3rd May, 2018
MARKET MOVEMENT MYSTERY: Alternative Trend Analysis
F or eca cast stii ng A si sia an sto stock mar ket him moku” on “ I chi DZH Financial Research, Inc. Yukitoshi Higashino, MFTA ® NTAA NT AA Director
Speaker Profile
Yukitoshi ukitosh i Higashino Hi gashino,, MFT MF TA NTAA NTAA Director / DZH Financial Research, Chief Technical Strategist of the Equity Research team
Yukitoshi is Chief Technical Strategist of the Equity Research team at DZH Financial Research, an investment information firm located in Tokyo, as Shanghai DZH Limited group. He leads development development of technical strategies for client securities firms dealing in futures, ETFs, and CFDs. His main responsibilities range from analysis of major indices of the Asian and world markets and can extend to even individual stocks. Prior to this, he was a stock lending trader for foreign securities houses and a treasury stock trader for Mizuho Trust Bank. He was also an equity trader and a market analyst at securities firm. Yukitoshi serves as a Director of the Nippon Technical Analysts Association (NTAA) and the head of international business development Dept.
The information contained in this presentation is intended only for the person or entity. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or copying of this presentation by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is strictly prohibited without notifying to the author. This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not and is not intended to
The three basic principles of Ichimoku
Price
Time
Wave Wave
Time
Price
The information contained in this presentation is intended only for the person or entity. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or copying of this presentation by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is strictly prohibited without notifying to the author. This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not and is not intended to
Waves Structure Principles
I wave
Top forming pattern
V wave
N wave
Consecutive N waves
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Price Projection-1 V=B+（B－C）
V projection V
B
A
=
C
=
C
=
B
=
V
A
The target to sell half of the position The information contained in this presentation is intended only for the person or entity. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or copying of this presentation by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is strictly prohibited without notifying to the author. This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not and is not intended to
Price Projection-2 N=C+（B－A）
N projection N
B =
A
=
C
= =
C
B
N
A
The information contained in this presentation is intended only for the person or entity. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or copying of this presentation by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is strictly prohibited without notifying to the author. This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not and is not intended to
Price Projection-3 E=B+（B－A）
E projection E
A C
= =
B B =
=
C A
E
The target to sell all the positions The information contained in this presentation is intended only for the person or entity. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or copying of this presentation by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is strictly prohibited without notifying to the author. This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not and is not intended to
Price Projection-4 NT=C+（C－A）
NT projection NT
A
B
= =
C
=
C =
B
NT A
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Astra International (Daily chart) V: 9700 E: 8775
E: 9250 N: 8875
8875
8750
975
1850
1725
8275
1725
7850
1900
9350
1125
975 7625
1850
6875
1125
7300
2875
N: 7025
1725 V: 6500
1900 2875
6000
E: 5900
4975
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Bloomberg
Bank Rakyat Indonesia （Monthly chart, Middle of V and N) (3785+4045)/2=3915
V: 3785
3920
N: 4045
1095 2690
1095
2450
2450 1595
240
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Bloomberg
Four times higher is the target in a big move up 3E projection 3E
A
C =
=
B =
=
B=
=
=
A
=
C
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3E
“Basic number”-based projection D
B
C Add a Basic number
A
Add a Basic number
Add a Basic number
Reverse or Accelerate?
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“Basic numbers” “
Basic numbers” to be used with daily data
Basic number 9 17 26 33 42 51 65 76 129 172
Comments Useful for c alling intermediate tops/bottoms Useful for calling intermediate tops/bottoms Useful in up markets Particularly useful in down markets Very important in both up and dow n markets More More More More
useful in useful in useful in useful in
up up up up
markets markets markets markets
than than than than
in in in in
dow n markets dow n markets down markets down markets
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CIMB (Daily, Basic number-based projection ) Source: Bloomberg 105
(2015/12/9-2017/8/28)
83 53 43
76
73
64
61
26
34 42
10 18
26 18 9
132
9
17
9
127
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Bloomberg
“Time parity”-based projection A C
B (4)
D (1)
(1)
(2)
(2) (3)
(3) (4)
Reverse or Accelerate?
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Basically 9 patterns of “Time parity” I ＝V =
N＝V
V＝V
=
=
=
=
I
I
I
V
I
N
V
I
V
V
V
N
N
I
N
V
N
N
=
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CIMB (Daily, Time parity-based projection ) (2017/5/29-2018/3/20)
52
51
51
111
4/13
111 84
4/27
84 3/21 75
74
56
54
84 17
17
111
4/12
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5/22
Bloomberg
Coincidence point of time and price is the important Reversal date Reverse or Accelerate?
76
“Basic number”-based projection (9, 17, 26, 33, 42, 51, 65, 76, 83, 97, 101, 129…)
65
＝
＝
42
＝
price
＝
time
26 168
“Time parity”-based projection ＝
116
(1)53, (2 )53+29-1, (3)29+88-1, (4)53+29+88-2 ＝
＝
88
81 53
(4) (3)
(2)
Reverse or Accelerate?
(1)
29 53
＝
price
168 (53+29+88-2)
＝
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time
Singapore Telecom (Weekly, Price and Time projection ) V: 4.53
63
(2013/12-2017/1)
4.57 27
28
26
0.45
N: 4.35
37
26
0.61
0.53
4.08
4.36
3.99
0.53
0.45
3.74
67
3.63
0.61
V: 3.38
42
3.38
44
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Bloomberg
Jakarta Composite Index (Monthly, Price and Time projection ) 6693
84
3V:8085 ← 2V:6336
79
2E:8004 ← E:5421
5524 5251
4195
1749
113
113
3837
4033 33
2838
2583
2021.10
30
29
1749
2583
～ ～
79
1749 1089
42
～ ～
51
～ ～
2018.5 2019.2 2019.11
65
～ ～
76
～ ～
79
～ ～
2022.3
84
～ ～ ～ ～
2022.8
129
2021.1 2021.12
2026.5
255.4 122
122
2018.11
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Bloomberg
Straits Times Index (Monthly, Price and Time projection ) V: 4570 N: 4622
34
3831
34
25
3611
3549
3464 3313
2018.11
24
1021 2953
2608 2521 73
2528
74 53 64 54
74
～ ～
2022.3
74
～ ～
2021.5
53
～ ～
2020.6
64
～ ～
2021.5
54
～ ～
2020.7
2094 1473 1455 1170
111
111
2018.5
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Bloomberg
Malaysia Composite Index (Monthly, Price and Time projection ) N: 2064 V: 2247 E: 2787 NV: 2155 NE: 2425 VE: 2517
V: 2289 122 113
38
37
1332
1597 1524
E: 1781 N: 1307
1278
Middle
1896
393 1503 1310
1544
1021
48 92
70
～ ～
～ ～
70 ～ ～
70 82
83
83 113
57
261
2019.7
92
801
547
～ 48 ～
2021.5 2020.4
～ ～
2022.6 2018.2
122 57
57
169
2023.3
～ ～
2018.11 2022.1
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Bloomberg
