Pablo Gerchunoff y Lucas Llach

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Pablo Gerchunoff Lucas Llach

  Un siglo de políticas económicas argentinas

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  

 

                          


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EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y EL DESENCANTO



        

  

334

         

                    


  

                                

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                                 

      



   


                                 

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EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y El. DESENCANTO

              

        el capital extranjero debe tomarse como un complemento y no como factor determinante e irreemplazable del desarrollo.'

               




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                       

                 







OTRO GOLPE DE SUERTE Términos del intercambio externo , 1960=100

                   

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 '

1--r-+

LO m o N a io m o N o v v v v v a v^ v1 Un Ln Ln io io m m m m m m m m m m m m

v io m

LO

LO m

m

m

m

Fuente: apéndice estadístico.

             

         




LOS SOCIOS SOCIALISTAS Exportación a países socialistas como % de las exportaciones argentinas 8 16 14 12 10

8 6 4 2

o 1972 Fuente: Di Tella (1983).

1973

1974

1975

1976





              

            

      


VÉRTIGO ECONÓMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983)

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                      

          

        

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                                     

           

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 


                              

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 

                                         

                      

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            

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 

UN CUADRO DESMEJORADO Indicadores económicos durante el peronismo

                            

14 -r

200 180

12 +

160 1 0+

140 120

8+

100 6+

80

4+

60 40

2+

20

t

0 1973

1974

r-^

o

1975

Crecimiento ( escala izquierda) Inflación ( escala derecha) Déficit del sector público ( escala izquierda) Fuente : apéndice estadístico.

              


           

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                                                


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        

                                          



 

                    

     

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              

               


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           

                    

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                                        



355

                                        





                   

            el caos sembrado por el gobierno marxista de Allende solamente aceleró los cambios socializantes graduales que se fueron introduciendo en Chile ininterrumpidamente desde mediados de la década del 30.8

   


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



  

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                 

                    

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                                       

    

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DINERO BARATO Tasa de interés activa, nominal y real, antes de 1977

-Tasa nominal activa de interés, anual -Inflación mayorista anual -Tasa de interés real anual

Fuente: datos provistos por Carlos Winograd.

           

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                                        


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                           

                 





   

                                




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La actual situación financiera es típica de un ajuste transitorio debido, en gran medida, a la sobreestimación por parte de los empresarios de la tasa de inflación.9

                    

                   

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                                       


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             

DIVERGENCIA Tasas trimestrales de inflación local e internacional y de devaluación

------ Ta,a de deoalaaalón ----Tosa de Intlac- ote,mmonal

-Tasa de aeca daoen 1 tasa de ITadanmematlooal -in0ndon local minotlsta -Inlbcic n local _,_'do

--------------- ----------------------97911

Fuente : Canitrot ( 1981).

   

r

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                    

                                       

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                  


368





            

LEJOS DEL MUNDO Comercio argentino como porcentaje de su PBI y del comercio mundial

3.000

.500 2.000 1.500

1.000 0.500 0.0

0.000 m

m

m

m

m

m

v m

un m m m m Lo m

m

m

m

m

m

-Comercio exterior como % del P3l (escala izquierda) Comercio argentino como % del comercio mundial (escala derecha)

Fuente: Maddison (1995) y apéndice estadístico,


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                            

           

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                      

ABAJO EL ARANCEL Evolución de la estructura arancelaria bajo Martínez de Hoz

Arancel o mas ae 100% • 70%-100% -40%-70% o 10%- 20% 0l%-10%

.o% 08/78

Fuente: De Pablo (1987).




                                 



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

CUANDO EL TIPO DE CAMBIO IMPORTA Exportaciones , i mportaciones y tipo de cambio real

        

12000.0

T 10000

10000.0

90.00

8000.0

80.00

6000.0

70.00

4000.0

60,00

2000.0

50.00

0.0

40.00 1 976

1 977

1 978

1 979

1 980

O Exportaciones ~Importaciones 0 Tipo de cambio real deflactado por IPM (1976=100)



       

Fuente: Winograd (1984) y apéndice estadístico.

                 


                  



 

  

 

          

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                           

         


                 

           

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



      

               

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LAS CUENTAS DEL PROCESO Gastos e ingresos de la administración central , como % del PBI 30 r

25 + 20 +

Los dueños de pequeños ahorros sufren silenciosamente, como la experiencia muestra, estas enormes depredaciones. cuando habrían derribado a un gobierno que les hubiese quitado una fracción de ese monto por medios más de-

15 +

liberados pero más justos.10 1 0+

5 o o

n m

r m

n m

ro m

m m

m m

® Ingresos (% del PBI )  Gastos ( % del PSI)

Fuente: base de datos propia.

      


                 





 



UN PROCESO NEGATIVO Crecimiento e inflación en 1973-83

       

CRECIMIENTO CERO La Argentina y el mundo en 1973-83 Crecimiento - Inflación minorista

Fuente: apéndice estadistico.

     

o PBI per capita 1e1973, en dólares de 1990 o PBI per capas de 1983. en dólares de 1990

PBI per capita d e i 973, en dólares de 1990 PBI por Capea de 1983, en dólares de 1990

Europa: Alemania, Reino Unido, Francia e Italia. NICS: Taiwán, Tailandia y Corea del Sur, Mundo: muestra de 56 paises de Maddison (1995). Fuente: Maddison (1995).


        

 

El ciclo de la ilusión y el desencanto Un siglo de políticas económicas argentinas

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  

          

                








   



                                   


                                           

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                                       


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

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  





   

                                   

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EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y El. DESENCANTO

                                         


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                                         

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  

LA DÉCADA PERDIDA Crecimiento comparado de la Argentina y otros países de América latina

10000.0 9000.0

8000.0

-1,52% anual

7000.0 6000.0 5000.0 4000.0 3000.0

-0.01% anual

2000.0 1000.0 0.0 Argentina

6 grandes de América latina

o PBI per cápita en 1982 0P81 per cápita en 1989 'Se trata de Brasil , Colombia, Chile, México, Perú y Venezuela Fuente: Maddison (1995).

              


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                                       



 

                        

     

    secundario.

 

   

 


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



    

                                   

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EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y F.I. DESENCANTO

                                 

       




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                  

                 

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                                       


LA DEMOCRACIA Y EL DIFÍCIL GOBIERNO... (1983-1989)

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                         

             







  

             

                    

            


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                           

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                         

              


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                                         

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                            

  

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          


              

                 





de inflación. Por otro lado. la inflación acumulada desdejunio (le 1985 había meado presiones en el mercado de trabajo y había deteriorado un poco el nivel real de las tarifas públicas y el tipo de cambio.'

                   

             


LA DEMOCRACIA Y el. DtFícll, GOBIERNO... (1983-1989)

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                

                      







           

AUSTRAL, ESTABILIZACIÓN Y DESPUÉS Tasas mensuales de inflación minorista

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OJ f) (n

Fuente: Machinea (1989),

   




yo soy monetarista, estructura!ista y todo lo que sea necesario para bajar la inflación, y si hay que recurrir a la macumba, también .7

                        

           

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                                     

  


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







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     

                              

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         

                                        


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LA DEMOCRACIA 1' EL DIFÍCIL GOI31ERN0... (1983-1989)

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                                      

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                                            


LA DEMOCRACIA Y EL DIFÍCIL GOBIERNO... (1983-1989)

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                               

    



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         

                             


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                

        

           

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                                       






  

                                 

416







laboral que impedía toda influencia del gobierno en la determinación de salarios, exceptuando obviamente los del sector público.

    

                                                                                 


                                  

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                                        


LA DEMOCRACIA Y EI, DIFICIL. GOBIERNO... (1983-1989)

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                                    

 

El ciclo de la ilusión y el desencanto Un siglo de políticas económicas argentinas

emece


    

                           


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                                       


GRANDES EXPECrArlvkS, GRANDES... (1989-2001)

423

                                        

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

  

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  

                                

 Las tendencias de la economía internacional durante los años 90 pueden entenderse , desde una perspectiva histórica, como una prolongación y una intensificación de las que venían manifestándose desde la posguerra . El proceso de interrelación creciente entre los varios merca-


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                                         

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HISTORIA Y PREHISTORIA DE LA GLOBALIZACIÓN Valor del comercio y la producción mundiales (escala logarítmica , 1870=100)

GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, GRANDES... (1989-2001)

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               

Comercio

Fuente: Maddison (1995).

               


          

              

428


                                                                                 


GRANDES E xPECTAnvAS,

G RA N DES... (1989-2001)

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              

           

         

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                                        


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                                            





GRANDES

    

DE LA HIPERINFLACIÓN A LA INFLACIÓN CERO Variación porcentual anual de los índices de precios

1980-88

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Precios al consumidor 287

4.924

1.344

84

17,5

7,4

3,9

1,6

0,1

0,3

Precios mayoristas

5.383

798

57

3,1

0,1

3

5,8

2,1

-0,9

293

1996 1997

Fuente: Lach (1997).

                    

  


EXPECTATIV AS, G RANDES... (1989-2001)

433

                                         

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                                         


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                                       

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

             

       

 

                            


                                  

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                                        


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

  



                                        

                   

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                                         


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                                       

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                                      

                 


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                                              

444

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                                                


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 





445

                                    

    

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                                       


GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, GRANDES... ( 1989-2001)

447

                                        

448

EL CICLO DE LA ILUSION Y EL DESENCANTO

                                          


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   

                                  

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                                          


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GRANDES

ExNCCTATtv,as, GRANDES... (1989-2001)

451

                                       

452

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                                        


GRA NDES

EXPECLanvAS,GRANDES...

(1989-2001)

453

                                       



  

GRANDES ExpEcTATwAS,GRANDES...(1989-2001)

455

      

      

              

          

                  

UN PROBLEMA DE PROPORCIONES Deuda externa como porcentaje de las exportaciones, países seleccionados (2000)




700%

600% 500% 400% 3 00% 200% 1 00%

0%

Fuente: estadísticas del Fondo Monetario Internacional y de la Organización Mundial de Comercio.

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                                        






 





                      

Pablo Gerchunoff y Lucas Llach

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