Asset Management Company Limited Limited and Prudential ICICI Trust Limited. Limited. The bank is also keen to offer its services to the Indian agricultural sector. Over 2,000 Internet kiosks and 70 agri-desks have been bee n established in locations with large agricultural markets.



Developments

ICICI Bank launched `Mutual Fund Sweep Account` - an automatic au tomatic sweeping facility which allows current account holders to park p ark their short-term surpluses into liquid mutual funds and earn higher returns. Initially, ICICI Bank current account customers will have the facility to invest their account surpluses in the liquid fund schemes of Prudential ICICI Asset Management Company and GIC Mutual Fund. Fund .

53

Indian Banking System 201 0 

The bank is in the process of the reverse merger of ICICI with ICICI Bank. The merger of two wholly-owned subsidiaries of ICICI, ICICI Personal Financial Services Limited and ICICI Capital Services Limited, with ICICI Bank is also und erway.



ICRA has assigned an A1+ rating, indicating highest safety in the short-term, to the Rs 500 crore certificates of deposit (CD) programme of ICICI Bank Ltd (IBL). The rating agency said in its report that the rating takes into consideration IBL`s strategic importance to its parent ICICI, IBL`s comfortable profitability and capital adequacy, good control on asset quality.



ICICI Bank has tied up with MasterCard International to launch ICICI Bank MasterCard credit cards. At present ICICI Bank’s credit card base stands at around 5, 50,000, while for debit cards it is 4,50,000. ICICI Bank is the largest card issuer in the market. The bank is adding credit and debit cards at the rate of 1,00,000 per month. The bank had launched the credit card business 2 years back, while the debit card business is relatively new.

ICICI Bank is India's second-largest bank with total assets of Rs. 3,562.28 billion (US$ 77 billion) billion) at December December 31, 2009 and profit profit after tax Rs. 30.19 billion (US$ 648.8 million) million) for the nine months ended December 31, 2009. The Bank has a network of 1,646 branches and about 4,883 ATMs in India and presence in 18 countries. ICICI Bank offers a wide range of banking products and financial services to corporate and retail customers through a variety of delivery channel channelss and through through its specia specialis lised ed subsid subsidiar iaries ies and affili affiliate atess in the areas areas of invest investmen mentt banking, life and non-life insurance, venture capital and asset management. The Bank currently has subsid subsidiar iaries ies in the United United Kingdom Kingdom,, Russia Russia and Canada, Canada, branche branchess in United United States States,, Singapore, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Qatar and Dubai International Finance Centre and representa representative tive offices offices in United United Arab Emirates, Emirates, China, South Africa, Africa, Bangladesh, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Our UK subsidiary has established branches in Belgium and Germany. ICICI Bank's equity shares are listed in India on Bombay S tock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). 54

Indian Banking System 201 0 HDFC Bank: HDFC Bank Ltd was set up in 1994 by India’s leading housing finance company Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC). The bank offers a wide range of services which can be classi classifi fied ed into into three three catego categorie riess namely namely,, treasu treasury ry,, wholesa wholesale le banking banking and retail retail banking banking services. The bank has a distribution network of 535 (in 228 cities) and 1,323 ATMs and a customer base of 9.6 million as of March 2006. Under Under wholesa wholesale le bankin banking, g, it provid provides es workin working g capital capital financ finance, e, trade trade servic services, es, transa transacti ctional onal services services and cash management. management. Treasury Treasury function includes foreign exchange & derivatives derivatives,, money market securities and equities. Retail loan products are auto loans, personal loans and loans for two-wheelers. It also provides depository participant services for retail customers. It was the first Indian bank which launched an international debit card. With products including the Kisan Gold Card, rural supply chain initiatives and commodity finance covering the entire agriculture financing cycle, the bank’s agriculture lending increased by over 60% during the year. The proportion of NPA`s to total advances increased to 0.4 per cent from 0.3 per cent last year. This marginal increase is because of the changing mix of loans as HDFC Bank has a high share of auto loans. The bank’s focus on semi-urban and under banked markets continued with more than half of its retail loans being given in non-metro markets. The bank’s total capital adequacy ratio (CAR) as on March 31, 2006 stood at 11.41% The authorized capital of HDFC Bank is Rs.450 crore (Rs.4.5 billion). The paid-up capital is Rs.311.9 crore (Rs.3.1 billion). The HDFC Group holds 22.1% of the bank's equity and about 19.4% 19.4% of the the equi equity ty is held held by the the ADS ADS Depo Deposi sito tory ry (in (in resp respec ectt of the the bank' bank'ss Amer Americ ican an Depository Shares (ADS) Issue). Roughly 31.3% of the equity is held by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and the bank has about 190,000 shareholders. The shares are listed on the Stock Exchange, Exchange, Mumbai and the National National Stock Exchange. Exchange. The bank's American Depository Depository Shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol "HDB".

55


Technology: HDFC Bank operates in a highly automated environment in terms of information technology and communication systems. All the bank's branches have online connectivity, which enables the bank bank to offer offer speedy speedy funds funds trans transfer fer facil faciliti ities es to its custom customers ers.. Multi Multi-br -branch anch access access is also also provi provided ded to retail retail custom customers ers throug through h the branch branch networ network k and Automa Automated ted Teller Teller Machin Machines es (ATMs). The Bank has made substantial efforts and investments in acquiring the best technology available intern internati ationa onally lly,, to build build the infras infrastru tructu cture re for a world world class class bank. bank. The Bank's Bank's busine business ss is supported by scalable and robust systems which ensure that our clients always get the finest services we offer. The Bank has prioritised its engagement in technology and the internet as one of its key goals and has already made significant progress in web-enabling its core businesses. In each of its businesses, the Bank has succeeded in leveraging its market position, expertise and technology to create a competitive advantage and build market share.

Business: HDFC Bank offers a wide range of commercial and transactional banking services and treasury products to wholesale and retail customers. The bank has three key business segments: 

Wholesale Banking Services:

The Bank's target market ranges from large, blue-chip manufacturing companies in the Indian corporate to small & mid-sized corporates and agri-based businesses. For these customers, the Bank provides a wide range of commercial and transactional banking services, including working capital finance, trade services, transactional services, cash management, etc. The bank is also a leading provider of structured solutions, which combine cash management services with vendor and distributor finance for facilitating superior supply chain management for its corporate customers.

56


Based on its superior product delivery / service levels and strong customer orientation, the Bank has made significant inroads into the banking consortia of a number of leading Indian corporates including multinationals, companies from the domestic business houses and prime prime public public sector sector companie companies. s. It is recogni recognised sed as a leadin leading g provid provider er of cash cash management and transactional banking solutions to corporate customers, mutual funds, stock exchange members and banks. 

Retail Banking Services:

The objective of the Retail Bank is to provide its target market customers a full range of financial products and banking services, giving the customer a one-stop window for all his/he his/herr bankin banking g requir requireme ements nts.. The produc products ts are backed backed by worldworld-cla class ss servic servicee and deli delive vere red d to cust custom omer erss thro through ugh the the growi growing ng branc branch h netw networ ork, k, as well well as thro through ugh altern alternati ative ve delive delivery ry channel channelss like like ATMs, ATMs, Phone Phone Bankin Banking, g, NetBan NetBankin king g and Mob Mobile ile Banking. The HDFC Bank Preferred program for high net worth individuals, the HDFC Bank Plus and the Investment Advisory Services programs have been designed keeping in mind needs of customers who seek distinct financial solutions, information and advice on various investment avenues. The Bank also has a wide array of retail loan products including Auto Loans, Loans against marketable securities, Personal Loans and Loans for Two-wheelers. It is also a leading provider of Depository Participant (DP) services for retail customers, providing customers the facility to hold their investments in electronic form. HDFC HDFC Bank Bank was was the the firs firstt bank bank in Indi Indiaa to laun launch ch an Inte Intern rnat atio ional nal Debi Debitt Card Card in association with VISA (VISA Electron) and issues the Mastercard Maestro debit card as well. The Bank launched its credit card business in late 2001. By March 2009, the bank had a total card base (debit and credit cards) of over 13 million. The Bank is also one of the leading players in the “merchant acquiring” business with over 70,000 Point-of-sale 57

Indian Banking System 201 0 (POS) terminals for debit / credit cards acceptance at merchant establishments. The Bank is well positioned as a leader in various net based B2C opportunities including a wide range of internet banking services for Fixed Deposits, Loans, Bill Payments, etc.



Treasury

Within this business, the bank has three main product areas - Foreign Exchange and Derivatives, Local Currency Money Market & Debt Securities, and Equities. With the liberalisation of the financial markets in India, corporates need more sophisticated risk manage management ment inform informati ation, on, advice advice and product product struct structure ures. s. These These and fine fine pricin pricing g on various treasury products are provided through the bank's Treasury team. To comply with statut statutory ory reserve reserve requir requireme ements nts,, the bank bank is requir required ed to hold hold 25% of its deposits deposits in government securities. The Treasury business is responsible for managing the returns and market risk on this investment portfolio.

Management: Mr. Jagdish Capoor took over as the bank's Chairman in July 2001. Prior to this, Mr. Capoor was a Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The Managing Director, Mr. Aditya Puri, has been a professional banker for over 25 years, and before joining HDFC Bank in 1994 was headin heading g Citiba Citibank' nk'ss operat operation ionss in Malays Malaysia. ia. The Bank's Bank's Board Board of Direct Directors ors is compos composed ed of eminent individuals with a wealth of experience in public policy, administration, industry and comm commer erci cial al bank bankin ing. g. Seni Senior or exec execut utiv ives es repr repres esen enti ting ng HDFC HDFC are are also also on the the Boar Board. d. Senior Senior bankin banking g profes professio sional nalss with with substa substanti ntial al experie experience nce in India India and abroad abroad head variou variouss businesses and functions and report to the Managing Director. Given the professional expertise of the management team and the overall focus on recruiting and retaining the best talent in the industry, the bank believes that its people are a significant competitive strength.

58


SBI : State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest bank in India. It is also, measured by the number of

branch offices and employees, the largest bank in the world. Established in 1806 as Bank of Bengal, it remains the oldest commercial bank in the Indian Subcontinent and also the most successful one providing various domestic, international and NRI products and services, through its vast network in India and overseas. With an asset base of $126 billion and its reach, it is a regional regional banking behemoth. The bank was nationalized nationalized in 1955 with the Reserve Reserve Bank of India having a 60% stake. It has laid emphasis on reducing the huge manpower through Golden handshake schemes and computerizing its operations. State Bank of India has often acted as guarantor to the Indian Government, Government, most notably during Chandra Shekhar 's tenure as Prime Minister of India. India. With more than 9400 branches and a further 4000+ associate bank branches, the SBI has extensive coverage. State Bank of India has electronically networked most of its metropolitan, urban and semi-urban branches under Core Banking System(CBS). The bank has the largest ATM network in the country having more than 5600 in number [1] number [1].. The State Bank of India has had steady growth over its history, though it was marred by the Harshad Mehta scam in 1992 1992.Following .Following its arch-rival ICICI Bank , the bank has started Core banking process by which more than 4400+ branched have been completed so far. In recent years, the bank has sought to expand its overseas operations by buying foreign banks. It is the only Indian bank to feature in the top 100 world banks in the Fortune Global 500 rating rating and variou variouss other other rankin rankings. gs. Accord According ing to the Forbe Forbess 2000 listin listing g it tops tops all Indian Indian companies. Group companies 

SBI Capital Markets Ltd



SBI Mutual Fund (A Trust) 59


SBI Factors and Commercial Services Ltd



SBI DFHI Ltd



SBI Cards and Payment Services Pvt Ltd



SBI Life Insurance Co. Ltd - Bancassurance (Life Insurance)



SBI Funds Management Pvt Ltd

According to PM Network, State Bank of India launched a project in 2002 to network more than 14,000 domestic and 70 foreign offices and branches. The first and the second phases of the project have already been completed and the third phase is still in progress. As of December 2006, over 10,000 branches have been covered.The new infrastructure serves as the bank's backbone, carrying all applications, such as the IP telephone network, ATM network, Internet banking and internal e-mail e-mail.. The new infrastructure has enabled the bank to further grow its ATM network with plans to add another 3,000 by the end of 2008 raising the total number to 8,600.

60


MAJOR FINDINGS 61


MAJOR FINDINGS Major Macro – Economic Factors include Gross Domestic Product – which has grown by over

8% in 2005-06, FDI Confidence Index – where India stands II in the world, Inflation – which has slow down due to falling crude prices, Gross Fiscal Deficit Interest Rate – the UPA government is confident to achieve the budgeted targets, Rising Oil prices & Exchange Rate – Indian government and oil companies are relax as oil prices have fallen beside Indian Rupee has strengthen against USD, EURO and Yen and Capital Market – the year is booming for market with FII and mutual fund are pumping money increasing BSE Sensex returns over 50%. In June 2006, Indian Banking System is spread through 66000 branches with an asset base of about $270 billion. There are 87 Scheduled Commercial Banks operating in India including 8 Bank of SBI & Associates, 20 Nationalized Banks, 29 Private Banks and 30 Foreign Banks. In terms of asset size, public sector banks have highest base compared to private and foreign banks. SBI & Associated Associated have asset base of Rs.691872 cr. Bank group-wise, group-wise, new private sector banks grew at the highest rate during 2005-06 (43.2 per cent), followed by foreign banks (31.2 per cent), public sector banks (13.6 per cent) and old private sector banks (12.2 per cent). As a result, the relative significance of PSBs declined significantly with their share in total assets of SCBs declining to 72.3 per cent at end-March 2006 from 75.3 per cent at end-March 2005, while that of new private sector banks increasing to 15.1 per cent from 12.5 per cent. Credit to the priority sector increased by 33.7 per cent in 2005-06 as against 40.3 per cent in the previous year. The agriculture and housing sectors were the major beneficiaries, which together accounted for more than two-third of incremental priority sector lending in 2005-06. Credit to 62

Indian Banking System 201 0 small scale industries also accelerated. Retail loans, which witnessed a growth of over 40.0 per cent in 2004-05 and again in 2005-06, 2005-06, have been the prime driver of the credit growth growth in recent years. Retail loans as a percentage of gross advances increased from 22.0 per cent in March 2004 to 25.5 per cent in March 2006.

ICICI Bank is the leading market player with change in loans market share in FY02-06 of over 5% and change in deposits market share in FY 02-06 is nearby 2.5%. HDFC Bank and UTI Bank are also in high growth phase. The laggards are SBI Bank, Bank of Baroda Bank, Bank of India and Punjab National Bank.

Some of MicroMicro-Eco Econom nomic ic factor factorss Micro-Economic Micro-Economic Factors affecting affecting Banking Industry: Some identified in the report are: 

Loan Demand in which the Indian Banking Industry has seen sustained strength in credit growth (a 30% increase in Oct 2006, of which 58% growth has seen in service sector and 100% in real estate sector).



Rising funding costs with soft lending rates – Deposits has seen a growth of 22% of which household savings contribute to 43%, credit spread increase to 3.3% and Yield on government bonds reduced to 7.75% due to rising interest cost



Non – Performing Loans (NPLs) - The Total bank loans stood at Rs 15,231.7bn, of which housing loans are Rs. 1719.2bn. However, the Industry’s share of total credit has dropped to 40%



Technol Technology ogy - Indian Indian banks banks still still don’t don’t have have the robust robust syste systems ms requir required ed for effici efficient ent functioning of online banking and Banks need to explore newer channels such as SMS, WAP and 3G mobile telephony applications ap plications to facilitate online access to customers. 63


conclusion 64


CONCLUSION The project involves valuation of major Indian Banks including ICICI Bank, SBI and HDFC Bank. The methodology methodology followed followed is Target Pricing, which including including estimating estimating growth rate by regression on historical sales to forecast next year sales, earning and Profit and Loss account. Then EPS is calculated which is multiplied to Historical P/E to forecast intrinsic value of share. All shares are undervalued and expected to give positive risk adjusted returns to investors. Since the intrinsic value is more than current market price for all the companies, the share can be recommended to conservative investors.

65


BIBLIOGRAPH Y 66


BIBLIOGRAPHY



Company Reports



Government of India, 1998, Report of the Committee on Banking Sector Reforms Reforms



Government of India, 1991, Report of the Committee on the Financial System



IMF Working Paper - Competition in Indian Banking Bank ing by A. Prasad and Saibal Ghosh



Indian Banks Association, Various Years, Performance Highlights of Banks (Mumbai).



Indian Banking Association



Ministry of commerce and Industry



Reserve Bank of India, 2008, 20 08, “Annual Policy Statement for the year 2007-08” (Mumbai).

67


Reserve Bank of India (a), Various Years, Ye ars, Report on Trend and Progress of Banking Banking in India (Mumbai).



Reserve Bank of India (b), Various Years, Statistical Tables Relating to Banks in India in India (Mumbai).

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Project on Indian Banking System

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