REPUBLIC OF KENYA MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT Dagoretti Dagorett i Corner, Ngong Road, P. O. Box 30259, Nairobi, Kenya, Kenya, Telephone: Telephone: 254-20-3867880-5, Fax: 254-20-3876955/387373, 254-20-3876955/387373, E-mail:
[email protected]
Ref No: KMD/FCST/5-2017/SO/02
Issue Date: 30/05/2017
REVIEW OF RAINFALL RAINFALL DURI DURING NG THE 2017 “ LONG RAINS” (MARCH TO MAY SEASON) AND THE OUTLOOK FOR THE JUNE-JULY-AUGUST (JJA) 2017
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HIGHLIGHTS 1.1 PERFO ERFORM RMANC ANCE OF THE THE MARCH-APRI RIL L-MA -MAY Y 2017RA RAIINFALL SEASON Th TheMar eMarch to May 2017 seasonal rainfall has ceased over most parts of theco ecountry except thewe ewestern, theCo eCoastal strip stripandsomeparts rtsof central ntral highlandsincluding includingNairo airobi, Most parts rts of theco hecountry untryexperie rienced below-normal rainf rainfal alll that wasmainl ainly y recorded in Apri Aprill andMay2017. A few stati stations in in southe utheastern Kenya, and the the Coastal stri strip recorded above-normal (enhanced) rainf rainfal alll (more than 125 percent of their seasonal Long-Te -TermMe rmMeans (LTM (LTMs) s)for March-Ap -April ril-May -M ay(MA (MAM). Th Thedis edistribution, bothin timeand space, was generallypoor over most parts of thecountry includingthewe ewestern and central ntral regions. The These seasonal rainf rainfal alll onset was very late lateo over the thee enti ntireco recountry untry wit with most areasremaini aining ngsunnyand dry throug throughout the them month of March2017.
1.2 OUTLOOK FOR JUNE-J JUNE-JULY-A ULY-AUG UGUS UST 2017PERI ERIO OD Th Theoutlo tlook for J une-J uly-August (J J A)2017season indicatesthat: Th TheWe eWestern highlands, theLak eLakeVictoria Basin, and parts of central Rift Valle lley (Nakuru, Nyahururu) arelik elikelyto receivene venear-no ar-normal rai rainf nfal alll wit with a tendencytowards aboveno venormal (enhanced rainf rainfal alll). TheCo TheCoastal stri strip p is also alsolikely to receivene venear normal rainf rainfal alll wit with a tendencyto abovenormal. al. Th There erest of thecountryisexpectedtoremaingenerally llydry. Most areasin the theCe Central ntral Highlan hlandsandNairob airobi area aree reexpected to experie riencecool/co ol/ cold and cloudyconditi nditions wit with occasion sional li light rai rains/ ns/dri driz zzle zles. Theda Theday-ti y-timetemperature ratures areho rehowever li likelytobesli slightly htly warmer tha than average.
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REVIEW OF MARCH-MAY (LONG-RAINS) 2017 SEASONAL RAINFALL
Th T he Mar March-Ap Aprrilil-May May (MAM) MAM ) 20 2017 seasonal rainf infall ha has ceased ov over mo most pa parts of th the country. An st assessment of the ra rainfall nfall recorded recorded from from 1 Ma M arch 2017 up to dat date e indi indicates that the rainfa rainfall perfor perform mance wa was generall enerally y poor over over most parts parts of the country. T he seasonal rainfall rainfall was also characte characterized rized by late onset onset as well as poor dist distri ributi bution, on, both in in tim time and space. ce. Gene G enerall rally y sunny and dry dry weather condi conditions tions were were dominant over the much of the country country during during the month of M arch 2017. Much of the rainfall was recorded recorded during during the second half of April pril and in in Ma M ay 201 2017. 7. M ost meteorol orolog ogiical sta stations tions in the country recorded below below 75 percent of their seasonal L ong-T ong-Term erm M eans (LT (L T M s) for M arch to Ma M ay. H owev owever, Ma M achakos sta station tion in in Southea Southeastern tern Keny K enya and Mtw M twapa and M ombasa along the the Coas Coastal strip strip recorded recorded above-norma above-normal (enhanced) (enhanced) rainfal rainfalll of more ore than 125 percent percent of their their seasonal L T M s Short-l Short-liived heavy rainfa rainfall events at these sta stations tions signifi significantly ntly contributed contributed to the seasonal rainf rainfa all totals. totals. Macha M achakos kos was pounded by by 61.7mm, 47.5m 47.5mm and 53.3mm 53.3mm on 6th April, 18th April and 4th May M ay 2017 respective respectively whil hile Mtw Mtwapa experienced xperienced 63.1mm, 49.6mm 49.6mm, 75.2m 75.2mm and th th th th 192.5mm respective respectively on 17 Ma M arch, 17 April, 4 Ma M ay and 8 Ma May 2017. 2017. Stati Stations ons that recorded nea nearnormal rainfall (betw (between 75 and and 125 percent percent of their seasonal L T Ms) include include Ki K isum sumu, K akamega, K ericho, Eldoret and Ki Kisii in western tern Keny K enya, Ny Nyeri and and Meru Meru in central central Keny K enya, Msa M sabaha, La L amu and M alindi in the Coasta Coastal strip rip and and Ma M akindu kindu in in Southeastern stern Keny K enya. T he most depre depress ssed rainfall of less .
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than 40 percent percent of the seasonal L T M was recorded recorded at at Ny Nyahururu, M andera, ndera, Moi Moi Airbase rbase, Wi W ilson Airport, irport, Ma M arsabit and and Lodw L odwar. Several eral rainfal rainfalll stor storm ms (intens (intense rainfa rainfall within thin short tim time interval intervals) were recorded duri during ng the season. th M ombasa, for for exa example, ple, recorded recorded 235.1 mm on 8 Ma M ay. Up to 28th Ma M ay, Mtw Mtwapa M eteorol orolog ogiical station tion recorded recorded the highes highest rainfa rainfall amount of 848.7mm, which was 140% of its its seasonal L T M . Other O ther sta stations tions that recorded MA MAM seasonal rainfall rainfall total totals excee exceedi ding ng 500mm include; nclude; Ka K akameg kamega 623.7mm (92%), (92%), M ombasa 620.9mm (129%), (129%), K ericho ericho 581.4m 581.4mm (86%), K isii 560.3mm .3mm (82%) and and Ki K isum sumu 536.4m 536.4mm m (99%). M sabaha, Ny N yeri, eri, Ma M alindi, L amu, Em Embu, Meru, M eru, M achako chakos, s, El Eldoret doret Ai Airport rport and Ki Kitale stations tions recorded recorded betw between een 300 and 500m 500mm whil hile the the rest of the figure 1. 1. T he lowes stations tions recor recorded ded less less than 300mm as seen in in fig lowest amount ount of 22.2mm (23%) (23%) was recorded recorded at L Lodwa odwar station tion in in Nor Northw thwestern Keny K enya. 3. EXPER EXPERIIENCED IMP MPACT ACTS S Th T he poor rainf infall performance and delayed onset over much of the country was associated with ith, among others: L ate pla planting nting of crops crops in the agricul ricultural tural areas especia cially in the central central and western hig highla hlands includi ncluding ng the maize-basket areas reas of T rans Nzoia zoia and Ua Uasin Gi Gishu; Poor past pasture ure regena regenaration ration for for li livestock stock in in the pastor stora al areas reas of Na Narok, rok, K ajiado and and other areas reas within Rift Valley as well as the northern parts of the country; Sli Slight im improve provements in the water lev levels in in the Seven-For n-Forks ks as well as T urkw urkwel and Sondu Mi M iriu riu hydroelect hydroelectri ric c pow power er generatio eneration n dam dams;
Th T he he heavy rainf infall rec recorded in the Coa Coastal ar areas inc includ luding ing Kwa Kwale, le, ho however, re resulte lted in into flo floo ods and displace displacem ment of mor more e tha than n 1500 local residents residents. In I n Momba Mombasa County, 15 people ople lost lost their li lives six of whom died due to a coll collapse pse of wall in Ki K izing zingo fol folllowi owing the heavy and continuous rainfa rainfall in the region. Th T he situ ituation ion was worsened by poor urban draina inage lea leading ing to surface runoff of huge volum lumes of water that destro destroye yed infr infra astructure and property property.. 4. FORECAST FOR JUNE-JULY-AUGUST 2017 Rainfal Rainfalll is normally concentrate concentrated over the western and and the coasta stal regions during during the J une-Jul une-J uly-A y-Aug ugust (JJ (J J A) sea season. The T he rest of the country country remains generally rally dry (Figure 2 ). Th T he clim limate outloo look for Jun June to Au Aug gust 2017 is based on the expected evolut lution ion of glob lobal Se Sea Surface Te T emperature (SST ) patterns as well as upper air circ irculation ions patterns. T he process inv involves regression of sea surface temperature perature anoma anomalies (SST As), SST gradients, Wi W ind patte patterns rns in in the upper lev levels (Qua (Quasi-B i-Bienn iennial ial Os O scillat cillations ions (QB (QBO ), South Southe ern Os Oscillat cillation ion Ind I nde ex (SO (SOII ) and India Indian n Oce Ocean Dipole Dipole (IO (I OD) on the Keny Kenyan rainfa rainfall. T he expe expected cted dist distribution ribution is deri deriv ved from sta statistical tistical analysis of past past years, whose characteristics were found to exhibit similarities to the current year. Th T he forecast ind indica icates that the W estern highlands, the Lak Lake Vict Victoria Basin, in, parts of central Rif Riftt Valle lley (Na (Nakuru, kuru, Nya N yahururu) hururu) and the Coastal strip strip are li likely kely to receive near-nor r-norm mal rainfall rainfall with a tendency tendency to above norm normal (enhanced (enhanced rai rainfall nfall). Th T he rest of of th the country is expected to to re remain generally lly dry (Figure 3 ). H oweve owever; most areas in the Central entral H ighla hlands and Na Nairobi robi area are expecte expected to expe experi rience ence cool and cloudy cloudy conditi conditions ons with occasional sional drizzles drizzles or li light rai rains. ns. The T he speci pecific fic outlooks outlooks for indiv ndividual areas are as foll follows: ows:
eri cho,, N andi, E ldor ldor et, et, K ak amega, ega, B ungoma ungoma, B uter uter e/M e/M umi umi as The Th e Western Hi H ighlands (K i tale, K ericho V ihiga ihi ga etc etc ), Lake Vict isumu, Ny N yando ndo, K isii, isii , B usia usia ), parts Central Ri Victoria Ba Basin (K isumu, Rift ft Valley Valley (Na (Nakuru, ,
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O l K alao, lao, N yahururu yahururu ) are li likely kely to to rece receiive near-nor r-norm mal rainfal rainfalll with a tendency tendency to to above-norma above-normal (enhanced) nced) rainfall; rainfall;
M omb basa, sa, K ilifi, ilifi , and and M twapa) is also likely to The entire Coa Coastal strip strip (La (L amu, Ma Malindi, Msabaha, Mom receive near-normal rainfall tending to above-normal (enhanced) rainfall; rok , K ajia ji ado ) and nor The southern parts of Cen Central Ri Rift ft Valley Valley (N arok, northw thwestern regions ons especially pecially those bordering bordering Uganda/Suda nda/Sudan (Lokichoggio, Lokitaung etc ) are likely to receive occasional rainfall (showers (showers and thunderstorms). thunderstorms). L ong dry spells pells are, however, likely kely to domi dominate. nate. bu, N yeri yeri,, E mbu, bu, M eru, M urang’ urang’a a ); Nairobi Are goretti, The Central Highlands(K i ambu, Area (D agoretti, K abe bete te,, W ilson, Jomo Jomo K enya enyatta tta I nter nter nationa nationall A i rport, E astleigh stleigh etc ); are likely to experience cool and cloudy cloudy conditions conditions with occasional li light rains/dri rains/drizzles. zzles. Occasional prol prolong onged hours of overca overcast st skies kies (cloudy (cloudy conditi conditions) ons) resulting resulting to cold cold and chil chilly conditi conditions ons are expecte expected. T he dayti ytime tem temperatures peratures are, however, likely kely to be warmer than average during during the period. period. H oweve owever, a few days may turn out out to be o gure 4). extremely cold with temperatures falling below 18C in some areas (Fi (Fig ji r , M ander nder a, G ar i ssa, ssa, M oya oyale, Ma M arsabit, rsabit, I siolo, and and Most parts of Nor Northea theastern Kenya Kenya (W ajir lowlands ( G ar batulla batulla ) and Southeastern low Ma M acha chakos, kos, Ma M akind ki ndu, u, K itui, itui, M wingi, K ibwe ibwezi, V oi, T aveta ) are expected expected to rema remain generall generally y sunny and dry dry throughout the period. period. T he southea southeastern stern reg regions borderi bordering ng the centra centrall dist distri ricts cts (Ma (M achako chakos s area) rea) are are li likely kely to expe experi rience ence occasio occasiona nall cool cool and cloudy cloudy conditions with light rains. 5. POT OTENTI ENTIAL AL IMP I MPACTS ACTS EXP EXPECTED ECTED Th T he follo llowing ing are the expected impacts during ing the coming ing season: 5.1 Agri ricul culture ture and Food Security Security Sector Th T he expected enhanced rainf infall in western Ken Kenya will ill lea lead to improvement in crop performance and subs subseq equent uent agricultural ricultural production. production. T he cloudy cloudy and drizzly drizzly conditions conditions in central central hig highla hlands are al also favorable for good crop performance. Poor harves harvest is is likel likely y to to characte characterize rize most parts parts of the southeastern low lowllands where the M AM rainfall rainfall perfor perform med poorl poorly and generall enerally y dry weather conditi conditions ons are expected in in June-J June-Jul uly-A y-Aug ugust period. period. 5.2 Disaster Mana Management Sector I n the Ari Arid d and and Semi-Ari -Arid d La L ands (ASA (ASAL L s), problem problems rel related ted to water ter scarcity rcity and lim limited ted pasture for livestock are li likely kely to start emerging as the pasture and water gradually deterior riora ate due to the expected expected sunny sunny and dry dry conditions conditions in J une-Jul une-July-A y-Aug ugust. ust. Cl Close monitori onitoring ng of the evolving condi conditio tions ns is neces necessary to avert any incidents. ncidents. Fl Floodi ooding ng in the western estern parts of the country country may be expected and preca precautions utions need to be instituted. ADVISORY : Duri uring ng chil chillly days, the publ publiic is is adv dviised not to li light jikos jikos in in poorly poorly vent entiilate ted d houses. Burni urning ng charco rcoa al pro produces duces Carbo rbon n Monoxi Monoxide de gas tha hatt is letha lethal when inhaled. inhaled. 5.3 Health Sector I n areas reas such as as N Na airobi robi,, Centra Centrall hig highla hlands, Centra Centrall Rift Rift Va Valley and parts parts of the highl highla ands west of the Rift Rift V Va alley, cases of respira respiratory dise diseases li like asthma thma, pneumonia onia and common col colds (flu) (flu) are expe expecte cted d to be on the increase ncrease due to to the expe expected cted cool/ cool/cold cold conditi conditions. ons. The T he general eneral publi public (especiall pecially the young and elderl elderly y members of society society) is is advised dvised to adopt dopt warm dres dress code to avoid oid contracti contracting ng such dise diseases. I n wes western and Nya Nyanza, nza, cases cases of M alaria ria may increa increase as a result of the foreca forecasted sted enhanced rai rainfall nfall coupled coupled with the already ready very wet conditi conditions ons in the region. T he health authori uthorities ties should should therefore refore be on the loo looko kout ut to facil facilitate supply upply of drug drugs necessa necessary to combat these disea diseases. 3
5.4 Transport and Publi Public Safety W et conditions conditions are expec expecte ted d to continue continue occurr occurriing in Wes W estern tern K enya and s som ome e parts of Central entral Ri Rift Valley. T his his may lea lead to transport port probl problem ems, especia cially in in areas where the roa roads become im impass passable ble when it it rains. Fog forma formation tion lea leading ding to poor poor visibi visibillity may also pose dang dangers to motori otorists and pedes pedestria trians along the Nairobi Nairobi-N -Na aivasha sha road, especi pecially along the K ikuyu-K kuyu-Kiinungi stretc stretch. h. Al A ll shoul should, d, therefore, therefore, take utmost utmost care care to minim nimize acci accidents dents tha thatt may result from from such such wea weather condi conditions. tions. L anding nding at Jom J omo o Keny K enyatta I nterna nternatio tiona nal Airport rport (JK (J K I A) may occasionally sionally be made imposs impossible ble by thick fog and associated very poor visibility leading to diversion of aircrafts to other airports. 5.5 Water Resourc Resources es Management and the Energy Energy Sector Sectors s Th T he poor performance of the “Long Long Rains ins” Mar March-May May 2017 led to low low water inf inflow lows in hydro-elec lectric power generating enerating dams. The T he lev levels are li likely kely to decrease further in the Seven-Fo Seven-Follks dams in in the coming three three months as a result result of the the expected dry dry weather condi conditi tions. ons. T he water lev levels els in the western Kenya K enya reservoi reservoirs rs such as T urkw urkwel are, however, likely kely to gradually increa increase due to the foreca forecast sted ed enhanced rainfa rainfall coupled coupled with the low low evapora poration tion ra rates in the rive river catchment areas. reas. Th T he water ca capacity ity for do domestic use is lik likely to deterior iorate in the coming ing three months in the AS ASALs ALs areas due to the expecte expected d generally enerally dry weather condi conditi tions. ons. NB: This outlook should be used with 24 hour forecasts and regular updates on 5-day, 7-day and monthly time scales as well as advisories issued by this Department.
MR. PETER AMBENJE Ag. DIRECT DI RECTOR OR OF METEOROL METEOROLOG OGIICAL SERVICE SERVICES S & PERMANENT REPRES REPRESENTAT ENT ATIIVE OF KENYA KENYA WITH WMO
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Fig Figure 2: 2: June J une-J -July-A uly-Aug ugust ust (JJ (J J A) Ra Rainfal nfall Cli Climatology tology of Ken K eny ya (1981 (1981-20 -2010 10). ).
Fig Figure 3: June June, July J uly Augus August (JJ (JJ A) 2017 2017 Rainfall Rainfall O utlook utlook
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Figure 4: 4: June J une,, Jul J uly y August ust (JJ (JJ A) 2017 2017 average Tem Temperature O utlook
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