Strategic Foresight: Most business analysts have little experience or formal training in strategic foresight, but futurists can offer clear and useful guidance in “best practices.” Drawing on the wisdom of leading futurists in both the consulting and academic arenas, the following framework will help you successfully apply strategic foresight in your organization. These are the key ideas that one needs to think about in doing strategic foresight in today’s challenging environment of constant change and multiple bottom lines. The framework that emerges from the experiences of professional futurists focuses on what would be most critical to an organization’s success in futuring: • Framing: attitude, audience, work environment, rationale and purpose, objectives, and teams. • Scanning: the system, history and context of the issue, and how to scan for information regarding the future of the issue. • Forecasting: drivers and uncertainties, tools, diverging and converging approaches, and alternatives. • Visioning: implications of the forecast, and envisioning designed outcomes. • Planning: strategy and options for carrying out the vision. • Acting: communicating the results, developing action agendas, and institutionalizing strategic thinking and intelligence systems. These six phases of the strategicforesight process are not necessarily arranged in step-by-step chronological order, but rather in roughly the order most commonly encountered when we engage in a strategic-foresight exercise. Some teams might go immediately into Visioning after the Framing phase, for instance, but Visioning more typically follows the Forecasting phase.
Framing the key issues affecting your organization, scanning the environment to see how trends may play out, and envisioning possible— and a nd desirable o utcomes are all part of the strategic-foresight — outcomes process. Incorporating this framework into your organizational culture can help you move forward with clarity, creativity, and confidence.
By Andy Hines ©2006 World Future Society 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Avenue, Suite 450 Bethesda, MD 20814 U.S.A. All rights reserved.
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The State of the Art Framing: Organizing the Issues at Hand
Framing helps analysts to scope problems that require strategic foresight. Investing the time to clearly frame your objective and how to address it will pay big dividends in later phases of the strategic-foresight process. Far too many strategic-foresight activities—and business analyses in general—end up addressing and “solving” the wrong problem. The organization then faces the prospect of starting over, with less confidence in the process, or simply abandons it altogether. The long-term future is naturally bottom-line-oriented organizations fuzzy and uncertain, and it is hard to will reject it. The team undertaking a address an issue as vague as “What strategic-foresight exercise should will ‘X’ technology look like in 10 understand precisely what their years?” How deeply do you need to analysis can and cannot deliver. go into describing it (how long Resistance may also emerge from should your report be)? How many participants who see the framing alternative scenarios or images step as redundant; in other cases, a should you generate? Unfortunately, sensitive core issue might be touched organizations and foresight teams on that those involved in the process may be tempted to “get on with it” would prefer to avoid rather than and take action right away, thus confront. And participants may simskipping over the essential framing ply disagree with each other on the process. objectives of the exercise; they’re That urge should be resisted. only human. This is when the team Strategic foresight is different from leader needs to slow down, be more the typical business challenge. There careful, and resolve the disagreeare no cut-and-dried, right-and- ments, or else they will come back to wrong answers in strategic foresight, undermine the process and the final and it is not always clear if the or- result later on. ganization is on the right path as the activity proceeds. Dealing with the Scanning: The Organizational ambiguity inherent in strategic foreContext sight requires an attitude different from simply providing the right data Once the strategic-foresight team or information. is clear about its purpose and the isAnother way to keep the framing sue areas that need to be examined, process working effectively for the the boundaries and scope of an acorganization undertaking strategic tivity, it begins to scan the internal foresight is to set specific objectives, and external environment for infortranslating the rationale and purpose mation and trends relating to the isinto tangible outcomes. The process sue at hand. of strategic foresight may be fuzzy, Internally, the team wants to learn but its outcomes should not be, or the organization’s experience with
the issue. Externally, the team immerses itself in what’s going on outside regarding the issue. The goal is to come up with a mix of basic or fundamental driving forces that suggest the most likely future. The environmental-scanning process will also reveal potential change-drivers that may lead to alternative future outcomes. In scanning parlance, this involves identifying the macrotrends that will form a baseline, or mostlikely, forecast, as well as “weak signals” of anything that might change that probable future. Techniques for environmental scanning have improved in recent years. Futurists working as consultants in organizations can help the strategic-foresight team members to look beyond their own experiences and fields of expertise, expanding the breadth and depth of their scanning to include a wider range of sources and to probe deeper into their potential implications. Automobile companies, for example, will tend to monitor vehicle and transportation trends. They will either ignore or pay less attention to developments outside these areas. It is the job of the analyst to engage the organization in seeing the value of looking at a wider range of areas. A
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food trend toward portable foods, for example, may suggest possibilities for “dashboard dining.” Strategic foresight thus differs from competitive intelligence in that it is less about finding a piece of information that no one else can find —since information is so freely available—and more about understanding and acting upon that information more quickly and creatively than competitors. One tool for broadening and deepening the scanning process is the “system map.” Mapping the system is like creating an organizational chart, but one that also places the organization in the context of its external environment. It outlines the forces, factors, and stakeholders and their relationships in light of the issue being studied. Insight will often come from thinking about things the organization does not typically consider and discovering relationships or impacts that would otherwise have escaped notice. The system map is often a key reference piece, and in many cases, analysts will blow it up to wall-size and place it in either a dedicated “war room” or a place where those involved can routinely see it. An effective visual can be very helpful in stimulating interest and thinking. Forecasting: “What Will Be” May Not Be
Forecasting involves creating alternative futures. Most organizations, if cessfully navigate through whatever prompts the organization to chalnot challenged, will tend to believe future does emerge. lenge existing assumptions about the the future is going to be pretty much Futurists are frequently asked to future, to consider “what if” possilike the past. This belief is often produce a “correct” future—that is, bilities, and to plan and act differ based on an array of unexamined as- to predict exactly what will happen. ently. An alternative forecast that sumptions and biases toward an im- Though a single, clear prediction of eventually turns out to be “wrong” age of the future that reflects the sta- the future would obviously be easier can still be useful if it prompted the tus quo or only incremental changes. to deal with, the organization will be organization to take the future seriThe strategic-foresight team should better served if it understands and ously and prepare for previously unseriously address the possibility that prepares for a range of possibilities. considered possibilities. things may not continue as they Forecasting alternative futures does The forecasting process includes have. not mean developing detailed plans identifying the key change-drivers The future is inherently unknow- for every contingency, however. and uncertainties affecting the issues able, and efforts to get it exactly Rather, it means monitoring the ex- that the strategic-forecasting team is right are futile. Instead, the strategic- ternal environment for signs (guide- targeting. What is really driving foresight process uses the forecasting posts, or leading indicators) pointing change into the future? How certain phase to envision alternative futures toward the realization of one or are we about the probabilities of for the organization to consider. The more alternatives. those specific changes? Some drivers result will not only reduce the likeliThe forecasting phase leads to a are fairly well understood. The aging hood and magnitude of surprise, but useful set of alternative futures. The baby boomers, for example, are goalso enable the organization to suc- exercise itself is useful because it ing to continue to age, and they 20
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must be reckoned with. They should The starting point on the map is not mean inaction. It means having a be considered in constructing any al- the connection between the alterna- robust, flexible approach to the ternative future where demographics tive futures and the organization future that the organization hopes to are important. Other forces, how- itself. What does it mean to the or- achieve. ever, are far less certain. Will nano- ganization if the alternatives were to technology provide breakthroughs in occur? The Acting Phase materials science? It’s difficult to Though the visioning phase needs know, and a materials organization to stay practical, it is important to Organizations reluctant to devote would do well to consider how this also “think big.” Now the organiza- precious resources today to a someforce plays out strongly, even though tion should express its hopes, times uncertain future payoff must it is not certain to do so. dreams, and aspirations about the be able to see their goals clearly. The One goal in the forecasting phase future. What is the preferred future? acting phase thus is largely about is to use creative problem solving Because this question now arises in communication, making the abstract and futures thinking to generate as an atmosphere well grounded in the progressively more concrete: What is many different ideas as possible, reality constructed throughout the to be done, who will do it, how, and even if they seem to come from left foresight process, it is not mere wish- when? field. The goal here is quantity rather ful thinking. It is preferable to err on The acting phase of strategic forethan quality. From there, the team the side of being overly ambitious at sight taps into the routines and narrows down the huge list of ideas this point, as the next phase, plan- processes of the organization. One of to be included in the alternative fu- ning, concerns itself with how to the traps of foresight is to do it only tures, based on agreed-upon criteria, bring that vision into being, and can once, failing to leverage the learning such as importance and likelihood. scale back or fine-tune the vision. and capabilities developed during How many alternatives should that first strategic-foresight exercise there be? There is no ideal number. to make the next futuring activity Planning: Building the Bridge One is too few, and more than six is more fluid and productive. An onprobably too many. Different organiPlanning is the bridge between the going capability can become an imzations will have different capabili- vision and action, the “strategy” por- portant asset for the organization. ties and preferences. More important tion of the strategic-foresight team’s Strategic foresight can become a funthan the number is that each alterna- work. The specific sets of tactics and damental part of a learning organitive future described should be dis- strategies that are outlined will be tai- zation, which is essential to success tinct in order to challenge as many lored to the individual organization. in today’s fast-changing environassumptions as possible. The goal of the planning phase is to ment. help the organization translate the All results—positive or negative— vision and alternative future possibil- of any initiative need to be fed back Visioning: From Possibilities ities into strategy, and just as there are into the process in order to improve To the Preferred Future alternative futures, there are alterna- it the next time. By “next time,” The goal of strategic foresight is to tive ways of achieving them. however, we really mean “ongoing.” make better, more-informed deciCompare what ca n happen—the Foresight should be part of the fabric sions in the present. Forecasting lays alternative futures—with what the of the organization, and strategic out a range of potential futures to organization would like to see hap- thinking should be internalized into consider so that the organization can pen—the vision. How wide is the the entire institution. It is mission act effectively now. The visioning gap between these futures? Although critical for any organization’s future. phase focuses attention back on the the gap may seem insurmountable in present, because now we must ask, some cases, the planning phase emAbout the Author “So what?” Given the future possi- powers the organization to develop Andy Hines is director of bilities outlined, what does the or- better-informed decisions, which consulting at Social Techganization want (or need) to do? include the decision not to act when nologies, teaches futures Failure to ask this question dimin- the timing is wrong or make changes studies at the University of ishes the activity to just an interest- when they are not appropriate. Houston, and has worked as ing intellectual exercise, and few orBy developing strategic options a full-time futurist for two ganizations have time or patience for and multiple contingency plans, the major U.S. corporations. much of that. Like any organiza- organization will be equipped to E-mail
[email protected]. This article draws from Guidelines for tional activity, strategic foresight manage the uncertainty of the Excellence in Strategic Foresight by Andy must demonstrate a link to the mis- future. The challenge here is to avoid Hines and Peter Bishop (forthcoming). Ansion, purpose, effectiveness, per- the temptation to focus exclusively other, more detailed version of this essay formance, and bottom line. Since the on the “best” option and ignore the appears in Creating Global Strategies for payoff for strategic foresight comes rest. After spending time dealing in Humanity’s Future, the World Future Society’s down the road, it’s important to possibilities and uncertainties, deci- 2006 conference volume, which may be have clear maps showing the path- sion makers may feel a natural de- ordered online at www.wfs.org/vol2006.htm. way to that payoff: We can get there sire to “get down to business,” but from here. considering a range of options does Commentaries begin on page 22. THE FUTURIST
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