Presentation to
Review of Aviator Aviator April 2006
Table of Contents Section Review of Aviator
1 A
Business Overview
B
Historical Stock Price Performance
C
Wall Street Coverage
D
Current Valuation
E
Historical and Projected Financial Review
F
Officer and Director Profile
G
Shareholder Profile
H
Aviator Corporate Profile
Valuation of Aviator
2 A
Aviator Top-Down Valuation
B
Aviator Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation
C
Enterprise Communications Group Valuation Valuation
D
Enterprise Services Valuation
Pro Forma Merger Consequences—Nortel Acquires Aviator Aviator
3 A
Transaction Considerations
B
Pro Forma Merger Consequences
CONFIDENTIAL
8202529, v1
Table of Contents Section Review of Aviator
1 A
Business Overview
B
Historical Stock Price Performance
C
Wall Street Coverage
D
Current Valuation
E
Historical and Projected Financial Review
F
Officer and Director Profile
G
Shareholder Profile
H
Aviator Corporate Profile
Valuation of Aviator
2 A
Aviator Top-Down Valuation
B
Aviator Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation
C
Enterprise Communications Group Valuation Valuation
D
Enterprise Services Valuation
Pro Forma Merger Consequences—Nortel Acquires Aviator Aviator
3 A
Transaction Considerations
B
Pro Forma Merger Consequences
CONFIDENTIAL
8202529, v1
Section 11
Review Revie w of Aviato Aviatorr
Section 1-12
Business Overview
Snapshot of Aviator Summary Income Statement FY Ending 9/30
Revenue Growth % EBIT Operating Margin %
($ in millions) 2003A
2004A
2005E
2006E
2007E
$3,796.0 NA
$4,069.0 7.2 %
$4,934.0 21.3 %
$5,316.0 7.7 %
$5,635.0 6.0%
$324.0 8.0 %
$320.7 6.5 %
$393.4 7.4 %
$495.9 8.8%
$63.0 1.7 %
Aviator Aviator is a leading provider of communications systems, applications and services that help enterprises transform their businesses by redefining the way they work and interact with their customers, employees, business partners, suppliers and others. Aviator aims to help its customers optimize their enterprises in order to serve their own customers better, enabling them to reduce costs and grow revenue while preserving the security and reliability of their networks. A key component of Aviator’s strategy is to leverage its substantial experience and expertise in traditional voice communications systems to capitalize on the transition of these traditional voice systems to IP telephony systems. Aviator believes its comprehensive suite of IP telephony systems, communications applications and appliances transforms the enterprise communications system into a strategic asset of its customers.
Global Communications Solutions (51% Revenue)
Global Services (49% Revenue)
Large Communications Systems
Maintenance
Small Communications Systems
Implementation and Integration Services
Converged Voice Applications
Rental and Managed Services
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40
Aviator—Global Communications Solutions Summary Income Statement
($ in millions)
FY Ending 9/30
Revenue Growth % EBIT Operating Margin %
2004A
2005E
2006E
2007E
$2,048.0 NA
$2,275.3 11.1 %
$2,450.1 7.7 %
$2,597.1 6.0%
$71.0 3.5 %
$110.6 4.9 %
$146.0 6.0 %
$189.4 7.3%
Global Communications Solutions Global Communications Solutions sells communications systems and converged voice applications designed for both large and small enterprises. Aviator’s offerings in this segment include IP telephony s ystems, multi-media contact center infrastructure and applications in support of customer relationship management, unified communications applications and appliances, and traditional communications systems.
Large Communications Systems
Small Communications Systems
Converged Voice Applications
Media servers
Aviator IP Office
Voice messaging
Media gateways
Telephone handsets
Unified messaging products
Telephone handsets
Contact Center Solutions
Media servers for voice applications
Extension to Cellular
CONFIDENTIAL
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Other applications that facilitate and enhance interaction in an enterprise with customers, partners, suppliers and employees
40
Aviator—Global Services Summary Income Statement
($ in millions)
FY Ending 9/30
Revenue Growth % EBIT Operating Margin %
2004A
2005E
2006E
2007E
$1,761.0 NA
$2,658.7 60.0 %
$2,865.9 7.8 %
$3,037.9 6.0 %
$249.0 14.1 %
$210.1 7.9 %
$249.0 8.7 %
$306.5 10.1 %
Global Services Global Services is focused on supporting Aviator’s customer base with comprehensive, end-to-end global service offerings that enable customers to plan, design, implement, monitor and manage their converged communications networks worldwide.
Maintenance
Monitors and optimizes customers’ network performance to ensure availability. Keeps enterprise communications networks current with the latest software releases, and, in the event of an outage, provides on-site support to help customers recover rapidly.
CONFIDENTIAL
Implementation and Integration Services
Rental and Managed Services
Helps customers leverage and optimize their multi-technology, multi-vendor environments.
Helps enterprises assess, design and install traditional and IP telephony networks, contact centers and unified communications networks.
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Supports customers’ in-house staff and manages complex, multi-vendor, multitechnology networks. Optimizes network performance and configurations, backs up systems, detects and resolves faults, performs moves, adds and changes and manages customers’ trouble tickets and inventories.
40
Aviator—Market Share Analysis
Business Area
Voice
Services
Applications
Call Center
CONFIDENTIAL
Geographic Region EMEA
North America
APAC
1
Nortel
26%
1
Siemens
16%
1
NEC
2
Aviator
21
2
Alcatel
15
2
Fujitsu
9
3
NEC
10
3
Aviator
11
3
Oki
7
4
Mitel
5
4
Ericsson
10
4
Samsung
5
5
Cisco
5
5
Nortel
8
5
Nortel
5
6
Inter-Tel
5
6
Samsung
1
Cisco
8%
1
HP
2
Aviator
7
2
NextiraOne
5.0
2
HP
8
3
HP
5
3
Siemens
4.5
3
Cisco
7
4
Northrop Grumman
5
4
Cisco
3.9
4
IBM
5
5
Verizon
4
5
Nokia
3.5
5
NEC
4
6
IBM
3
6
IBM
3.4
4
6
LG Electronics
8.3%
1
Fujitsu
22%
5 11%
1
Nortel
12%
2
Aviator
12
2
Nortel
9
3
Polycom
4
3
Polycom
6
4
Cisco
2
4
IBM
2
5
IBM
1
5
Cisco
1
6
Microsoft
1
6
Microsoft
1
1
Aviator
36%
1
Aviator
31%
1
Aviator
55%
2
Nortel
22
2
Nortel
23
2
Nortel
20
3
Siemens
7
3
Alcatel
11
3
NEC
4
4
Aspect
5
4
Aspect
5
4
Huawei
3
1
Aviator
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11%
Not Available
40
Aviator—Product Comparison Review of Large IP PBXs (1,000 + Stations)(1)
Ratings
Architecture(2) (3)
Endpoints
(4)
Management and Admin
Aviator S8710 Media Server, G650 Gateway
Cisco IP Communications System
Alcatel OmniPCX Enterprise
ShoreTel ShoreTel5
Siemens HiPath 4000
15
14
12
12
10.5
11
20
20
19.5
19
17.5
18
15
11
12
12.5
11.5
11.5
(5)
20
17.5
17.5
15
17
16.5
(6)
Security
10
8.5
9
5
5
5.5
Performance(7)
20
19
17
20
16.5
13
100
90
87
83.5
78
75.5
Features
Total
Source: McKinsey Report.
CONFIDENTIAL
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40
Aviator’s Challenges in Enterprise Voice
Source: BCR, January 2005. (1) Nortel declined the invitation to participate. (2) Includes: Call-control survivability; redundancy and fallover; IP-to-PSTN re-routing, VoIP bandwidth control; QOS support; scalability, standards support and interoperability; and distributed-system networking. (3) Includes verification of endpoint support: IP hard phone, softphone, wireless, analog/fax support, Power-over-Ethernet; unique, specialty and advanced endpoint features, including video. (4) Based on management task completion, interface navigability and intuitiveness, on-screen help, real-time monitoring, reports and reporting. (5) Includes: Validation of 16 basic phone features; verification of common add-on subsystems (E911, voice mail, voice recognition/response, etc.), and evaluation of special and unique “advanced” features. (6) Includes: Verification of encrypted call control, VoIP/RTP stream encryption, secure management access, vendor’s security documentation, services, security-infrastructure offerings and affiliations. (7) Includes: Traffic load/call-completion testing, interactive/MOS voice-quality tests, latency measurements, verification of high-availability features.
CONFIDENTIAL
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40
Protecting its current installed base of voice customers
Risk of technology substitution from open standard IP-based technologies that could eliminate the need for specialized voice vendors (“Commoditization Effect”)
Dealing with the threat from IP-Centrex offerings, especially as service providers look for new revenue platforms
Well funded competitors like Cisco with significant data credibility
Changing financial metrics as customers migrate to IP
CONFIDENTIAL
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40
Aviator—Summary of Recent Acquisitions ($ in millions) Date
Target
Amount Paid
Description
2004
12/15/04
Route Science
11/18/04
Tenovis Germany GmbH
371 M
$7 M
A maker of adaptive networking software (ANS) for enterprises and service providers. A European-based provider of enterprise communications systems and services.
10/04/04
Spectel
106 M
A provider of audio and web conferencing solutions.
08/04/04
Tata Telecom (now Aviator GlobalConnect Ltd.)
18M
An India-based communication solutions provider and a distributor of Aviator products in India.
152 M
A provider of converged communications for mid-sized businesses, and one of the largest resellers of Aviator’s products in the United States.
2003
11/26/03
Expanets
10/02/03
VISTA Information Technologies, Inc.
NA
An IT services business unit that develops Java-based software for contact center platforms, interactive voice response systems, and CRM software.
04/12/01
Quintus Corporation
30 M
A provider of electronic customer relationship management (eCRM) solutions.
03/07/01
Cyber IQ Systems
02/14/01
VPNet Technologies, Inc.
2001
CONFIDENTIAL
NA
Developer of data networking products including HyperCommerce, CyberSSL and MonsterSSL.
120M
A privately held developer of virtual private network (VPN) solutions and devices.
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40
Section 1-23
Historical Stock Price Performance
Aviator Stock Price Performance Daily: May 9, 2004–May 9, 2005 60,000 50,000 40,000 e m u 30,000 l o V 20,000
$20.00 18.00
A
E
16.00 14.00
G B
H
F C
12.00
I
D
10.00
J
10,000
8.00
0 5/04
P r i c e
6.00 7/04
9/04
11/04
Volume A
05/24/04:
Announced a voluntary contribution of approx. $111M of its common stock to its pension plan.
B
07/06/04:
1/05
3/05
5/05
Price G
11/18/04:
Announced it had completed cash repurchases of $131.6 million in principal amount of its 11 1/8% senior secured notes during the third fiscal quarter.
Announced a redemption for cash all of its outstanding Liquid Yield Option Notes due 2021 (“LYONs”) on Dece mber 20, 2004. The redemption price was $545.67 per $1,000 principal amount at maturity of LYONs.
H
01/25/05:
Announced Q1 ’05 EPS of 17 cents versus consensus estimates of 18 cents.
I
02/24/05:
Announced the successful completion of a new $400 million five-year unsecured revolving credit facility and the reduction of secured floating rate notes associated with the Tenovis acquisition.
J
04/19/05:
Announced Q2 ’05 EPS of 9 cents versus consensus estimates of 18 cents.
C
07/27/04:
Announced Q3 ’04 EPS of 16 cents versus consensus estimates of 12 cents.
D
10/26/04:
Announced Q4 ’04 EPS of 19 cents versus consensus estimates of 18 cents.
E
10/28/04:
Provided guidance for fiscal year 2005 including an operating margin between 8.5–9.0% and revenue growth between 25–27% compared to fiscal 2004 revenues of $4.1B.
F
11/01/04:
Commenced a cash tender offer for any and all of its 11-1/8% Senior Secured Notes due 2009.
Indexed Stock Price Performance Indexed Comparison Graph Daily: May 9, 2003–May 9, 2005 130%
130%
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50 5/04
7/04
Aviator
NASDAQ
Source: Thomson One Banker and Company press releases.
9/04
11/04
1/05
Global Communications Equipment Composite
(1)
3/05
5/05
Global Enterprise Services Composite
(2)
Section 1-34
Wall Street Coverage
Source: Thomson One Banker. (1) Peer group includes Alcatel, Aspect, Cisco, Inter-Tel, InterVoice, Nortel and Polycom. (2) Peer group includes Black Box, Convergys, CGI Group, Getronics and Unisys.
Wall Street Commentary “Despite the earnings miss and pressure on the shares this morning, we still see some downside risk in sales and margins for the next several quarters . We believe that the year-over-year decline for core Aviator’s sales highlights sales of IP telephony products mostly just cannibalizes sales of traditional telephony products and the enterprise telephony industry as a whole has shown and is likely to continue to show limited growth.” —Jiong Shao, Lehman Brothers (April 20, 2005)
“We believe that most of the issues are temporary , the Tenovis integration wiped out almost 50% of this quarter’s EPS and service revenue weakness explains the rest. The Tenovis integration had a highly detrimental effect—contributing a loss of $28m in the quarter. The integration of this company is clearly proving to be a more challenging task than envisioned by the company.” —Tal Liani, Merrill Lynch & Co. (April 20, 2005)
“Despite these reductions to our top-line forecast and an assumed “market-even” growth outlook in our discounted cash flow model we still view the shares as grossly undervalued by the market . While we certainly acknowledge a lower bar has been set with the disappointing results for F2Q, we do not believe the current stock price fairly represents the company’s cash-generating potential over the longer term.” —Timm Bechter, Legg Mason (April 20, 2005)
“We are maintaining our Neutral rating as we expect the current p ause in VoIP demand to continue through calendar 2005. We believe that organic growth could be flat year-over-year with flat-to-down gross and net margins. We do not expect VoIP sales to be robust enough to overcome the declining legacy TDM business, in order to give Aviator significant growth to warrant a buy rating.” —Gina Sockolow, The Buckingham Research Group (April 20, 2005)
Aviator Analyst Coverage Analyst
Bank
Rating
Price Target
Date
Market Perform
NA
05/03/05
Tavis McCourt
Morgan Keegan
Gina Sockolow
Buckingham Research Group
Neutral
NM
04/25/05
Jiong Shao
Lehman Brothers
Neutral
$7.40
04/21/05
Scott Coleman
Morgan Stanley
Attractive
16.00
04/20/05
Long Jiang
UBS
Buy 2
13.00
04/20/05
Frank Marsala
First Albany
Neutral
NA
04/20/05
Ehud Gelblum
JP Morgan
Neutral
NA
04/20/05
Manuel Recarey
Kaufman Brothers
Buy
12.00
04/20/05
Timm Bechter
Legg Mason
Buy
21.00
04/20/05
Eric Buck
Janco Partners
Market Perform
9.00
04/20/05
Jason Ader
Thomas Weisel
Peer Perform
NA
04/20/05
Christin Armacost
SG Cowen
NA
NA
04/20/05
Samuel Wilson
JMP Securities
Strong Buy
20.00
04/20/05
Inder Singh
Prudential
Overweight
14.00
04/20/05
B. Alex Henderson
Smith Barney
Buy
20.00
04/13/05
Section 1-45
Current Valuation
Current Valuation—Aviator ($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Price
Stock Price (5/27/05)
Current Value
$9.53
Fully Diluted Shares
Selected Balance Sheet Items (3/31/05)
489.298
Cash
$688.3
(1 )
52-week High
17.76
52-week Low
7.76
Average—Last 30 days
9.00
Analyst Estimates
Net Income
CY 2007E
$396.2
CY 2006E
Equity Value Enterprise Value
$4,663.0 3,996.7
Total Debt
22.0
Shareholders’ Equity Total Debt/Total Capitalization
Revenue
1,238.3 1.7 %
EBITDA
EBIT
$5,719.5
$788.9
$513.8
367.3
5,395.8
686.9
419.0
CY 2005E
296.8
5,029.5
626.4
338.9
Current Value as a Multiple of:
Equity Value/ Net Income
Revenue
Enterprise Value/ EBITDA
EBIT
CY 2007E
11.8x
0.70x
5.1x
7.8x
CY 2006E
12.7
0.74
5.8
9.5
CY 2005E
15.7
0.79
6.4
11.8
Section 1-56
Historical and Projected Financial Review
(1)
Based on 477.043 million basic shares and 20.696 million in-the-money options with a weighted average strike price of $3.89.
Aviator Historical Financial Review Historical Income Statement Data Fiscal Year Ending September 30
Revenues
($ in millions) 2002
2003
2004
LTM 3/31/2005
$4,387.0
$3,796.0
$4,069.0
% Growth
NA
(13.5 %)
7.2 %
Cost of Sales
$2,523.0
$2,157.0
$2,124.0
$2,330.0
$1,264.0
Gross Profit
$1,864.0
$1,639.0
$1,945.0
$2,132.0
$1,106.0
42.5 %
43.2 %
47.8 %
47.8 %
46.7 %
Operating Expenses
$2,218.0
$1,576.0
$1,621.0
$1,780.0
$966.0
Operating Income
($354.0 )
$63.0
$324.0
$352.0
$140.0
(8.1 %)
1.7 %
7.9 %
7.9 %
5.9 %
1.0
(29.0 )
(15.0 )
(40.0 )
(38.0 )
(51.0 )
(78.0 )
(66.0 )
(41.0 )
(15.0 )
($404.0 )
($44.0 )
$243.0
$271.0
$87.0
$273.0
$84.0
($49.0 )
$43.0
$18.0
% Gross Margin
% Operating Margin
Other Income (expense), net Interest Expense Pretax Income Income Taxes (Benefit) Effective Tax Rate
Net Income from Cont. Operations
NM
(677.0 )
NM (128.0)
$4,462.0
6 Months Ended 3/31/05
NM
NM
292.0
$2,370.0
15.9
NM
%
20.7 %
228.0
69.0
Diluted EPS
EBITDA
% EBITDA Margin
($2.47 )
($0.34 )
$0.64
$0.48
$0.15
($158.0 )
$234.0
$471.0
$567.4
$287.4
6.2 %
11.6 %
12.4 %
12.1 %
(3.6 %)
Aviator Current Balance Sheet Balance Sheet as of March 31, 2005
($ in millions)
Cash and Cash Equivalents Receivables Inventories Deferred Income Taxes, net
$855 793 364 69 139
Other Current Assets Total Current Assets
Property, Plant and Equipment Deferred Income Taxes, net Goodwill Other Intangible Assets Other Assets Total Assets
Accounts Payable Debt Maturing within one year Payroll and Benefit Obligations Deferred Revenue Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-Term Debt Benefit Obligations Deferred Income Taxes, net Other Liabilities Total Non Current Liabilities
Total Shareholders Equity Total Liabilities and Shareholders Equity
Source: Company 10-K for period ended September 30, 2004 and Press release for period ended March 31, 2005. Shown as reported.
$2,220
$747 360 939 390 187 $4,843
$403 74 289 234 365 $1,365
114 1,595 119 411 $2,239
1,239 $4,843
Aviator Financial Review Income Statement Summary FYE September 30,
($ in millions, except per share data) 2003A
2004A
2005E
2006E
2007E
Revenue % Growth
$3,769.0 NA
$4,069.0 8.0 %
$4,934.0 21.3 %
$5,316.0 7.7 %
$5,635.0 6.0 %
EBITDA % Margin
$229.0 6.1 %
$471.0 11.6 %
$615.4 12.5 %
$659.5 12.4 %
$769.2 13.7 %
EBIT % Margin
$58.0 1.5 %
$324.0 8.0 %
$320.7 6.5 %
$393.4 7.4 %
$495.9 8.8 %
Diluted EPS(1) % Growth
NA NA
$0.64 NA
$0.54 (15.5 %)
$0.70 29.4 %
$0.78 11.3 %
First Call EPS LTGR
Source: Earnings release for period ended March 31, 2005.
10.0 %
Section 1-67
Officer and Director Profile
Source: Aviator public filings, Wall Street research, and Bear Stearns estimates. (1) Based on 480.014 million basic shares and 20.696 million in-the-money options with a weighted average strike price of $3.89.
Aviator Organizational Chart Donald K. Peterson Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Jocelyne J. Attal Chief Marketing Officer
Pamela F. Craven Sr. Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary
Louis J. D’Ambrosio Group Vice President, Global Sales and Channels and Marketing
Maryanne DiMarzo Sr. Vice President, Human Resources
Patricia R. Hume Global Vice President, Small and Medium Business Solutions
Thomas A. Lesica Group Vice President, Global Information Technology and Business Operations
Karyn Mashima Sr. Vice President, Strategy and Technology
Garry K. McGuire Chief Financial Officer and Sr. Vice President, Corporate Development
Ravi Sethi President, Avaya Labs
Michael C. Thurk Group Vice President, Enterprise Communications Group
David P. Johnson Group Vice President, Europe, Middle East and Africa
Francis M. Scricco
Group Vice President, Avaya Global
Director Profile(1) Board Composition Insiders
1
Outsiders Total
9.1 %
10
90.9
11
100.0 %
Beneficial Ownership/ (% O/S)
Director Since
Term Expires
Age
Donald K. Peterson
2002
2007
55
Chairman and CEO
Previously, Mr. Peterson had been executive vice president and chief financial officer of Lucent Technologies from 1996-2000. He has also served in various capacities at Northern Telecom, State Mutual Life Assurance Company and Nortel. He is a member of the board of directors of Reynolds and Reynolds Co.; a member of the b oard of trustees of Worcester Polytechnic Institute; a member of the Council on Foreign Relations; a member of the World Economic Forum; a member of the board of overseers of the Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, and a trustee for the Committee for Economic Development.
5,784,834 1.3%
J ose ph P. L an dy
2 00 3
2 00 7
43
C o-p re sid en t o f Wa rbu rg Pi nc us
M r. L an dy h as be en c o- pr es id ent of Wa rb ur g Pi nc us LL C s inc e J an ua ry 2 002 a nd a managing general partner since October 2002. Mr. Landy is also a member of the board of Indus International Inc., Neustar, Inc., The Cobalt Group and ezGov, Inc.
70,095 NM
Mark Leslie
2001
2007
58
Managing director of Leslie Ventures
Mr. Leslie is currently the managing director of Leslie Ventures, a private investment company. He is also an adjunct professor at Stanford Graduate School of Business and Stanford University—Graduate Engineering. Mr. Leslie served as chairman of the board of Veritas Software Corporation until December 2001 and remains on the board as a director. Mr. Leslie has also worked at Leslie Consulting (owner) and Rugged Digital Systems (CEO). Mr. Leslie is a director of WebEx Communications, Inc. and a number of privately held high-technology corporations.
98,721 NM
Anthony P. Terracciano
2003
2007
65
Vice Chairman, American Water Mr. Terracciano is vice chairman, American Water Works Company, Inc. a nd is the Works Company former chairman of Dime Bancorp. He has held executive positions with First Union Corporation, First Fidelity Bancorporation, Mellon Bank Corp. and Chase Manhattan Bank.
148,343 NM
Bruce R. Bond
2002
2006
58
Former chairman and CEO of PictureTel Corporation
49,908 NM
Directors
Position
Description
Mr. Bond is the former chairman and CEO of PictureTel Corporation. Mr. Bond is a retired global telecommunications executive with 23 years of experience in the Bell System, including Ohio Bell, AT&T, US West and Mountain Bell. He has also spent six years with British Telecom, in London, UK, responsible for transforming the Products and Services Group as well as leading the National Business Communications Group.
Director Profile(1) (cont.) Beneficial Ownership/ (% O/S)
Director Since
Term Expires
Age
Dan C. Stanzione
2000
2006
59
President Emeritus, Bell Dr. Stanzione, president emeritus, Bell Laboratories, served as chief operating officer of Laboratories and former COO of Lucent Technologies, Inc. from November 1997 to October 1999 and as the president of Bell Lucent Technologies Laboratories at Lucent. Dr. Stanzione is also a director of Quest Diagnostics, Inc.
125,942 NM
Ronald L. Zarrella
2002
2006
54
Chairman and CEO of Bausch & Mr. Zarrella is chairman and CEO of Bausch & Lomb. He was president of General Motors Lomb North America before returning to Bausch & Lomb as c hairman and CEO in November 2001. He was previously with Bausch & Lomb from 1985 through 1994, first as president of its international division, then as president and COO. Mr. Zarrella is also a member of the board of US FIRST (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology).
64,939 NM
Ph il ip A . O de en
2 002
2 00 5
69
R et ir ed Ch ai rma n of TRW In c.
Mr. Ode en is th e r et ir ed cha ir ma n o f T RW Inc . M r. Od ee n w as pr es id en t a nd ch ie f e xe cu tiv e officer of BDM, which TRW acquired in 1997, and directed its growth and evolution as a multi-national information technology (IT) firm. Mr. Odeen has served in senior positions with the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the National Security Council staff. Mr. Odeen is also a member of the board of Convergys Corporation, The Reynolds and Reynolds Company and WGL Holdings, Inc.
125,131 NM
Hellene S. Runtagh
2003
2005
56
Former President and CEO of Berwind Group
Ms. Runtagh is the former president and CEO of Berwind Group, an enterprise with businesses in multiple industries. Prior to joining Berwind, from 1997 to 2001, Ms. Runtagh held senior level positions at Universal Studios and General Electric Company. Ms. Runtagh is also a member of the board of Covad Communications Group and Lincoln Electric Holdings.
51,908 NM
Paula Stern
2002
2005
59
Chairwoman of The Stern Group, Inc.
Dr. Stern is chairwoman of The Stern Group, Inc., an economic anal ysis and international business and trade advisory firm. She is currently a member of the US President’s Advisory Committee for Trade Policy and Negotiations and previously served as chairwoman of the US International Trade Commission. Dr. Stern is also a member of the board of Avon Products, Inc., Hasbro, Inc. and The Neiman Marcus Group.
51,213 NM
Richard F. Wallman
2003
2005
53
Former Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Honeywell International Inc.
Mr. Wallman is the former senior vice president and chief financial officer of Honeywell International Inc. Mr. Wallman previously served as chief financial officer of AlliedSignal Inc., prior to its merger with Honeywell. He also held various positions at IBM Corporation and Chrysler Corporation. Mr. Wallman is also a member of the board of Ariba, Inc., ExpressJet Holdings, Inc., Hayes-Lemmerz and Lear Corporation.
14,016 NM
Directors
(1)
Position
Source: January 4, 2005 Proxy and Company Website.
Description
Section 1-78
Shareholder Profile
(1)
Source: January 4, 2005 Proxy and Company Website.
Aviator Shareholder Profile Institutional Ownership (1)
Warburg Pincus(2)
Shares Held
47,955,205
Dodge & Cox Fidelity Management & Research Lord, Abbett & Co. Barclays Global Investors Friess Associates SSgA Funds Management Vanguard Group Wellington Management AIM Management Group Calamos Advisors Top 10 Institutions
24,811,519 16,979,323 16,214,594 15,082,667 12,913,000 11,960,949 11,883,167 11,103,715 10,080,020 7,282,718 186,266,877
Top 15 Institutions Top 20 Institutions All Other Institutions Total Institutions
216,434,130 236,594,164 131,293,886 367,888,050
% of Total
10.0 % 5.2 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.5 38.8 % 45.1 49.3 27.4 76.6 %
Insider Ownership
Donald Peterson Louis D’Ambrosio Michael Thurk
1,250,174 328,500 214,130 1,792,804
Other Officers and Directors Total Insiders
1,013,384 2,806,188
0.3 % 0.1 0.0 0.4 % 0.2 0.6 %
Other Shareholders
109,320,035
22.8
Basic Shares Outstanding
480,014,273
100.0 %
Section 1-89
Aviator Corporate Profile
(1) (2)
Source: LionShares. Holdings obtained at a cost basis of approximately $9.16 per share.
Aviator Profile(1) State of Incorporation
Delaware
Headquarters
Basking Ridge, NJ
1,700,000,000 authorized common shares (480,014,016 basic shares outstanding). 200,000 authorized preferred shares (none outstanding).
Capital Stock
Shareholder Meetings
Annual Meeting: Exact date and time determined by Board of Directors (usually February). Special Meeting: Special shareholder meetings can be called by (i) the Chairman of the Board or (ii) the majority of the directors of the Board. Shareholders can not call special meetings. Notice: Notice of a meeting must be given to all shareholders entitled to vote at least 10 business days but not more than 60 days in advance of the meeting. Record Date: Determined by the Board of Directors; may not be more than 60 days prior to nor less than 10 days before the related shareholder meeting, dividend, or other distribution. Business: Must be brought before meeting by (i) Board of Directors or presiding officer or (ii) on behalf of any stockholder of record who submits a timely request by certified mail (return receipt requested) that the proposal be included in the Company’s proxy statement. Such shareholder requests must comply with the provisions of Rule 14a-8 of the SEC act of 1934, as amended.
Aviator Profile (cont.)(1)
Directors
Cumulative Voting
Shareholder Action by Written Consent
Actions Requiring Super Majority Shareholder Vote
Number: Currently eleven directors; number determined by majority vote of directors then in office. Board must consist of at least three directors. Staggered Terms: Yes. Nomination: New Directors can be nominated by (i) the Board or (ii) any shareholder who provides proper and timely notice. For notice to be proper and timely, written notice must be made to the Secretary of the Corporation not later than the close of business on the 45th calendar day nor earlier than the close of business on the 75th calendar day prior to the first anniversary of the preceding year’s annual meeting. Vacancies: Vacancies and newly created directorships are filled by a majorit y of the directors then in office, including vacancies as a result of removal or an enlargement of the board. Removal: Any or all Directors may be removed for cause by a majority of shareholders at any annual or special shareholder meeting. No (default Delaware state statute). Yes; unanimous written consent of shareholders required (default Delaware statute).
80% shareholder vote required to amend articles V, VIII and IX of the Charter including: • •
(1)
Election of directors Re-election/removal of directors
Sources: SharkRepellent.net, Company Corporate Charter as amended on 1/12/03 and Amended and Restated By-laws.
Aviator Profile (cont.)(1)
(1)
Corporate Charter: As seen above, 80% vote required to amend certain provisions of relating to director voting and constituency.
Amendments
By-laws: The by-laws may be amended by at least a majority of the total number of directors then necessary to constitute a full Board. Any by-law may be further amended or reinstated by a majority of shareholders by vote at either an annual or special shareholder meeting (provided the amendment is timely included in order of business).
Officer and Director Indemnification
All Officers and Directors of the Company are fully indemnified by the Company unless they are found to have not acted in good faith.
Shareholder Rights Plan
Yes, triggered at 15%.
Sources: SharkRepellent.net, Company Corporate Charter as amended on 1/12/03 and Amended and Restated By-laws.
Section 210
Valuation of Aviator
(1)
Sources: SharkRepellent.net, Company Corporate Charter as amended on 1/12/03 and Amended and Restated By-laws.
Section 2-111
Aviator Top-Down Valuation
Summary Valuation of Aviator Calendar Year Ending December 31,
($ in millions) Aviator Enterprise Value Range as a Multiple of CY 2006E/2005E
Valuation Method
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Comparable Company Analysis
Comparable Acquisition Analysis
BSC REFERENCE RANGE
Enterprise Value Range
$4,500
$4,500
$5,500
$4,500
–
–
–
–
$5,750
$5,500
$6,500
$6,250
Add: Cash Option Proceeds
$688.3 80.4
– –
$688.3 212.0
Less: Total Debt Minority Interest Total Adjustments
$22.0 0.0 $746.7
–
$22.0 0.0 $878.3
–
Gross Equity Value
$5,246.7
$7,128.3
Gross Diluted Shares (M)
497.739
508.173
Equity Value Per Share
$10.54
$14.03
$9.53
$9.53
Stock Price (05/27/05) Premium/(Discount)
10.6 %
47.2 %
Revenues
0.83 x 0.89
EBITDA
CY 2006E/2005E (1)
EBIT
Net Income
EBIT
Net Income
Revenues
EBITDA
$5,395.8
$686.9
$419.0
$374.8
5,029.5
626.4
338.9
298.7
$5,395.8
$686.9
$419.0
$374.8
5,029.5
626.4
338.9
298.7
$5,395.8
$686.9
$419.0
$374.8
5,029.5
626.4
338.9
298.7
1.07 x – 1.14
6.6 – x 7.2 –
8.4 x 9.2
10.7 – x 13.3 –
13.7 x 17.0
13.8 – x 17.3 –
17.1 x 21.5
0.83 x 0.89
– 1.02 x – 1.09
6.6 x 7.2
8.0 x 8.8
10.7 – x 13.3 –
13.1 x 16.2
13.8 – x 17.3 –
16.5 x 20.6
1.02 x 1.09
– 1.20 x – 1.29
8.0 x 8.8
9.5 x – 10.4
13.1 – x 16.2 –
15.5 x 19.2
16.5 – x 20.6 –
19.1 x 24.0
0.83 x
– 1.16 x
6.6 x
–
9.1 x
10.7 x
–
14.9 x
13.8 x
–
18.5 x
$5,395.8
$686.9
$419.0
$374.8
0.89
– 1.24
7.2
– 10.0
13.3
–
18.4
17.3
–
23.2
5,029.5
626.4
338.9
298.7
–
– – –
Assumes 20.696 million in-the-money options at a weighted average strike price of $3.89 and 31.130 million in-the-money options at a weighted average strike price of $6.81.
Valuation Matrix ($ in millions, except per share data) Market $9.53
$10.00
$11.00
Potential Price per Share $12.00
$13.00
$14.00
Premium Over:
Stock Price (05/27/05)
$9.53
52-Week High
17.76
52-Week Low Average—Last 30 days
7.76 9.00
0.0 % (46.3 ) 22.8 5.9
4.9%
15.4%
25.9%
36.4%
46.9%
(43.7)
(38.1)
(32.4)
(26.8)
(21.2)
28.9 11.2
41.8 22.3
54.6 33.4
67.5 44.5
80.4 55.6
x Shares Outstanding plus Exercisable Options - Option Proceeds Equity Value
497.739 $80.4 $4,663.0
497.739 $80.4 $4,896.9
497.739 $80.4 $5,394.7
497.739 $80.4 $5,892.4
508.173 $212.0 $6,394.2
508.173 $212.0 $6,902.4
+ Debt + Minority Interest - Cash Enterprise Value
$22.0 – 688.3 $3,996.7
$22.0 – 688.3 $4,230.6
$22.0 – 688.3 $4,728.4
$22.0 – 688.3 $5,226.1
$22.0 – 688.3 $5,727.9
$22.0 – 688.3 $6,236.1
Equity Value as a Multiple of:
CY 2007E Net Income
$396.2
CY 2006E Net Income CY 2005E Net Income
367.3 296.8
Enterprise Value as a Multiple of: CY 2007E Revenue
$5,719.5
CY 2006E Revenue CY 2005E Revenue
5,395.8 5,029.5
CY 2007E EBITDA
$788.9
CY 2006E EBITDA CY 2005E EBITDA
686.9 626.4
11.8 x 12.7 15.7 0.70 x 0.74 0.79 5.1 x 5.8 6.4
12.4x
13.6x
14.9x
16.1x
17.4x
13.3 16.5
14.7 18.2
16.0 19.9
17.4 21.5
18.8 23.3
0.74x
0.83x
0.91x
1.00x
1.09x
0.78 0.84
0.88 0.94
0.97 1.04
1.06 1.14
1.16 1.24
5.4x
6.0x
6.6x
7.3x
6.2 6.8
6.9 7.5
7.6 8.3
8.3 9.1
9.1 10.0
9.2x
10.2x
11.1x
12.1x
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates. CY 2007E EBIT $513.8 7.8 8.2x (1) Multiple of Equity Value.
7.9x
CY 2006E EBIT CY 2005E EBIT
419.0 338.9
x 9.5 11.8
10.1 12.5
11.3 14.0
12.5 15.4
13.7 16.9
14.9 18.4
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ($ in millions, except per share data) WACC
PV of Period Cash Flows
15.00%
PV of Terminal Value PV of Enterprise
Implied FCF Growth Rate
PV per Share(1)
PV of Period Cash Flows
16.00%
PV of Terminal Value PV of Enterprise
Implied FCF Growth Rate
PV per Share(1)
PV of Period Cash Flows
17.00%
PV of Terminal Value PV of Enterprise
Implied FCF Growth Rate
PV per Share(1)
PV of Period Cash Flows PV of Terminal Value PV of Enterprise
Implied FCF Growth Rate
PV per Share(1)
18.00%
TV-Forward Revenue Multiple 0.85x 1.00x 1.15x
TV-Forward EBITDA Multiple 6.5x 7.5x 8.5x
TV-Forward EBIT Multiple 9.0x 10.0x 11.0x
TV-Forward Unlevered NI Multiple 14.0x 15.0x 16.0x
$1,345.3
$1,345.3
$1,345.3
$1,345.3
$1,345.3
$1,345.3
$1,345.3
$1,345.3
$1,345.3
$1,345.3
$1,345.3
3,075.8
3,618.6
4,161.3
3,539.5
4,084.1
4,628.6
3,419.5
3,799.5
4,179.4
3,510.7
3,761.5
$4,421.11
$4,963.89
$5,506.68
$4,884.87
$5,429.41
$5,973.95
$4,764.87
$5,144.82
$5,524.77
$4,856.06
$5,106.82
$5,357.59
6.8 %
7.9 %
8.8 %
7.8 %
8.7 %
9.4 %
7.6 %
8.3 %
8.8 %
7.7 %
8.2 %
8.6 %
$10.32
$11.41
$12.49
$11.25
$12.34
$13.42
$11.01
$11.77
$12.53
$11.19
$11.69
$12.19
$1,315.7
$1,315.7
$1,315.7
$1,315.7
$1,315.7
$1,315.7
$1,315.7
$1,315.7
$1,315.7
$1,315.7
$1,315.7
$1,315.7
2,960.3
3,482.7
4,005.1
3,406.6
3,930.7
4,454.8
3,291.2
3,656.8
4,022.5
3,378.9
3,620.3
$4,276.0
$4,798.4
$5,320.8
$4,722.3
$5,246.4
$5,770.5
$4,606.8
$4,972.5
$5,338.2
$4,694.6
$4,935.9
$5,177.3
7.7 %
8.9 %
9.8 %
8.7 %
9.6 %
10.4 %
8.5 %
9.2 %
9.8 %
8.7 %
9.1 %
9.5 %
$10.03
$11.08
$12.12
$10.92
$11.97
$13.02
$10.69
$11.42
$12.15
$10.87
$11.35
$11.83
$1,287.0
$1,287.0
$1,287.0
$1,287.0
$1,287.0
$1,287.0
$1,287.0
$1,287.0
$1,287.0
$1,287.0
$1,287.0
$1,287.0
2,850.1
3,353.0
3,856.0
3,279.8
3,784.4
4,289.0
3,168.6
3,520.7
3,872.8
3,253.1
3,485.5
$4,137.1
$4,640.1
$5,143.1
$4,566.9
$5,071.5
$5,576.0
$4,455.7
$4,807.7
$5,159.8
$4,540.2
$4,772.5
$5,004.9
8.6 %
9.8 %
10.7 %
9.7 %
10.6 %
11.3 %
9.4 %
10.1 %
10.7 %
9.6 %
10.1 %
10.5 %
$9.76
$10.76
$11.76
$10.61
$11.62
$12.63
$10.39
$11.09
$11.80
$10.56
$11.02
$11.49
$1,259.5
$1,259.5
$1,259.5
$1,259.5
$1,259.5
$1,259.5
$1,259.5
$1,259.5
$1,259.5
$1,259.5
$1,259.5
$1,259.5
2,744.9
3,229.3
3,713.6
3,158.7
3,644.7
4,130.6
3,051.6
3,390.7
3,729.8
3,133.0
3,356.8
$4,004.3
$4,488.7
$4,973.1
$4,418.2
$4,904.1
$5,390.1
$4,311.1
$4,650.2
$4,989.2
$4,392.5
$4,616.3
$4,840.1
9.6 %
10.8 %
11.7 %
10.6 %
11.5 %
12.3 %
10.4 %
11.1 %
11.7 %
10.6 %
11.0 %
11.4 %
$9.49
$10.46
$11.42
$10.32
$11.29
$12.26
$10.10
$10.78
$11.46
$10.27
$10.71
$11.16
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates.
$1,345.3 4,012.3
3,861.6
3,717.9
3,580.6
Free Cash Flow Analysis—WholeCo ($ in millions) Projected FYE September 30, 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Revenue
$4,934.0
$5,316.0
$5,635.0
$5,973.1
$6,331.6
$6,711.5
EBITDA
$615.4
$659.5
$769.2
$847.9
$952.8
$1,010.0
Depreciation & Amortization
(294.7 )
(266.1 )
(273.3 )
(280.5 )
(288.0 )
(305.3 )
EBIT
$320.7 %
$393.4 6.5 7.4 %
$495.9 8.8 %
$567.4 9.5 %
$664.8 10.5 %
$704.7 10.5 %
($38.7 ) 12.1 %
($42.8 ) 10.9 %
($109.1 ) 22.0 %
($192.9 ) 34.0 %
($226.0 ) 34.0 %
($239.6 ) 34.0 %
$282.0
$350.6
$386.8
$374.5
$438.8
$465.1
$294.7 (49.1 ) (155.2 ) 3.4
$266.1 (65.2 ) (172.7 ) 9.6
$273.3 (26.0 ) (171.6 ) (11.4 )
$280.5 (25.5 ) (173.5 ) (9.0 )
$288.0 (23.8 ) (175.4 ) (9.8 )
$375.8
$388.4
$451.1
$447.1
$517.7
EBIT Margin
Taxes Tax Rate
Unlevered Net Income
Depreciation & Amortization (Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital Capital Expenditures & Additions to Intangible Assets Other Cash Flows
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates. Note: Discounted back to May 01, 2005. (1) Assumes $855.0 million cash, $80.4 million option proceeds, $188.0 million debt and 500.710 gross diluted shares.
2010
% Growth
NA
3 %
16 %
(1 %)
16 %
Comparable Company Trading Analysis—Aviator ($ in millions, except per share amounts) Enterprise Value
$9.08
$4,185.6
$ 3,518.6
0.70 x
5.6 x
Alcatel
10.95
15,286.5
14,812.2
6.8x
9.6x
Aspect Cisco Inter-Tel InterVoice Nortel Polycom
9.02 18.21 19.23 11.00 2.62 15.66
575.3 117,893.7 588.3 434.9 9,330.1 1,562.4
415.5 101,368.7 373.4 394.7 10,079.1 1,347.5
0.88 x 1.12 3.93 0.83 2.35 1.14 2.33
4.9 11.1 5.8 11.7 12.6 10.1
6.6 12.6 6.4 15.1 19.9 13.9
1.80 x 1.14
9.0 x 10.1
12.0x
1.14 x 0.81 0.82 0.39 0.46
8.3 x 5.6 5.4 6.1 5.6
9.6x
0.72 x 0.81
6.2 x 5.6
12.8x
$10.35 12.69 40.95 9.78 25.07 12.94 24.90 12.98 9.62 9.73 5.38 6.14
Aviator
Stock Price 05/09/05
Enterprise Value/CY 2005E Revenue EBITDA EBIT
Equity Value
Company
10.4x
Enterprise Value/CY 2006E Revenue EBITDA EBIT
P/E CY 2005E
CY 2006E
0.65 x
5.1 x
8.4 x
15.7 x
12.7 x
0.85 x 1.06 3.53 0.77 2.11 1.08 2.10
6.4 x 4.3 9.9 5.1 9.2 9.1 8.5
9.0 x 5.4 11.2 5.8 11.4 12.5 11.5
14.5 x 15.8 19.3 13.8 18.4 29.7 20.3
12.0 x 13.5 17.0 12.0 16.9 18.6 17.2
1.64 x 1.08
7.5 x 8.5
9.6 x 11.2
18.8 x 18.4
15.3 x 16.9
0.95 x 0.76 0.75 0.36 0.44
6.7 x 5.1 4.8 5.1 4.3
8.0 x 8.2 6.8 6.7 10.0
14.8 x 13.7 12.5 11.5 NM
12.5 x 12.1 10.8 9.0 19.7
9.6
0.65 x 0.75
5.2 x 5.1
7.9 x 8.0
13.1 x 13.1
12.8 x 12.1
$10.02 7.59 15.35 8.80 16.10 17.31 14.18
$7.99 5.94 10.03 5.85 11.75 14.96 10.93
$10.63 12.87 39.51 9.78 24.28 13.12 24.17
$10.35 7.35 15.19 8.49 14.20 14.06 13.16
$9.06 6.01 10.89 6.40 11.05 12.01 11.14
$10.08 10.86 12.91 9.68 12.38 19.09 13.53
$10.33 11.37 13.98 10.32 13.89 15.12 14.12
11.90 8.51 8.30 9.15 8.55
7.98 7.64 6.95 8.09 20.02
11.74 9.68 9.58 5.42 6.28
10.66 8.55 8.11 8.56 7.36
8.17 8.38 7.21 7.13 9.88
10.26 9.62 8.89 8.27 NA
10.65 10.36 9.40 8.10 15.92
Enterprise Communications
Mean Median
12.6
Enterprise / Telecom Services
Black Box
34.21
607.6
637.4
Convergys CGI Group Getronics Unisys
13.04 5.61 1.62 6.88
1,862.9 2,506.0 1,372.2 2,320.6
2,163.4 2,684.5 1,335.0 2,711.2
Mean Median
9.1 8.1 9.7 27.3
Aviator—Implied Enterprise Value Enterprise Communications
Alcatel Aspect Cisco Inter-Tel InterVoice Nortel Polycom Enterprise/Telecom Services
Black Box Convergys CGI Group Getronics Unisys
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates.
Comparable Transaction Multiples and Implied Valuation—Aviator ($ in millions) Target Acquiror Enterprise Communications
Target
Transaction Date
Equity Value
Enterprise Value
Revenue
ScanSoft
Nuance
05/09/2005
$212.5
$113.8
Avaya
Tenovis
11/18/2004
370.5
635.5
1.49 x 1.00
Polycom Alcatel Nortel InterVoice
PictureTel Genesys Periphonics Brite Voice
05/22/2001 09/28/1999 08/23/1999 04/26/1999
357.7 1,526.8 419.6 172.0
358.4 1,465.3 392.0 159.5
0.92 7.25 2.27 0.97
Enterprise Value/Forward EBITDA
NA 6.5 x 6.7 26.1 14.7 10.5
EBIT
Forward P/E
49.5 x NA
42.1 x NA
15.7 33.8 19.9 16.8
20.7 53.0 31.1 27.4
Enterprise/Telecom Services
Nortel IBM Warburg-Providence Cisco Avaya CGI GTCR
PEC Solutions Corio Telcordia NetSolve Expanets AMS Syniverse
04/26/2005 01/25/2005 11/18/2004 09/09/2004 11/26/2003 03/09/2004 02/14/2002
471.1 182.0 1,350.0 128.0 152.0 858.0 770.0
448.0 174.1 1,350.0 89.0 152.0 795.7 770.0
1.65 x 2.94 1.53 2.21 0.36 0.78 2.45
11.9 x NA 7.7 NA NA 8.9 6.3
13.2 x NM 8.9 NM NM 17.3 7.4
22.5 x NM NA NM NA 31.3 NA
$16.21 11.35 10.56 72.93 23.86 11.05
NA 9.48 9.73 33.57 19.56 14.40
NM NA 11.55 23.14 14.24 12.25
NM NA 11.58 29.39 17.31 15.27
$17.77 30.46 16.57 23.27 5.02 9.21 25.64
$16.12 NA 10.96 NA NA 12.37 9.24
$9.95 NA 7.19 NA NA 12.57 6.23
$12.57 NA NA NA NA 17.42 NA
Aviator—Implied Valuation Acquiror Target Enterprise Communications
ScanSoft Avaya Polycom Alcatel Nortel InterVoice
Nuance Tenovis PictureTel Genesys Periphonics Brite Voice
Enterprise/Telecom Services
Nortel IBM Warburg-Providence Cisco Avaya CGI GTCR
PEC Solutions Corio Telcordia NetSolve Expanets AMS Syniverse
Note: Based on Aviator’s Forward Revenue of $4934.0 million, Forward EBITDA of $615.4 million, Forward EBIT of $320.7 million, and Forward Net I ncome of $276.2 million. Note: Based on Aviator’s Cash of $855.0 million, Debt of $188.0 million, and Option Proceeds of $80.4 million.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Analysis—Aviator Assumptions
Unlevered Beta Calculation
(1)
Risk-free Rate
4.39 %
Market Risk Premium(2)
7.20
Aviator Marginal Tax Rate
12.0
Barra Beta
Debt/Equity(3)
Unlevered Beta(4)
Alcatel Aspect Cisco Inter-Tel InterVoice Nortel Polycom
1.62 1.64 1.45 1.32 1.41 2.21 1.61
39.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 40.1 0.0
1.20 1.64 1.45 1.32 1.38 1.63 1.61
Mean Enterprise/Telecom Services
1.61
11.7%
1.46
Black Box Convergys Corporation CGI Group Getronics Unisys
1.24 1.14 1.00 1.99 1.75
6.7% 18.1 14.7 15.1 45.3
1.17 0.98 0.89 1.76 1.25
Mean
1.43
20.0%
1.21
Consolidated Mean Aviator
1.53 2.44
15.1% 4.5
1.36 2.35
Comparable Company Enterprise Communications
WACC Calculation—Based on Aviator’s Unlevered Beta Debt/ Equity(4)
Debt/ Capitalization
Levered Beta(5)
10.0 % 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
9.1%
2.56 2.76 2.97 3.18 3.38
16.7 23.1 28.6 33.3
6.00%
7.00%
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
22.8%
21.2%
21.3%
21.4%
21.4%
21.5%
24.3 25.8 27.3 28.7
21.1 21.0 21.0 20.9
21.3 21.2 21.2 21.2
21.4 21.4 21.5 21.5
21.6 21.7 21.7 21.8
21.7 21.9 22.0 22.1
6.00%
7.00%
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 8.00%
Cost of Equity(6)
WACC Calculation—Based on Industry Average Unlevered Beta Debt/ Equity(4)
Debt/ Capitalization
Levered Beta(6)
9.00%
10.00%
10.0 % 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
9.1%
1.53
15.4%
14.5%
14.6%
14.7%
14.7%
14.8%
1.66 1.78 1.90 2.03
16.3 17.2 18.1 19.0
14.5 14.5 14.4 14.4
14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7
14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0
14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3
15.1 15.3 15.4 15.6
16.7 23.1 28.6 33.3
Cost of Equity(7)
Note: Based on Aviator’s Forward Revenue of $4934.0 million, Forward EBITDA of $615.4 million, Forward EBIT of $320.7 million, and Forward Net I ncome of $276.2 million. Note: Based on Aviator’s Cash of $855.0 million, Debt of $188.0 million, and Option Proceeds of $80.4 million.
Section 2-212
Aviator Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation Note: Barra Beta as of May 9, 2005. WACC = Kd * D/(D+E) + Ke * E/(D+E) . (1) Yield on 20-year Treasury Bond as of March 9, 2005. (2) Long-term horizon expected equity risk premium. Source: Ibbotson Associates. (3) Total debt divided by market value of equity. (4) Unlevered Beta = Predicted Beta / (1+ (1-tax)*D/E). (5) Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta * (1+(1-tax)*D/E)). (6) Cost of Equity = Risk-free Rate + (Levered Beta * Market Risk Premium) + Market Capitalization Premium.
Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation ($ in millions) Value Range as a Multiple of CY 2006E/2005E Valuation Method
Globa l Communications Group
Enterprise Value Range
$2,000
–
$2,500
Revenues
0.80 x 0.86
Global Services
$2,500
–
$3,750
0.86 0.92
BSC REFERENCE RANGE
$4,500
–
$6,250
0.83 x 0.89 x
–
1.01 x
– 1.08 –
EBITDA
7.8 – x 9.1
1.29
5.8
– 1.38
6.1
–
1.16 x
6.5 x
– 1.24
7.18
– 11.3 –
12.7 – x
15.9 x
16.7
20.9
8.7
9.5
9.2
11.4
9.1 x
10.7 x
– 9.97
13.3
– –
Unlevered Net Income
EBIT
9.8 x
– – – –
–
CY 2006E/2005E
14.5
17.1
12.9
14.9 x
12.2 x
18.4
15.1
EBIT
Unlevered Net Income
$2,486.8
$256.3
$156.9
$138.0
x 23.8
2,319.0
220.4
119.5
105.1
16.2
2,908.9
433.0
263.4
231.8
–
19.4
2,710.5
406.7
219.8
193.4
–
16.9 $5,395.8
$689.3
$420.2
$369.8
–
x 20.9
5,029.5
627.1
339.3
298.6
x 19.0 – 10.8
EBITDA
18.1 –
14.2
Revenues
–
Section 2-313
Enterprise Communications Group Valuation
Summary Valuation—Global Communications Group ($ in millions) Global Communicat io ions Solu ti tions Valu e Range as a Multip llee of CY 2006E/2005E Valuation Method
Enterprise Value Range
Revenues
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
$2,000
–
$2,600
0.80 x 0.86
–
Comparable Co C ompany An Analysis
$2,000
–
$2,500
0.80 x 0.86
–
0.88 x 0.95
–
0.80 x 0.86
–
Comparable Acquisition Analysis
BSC REFERENCE RANGE
$2,200
$2,000
–
–
$2,600
$2,500
–
–
–
–
EBITDA
1.05 x 1.12
7.8 x 9.1
–
1.01 x 1.08
7.8
1.05 x 1.12 1.01 x 1.08
EBIT
12.7 x 16.7
–
–
10.1 x 11.8
–
9.8
12.7
9.1
–
11.3
8.6
–
10.1
–
7.8 9.1
CY 2006E/2005E
Unlevered Net Income
14.5 x 19.0
–
–
16.6 x 21.8
–
15.9
14.5
16.7
–
20.9
10.1
14.0
–
11.8
18.4
–
9.8
–
11.3
Revenues
EBITDA
EBIT
$256.3
$156.9
Unlevered Net Income
$2,486.8
–
18.8 x 24.7
$138.0
2,319.0
220.4
119.5
105.1
–
18.1
$2,486.8
$256.3
$156.9
$138.0
19.0
–
23.8
2,319.0
220.4
119.5
105.1
16.6
15.9
–
18.8
$2,486.8
$256.3
$156.9
$138.0
–
21.8
20.9
–
24.7
2,319.0
220.4
119.5
105.1
12.7
–
15.9
14.5
–
18.1
$2,486.8
$256.3
$156.9
$138.0
16.7
–
20.9
19.0
–
23.8
2,319.0
220.4
119.5
105.1
Valuation Matrix at Selected Enterprise Values—Global Communications Segment ($ in millions) $2,000.0
$2,100.0
Enterprise Value $2,200.0 $2,300.0
$2,400.0
$2,500.0
Enterprise Value as a Multiple of:
CY 2007E Unlevered Net Income
$172.6
11.6 x
12.2 x
12.7 x
13.3 x
13.9 x
14.5 x
CY 2006E Unlevered Net Income
138.0
14.5
15.2
15.9
16.7
17.4
18.1
CY 2005E Unlevered Net Income
105.1
19.0
20.0
20.9
21.9
22.8
23.8
CY 2007E Revenue
$2,636.0
0.76 x
0.80 x
0.83 x
0.87 x
0.91 x
0.95 x
CY 2006E Revenue
2,486.8
0.80
0.84
0.88
0.92
0.97
1.01
CY 2005E Revenue
2,319.0
0.86
0.91
0.95
0.99
1.03
1.08
CY 2007E EB ITDA
$298.3
6.7 x
7.0 x
7.4 x
7.7 x
8.0 x
CY 2006E EB ITDA
256.3
7.8
8.2
8.6
9.0
9.4
9.8
CY 2005E EB ITDA
220.4
9.1
9.5
10.0
10.4
10.9
11.3
CY 2007E EB IT
$196.2
10.2 x
10.7 x
11.2 x
11.7 x
12.2 x
12.7 x
CY 2006E EB IT
156.9
12.7
13.4
14.0
14.7
15.3
15.9
CY 2005E EB IT
119.5
16.7
17.6
18.4
19.2
20.1
20.9 x
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates. Note: EBITDA, EBIT, EBIT, and Unlevered Net Income are all adjusted for allocation of corporate overhead.
8.4 x
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis—Global Communications Group ($ in millions, except per share data) WACC
PV of Period Cash Flows PV of Terminal Value
14.50%
PV of Enterprise
Forward Revenue Multiple 1.00x 1.10x 1.20x
$508.7 1,700.2
$508.7 1,870.2
$508.7 2,040.2
$508.7 1,786.1
$508.7 2,009.3
$508.7 2,232.6
$2,208.8
$2,378.9
$2,548.9
$2,294.7
$2,518.0
$2,741.3
Implied FCF Growth Rate
PV of Period Cash Flows PV of Terminal Value
8.9%
15.00%
PV of Enterprise
15.50%
PV of Enterprise
Implied FCF Growth Rate
9.2%
9.8%
$502.9 1,752.0
$502.9 1,971.0
$502.9 2,190.0
$2,170.7
$2,337.4
$2,504.2
$2,254.9
$2,473.9
$2,692.9
9 .9 %
10.3%
9.7%
10.2%
$497.3 1,799.7
$497.3 1,963.3
$497.3 1,718.7
$497.3 1,933.6
$497.3 2,148.4
$2,133.3
$2,296.9
$2,460.5
$2,216.0
$2,430.8
$2,645.7
10.4%
10.8%
10.1%
10.7%
$491.7 1,765.6
$491.7 1,926.1
$491.7 1,686.2
$491.7 1,897.0
$491.7 2,107.8
$2,096.8
$2,257.3
$2,417.9
$2,177.9
$2,388.7
$2,599.5
10.9%
11.3%
10.6%
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates. Note: EBITDA, EBIT, EBIT, and Unlevered Net Income are all adjusted for allocation of corporate overhead.
11.2%
$2,038.0
11.7%
$508.7 1,690.3 $2,198.9
8.3%
$502.9 1,500.1 $2,003.0
$2,359.9
$502.9 1,658.0 $2,160.9
$497.3 1,471.6 $1,968.9
$497.3 1,626.5
9.8%
$497.3 1,781.4 $2,278.7
9.9%
$491.7 1,595.8 $2,087.5
9.8%
$502.9 1,815.9
9 .4 %
9.3%
$1,935.5
9 .4 %
$2,318.8
$2,123.8
$491.7 1,443.8
$508.7 1,851.2
8.9%
8.8%
11.2%
$491.7 1,605.1
10.4%
$508.7 1,529.3
10.7%
$497.3 1,636.1
9.9%
Forward EBIT Multiple 9.5x 10.5x 11.5x
10.2%
$502.9 2,001.3
Implied FCF Growth Rate
16.00%
9.8%
$502.9 1,834.5
9.4%
PV of Enterprise
PV of Period Cash Flows PV of Terminal Value
9 .4 %
$502.9 1,667.7
Implied FCF Growth Rate
PV of Period Cash Flows PV of Terminal Value
Forward EBITDA Multiple 8.0x 9.0x 10.0x
10.3%
10.3%
$491.7 1,747.7 $2,239.5
10.8%
Free Cash Flow Analysis—Global Communications Group ($ in millions) Projected FYE September 30, 2007 2008
2005
2006
2009
2010
Revenue
$2,275.3
$2,450.1
$2,597.1
$2,752.9
$2,918.1
$3,093.2
EBITDA
$212.3
$244.8
$290.9
$320.4
$359.7
$406.2
Depreciation & Amortization
(101.7 )
(98.8 )
(101.4 )
(104.1 )
(106.9 )
(113.3 )
EBIT
$110.6 %
$146.0 4.9 6.0 %
$189.4 7.3 %
$216.3 7.9 %
$252.8 8.7 %
$292.9 9.5 %
($13.3 ) 12.1 %
($15.9 ) 10.9 %
($41.7 ) 22.0 %
($73.5 ) 34.0 %
($86.0 ) 34.0 %
($99.6 ) 34.0 %
$97.3
$130.1
$147.8
$142.8
$166.8
$193.3
$101.7 – (16.9 ) (53.5 ) 1.2
$98.8 – (24.2 ) (64.1 ) 3.6
$101.4 – (9.6 ) (63.7 ) (4.2 )
$104.1 – (9.4 ) (64.4 ) (3.3 )
$106.9 – (8.8 ) (65.1 ) (3.6 )
$129.6
$144.2
$171.6
$169.7
$196.2
EBIT Margin
Taxes Tax Rate Unlevered Net Income
Depreciation & Amortization Deferred Taxes (Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital Capital Expenditures Other Cash Flows Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Note: Discounted back to May 1, 1, 2005.
Comparable Company Multiples and Implied Valuation—Global Communications Group ($ in millions) Stock Price 05/09/05
Company Aviator
Equity Value
Enterprise Value
Enterprise Value/CY 2005E Revenue EBITDA EBIT
Enterprise Value/CY 2006E Revenue EBITDA EBIT
P/E CY 2005E
CY 2006E
$9.08
$4,185.6
$3,518.6
0.70 x
5.6
x
10.4 x
0.65
x
5.1 x
8.4 x
15.7 x
12.7 x
10.95
15,286.5
14,812.2
0.88 x
6.8
x
9.6 x
0.85
x
6.4 x
9.0 x
14.5 x
12.0 x
Enterprise Communications
Alcatel Aspect
9.02
575.3
415.5
1.12
4.9
6.6
1.06
4.3
5.4
15.8
Cisco
18.21
117,893.7
101,368.7
3.93
11.1
12.6
3.53
9.9
11.2
19.3
17.0
Inter-Tel
19.23
588.3
373.4
0.83
5.8
6.4
0.77
5.1
5.8
13.8
12.0
InterVoice
11.00
434.9
394.7
2.35
11.7
15.1
2.11
9.2
11.4
18.4
16.9
2.62
9,330.1
10,079.1
1.14
12.6
19.9
1.08
9.1
12.5
29.7
18.6
15.66
1,562.4
1,347.5
2.33
10.1
13.9
2.10
8.5
11.5
20.3
17.2
1.80 x 1.14
9.0
1.64x
10.1
12.0 x 12.6
7.5 x 8.5
9.6 x 11.2
Alcatel
$2,045.3
$1,501.5
$1,145.4
$2,108.1
$1,649.2
$1,414.7
$1,525.8
$1,662.8
Aspect
2,585.7
1,072.9
783.4
2,626.5
1,091.5
844.6
1,663.9
1,858.5
Cisco
9,108.5
2,438.6
1,505.0
8,773.4
2,549.4
1,757.1
2,027.0
2,348.5
Inter-Tel
1,913.5
1,286.1
768.6
1,912.3
1,302.3
917.0
1,454.6
1,659.1
InterVoice
5,443.4
2,570.3
1,809.1
5,257.9
2,366.2
1,785.7
1,934.1
2,331.9
Nortel
2,643.3
2,784.2
2,375.0
2,682.5
2,339.8
1,965.8
3,125.2
2,562.3
Polycom
5,402.9
2,233.3
1,664.8
5,234.1
2,172.2
1,802.9
2,138.4
2,375.6
Nortel Polycom Mean Median Global Communications Implied Enterprise Value
x
1.08
18.8 x 18.4
13.5
15.3 x 16.9
Group—
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates.
Comparable M&A Transaction Multiples and Implied Valuation—Global Communications Group ($ in millions) Acquiror
Target
Transaction Date
Target Equity Value
Enterprise Value
Revenue
Enterprise Value/Forward EBITDA
EBIT
Forward P/E
ScanSoft Avaya
Nuance Tenovis
05/09/2005 11/18/2004
$212.5 370.5
$113.8 635.5
1.49x 1.00x
NA 6.5x
49.5x NA
42.1x NA
UT Starcom
Commworks (3Com)
04/23/2004
100.0
100.0
0.91x
NA
NA
NA
Cisco
Latitude
11/12/2003
92.5
69.9
2.20x
NA
NA
NA
Melita Polycom
Concerto PictureTel
10/06/2003 05/22/2001
141.9 357.7
113.8 358.4
1.07x 0.92x
18.0x 6.7x
23.0x 15.7x
38.1x 20.7x
Cisco
Active Voice
11/10/2000
295.3
275.8
3.21x
47.6x
96.3x
122.1x
Alcatel
Genesys
09/28/1999
1,526.8
1,465.3
7.25x
26.1x
33.8x
53.0x
Nortel
Periphonics
08/23/1999
419.6
392.0
2.27x
14.7x
19.9x
31.1x
InterVoice Cisco
Brite Voice Geotel
04/26/1999 04/12/1999
172.0 1,914.1
159.5 1,854.4
0.97x 25.73x
10.5x 85.7x
16.8x 92.3x
27.4x 132.5x
Nortel
Bay Networks
Lucent
Octel
06/15/1998 07/17/1997
8,520.3 1,755.8
7,912.7
2.70x
1,665.5
NA
2.74x
NA
NA
14.4x
22.8x
34.7x
NM
Global Communication Group—Implied Valuation Acquiror Target
ScanSoft
Nuance
$3,463.3
NA
NM
Avaya
Tenovis
2,319.0
1,432.8
NA
NA
UT Starcom
Commworks (3Com)
2,110.3
NA
NA
NA
Cisco
Latitude
5,101.8
NA
NA
NA
Melita
Concerto
2,481.3
3,967.6
2,748.1
4,006.0
Polycom
PictureTel
2,133.5
1,476.8
1,875.9
2,176.5
Cisco
Active Voice
7,443.9
NM
NM
NM
Alcatel
Genesys
NM
NM
NM
NM
Nortel
Periphonics
NM
3,240.2
2,377.7
3,270.0
InterVoice
Brite Voice
2,249.4
2,314.5
2,007.3
2,881.0
Cisco
Geotel
NM
NM
NM
Nortel
Bay Networks Lucent
Octel
6,261.2 6,354.0
NA 3,174.1
NA 2,724.2
NM NA 3,648.5
Note: The P/E multiple is applied to Unlevered Net Income. Note: Based on Enterprise Communications segment Forward Revenue of $2319.0 million, Forward EBITDA of $220.4 million, Forward EBIT of $119.5 million, and Forward Net Income of $105.1 million.
Cost of Capital Analysis—Enterprise Communications Group Assumptions
Unlevered Beta Calculation
Risk-free Rate(1)
4.39 %
Market Risk Premium(2)
7.20
Harris Marginal Tax Rate
12.0
Comparable Company
Barra Beta
Debt/ Equity(3)
Unlevered Beta(4)
Global Communications Group
Alcatel Aspect Cisco Inter-Tel InterVoice Nortel Polycom Consolidated Mean Aviator
1.62 1.64 1.45 1.32 1.41 2.21 1.61
39.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 40.1 0.0
%
1.20 1.64 1.45 1.32 1.38 1.63 1.61
1.61
11.7
%
1.46
2.44
4.5
%
2.35
WACC Calculation—Based on Industry Average Unlevered Beta—Global Communications Group Debt/ Equity(4)
Debt/ Capitalization
10.0 % 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
9.1 % 16.7 23.1 28.6 33.3
Levered Beta(5)
1.59 1.72 1.85 1.98 2.11
Cost of Equity(6)
6.00%
7.00%
15.9 % 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.6
14.9 % 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.8
15.0 % 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 8.00%
15.1 % 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4
9.00%
15.1 % 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.7
10.00%
15.2 % 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0
Note: The P/E multiple is applied to Unlevered Net Income. Note: Based on Enterprise Communications segment Forward Revenue of $2319.0 million, Forward EBITDA of $220.4 million, Forward EBIT of $119.5 million, and Forward Net Income of $105.1 million.
Section 2-414
Enterprise Services Valuation
Note: Barra Beta as of May 9, 2005. WACC = Kd * D/(D+E) + Ke * E/(D+E) . (1) Yield on 20-year Treasury Bond as of May 9, 2005. (2) Long-term horizon expected equity risk premium. Source: Ibbotson Associates. (3) Total debt divided by market value of equity. (4) Unlevered Beta = Predicted Beta/(1+ (1-tax)*D/E). (5) Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta * (1+(1-tax)*D/E). (6) Cost of Equity = Risk-free Rate + (Levered Beta * Market Risk Premium) + Market Capitalization Premium.
Summary Valuation—Global Services ($ in millions) Global Services Value Range as a Multiple of CY 2006E/2005E Valuation Method
Enterprise Value Range
Revenues
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
$2,500
–
$3,500
0.80 x 0.86
–
Comparable Company Analysis
$2,500
–
$3,500
0.86 x 0.92
–
0.95 x 1.01
–
0.86 x 0.92
–
Comparable Acquisition Analysis
BSC REFERENCE RANGE
CONFIDENTIAL
$2,750
$2,500
–
–
$4,000
$3,750
–
–
–
–
EBITDA
1.05 x 1.12
7.8 x 6.1
–
1.20 x 1.29
5.8
EBIT
CY 2006E/2005E
Unlevered Net Income
Revenues
10.8 x 12.9
–
$2,908.9
EBITDA
EBIT
Unlevered Net Income
$433.0
$263.4
$231.8
9.5 x 11.4
–
–
8.1 x 8.6
–
13.3 x 15.9
–
15.1 x 18.1
2,710.5
406.7
219.8
193.4
–
8.1
9.5
–
13.3
10.8
–
15.1
$2,908.9
$433.0
$263.4
$231.8
6.1
–
8.6
11.4
–
15.9
12.9
–
18.1
2,710.5
406.7
219.8
193.4
1.38 x 1.48
6.4
–
9.2
10.4
–
15.2
11.9
–
17.3
$2,908.9
$433.0
$263.4
$231.8
6.8
–
9.8
12.5
–
18.2
14.2
–
20.7
2,710.5
406.7
219.8
193.4
1.29 x 1.38
5.8
–
8.7
9.5
–
14.2
10.8
–
16.2
$2,908.9
$433.0
$263.4
$231.8
6.1
–
9.2
11.4
–
17.1
12.9
–
19.4
2,710.5
406.7
219.8
193.4
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56
Valuation Matrix at Selected Enterprise Values—Global Services ($ in millions) $2,500.0
$2,750.0
Enterprise Value $3,000.0 $3,250.0
$3,500.0
$3,750.0
Enterprise Value as a Multiple of:
CY 2007E Unlevered Net Income
$279.5
10.7 x
11.6 x
12.5 x
13.4 x
CY 2006E Unlevered Net Income
231.8
10.8
8.9 x
11.9
9.8 x
12.9
14.0
15.1
16.2
CY 2005E Unlevered Net Income
193.4
12.9
14.2
15.5
16.8
18.1
19.4
0.81 x
0.89 x
0.97 x
1.05 x
1.14 x
1.22 x
CY 2007E Revenue
$3,083.5
CY 2006E Revenue
2,908.9
0.86
0.95
1.03
1.12
1.20
1.29
CY 2005E Revenue
2,710.5
0.92
1.01
1.11
1.20
1.29
1.38
CY 2007E EBITDA
$491.8
5.1 x
5.6 x
6.1 x
6.6 x
7.1 x
7.6 x
CY 2006E EBITDA
433.0
5.8
6.4
6.9
7.5
8.1
8.7
CY 2005E EBITDA
406.7
6.1
6.8
7.4
8.0
8.6
9.2
CY 2007E EBIT
$317.6
10.2 x
11.0 x
11.8 x
CY 2006E EBIT
263.4
7.9 x 9.5
10.4
8.7 x
11.4
9.4 x
12.3
13.3
14.2
CY 2005E EBIT
219.8
11.4
12.5
13.6
14.8
15.9
17.1
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates. Note: EBITDA, EBIT, and Unlevered Net Income are all adjusted for allocation of corporate overhead.
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56
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis—Global Services ($ in millions) WACC
PV of Period Cash Flows PV of Terminal Value
13.50%
PV of Enterprise
Forward Revenue Multiple 0.80x 0.95x 1.10x
$873.3 1,653.9
$873.3 1,964.0
$873.3 2,274.1
$873.3 1,920.3
$873.3 2,304.3
$873.3 2,688.4
$2,837.4
$3,147.5
$2,793.6
$3,177.7
$3,561.7
4.3%
14.00%
PV of Enterprise
14.50%
PV of Enterprise
Implied FCF Growth Rate
5.4%
6.7%
7.6%
$863.5 2,230.4
$863.5 1,883.3
$863.5 2,260.0
$863.5 2,636.7
$2,485.6
$2,789.7
$3,093.8
$2,746.8
$3,123.5
$3,500.1
6.1%
7.1%
5.9%
7.2%
$853.8 2,187.6
$853.8 1,847.3
$853.8 2,216.7
$853.8 2,586.2
$2,444.8
$2,743.1
$3,041.4
$2,701.0
$3,070.5
$3,439.9
5.2%
6.5%
7.6%
6.4%
7.6%
$844.3 2,145.9
$844.3 1,812.0
$844.3 2,174.4
$844.3 2,536.8
$2,405.0
$2,697.6
$2,990.2
$2,656.3
$3,018.7
$3,381.1
8.0%
6.8%
8.1%
$853.8 2,237.5
7.9%
$853.8 2,500.7 $3,354.5
7.7%
$844.3 2,194.8 $3,039.1
7.3%
$863.5 2,549.6
7.2%
6.9%
$844.3 1,936.6
7.4%
$3,413.1
$3,091.3
$2,780.9
9.0%
$863.5 2,281.2 $3,144.7
$853.8 1,974.3
$873.3 2,599.6 $3,472.9
6.8%
6.4%
8.6%
$844.3 1,853.3
7.0%
$863.5 2,012.8
$2,828.1
$844.3 1,560.7
5.6%
5.9%
8.1%
$853.8 1,889.3
$873.3 2,326.0 $3,199.3
$2,876.3
$853.8 1,591.0
Implied FCF Growth Rate
15.00%
6.6%
$863.5 1,926.2
4.7%
PV of Enterprise
PV of Period Cash Flows PV of Terminal Value
5.6%
$873.3 2,052.3 $2,925.7
$863.5 1,622.1
Implied FCF Growth Rate
PV of Period Cash Flows PV of Terminal Value
Forward EBIT Multiple 7.5x 8.5x 9.5x
$2,527.2
Implied FCF Growth Rate
PV of Period Cash Flows PV of Terminal Value
Forward EBITDA Multiple 5.0x 6.0x 7.0x
8.4%
$844.3 2,453.0 $3,297.3
8.2%
8.9%
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates. Note: EBITDA, EBIT, and Unlevered Net Income are all adjusted for allocation of corporate overhead.
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Free Cash Flow Analysis—Global Services ($ in millions) 2005
2006
Projected FYE September 30, 2007 2008
2009
2010
Revenue
$2,658.7
$2,865.9
$3,037.9
$3,220.2
$3,413.5
$3,618.3
EBITDA
$403.1
$417.5
$479.5
$528.7
$594.3
$672.2
Depreciation & Amortization
(193.0 )
(168.4 )
(173.0 )
(177.6 )
(182.3 )
(193.2 )
EBIT
$210.1 %
$249.0 8.7 %
$306.5 10.1 %
$351.1 10.9 %
$412.0 12.1 %
$478.9 13.2 %
($25.3 ) 12.1 %
($27.1 ) 10.9 %
($67.4 ) 22.0 %
($119.4 ) 34.0 %
($140.1 ) 34.0 %
($162.8 ) 34.0 %
$184.7
$221.9
$239.1
$231.7
$271.9
$316.1
$193.0 – (32.2 ) (101.7 ) 2.2
$168.4 – (41.3 ) (109.3 ) 6.1
$173.0 – (16.4 ) (108.6 ) (7.2 )
$177.6 – (16.1 ) (109.8 ) (5.7 )
$182.3 – (15.1 ) (111.0 ) (6.2 )
$246.2
$245.9
$279.8
$277.7
$321.9
EBIT Margin
Taxes Tax Rate Unlevered Net Income
Depreciation & Amortization Deferred Taxes (Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital Capital Expenditures Other Cash Flows Unlevered Free Cash Flow
7.9
Note: Discounted back to May 1, 2005.
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Comparable Company Trading Analysis—Global Services ($ in millions) Enterprise Value/CY 2005E Revenue EBITDA EBIT
Enterprise Value/CY 2006E Revenue EBITDA EBIT
P/E
Stock Price 05/09/05
Equity Value
Enterprise Value
$9.08
$4,185.6
$3,518.6
0.70 x
5.6 x
10.4 x
0.65 x
5.1 x
Black Box
$34.21
$607.6
$637.4
1.14 x
8.3 x
9.6 x
0.95 x
6.7 x
Convergys
13.04
1,862.9
2,163.4
0.81
5.6
9.1
0.76
5.1
8.2
13.7
12.1
CGI Group
5.61
2,506.0
2,684.5
0.82
5.4
8.1
0.75
4.8
6.8
12.5
10.8
Company Aviator
CY 2005E
CY 2006E
8.4 x
15.7 x
12.7 x
8.0 x
14.8 x
12.5 x
Enterprise Services
Getronics
1.62
1,372.2
1,335.0
0.39
6.1
9.7
0.36
5.1
6.7
11.5
9.0
Unisys
6.88
2,320.6
2,711.2
0.46
5.6
27.3
0.44
4.3
10.0
NM
19.7
0.72 x 0.81
6.2 x 5.6
12.8 x 9.6
0.65 x 0.75
5.2 x 5.1
7.9 x 8.0
$3,098.5 2,192.2 2,221.5 1,048.3 1,255.1
$3,379.4 2,280.0 2,211.0 2,487.2 2,290.1
$2,102.8 1,994.9 1,769.5 2,140.8 6,008.5
$2,767.3 2,209.1 2,183.4 1,058.8 1,292.4
Mean Median
13.1 x 13.1
12.8 x 12.1
Global Services—Implied Enterprise Value
Black Box Convergys CGI Group Getronics Unisys
$2,884.3 2,218.4 2,081.2 2,224.2 1,845.8
$2,095.5 2,161.6 1,793.4 1,770.4 2,630.5
$2,864.5 2,655.0 2,417.9 2,215.6 NA
$2,891.1 2,798.4 2,496.6 2,086.0 4,556.0
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates.
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56
Aviator—Comparable Transaction Multiples and Implied Valuation— Global Services ($ in millions)
Acquiror
Nortel
Target
PEC Solutions
Transaction Date
4/26/2005
Equity Value
$471.1
Target Enterprise Value
$448.0
Enterprise Value/Forward EBITDA
EBIT
Forward P/E
x
11.9 x
13.2 x
22.5 x NM
Revenue
1.65
IBM
Corio
1/25/2005
182.0
174.1
2.94
NA
NM
Warburg-Providence
Telcordia
11/18/2004
1,350.0
1,350.0
1.53
7.7
8.9
NA
Cisco
NetSolve
9/9/2004
128.0
89.0
2.21
NA
NM
NM
Avaya
Expanets
11/26/2003
152.0
152.0
0.36
NA
NM
NA
CGI
AMS
3/9/2004
858.0
795.7
0.78
8.9
17.3
31.3
GTCR
Syniverse
2/14/2002
770.0
770.0
2.45
6.3
7.4
NA
Services—Implied Valuation Acquiror
Nortel
Target
PEC Solutions
$3,830.6
$2,623.1
$1,577.2
$2,365.8
IBM
Corio
6,817.8
NA
NA
Warburg-Providence
Telcordia
3,548.0
1,697.3
1,063.4
NA NA
Cisco
NetSolve
5,124.9
NA
NA
NA
Avaya
Expanets
829.4
NA
NA
NA
CGI
AMS
1,815.9
1,950.9
2,067.0
3,291.0
GTCR
Syniverse
5,681.5
1,388.7
884.2
NA
Note: The P/E multiple is applied to Unlevered Net Income. Note: Based on Global Services segment Forward Revenue of $2319.0 million, Forward EBITDA of $220.4 million, Forward EBIT of $119.5 million, and Forward Net Income of $105.1 million.
CONFIDENTIAL
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56
Cost of Capital Analysis—Services Assumptions
Unlevered Beta Calculation
Risk-free Rate(1)
4.39 %
Market Risk Premium(2)
7.20
Aviator Marginal Tax Rate
12.0
Barra Beta
Debt/ Equity(3)
Unlevered Beta(4)
1.24 1.14 1.00 1.99 1.75
6.7% 18.1 14.7 15.1 45.3
1.17 0.98 0.89 1.76 1.25
Consolidated Mean
1.43
20.0
1.21
Aviator
2.44
4.5
2.35
Comparable Company Global Services
Black Box Convergys Corporation CGI Group Getronics Unisys
WACC Calculation—Based on Industry Average Unlevered Beta—Services Debt/ Equity(4)
10.0 % 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
Debt/ Capitalization
9.1 % 16.7 23.1 28.6 33.3
Levered Beta(5)
Cost of Equity(6)
6.00%
7.00%
1.32 1.42 1.53 1.64 1.74
13.9% 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.9
13.1% 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1
13.2% 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.4
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 8.00%
13.3% 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6
9.00%
10.00%
13.3% 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.9
13.4% 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.2
Note: The P/E multiple is applied to Unlevered Net Income. Note: Based on Enterprise Communications segment Forward Revenue of $2319.0 million, Forward EBITDA of $220.4 million, Forward EBIT of $119.5 million, and Forward Net Income of $105.1 million. (1) Excludes Cisco/Active Voice, Alcatel/Genesys and Cisco/Geotel.
CONFIDENTIAL
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56
Section 315
Pro Forma Merger Consequences —Nortel Acquires Aviator Note: Barra Beta as of May 9, 2005. WACC = Kd * D/(D+E) + Ke * E/(D+E). (1) Yield on 20-year Treasury Bond as of May 2, 2005. (2) Long-term horizon expected equity risk premium. Source: Ibbotson Associates. (3) Total debt divided by market value of equity. (4) Unlevered Beta = Predicted Beta/(1+ (1-tax)*D/E). (5) Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta * (1+(1-tax)*D/E)). (6) Cost of Equity = Risk-free Rate + (Levered Beta * Market Risk Premium) + Market Capitalization Premium.
Section 3-116
Transaction Considerations
Nortel Merges with Aviator—Strategic Rationale
Dominant Legacy PBX Vendor Globally
Different Channel and Portfolio Strategies Create Opportunities for Cross Selling
Similar Geographic Footprint Creates Potential for Cost Synergies
Potential to create the largest PBX vendor globally, with combined enterprise revenue of $8.1 billion and well-entrenched customer relationships
Nortel/Aviator will be the #1 vendor in the North American enterprise voice market, with a combined market share of approximately 47%
Nortel/Aviator will be the #1 vendor in the global contact center market, with market shares of 56%, 54% and 75% in North America, Europe and Asia respectively
Could potentially have the scale and the R&D capabilities to take on Cisco in the enterprise PBX portion of the overall enterprise market as it transforms from circuit to IP
Aviator’s channel mix is mostly direc t (65%), whereas Nortel’s enterprise channel strategy is almost entirely indirect
Nortel’s enterprise business generates approximately 30% of revenue from sale of data networking equipment; Aviator currently generates no revenue from sale of data networking equipment
Aviator could potentially cross-sell its service offerings into Nortel’s customer base; Nortel could potentially cross-sell its data offerings into Aviator’s customer base
Significant opportunities for cost synergies exist through reductions in cost of sales, overlapping R&D platforms and redundant G&A functions
Geographic proximity of Nortel and Aviator should allow for efficient execution of these synergies.
Pro Forma Revenue Mix Analysis Nortel
Nortel + Aviator
Enterprise 24%
Wireline Infrastructure 16%
Wireline Infrastructure 25% Enterprise 50%
Wireless Infrastructure 51%
Total 2005E Revenues = $10.6 Billion
Wireless Infrastructure 34%
Total 2005E Revenues = $15.6 Billion
Review of Portfolio Overlap—Nortel Merges with Aviator
Nortel
Lucent
Siemens
Alcatel
–
–
–
Cisco
Aviator
Juniper
–
–
–
–
–
Nortel+ Aviator
Growth Businesses
Carrier IP Routing Carrier VoIP Gateways and Softswitches
–
Enterprise Convergence
– –
3G Wireless Broadband Access
–
Security, Storage, WLAN
–
–
–
–
Home Networking/Mobile Phones
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Mature Businesses
Optical Networking ATM Switching 2.0–2.5G Wireless –
Enterprise Data Networking
–
Declining Businesses
–
Digital Cross Connect Circuit Switching –
Legacy PBX
Leadership/Strong Position
Source: Wall Street Research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates. Note: Fiscal year ending December 31.
–
–
Weak Position
–
Review of Key Considerations—Merger with Aviator Insert Portrait Tabloid 6937031 (Doc. # 6966602) Page 48
Shareholder Overlap Analysis Nortel Shareholders Primecap Management
Aviator Shareholders Position
% Ownership
118.712
2.8 %
Capital Research & Management MFS Investment Management Smith Barney Asset Management Alliance Capital Management McLean Budden TD Asset Management CDP Capital World Markets
98.550 79.074 78.334 67.884 65.775 62.288 53.573
2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3
Barclays Global Investors
52.422
1.2
BC Investment Management
51.264
1.2
Fidelity Management & Research
48.026
1.1
Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board BMO Nesbitt Burns
42.805 37.682
1.0 0.9
Artisan Partners
36.825
0.9
RBC Asset Management Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board Equinox Capital Management Ontario Municipal Employee Retirement System TAL Global Asset Management Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management I. G. Investment Management HOOPP Investment Management
36.346 33.866 31.418 29.419 24.508 23.038 21.856 18.811 16.524
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Deutsche Bank Investment Management Merrill Lynch Investment Managers
15.758 15.302
0.4 0.4
Letko, Brosseau & Associates Jennison Associates UBS Global Asset Management Goldman Sachs Asset Management Marathon Asset Management
15.174 14.037 13.760 13.554 12.867
0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TIAA-CREF Investment Management
12.146
0.3
11.685 11.517 11.495 11.425 11.193 9.921 9.736 8.994 8.972
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
T. Rowe Price Associates AIM Trimark Investments Morgan Stanley Natcan Investment Management C. I. Mutual Funds Deutsche Bank Securities Courage Capital Management Norges Bank Kapitalforvaltning Goldman Sachs
Position
Warburg Pincus
% Ownership
Dodge & Cox
24.812
10.0 % 5.2
Fidelity Management & Research
16.979
3.5
Lord, Abbett & Co.
16.215
3.4
Barclays Global Investors
15.083
3.1
Friess Associates SSgA Funds Management Vanguard Group Wellington Management AIM Management Group Calamos Advisors
12.913 11.961 11.883 11.104 10.080 7.283
2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.5
Artisan Partners
7.013
1.5
Franklin Advisers Trusco Capital Management Victory Capital Management Northern Trust Global Investments Bessemer Investment Management Pioneer Global Asset Management
6.717 5.952 5.751 4.736 4.645 4.537
1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9
TIAA-CREF Investment Management
3.838
0.8
BNP Paribas Asset Management Fifth Third Asset Management Dreyfus Investment Advisors AXA Rosenberg Investment Management Mellon Bank Asset Management JPMorgan Investment Management Northern Capital Management Perkins, Wolf, McDonnell & Co. US Bancorp Asset Management
3.617 3.207 2.944 2.720 2.695 2.339 2.153 2.132 2.100
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, Inc.
2.056
0.4
American Century Global Investment Management California Public Employees Retirement System
2.050 1.998
0.4 0.4
Deutsche Bank Investment Management
1.971
0.4
1.931 1.874 1.872 1.752 1.744 1.699 1.696 1.668
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Northwestern Investment Management PDR Services Akanthos Capital Management Citadel Investment Group Fred Alger Management Teacher Retirement System of Texas HSBC Asset Management Geode Capital Management
47.955
Section 3-217
Pro Forma Merger Consequences
Relative Contribution Analysis ($ in millions) Nortel
$ Aviator
Total
% Nortel
Aviator
Revenues
FY 2008E FY 2007E FY 2006E
$13,305.9 12,672.3 12,061.7
$6,062.8 5,719.5 5,395.8
$19,368.7 18,391.9 17,457.4
68.7% 68.9 69.1
31.3% 31.1 30.9
EBITDA
FY 2008E FY 2007E FY 2006E
$1,481.0 1,429.4 1,130.1
$874.2 788.9 686.9
$2,355.2 2,218.3 1,817.0
62.9% 64.4 62.2
37.1% 35.6 37.8
EBIT
FY 2008E FY 2007E FY 2006E
$1,075.3 1,023.9 738.8
$591.8 513.8 419.0
$1,667.1 1,537.6 1,157.8
64.5% 66.6 63.8
35.5% 33.4 36.2
FY 2008E FY 2007E FY 2006E
$933.5 867.2 571.6
$406.7 396.2 367.3
$1,340.1 1,263.4 938.9
$3,386.4 3,870.0 630.0 3,766.7
$1,040.1 20.5 0.0 1,535.3
$4,426.5 3,890.5 630.0 5,302.0
76.5% 99.5 100.0 71.0
23.5% 0.5 0.0 29.0
Equity Value(2) Enterprise Value
$11,315.9 12,361.9
$4,663.0 3,996.7
$15,978.9 16,358.6
70.8% 75.6
29.2% 24.4
Equity Value at $10.00 per Share Equity Value at $12.00 per Share Equity Value at $14.00 per Share
$11,315.9 11,315.9 11,315.9
$4,896.9 5,892.4 6,902.4
$16,212.9 17,208.4 18,218.3
69.8% 65.8 62.1
30.2% 34.2 37.9
Net Income
Cash(1) Total Debt(1) Minority Interest(1) Shareholders Equity(1)
69.7% 68.6 60.9
30.3% 31.4 39.1
Pro Forma Merger Consequences Summary—Nortel Acquires Aviator ($ in millions, except for per share data)
100% Stock Implied Exchange Ratio Premium to Market
$10.00 per Share 25% Cash/ 75% Stock
50% Stock/ 50% Cash
100% Stock
$12.00 per Share 25% Cash/ 75% Stock
50% Stock/ 50% Cash
100% Stock
$14.00 per Share 25% Cash/ 75% Stock
50% Stock/ 50% Cash
3.779 x
2.834 x
1.889 x
4.534 x
3.401 x
2.267 x
5.290 x
3.968 x
2.645 x
4.9 %
4.9 %
4.9 %
25.9 %
25.9 %
25.9 %
46.9 %
46.9 %
46.9 %
Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share ($)
FY 2006E FY 2007E FY 2008E
$0.01 (0.01 ) (0.01 )
$0.02 0.01 0.01
$0.02 0.01 0.01
($0.00 ) (0.02 ) (0.02 )
$0.01 (0.01 ) (0.01 )
$0.00 (0.00 ) (0.00 )
($0.01 ) (0.03 ) (0.04 )
($0.01 ) (0.02 ) (0.03 )
($0.01 ) (0.02 ) (0.02 )
(5.5 %) (11.6 ) (11.9 )
(10.4 %) (8.0 ) (7.7 )
Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share (%)
FY 2006E FY 2007E FY 2008E
7.7 %
13.6 %
11.9 %
(2.7 ) (3.7 )
3.4 2.4
7.0 6.5
(0.6 %) (9.6 ) (10.5 )
4.3 %
0.5 %
(3.6 ) (4.3 )
(0.4 ) (0.6 )
(8.1 %) (15.9 ) (16.6 )
NA 38.3 60.2
NA NA NA
NA NA NA
$5.4 145.9 178.8
NA 49.7 66.9
NA 5.6 8.0
$81.8 255.0 299.1
$50.2 168.5 194.6
$85.5 104.6 113.1
$4,306.0 692.3 3,870.0 8,663.6
$3,081.7 692.3 3,870.0 7,439.4
$3,001.2 692.3 5,030.0 6,215.1
$4,306.0 891.4 3,870.0 9,659.1
$3,000.0 891.4 4,038.7 8,186.0
$3,011.6 891.4 5,545.0 6,712.9
$4,306.0 1,093.4 3,870.0 10,669.1
$3,021.4 1,093.4 4,320.0 8,943.5
$3,023.3 1,093.4 6,070.0 7,217.9
Additional Pre-Tax Earnings for 0% Dilution
FY 2006E FY 2007E FY 2008E Closing Balance Sheet
Cash Incremental Identifiable Intangible Assets Total Debt Equity FFO/Debt
FY 2006E FY 2007E FY 2008E
41.5 % 50.5 52.7
41.0 % 50.0 52.2
33.6 % 41.9 43.9
41.6 % 50.6 52.8
40.1 % 49.2 51.4
31.2 % 39.4 41.3
41.6 % 50.6 52.9
35.9 % 44.1 46.1
28.4 % 36.1 37.9
29.4 % 27.6 25.4 23.4
32.4 % 30.2 27.7 25.4
42.4 % 37.0 33.9 31.0
27.3 % 25.8 23.9 22.1
31.4 % 28.9 26.6 24.5
43.0 % 36.9 34.0 31.4
25.5 % 24.2 22.5 21.0
31.1 % 29.4 27.3 25.4
43.6 % 37.3 34.7 32.2
2.9 x 2.1 1.7 1.6
2.9 x 2.1 1.7 1.6
3.8 x 2.5 2.0 1.9
2.9 x 2.1 1.7 1.6
3.1 x 2.2 1.8 1.7
4.2 x 2.6 2.1 2.0
2.9 x 2.1 1.7 1.6
3.3 x 2.4 1.9 1.8
4.6 x 2.8 2.3 2.2
30.2 %
24.5 %
17.8 %
34.2 %
28.1 %
20.7 %
37.9 %
31.4 %
23.4 %
Total Debt/Capitalization
Closing FY 2006E FY 2007E FY 2008E Total Debt/EBITDA
Closing FY 2006E FY 2007E FY 2008E Pro Forma Ownership—Aviator
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates. Note: Fiscal year ending December 31. (1) As of December 31, 2005. (2) As of May 27, 2005.
Nortel Acquires Aviator—Synergy Sensitivity Analysis Assuming 50% Stock/50% Cash
($ in millions, except per share data) Pretax Synergies $250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$0.06 0.06 0.06
$0.07 0.07 0.06
$0.08 0.07 0.07
$0.09 0.08 0.08
$0.09 0.09 0.09
$0.10 0.10 0.10
44.5 % 28.0 10.0
51.1 % 32.2 13.5
57.6 % 36.4 17.0
64.1 % 40.6 20.6
70.7 % 44.8 24.1
77.2 % 49.0 27.7
$0.04 0.04 0.04
$0.05 0.05 0.05
$0.06 0.06 0.05
$0.07 0.06 0.06
$0.08 0.07 0.07
$0.09 0.08 0.08
32.1 % 19.8 17.7
38.4 % 23.9 21.4
44.7 % 27.9 25.1
51.0 % 32.0 28.7
57.3 % 36.0 32.4
63.6 % 40.1 36.1
$0.03 0.02 0.02
$0.03 0.03 0.03
$0.04 0.04 0.04
$0.05 0.05 0.04
$0.06 0.06 0.05
$0.07 0.06 0.06
$10/share Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share ($) FY 2006E FY 2007E FY 2008E Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share (%) FY 2006E
FY 2007E FY 2008E $12/share Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share ($) FY 2006E FY 2007E FY 2008E Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share (%) FY 2006E
FY 2007E FY 2008E $14/share Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share ($) FY 2006E FY 2007E FY 2008E
Note: Financial projections based on Wall Street equity research and Bear Stearns Investment Banking estimates. Assumes December 31, 2005 closingPer date. Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Share (%) Assumes Nortel stock price of $2.65 and Aviator stock price of $9.53 (as of Ma y 27, 2005). 26.1 FY 2006E 20.0 32.2 38.3 44.4 50.5 Assumes 20% of Excess of Purchase Price over Book Value is allocated to Incremental Identifiable Intangible Assets and is amortized (straight-line) over 10 years for book purposes. % % % % % % Assumes purchase funded with balance sheet cash subject to a $3.0 billion minimum cash balance; excess, if any, funded with a combination of bank debt at L+350 and senior notes at 8.19% for 50/50 FY 11.5 15.4 19.4 23.3 27.2 31.1 and 2007E 25/75 scenarios.
FY 2008E
10.0
13.5
17.0
20.6
24.1
27.7
Nortel Acquires Aviator—Synergy Sensitivity Analysis Assuming 100% Stock
($ in millions, except per share data) Pretax Synergies $250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$0.05 0.03 0.03
$0.05 0.04 0.03
$0.06 0.05 0.04
$0.07 0.05 0.05
$0.08 0.06 0.06
$0.08 0.07 0.06
35.5 % 15.1 (2.2 )
41.0 % 18.7 0.6
46.6 % 22.3 3.5
52.1 % 25.8 6.4
57.7 % 29.4 9.2
63.2 % 33.0 12.1
$0.03 0.01 0.01
$0.04 0.02 0.02
$0.05 0.03 0.02
$0.06 0.03 0.03
$0.06 0.04 0.04
$0.07 0.05 0.04
25.6 % 7.2 4.7
30.8 % 10.5 7.7
36.0 % 13.9 10.8
41.3 % 17.2 13.8
46.5 % 20.6 16.8
51.7 % 24.0 19.9
$0.02 (0.00 ) (0.00 )
$0.03 0.01
$0.04 0.01
$0.04 0.02
$0.05 0.03
$0.06 0.03
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
$10/share Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share ($) FY 2006E FY 2007E FY 2008E Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share (%) FY 2006E
FY 2007E FY 2008E
$12/share Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share ($) FY 2006E FY 2007E FY 2008E Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share (%) FY 2006E
FY 2007E FY 2008E $14/share Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share ($) FY 2006E FY 2007E
FY 2008E Earnings (Dilution)/Accretion Per Share (%)