Table 1: Present Worth Anal
a
b
c
Capital R&D Investment Expe Expend ndit itur ure e
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
($1,100.00) ($2,200.00) ($2,200.00) ($2,200.00) ($1,320.00) ($880.00) ($660.00) ($440.00)
$0.00 ($250.00) ($350.00) ($350.00) ($50.00) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
d
e=b+c+d
Total Development Worki Working ng Capi Capita tall Expenditure $0.00 ($150.00) ($300.00) ($300.00) ($200.00) ($50.00) $0.00 $0.00
($1,100.00) ($2,600.00) ($2,850.00) ($2,850.00) ($1,570.00) ($930.00) ($660.00) ($440.00)
f
Number of Planes Delivered $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $12.00 $24.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00
2038 2039 2040
$48.00 $48.00 $48.00
sis of A3XX (all numbers in $ millions unless otherwise stated) g (includes inflation)
Price per Plane
$216.26 $220.59 $225.00 $229.50 $234.09 $238.77 $243.55 $248.42 $253.39 $258.45 $263.62 $268.90 $274.27 $279.76 $285.35 $291.06 $296.88 $302.82 $308.88 $315.05 $321.36 $327.78 $334.34 $341.02 $347.85 $354.80 $361.90 $369.14 $376.52 $384.05 $391.73 $399.57
h=f*g
Revenue $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2,595.16 $5,294.12 $10,800.00 $11,016.00 $11,236.32 $11,461.05 $11,690.27 $11,924.07 $12,162.55 $12,405.81 $12,653.92 $12,907.00 $13,165.14 $13,428.44 $13,697.01 $13,970.95 $14,250.37 $14,535.38 $14,826.09 $15,122.61 $15,425.06 $15,733.56 $16,048.23 $16,369.20 $16,696.58 $17,030.51 $17,371.12 $17,718.54 $18,072.92 $18,434.37 $18,803.06 $19,179.12
i=.175*h Operating Income (17.5% of Revenue) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $454.15 $926.47 $1,890.00 $1,927.80 $1,966.36 $2,005.68 $2,045.80 $2,086.71 $2,128.45 $2,171.02 $2,214.44 $2,258.72 $2,303.90 $2,349.98 $2,396.98 $2,444.92 $2,493.81 $2,543.69 $2,594.56 $2,646.46 $2,699.39 $2,753.37 $2,808.44 $2,864.61 $2,921.90 $2,980.34 $3,039.95 $3,100.75 $3,162.76 $3,226.02 $3,290.54 $3,356.35
j = e+i
BTCF $0.00 ($1,100.00) ($2,600.00) ($2,850.00) ($2,850.00) ($1,570.00) ($475.85) $266.47 $1,450.00 $1,927.80 $1,966.36 $2,005.68 $2,045.80 $2,086.71 $2,128.45 $2,171.02 $2,214.44 $2,258.72 $2,303.90 $2,349.98 $2,396.98 $2,444.92 $2,493.81 $2,543.69 $2,594.56 $2,646.46 $2,699.39 $2,753.37 $2,808.44 $2,864.61 $2,921.90 $2,980.34 $3,039.95 $3,100.75 $3,162.76 $3,226.02 $3,290.54 $3,356.35
k
l = b+i-k
Depreciation of Capital Expenditure Taxable Income $0.00 ($1,100.00) $25.00 ($2,225.00) $60.00 ($2,260.00) $95.00 ($2,295.00) $100.00 ($1,420.00) ($425.85) $266.47 $1,450.00 $1,927.80 $1,966.36 $2,005.68 $2,045.80 $2,086.71 $2,128.45 $2,171.02 $2,214.44 $2,258.72 $2,303.90 $2,349.98 $2,396.98 $2,444.92 $2,493.81 $2,543.69 $2,594.56 $2,646.46 $2,699.39 $2,753.37 $2,808.44 $2,864.61 $2,921.90 $2,980.34 $3,039.95 $3,100.75 $3,162.76 $3,226.02 $3,290.54 $3,356.35
$407.56 $415.71 $424.02
$19,562.71 $19,953.96 $20,353.04
$3,423.47 $3,491.94 $3,561.78
$3,423.47 $3,491.94 $3,561.78
$3,423.47 $3,491.94 $3,561.78
m = .38*l
n=j-m
Taxes Paid $0.00 ($418.00) ($845.50) ($858.80) ($872.10) ($539.60) ($161.82) $101.26 $551.00 $732.56 $747.22 $762.16 $777.40 $792.95 $808.81 $824.99 $841.49 $858.32 $875.48 $892.99 $910.85 $929.07 $947.65 $966.60 $985.93 $1,005.65 $1,025.77 $1,046.28 $1,067.21 $1,088.55 $1,110.32 $1,132.53 $1,155.18 $1,178.28 $1,201.85 $1,225.89 $1,250.40 $1,275.41
After-tax Cash Flow $0.00 ($682.00) ($1,754.50) ($1,991.20) ($1,977.90) ($1,030.40) ($314.03) $165.21 $899.00 $1,195.24 $1,219.14 $1,243.52 $1,268.39 $1,293.76 $1,319.64 $1,346.03 $1,372.95 $1,400.41 $1,428.42 $1,456.99 $1,486.13 $1,515.85 $1,546.17 $1,577.09 $1,608.63 $1,640.80 $1,673.62 $1,707.09 $1,741.23 $1,776.06 $1,811.58 $1,847.81 $1,884.77 $1,922.46 $1,960.91 $2,000.13 $2,040.13 $2,080.93
$1,300.92 $1,326.94 $1,353.48
PW IRR
$2,122.55 $2,165.00 $2,208.30
$240.73 11.38%
Table 2 - Brea
a
b
c
d
Total Development Working Capital Expenditure
Capital R&D Investment Expenditure
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
-1100 -2200 -2200 -2200 -1320 -880 -660 -440
e = b+c+d
0 -250 -350 -350 -50 0 0 0
0 -150 -300 -300 -200 -50 0 0
-1100 -2600 -2850 -2850 -1570 -930 -660 -440
f = GOALSEEK function
Number of Planes Delivered 0 0 0 0 0 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37
2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37
Even Analysis (all numbers in $ millions, unless otherwise stated)
g (includes inflation)
Price per Plane
216.26 220.59 225.00 229.50 234.09 238.77 243.55 248.42 253.39 258.45 263.62 268.90 274.27 279.76 285.35 291.06 296.88 302.82 308.88 315.05 321.36 327.78 334.34 341.02 347.85 354.80 361.90 369.14 376.52 384.05
h = f*g
Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 8946.64 9125.57 9308.08 9494.25 9684.13 9877.81 10075.37 10276.88 10482.41 10692.06 10905.90 11124.02 11346.50 11573.43 11804.90 12041.00 12281.82 12527.45 12778.00 13033.56 13294.24 13560.12 13831.32 14107.95 14390.11 14677.91 14971.47 15270.90 15576.32 15887.84
i = .175*h
Operating Income (17.5% of Revenue) 0 0 0 0 0 1565.66 1596.98 1628.91 1661.49 1694.72 1728.62 1763.19 1798.45 1834.42 1871.11 1908.53 1946.70 1985.64 2025.35 2065.86 2107.17 2149.32 2192.30 2236.15 2280.87 2326.49 2373.02 2420.48 2468.89 2518.27 2568.63 2620.01 2672.41 2725.86 2780.37
j = e+i
BTCF 0 -1100.00 -2600.00 -2850.00 -2850.00 -1570.00 635.66 936.98 1188.91 1661.49 1694.72 1728.62 1763.19 1798.45 1834.42 1871.11 1908.53 1946.70 1985.64 2025.35 2065.86 2107.17 2149.32 2192.30 2236.15 2280.87 2326.49 2373.02 2420.48 2468.89 2518.27 2568.63 2620.01 2672.41 2725.86 2780.37
k
l = b+i-k
Depreciation of Capital Expenditure Taxable Income 0 -1100.00 25 -2225.00 60 -2260.00 95 -2295.00 100 -1420.00 685.66 936.98 1188.91 1661.49 1694.72 1728.62 1763.19 1798.45 1834.42 1871.11 1908.53 1946.70 1985.64 2025.35 2065.86 2107.17 2149.32 2192.30 2236.15 2280.87 2326.49 2373.02 2420.48 2468.89 2518.27 2568.63 2620.01 2672.41 2725.86 2780.37
391.73 399.57 407.56 415.71 424.02
16205.60 16529.71 16860.31 17197.51 17541.46
2835.98 2892.70 2950.55 3009.56 3069.76
2835.98 2892.70 2950.55 3009.56 3069.76
2835.98 2892.70 2950.55 3009.56 3069.76
m = .38*l
Taxes Paid 0.00 -418.00 -845.50 -858.80 -872.10 -539.60 260.55 356.05 451.79 631.37 643.99 656.87 670.01 683.41 697.08 711.02 725.24 739.75 754.54 769.63 785.03 800.73 816.74 833.08 849.74 866.73 884.07 901.75 919.78 938.18 956.94 976.08 995.60 1015.51 1035.82 1056.54
n=j-m
o = NPV($N$7:N of current year)
After-tax Cash Cumulative Flow Present Worth 0.00 -682.00 ($614.19) -1754.50 ($2,037.16) -1991.20 ($3,491.53) -1977.90 ($4,792.56) -1030.40 ($5,402.95) 375.11 ($5,202.84) 580.92 ($4,923.73) 737.13 ($4,604.80) 1030.13 ($4,203.40) 1050.73 ($3,834.68) 1071.74 ($3,495.98) 1093.18 ($3,184.85) 1115.04 ($2,899.05) 1137.34 ($2,636.52) 1160.09 ($2,395.37) 1183.29 ($2,173.84) 1206.96 ($1,970.36) 1231.10 ($1,783.43) 1255.72 ($1,611.73) 1280.83 ($1,454.00) 1306.45 ($1,309.12) 1332.58 ($1,176.03) 1359.23 ($1,053.77) 1386.41 ($941.47) 1414.14 ($838.31) 1442.42 ($743.55) 1471.27 ($656.51) 1500.70 ($576.55) 1530.71 ($503.10) 1561.33 ($435.63) 1592.55 ($373.65) 1624.40 ($316.72) 1656.89 ($264.42) 1690.03 ($216.38) 1723.83 ($172.26)
1077.67 1099.23 1121.21 1143.63 1166.51
PW
1758.31 1793.47 1829.34 1865.93 1903.25
($0.00)
($131.72) ($94.48) ($60.28) ($28.86) ($0.00)
a
b
c
d
Total Development Working Capital Expenditure
Capital R&D Investment Expenditure
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
-1100 -2200 -2200 -2200 -1320 -880 -660 -440
e=b+c+d
0 -250 -350 -350 -50 0 0 0
0 -150 -300 -300 -200 -50 0 0
-1100 -2600 -2850 -2850 -1570 -930 -660 -440
f = (3.6/13)*e
Launch Aid Deduction -304.62 -720.00 -789.23 -789.23 -434.77 -257.54 -182.77 -121.85
2037 2038 2039 2040
PW of Launch Aid ^ calculated as NPV(launch aid deduction)
($2,691.73)
Launch Repayment per Plane ^ calculated as PW of Launch Aid / SUM (column i)
Table 3 - Launch Aid Removal/Repayment (all numbers in $ millions unless otherwise stated) j = launch aid h=1/(1.0852^(arepayment per k (includes g 2000)) i=g*h plane * g inflation) l = k*g
Number of Planes Delivered
Present Worth Factor 0 0 0 0 0 12 24 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
0.612267616 0.564197951 0.519902277 0.479084295 0.441470968 0.406810697 0.374871634 0.345440134 0.318319328 0.293327799 0.270298377 0.249077016 0.229521762 0.211501808 0.194896616 0.179595112 0.165494943
# of Planes * Present Worth Factor
7.347211393 13.54075082 24.95530928 22.99604615 21.19060648 19.52691345 17.99383842 16.58112645 15.27932772 14.07973436 12.97432211 11.95569675 11.01704455 10.15208676 9.355037562 8.62056539 7.943757271
Launch Aid Repayment
($131.57) ($263.13) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26) ($526.26)
Price per Plane
216.26 220.59 225.00 229.50 234.09 238.77 243.55 248.42 253.39 258.45 263.62 268.90 274.27 279.76 285.35 291.06 296.88 302.82 308.88 315.05 321.36 327.78 334.34 341.02 347.85 354.80 361.90 369.14 376.52 384.05 391.73
Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 2595.16 5294.12 10800.00 11016.00 11236.32 11461.05 11690.27 11924.07 12162.55 12405.81 12653.92 12907.00 13165.14 13428.44 13697.01 13970.95 14250.37 14535.38 14826.09 15122.61 15425.06 15733.56 16048.23 16369.20 16696.58 17030.51 17371.12 17718.54 18072.92 18434.37 18803.06
48 48 48 48
399.57 407.56 415.71 424.02
245.5093749 Sum of Col i ^ calculated as SUM(column i) ($10.96)
19179.12 19562.71 19953.96 20353.04
m = .175*l
Operating Income (17.5% of Revenue) 0 0 0 0 0 454.15 926.47 1890.00 1927.80 1966.36 2005.68 2045.80 2086.71 2128.45 2171.02 2214.44 2258.72 2303.90 2349.98 2396.98 2444.92 2493.81 2543.69 2594.56 2646.46 2699.39 2753.37 2808.44 2864.61 2921.90 2980.34 3039.95 3100.75 3162.76 3226.02 3290.54
n = e-f+j+m
BTCF 0.00 -795.38 -1880.00 -2060.77 -2060.77 -1135.23 -349.88 186.11 1045.58 1401.54 1440.09 1479.42 1519.53 1560.45 1602.18 1644.75 1688.17 1732.46 1777.63 1823.71 1870.71 1918.65 1967.55 2543.69 2594.56 2646.46 2699.39 2753.37 2808.44 2864.61 2921.90 2980.34 3039.95 3100.75 3162.76 3226.02 3290.54
o
p = b+m-o-f+j
q = .38*p
r=n-q
Depreciation of Capital After-tax Cash Expenditure Taxable Income Taxes Paid Flow 0 0.00 0.00 -795.38 -302.25 -493.14 25 -1505.00 -571.90 -1308.10 60 -1470.77 -558.89 -1501.88 95 -1505.77 -572.19 -1488.58 100 -985.23 -374.39 -760.84 -299.88 -113.95 -235.92 186.11 70.72 115.39 1045.58 397.32 648.26 1401.54 532.58 868.95 1440.09 547.23 892.86 1479.42 562.18 917.24 1519.53 577.42 942.11 1560.45 592.97 967.48 1602.18 608.83 993.35 1644.75 625.01 1019.75 1688.17 641.51 1046.67 1732.46 658.33 1074.13 1777.63 675.50 1102.13 1823.71 693.01 1130.70 1870.71 710.87 1159.84 1918.65 729.09 1189.56 1967.55 747.67 1219.88 2543.69 966.60 1577.09 2594.56 985.93 1608.63 2646.46 1005.65 1640.80 2699.39 1025.77 1673.62 2753.37 1046.28 1707.09 2808.44 1067.21 1741.23 2864.61 1088.55 1776.06 2921.90 1110.32 1811.58 2980.34 1132.53 1847.81 3039.95 1155.18 1884.77 3100.75 1178.28 1922.46 3162.76 1201.85 1960.91 3226.02 1225.89 2000.13 3290.54 1250.40 2040.13
3356.35 3423.47 3491.94 3561.78
3356.35 3423.47 3491.94 3561.78
3356.35 3423.47 3491.94 3561.78
1275.41 1300.92 1326.94 1353.48
PW IRR
$296.73
2080.93 2122.55 2165.00 2208.30
$537.46 11.96%
Annual Number of A3XX's Produced 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Present Worth (in $ millions) ($6,035.33) ($5,305.88) ($4,576.44) ($3,846.99) ($3,117.55) ($2,388.10) ($1,658.65) ($929.21) ($199.76) $529.69 $1,259.13 $1,988.58 $2,718.02 $3,447.47 $4,176.92 $4,906.36 $5,635.81 $6,365.26 $7,094.70 $7,824.15 $8,553.60
$10,000.00
Break-Even Analysis y=1
$8,000.00
$6,000.00
$4,000.00 ) s n o i l l i m $2,000.00 $ ( h t r o W $0.00 t n e s e r P
($2,000.00)
0
20
40
60
80
Break-even Point: 6035.3/145.89 = 41.37 planes/year
($4,000.00)
($6,000.00)
($8,000.00)
Uniform Annual Number of A3XX Aircrafts Sold
5.89x - 6035.3 R² = 1
100
120
all numbers are in millions (unless otherwise stated)
a
b
c
d
Total Development Working Capital Expenditure
Capital R&D Investment Expenditure
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
-1100 -2200 -2200 -2200 -1320 -880 -660 -440
e = b+c+d
0 -250 -350 -350 -50 0 0 0
0 -150 -300 -300 -200 -50 0 0
-1100 -2600 -2850 -2850 -1570 -930 -660 -440
f = GOALSEEK function
Number of Planes Delivered 0 0 0 0 0 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37
2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37 41.37
g (includes inflation)
Price per Plane
216.26 220.59 225.00 229.50 234.09 238.77 243.55 248.42 253.39 258.45 263.62 268.90 274.27 279.76 285.35 291.06 296.88 302.82 308.88 315.05 321.36 327.78 334.34 341.02 347.85 354.80 361.90 369.14 376.52 384.05
h = f*g
Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 8946.64 9125.57 9308.08 9494.25 9684.13 9877.81 10075.37 10276.88 10482.41 10692.06 10905.90 11124.02 11346.50 11573.43 11804.90 12041.00 12281.82 12527.45 12778.00 13033.56 13294.24 13560.12 13831.32 14107.95 14390.11 14677.91 14971.47 15270.90 15576.32 15887.84
i = .175*h
Operating Income (17.5% of Revenue) 0 0 0 0 0 1565.66 1596.98 1628.91 1661.49 1694.72 1728.62 1763.19 1798.45 1834.42 1871.11 1908.53 1946.70 1985.64 2025.35 2065.86 2107.17 2149.32 2192.30 2236.15 2280.87 2326.49 2373.02 2420.48 2468.89 2518.27 2568.63 2620.01 2672.41 2725.86 2780.37
j = e+i
BTCF 0 -1100.00 -2600.00 -2850.00 -2850.00 -1570.00 635.66 936.98 1188.91 1661.49 1694.72 1728.62 1763.19 1798.45 1834.42 1871.11 1908.53 1946.70 1985.64 2025.35 2065.86 2107.17 2149.32 2192.30 2236.15 2280.87 2326.49 2373.02 2420.48 2468.89 2518.27 2568.63 2620.01 2672.41 2725.86 2780.37
k
l = b+i-k
Depreciation of Capital Expenditure Taxable Income 0 -1100.00 25 -2225.00 60 -2260.00 95 -2295.00 100 -1420.00 685.66 936.98 1188.91 1661.49 1694.72 1728.62 1763.19 1798.45 1834.42 1871.11 1908.53 1946.70 1985.64 2025.35 2065.86 2107.17 2149.32 2192.30 2236.15 2280.87 2326.49 2373.02 2420.48 2468.89 2518.27 2568.63 2620.01 2672.41 2725.86 2780.37
391.73 399.57 407.56 415.71 424.02
16205.60 16529.71 16860.31 17197.51 17541.46
2835.98 2892.70 2950.55 3009.56 3069.76
2835.98 2892.70 2950.55 3009.56 3069.76
2835.98 2892.70 2950.55 3009.56 3069.76
m = .38*l
Taxes Paid 0.00 -418.00 -845.50 -858.80 -872.10 -539.60 260.55 356.05 451.79 631.37 643.99 656.87 670.01 683.41 697.08 711.02 725.24 739.75 754.54 769.63 785.03 800.73 816.74 833.08 849.74 866.73 884.07 901.75 919.78 938.18 956.94 976.08 995.60 1015.51 1035.82 1056.54
n=j-m
o = NPV($N$7:N of current year)
After-tax Cash Cumulative Flow Present Worth 0.00 -682.00 ($614.19) -1754.50 ($2,037.16) -1991.20 ($3,491.53) -1977.90 ($4,792.56) -1030.40 ($5,402.95) 375.11 ($5,202.84) 580.92 ($4,923.73) 737.13 ($4,604.80) 1030.13 ($4,203.40) 1050.73 ($3,834.68) 1071.74 ($3,495.98) 1093.18 ($3,184.85) 1115.04 ($2,899.05) 1137.34 ($2,636.52) 1160.09 ($2,395.37) 1183.29 ($2,173.84) 1206.96 ($1,970.36) 1231.10 ($1,783.43) 1255.72 ($1,611.73) 1280.83 ($1,454.00) 1306.45 ($1,309.12) 1332.58 ($1,176.03) 1359.23 ($1,053.77) 1386.41 ($941.47) 1414.14 ($838.31) 1442.42 ($743.55) 1471.27 ($656.51) 1500.70 ($576.55) 1530.71 ($503.10) 1561.33 ($435.63) 1592.55 ($373.65) 1624.40 ($316.72) 1656.89 ($264.42) 1690.03 ($216.38) 1723.83 ($172.26)
1077.67 1099.23 1121.21 1143.63 1166.51
PW
1758.31 1793.47 1829.34 1865.93 1903.25
($0.00)
($131.72) ($94.48) ($60.28) ($28.86) ($0.00)
