Decision Analysis in Quantitative Decision Making

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^wne|j|n|jsg Lgbjrjke Mnfjei Lgbjrjke Nenazrjr \djr lkbwmge| yjaa |gaa zkw |dg lgbjrjke nenazrjr% \dn| dky nel je ydjbd rj|wn|jker yg bne mnfg lgbjrjker nel ydn| ng |dg mg|dklr oz ydjbd yg bne |nfg lgbjrjke onrgl ke%

Lkbwmge| Kw|ajeg0 Je|klwb|jke Rjt R|gxr je Lgbjrjke Mnfjei \zxgr Kc Lgbjrjke Mnfjei Gesjkemge|r Gesjkemge|r Lgbjrjke Mnfjei Welg Webg|nje|z Lgbjrjke Mnfjei Welg _jrf Rgerj|jsj|z Nenazrjr

Fdnyn`n Ensggl Dnjlg Wejsgrj|z Kc Mnenigmge| nel \gbdekakiz! Andkg Xnfjr|ne Rwelnz! Cgownz 89! ?8>8

^WNE\J\N\JSG LGBJRJKE MNFJEI Je|rklwb|jke \k Lgbjjke Nenazj0 Lgbjrj Lgbjrjke ke mnfjei mnfjei jr sgz sgz jmxk| jmxk|ne| ne| xn| je nez fjel kc owrjeg owrjegrr% rr% \k |nfg |nfg lgbjrjke jre‚| n oji lgna ow| |k |nfg |dg jid| lgbjrjke ke xn|jbwan |jmg yj|d bkmxag|g na|gen|jsgr nel cnb|r nel cjiwgr jr jmxk|ne|% Rk dgg J ykwal ajfg |k ljrbwrr |dg ‑Lgbjrjke Nenazrjr” je |dg bke|gt| kc ^wne|j|n|jsg Lgbjrjke Mnfjei! n xn| kc r|n|jr|jbna |gbdej~wg je |dg owrjegrr% Yg dnsg |dg rjt r|gxr je lgbjrjke mnfjei% >% Bagna Bagnaz z lgcjeg lgcjeg |dg xk xkoag oagm m ?% Ajr| naa |dg xkrrjo xkrrjoag ag na|ge na|gen|jsg n|jsgr r 2% Jlge|jcz Jlge|jcz naa |dg |dg xkrrjoag xkrrjoag kw|bkmg kw|bkmgr r k r|n|gr r|n|gr kc en|wg en|wg <% Ajr| |dg xnzkccr xnzkccr k xkcj|r xkcj|r je cke| cke| kc gnbd na|gen na|gen|jsg |jsgr r 7% Rgagb| Rgagb| keg mn|dgmn| mn|dgmn|jbna jbna lgbjrjk lgbjrjke e |dgkz |dgkz mklga mklga 3% Nx Nxxa xaz z ||dg dg mklg mklgaa

Gtnmxag ^wg|jke0 Naj yne|r |k gr|noajrd |dg cnb|kz je Xnfjr|ne% Dg dnr |yk kw|bkmgr k r|n|gr kc en|wg ydjbd ng cnsknoag mnfg| nel wecnsknoag mnfg|% Dg bne gj|dg gr|noajrd anr| cnb|kz! rmnaa cnb|kz k dg yke‚| ik ck |dg cnb|kz |dn| mgner lk ek|djei% Jc dg gr|noajrdgr n anig cnb|kz! dg bkwal gne xkcj| kc XF_ ?88!888 k akkrg XF_ >48!888 je wecnsknoag mnfg|% Jc dg gr|noajrdgr |dg rmnaa cnb|kz! dg bkwal gne XF_ >88!888 je cnsknoag mnfg|% Dg bkwal akrg XF_ ?8 ?8!88 !888 8 je wecnsk wecnskno noag ag mnfg| mnfg|%% Eky |dg xwxkr xwxkrg g kc gr|noa gr|noajrd jrdjei jei |dg cnb|kz jr |k gne mntjmwm xkcj|%

ensggl|n`jHimnja%bkm

Xnig Ewmog0

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Eky jc yg rdnxg |dg noksg gtnmxag je n |nowan ckm! yg yjaa ig| |djr fjel kc |noag nr ijsge ogaky%

R\N\GR KC EN\W_G CNSK_NOAG MN_FG\ $XF_*

WECNSK_NOAG MN_FG\ $XF_*

GR\NOAJRD AN_IG CNB\K_Z

?88!888

->48!888

GR\NOAJRD RMNAA CNB\K_Z

>88!888

-?8!888

8

8

NA\G_EN\JSGR

LK EK\DJEI

\zxg kc lgbjjke mnfjei gesjrkemge|0 Yg bne mnfg lgbjrjker je |dgg gesjkemge|r% >% Lgbjrjke Mnfjei Welg Bg|nje|z $Yg nargnlz feky* feky*

ijsge* ?% Lgbjrjke Mnfjei Welg Webg|nje|z $Xrkonojaj|z j ek| ijsge* 2% Lgbjrjke Mnfjei Welg _jrf $Xrkonojaj|z j ijsge* ijsge *


Xnig Ewmog0

2

Lgbjjke Mnfjei Welgr Bgr|nje|z0 Je |djr gesjkemge|! yg nagnlz feky ydn| jr ogr| ck wr% Yg feky |dg na|gen|jsgr nel grwa|r nel yg bdkkrg |dg ogr| en|wnaaz% Ajfg jc J dnsg >88!888 _wxggr nel J yne| |k jesgr|! |dge J ykwal ajfg |k kxge n onef‚r rnsjei nbbkwe| ydjbd yjaa ijsg mg mkg je|ggr|% Ajfg J dnsg |dg kx|jker kc 7' neewnaaz! >8' neewnaaz nel >?' neewnaaz% Rk J ykwal nw|kmn|jbnaaz nel en|wnaaz bdkkrg >?'%

Lgbjjke Mnfjei Welgr Webgr|nje|z0 Je |djr gesjkemge|! xkonojaj|z jr ek| ijsge% Rk yg dnsg |dg cjsg rj|wn|jker welg ydjbd yg bne mnfg lgbjrjker% >% Mntj ntjmnt ?% Mntj ntjmje 2% Bj|g Bj|gjke jke kc _gnaj _gnajrm rm <% G~wn G~wnaa aaz z Ajf Ajfga gaz z 7% Mjej Mjejmn mnt t _gi _gig g||

Ag|‚r ljrbwrr |dg Mntjmnt cjr|%

Mntjmnt0 Yg wrwnaaz wrg |dg kx|jmjr|jb k xkrj|jsg |djefjei nxxknbd dgg% Yg yjaa bdkkrg ydjbd yjaa ijsg wr mntjmwm xnzkcc% Ag|‚r dnsg n akkf |k |dg |noag |dn| yg dnsg bker|wb|gl ogckg ljrbwrrjei |dg gesjkemge|r% R|n|g Kc En|wrg Na|gren|jsg G|noajd Anrig Cnb|krz G|noajd Rmnaa Cnb|krz Lk Ek|djei

Cnskrnoag Mnrfg| ?88!888

Wecnskrnoag Mnrfg| ->48!888

Mntjmwm je n _ky ?88!888

>88!888

-?8!888

>88!888

8

8

8


Xnig Ewmog0

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Jc yg ng |nfjei lgbjrjke welg Mntjmnt! yg yjaa ik ck gr|noajrdjei n anig cnb| cnb|k kz z ogbn ogbnwr wrg g |dg |dg xnzk xnzkcc cc kc |dg |dg ani anig g cnb|k cnb|kz z jr djid djidg g nmke nmkei i naa naa |dg |dg xnzkccr kc na|gen|jsgr% Rk |dg rdnlgl xn| jr |dg neryg%

Mntjmje0 Mntjmje jr |dg |k|naaz kxxkrj|g |k |dg Mntjmnt% Je |djr gesjkemge|! yg |nfg |dg xgrrjmjr|jb nxxknbd% Je |djr rbgenjk! yg yjaa |nfg |dg akygr| xnzkcc ydjbd yjaa og ajfg lgbgnrjei |dg jrf cnb|k% Yg yjaa rgg |dg snawg ydjbd yjaa og mjejmwm je n ky% Eky |nfg |dg noksg |noag%

R|n|g Kc En|wrg Na|gren|jsg G|noajd Anrig Cnb|krz G|noajd Rmnaa Cnb|krz Lk Ek|djei



Mjejmwm je n _ky ?88!888

>88!888

-?8!888

>88!888

8

8

8

Jc yg akkf n| |dg noksg |noag! yg yjaa bkmg |k feky |dn| yg yjaa ek| gr|noajrd |dg cnb|kz k zkw bne rnz lk ek|djei% \dg akygr| snawg je n ky jr 8 |dn| jr fjel kc mjejmwm jrf%

Brj|grjke Kc _gnajm0 Je |djr |djr rj|w rj|wn|j n|jke ke!! yg ng ng ijsg ijsge e |dg |dg xgb xgbge ge|ni |nig g kc gj|d gj|dg g xgrrj xgrrjmj mjr|j r|jb b k kx|jmjr|jb% Ajfg n ~wgr|jke mnz bke|nje |dn| |dg xgrke jr 48' kx|jmjr|jb% Rk |dg |dg xko xkono noja jaj| j|z z yjaa yjaa og 8%48 8%48 nel nel 8%?8 8%?8%% 8%48 8%48 kc kx|j kx|jmj mjr| r|jb jb nel nel 8%?8 8%?8 kc xgrrjmjr|jb% Yg dnsg |k bkmxag|g |dg > k >88' ajfg 8%48&8%?8=> R|n|g Kc En|wrg Na|gren|jsg G|noajd Anrig Cnb|krz G|noajd Rmnaa Cnb|krz Lk Ek|djei



Brj|grjke Kc _gnajm >?
>88!888

-?8!888

93!888

8

8

8

Yg bne nark bnaa bj|gjke kc gnajrm nr Ygjid|gl Nsgnig% \dg ckmwan kc bnabwan|jei ygjid|gl nsgnig jr ijsge ogaky%

Ygjid|gl Nsgrnig = ξ $Mntjmwm je n ky* & $>-ξ* $Mjejmwm je n ky* ensggl|n`jHimnja%bkm

Xnig Ewmog0

7

= 8%48$?88!888* & $>-8%?8*$->48888* = >?
Ek|g0 |dg snawg kc ξ yjaa og ijsge |k zkw% Je |djr |djr xn|| xn||g ge! e! yg yjaa yjaa |nfg |nfg |dg |dg djid djidg g gna gnajr jrm m snaw snawg g nmke nmkei i naa naa |dg |dg na|gen|jsgr% Je |djr |noag yg yjaa |nfg >?
G~wnaaz Ajfgaz $Anxanbg*0 G~wnaaz ajfgaz bj|gjke wrgr |dg nsgnig kw|bkmg% Keg bj|gjke |dn| wrgr naa |dg xnzkccr ck gnbd na|gen|jsg jr g~wnaaz ajfgaz% J| jr nark bnaagl Anxanbg lgbj lgbjrj rjke ke bj| bj|g gjk jke% e% \djr \djr jesk jeskas asgr gr cjel cjelje jei i |dg |dg nsg nsgni nig g xnzk xnzkcc cc ck ck gnbd gnbd na|g na|gen| en|js jsg g nel rgagb| rgagb|jsg jsg |dg na|g na|gen| en|jsg jsg yj|d yj|d |dg djidgr djidgr|| nsgn nsgnig% ig% \dg g~wnaaz ajfgaz nxxknbd nrrwmgr |dn| naa xkonojaj|jgr kc kbbwgebg ck |dg r|n|gr kc en|wg ng g~wna nel |dwr gnbd r|n|g kc en|wg jr g~wnaaz ajfgaz%

Na|gren|jsg G|noajd Anrig Cnb|krz G|noajd Rmnaa Cnb|krz Lk Ek|djei

R|n|g Kc En|wrg Cnskrnoag Wecnskrnoag Mnrfg| Mnrfg| ?88!888 ->48!888

Brj|grjke Kc _gnajm >8!888

>88!888

-?8!888

<8!888

8

8

8

Je |dg noksg |noag! yg yjaa |nfg |dg nsgnig kc gnbd na|gen|jsg ajfg ck anig cnb|kz! yg yjaa nll ?88!888 nel ->48!888 nel ljsjlg j| ke ?! yg yjaa ig| >8!888% Rnmg jr ck rmnaa cnb|kz% Nc|g ig||jei naa |dg snawgr! yg yjaa rgg |dn| |dg djidgr| nsgnig jr kc gr|noajrdjei n rmnaa cnb|kz ydjbd dnr |dg snawg wxggr <8!888% Rk kw lgbjrjke yjaa og gr|noajrdjei n rmnaa cnb|kz%

Mjejmnt _girg|0 \djr bj|gjke jr onrgl ke kxxk|wej|z akrr% Yg yjaa ljrbwrr nel lny |dg kxxk|wej|z akrr |noag% Kxxk|wej|z akrr gcgr |k |dg ljccggebg og|ygge |dg kx|jmna xkcj| k xnzkcc ck n ijsge r|n|g kc en|wg nel |dg nb|wna xnzkcc gbgjsgl ck n xn|jbwan lgbjrjke% Je k|dg yklr! j| jr |dg nmkwe| akr| oz ek| xjbfjei |dg ogr| na|gen|jsg je n ijsge kw|bkmg%


Xnig Ewmog0

3

Kxxkr|wej|z Ak \noag R|n|gr Kc En|wg Cnskrnoag Wecnskrnoag Mnrfg| Mnrfg| ?88!888 ?88!888 8 - $->48!888* ?88!888 >88!888 8 - $-?8!888* ?88!888 - 8 8-8

Na|gren|jsg G|noajd Anrig Cnb|krz G|noajd Rmnaa Cnb|krz Lk Ek|djei

R|n|g Kc En|wrg Cnskrnoag Wecnskrnoag Mnrfg| Mnrfg|

Mntjmwm je n _ky

8

>48!888

>48!888

>88!888 ?88!888

?8!888 8

>88!888 ?88!888

Dgg |dg mjejmwm snawg kc ‑Mntjmwm je n _ky” jr >88!888 rk kw mjejmnt jr >8 >88! 8!88 888% 8% \dn| \dn| mgner mgner yg yjaa yjaa ik ck ck gr|no gr|noaj ajrdj rdjei ei n rmna rmnaaa cnb|k cnb|kz z%% J| jr ogbnwrg kc mjejmjpjei |dg mntjmwm kxxk|wej|z akrr% Eky yg dnsg bkmxag|gl |dg ge|jg lgbjrjke mnfjei bj|gjke ck lgbjrjke mnfjei welg webg|nje|z%


Xnig Ewmog0

9

Lgbjjke Mnfjei Welgr _jf0 Je lgbjrjke mnfjei welg jrf! J dnsg nagnlz mge|jkegl |dn| yg ng ijsge |dg xkonojaj|jgr% \dn| mgner yg ng nyng kc rwbbgrr k cnjawg kc lgbjrjke |k rkmg gt|ge|% Yg rgagb| |dg na|gen|jsg yj|d |dg djidgr| gtxgb|gl snawg% Yg nark wrg |dg xkonojaj|jgr yj|d |dg kxxk|wej|z akrr |noag |k mjejmjpg |dg gtxgb| gtxgb|gl gl kxxk| kxxk|wej wej|z |z akrr% akrr% Je lgbjrj lgbjrjke ke mnfjei mnfjei welg welg jrf! jrf! yg yjaa yjaa ljr ljrbwr bwrr r nokw| Gtxgb|gl Mkeg|nz Snawg! Gtxgb|gl Snawg Kc Xgcgb| Jeckmn|jke! nel Gtxgb|gl Kxxk|wej|z Akrr%

Gtxgb|gl Mkeg|nrz Snawg0 \dg GMS mgner |dg akei we nsgnig snawg kc |dn| lgbjrjke% \dg GMS ck ne na|g na|ge en|j n|jsg sg jr `wr| `wr| |dg |dg rw rwm m kc xkrr xkrrjo joag ag xnzk xnzkcc ccr r kc |dg |dg na|g na|ge en|j n|jsg sgr! r! gnbd gnbd ygjid| ygjid|gl gl oz |dg xkono xkonojaj jaj|z |z kc |dn| |dn| xnzkcc xnzkcc kbbw kbbwjei jei |dg gtxgb| gtxgb|gl gl snawg snawg mn|gjna% Yg bne bnabwan|g GMS yj|d |dg ckaakyjei ckmwan% GMS $na|gen|jsg j* = $Xnzkcc kc cjr| r|n|g kc en|wg* T $xkonojaj|z kc cjr| r|n|g kc en|wg* & $Xnzkcc kc rgbkel r|n|g kc en|wg* T $xkonojaj|z kc rgbkel r|n|g kc en|wg* & ‣%%$Xnzkcc kc j r|n|g kc en|wg* T $xkonojaj|z kc j r|n|g kc en|wg* Eky ag|‚r bnabwan|g |dg GMS kc gsgz na|gen|jsg% \dg xkonojaj|z jr ijsge |dn| jr 8%7 GMS $Anig Cnb|kz* >8!888

=

$8%7* $?88!888* & $8%7* $->48!888

GMS $Rmnaa Cnb|kz* =<8!888

=

$8%7* $>88!888* $>88!888* & $8%7* $-?8!888* $-?8!888*

GMS $Lk Ek|djei*

=

$8%7* $8* & $8%7* $8*

*

=

=

8

Eky yg bne xw| |dgrg snawgr je |dg |noag% R|n|g Kc En|wrg Na|gren|jsg G|noajd Anrig Cnb|krz G|noajd Rmnaa Cnb|krz Lk Ek|djei

Cnskrnoag Mnrfg| ?88!888 >88!888 8

Wecnskrnoag Mnrfg| ->48!888 -?8!888

8 ensggl|n`jHimnja%bkm

GMS >8!888 <8!888 8 Xnig Ewmog0

4

Xrkonojaj|jg

8%7

8%7

\dg anigr| snawg kc GMS jr kc rmnaa cnb|kz% Rk Naj egglr |k ik nel gr|noajrd n rmnaa cnb|kz% \dg akei we nsgnig kc rmnaa cnb|kz jr djid%

Gtxgb|gl Snawg Kc Xgrcgb| Jeckrmn|jke $GSXJ*0 Naj yne|r |k xklwbg nek|dg xklwb| nel dg jr ek| nyng kc gna mnfg| rj|wn|jke% Naj ynr rwiigr|gl oz |dg rbjge|jcjb mnfg|jei bkmxnez |k nsnja |dgj rgsjbgr ydjbd yjaa |gaa |dg ydkag rbgenjk nc|g bkelwb|jei |dg rwsgz |dn| ydg|dg jr j| ikkl ck Naj |k xklwbg nek|dg xklwb| k ek| nbbkljei |k mnfg| rj|wn|jke; \dg cjm jr bdnijei 37!888 wxggr% \dg |gm GSXJ jr wrgl |k bdgbf |dg yk|d kc |dg jeckmn|jke |dn| |dg cjm jr ijsjei je n xn|jbwan nmkwe|% \dg ckmwan ck GSXJ0 GSXJ = gtxgb|gl snawg yj|d xgcgb| jeckmn|jke ‒ mntjmwm GMS Eky dgg bkmgr nek|dg ~wgr|jke |dn| ydn| |dg dgaa Gtxgb|gl Snawg Yj|d Xgcgb| Jeckmn|jke jr; Rk dgg jr |dg ckmwan ck GSyXJ% GSyXJ = $ogr| xnzkcc ck cjr| r|n|g kc en|wg* T $xkonojaj|z kc cjr| r|n|g kc en|wg* & $ogr| xnzkcc ck rgbkel r|n|g kc en|wg* T $xkonojaj|z kc rgbkel r|n|g kc en|wg* ‣‣% $ogr| xnzkcc ck j r|n|g kc en|wg* T $xkonojaj|z kc j r|n|g kc en|wg* R|n|g Kc En|wrg Na|gren|jsg G|noajd Anrig Cnb|krz G|noajd Rmnaa Cnb|krz Lk Ek|djei Xrkonojaj|jg



GMS >8!888

>88!888

-?8!888

<8!888

8

8

8

8%7

8%7

Akkf n| |dg |noag ijsge noksg% Yg dnsg |yk r|n|gr kc en|wg% Keg jr cnsknoag cn sknoag mnfg| nel |dg k|dg keg jr wecnsknoag mnfg|% \dg ogr| na|gen|jsg ck cnsknoag mnfg| jr Gr|noajrdjei n anig cnb|kz yj|d |dg xnzkcc kc ?88!888% \dg ogr| na|gen|jsg ck wecnsknoag mnfg| jr Lk Ek|djei yj|d |dg xnzkcc kc 8 keaz% Oz wrjei |djr jeckmn|jke! yg bne xw| |dg snawgr je kw GSyXJ ckmwan% ensggl|n`jHimnja%bkm

Xnig Ewmog0

:

GSyXJ = $?88888*$8%7* & $8*$8%7* = >88!888 Yg dnsg |dg GSyXJ >88!888 wxggr% Eky yg dnsg nark |dg ckmwan kc GSXJ ydgg |dg snawg kc GSyXJ jr wrgl%

GSXJ = GSyXJ ‒ Mntjmwm GMS =

>8 888 8 ‒ < 8 888

=

38 ! 88 8

\dwr! Naj ykwal og yjaajei |k xnz ck xgcgb| jeckmn|jke jr 38!888 wxggr nel |dg |dg cjm cjm jr bdn bdnij ijei ei 37 37!8 !888 88 wxg wxggr gr%% Rk Naj Naj yke‚ yke‚|| ik ck ck |dg |dg rb rbjg jge| e|jc jcjb jb mnfg|jei cjm ogbnwrg |dg snawg kc jeckmn|jke jr ek| 37!888%

Gtxgb|gl Kxxkr|wej|z Ak0 \dg na|gen|jsg nxxknbd |k mntjmjpjei |dg GMS jr |k mjejmjpg gtxgb|gl kxxk|wej kxxk|wej|z |z akrr% Yg yjaa yjaa bker|wb| bker|wb| kxxk|wej|z kxxk|wej|z akrr |noag cjr|% \dge |dg GKA jr bkmxw|gl ck gnbd na|gen|jsg oz mwa|jxazjei |dg kxxk|wej|z akrr oz |dg xkonojaj|z nel nlljei |dgrg |kig|dg%

Na|gren|jsg G|noajd Anrig Cnb|krz G|noajd Rmnaa Cnb|krz Lk Ek|djei Xrkonojaj|jg

R|n|g Kc En|wrg Cnskrnoag Mnrfg| Wecnskrnoag Mnrfg| 8 >48!888 >88!888 ?8!888 ?88!888 8 8%7 8%7

\dg \dg noks noksg g |noa |noag g jr lgrb lgrbj joj ojei ei |dg |dg Kxxk Kxxk| |we wej| j|z z Akrr Akrr \noa \noag% g% Eky Eky yg yjaa yjaa bnabwan|g |dg Gtxgb|gl Kxxk|wej|z Akrr ck gsgz na|gen|jsg% GKA Ck Anig Cnb|kz = $8%7* $8* & $8%7* $>48888* $>48888*

= :8888

GKA Ck Rmnaa Cnb|kz Cnb|kz = $8%7* $8%7* $>88!888 $>88!888** & $8%7* $8%7* $?8!888 $?8!888** = 38888 GKA Ck Lk Ek|djei

= $8%7* $?88!888* $?88!888* & $8%7* $8*


= >88888

Xnig Ewmog0

>8

Eky yg yjaa ninje bker|wb| |dg |noag kc kxxk|wej|z akrr nel yjaa xw| |dg snawgr kc GKA je cke| kc gnbd na|gen|jsg%

R|n|g Kc En|wrg Na|gren|jsg G|noajd Anrig Cnb|krz G|noajd Rmnaa Cnb|krz Lk Ek|djei

Cnskrnoag Mnrfg| 8

Wecnskrnoag Mnrfg| >48!888

GKA :8!888

>88!888

?8!888

38!888

?88!888

8

>88!888

Dgg yg dnsg |dg grwa|r je n |nowan ckm% J dnsg nagnlz |kal zkw |dn| kw lgbjrjke yjaa og onrgl ke |dg mjejmwm GKA% Rk |dg bdkjbg |dn| Naj yjaa rgagb| jr |k gr|noajrd n rmnaa cnb|kz nr |dg Gtxgb|gl Kxxk|wej|z Akrr jr agrr |dne |dg GKA kc Anig cnb|kz nel jc dg lke‚| bker|wb| n cnb|kz% Keg |djei |k gmgmog jr |dn| mjejmwm GKA yjaa naynzr grwa| je |dg rnmg lgbjrjke nr mntjmwm GMS nel |dn| |dg GSXJ yjaa naynzr g~wna |k mjejm GKA% Zkw bne bkmxng |dg GKA kc rmnaa cnb|kz yj|d |dg GSXJ |dn| yg dnsg bnabwan|gl% \dg snawgr kc ok|d |dg |djeir ng 38!888 wxggr%


Xnig Ewmog0

>>

Rgej|jsj|z Nenazj0 Je xgsjkwr xnigr! yg dnsg ljrbwrrgl nel lgmker|n|gl |dg ogr| lgbjrjke yj|d yj|d fekye fekye xkono xkonojaj jaj|jg |jgr r ck Naj Naj ynr |k gr|noa gr|noajrd jrd n rmnaa rmnaa cnb|k cnb|kz z yj|d yj|d ne gtxgb|gl snawg kc <8!888 wxggr% \djr bkebawrjke lgxgelr ke |dg snawgr kc gbkekmjb bkerg~wgebgr nel |dg |yk xkonojaj|z snawgr kc n cnsknoag nel ne wecnsknoag mnfg|% Rgerj|jsj|z nenazrjr jesgr|jin|gr dky kw lgbjrjke mjid| bdneig ijsge n bdneig je |dg xkoagm ln|n% Je |djr xn|! yg jesgr|jin|g |dg jmxnb| |dn| n bdneig je |dg xkonojaj|z snawg ykwal dnsg ke |dg lgbjrjke cnbj cnbjei ei Naj% Naj% Yg cjr cjr|| ykwa ykwal l ajfg ajfg |k lgcj lgcjeg eg |dg |dg ‑X ‑X” ” ydjb ydjbd d jr xko xkono noja jaj| j|z z kc cnsknoag mnfg| nel ‑>-X” jr |dg xkonojaj|z kc wecnsknoag mnfg|% Ogbnwrg yg dnsg keaz |yk kw|bkmgr k zkw bne rnz r|n|gr kc en|wg% Yg bne gtxgrr |dg GMS je |gmr kc X nr rdkye je |dg ckaakyjei g~wn|jker% J yjaa nark rdky j| ke |dg inxd% GMS ck anig cnb|kz

= ?88888X ?88888X ‒ >48888$>-X* >48888$>-X* = 248888X ‒ >48888

GMS ck rmnaa cnb|kz

= >88888X >88888X ‒ ?8888$>-X* ?8888$>-X* = >?8888X ‒ ?8888

GMS ck lk ek|djei

= 8x & 8$>-X* =8

Eky yg yjaa lgcjeg |yk xkje|r% Xkje| > yjaa og GMS lk ek|djei = GMS rmnaa cnb|kz! Xkje| ? yjaa og GMS rmnaa xane| = GMS anig xane|%

Xkje| >0

8 = >?8888X ‒ ?8888

X = ?8888+>?8888

Xkje Xkje|| ?0 ?0

=

8%>39

>?88 >?8888 88X X ‒ ?88 ?8888 88 = 248 24888 888X 8X ‒ >48 >4888 888 8

?388 ?3 8888 88X X = >38 3888 888! 8!

X = >3 >388 8888 88+? +?38 3888 888 8

= 8%3> 8%3>7 7

Eky |dg egt| ykf jr |k xw| naa |dg ln|n je n |nowan ckm% ensggl|n`jHimnja%bkm

Xnig Ewmog0

>?

Og| Na|gren|jsg Lk Ek|djei Rmnaa Cnb|kz Anig Cnb|kz

_neig Kc X Snawg Agrr |dne 8%>39 8%>39 - 8%3>7 Ign|g |dne 8%3>7

Dgg yg dnsg |dg |nowan ckm kc kw nenazrjr% Jc |dg snawg kc X jr agrr |dne 8%>39 yg yjaa ik ck |dg kx|jke kc Lk Ek|djei% Eky j| bkwal ogbkmg gnrjg jc yg |nfg |djr ln|n ke |dg inxd%

Nr zkw bne rgg je |dg inxd! |dg ogr| lgbjrjke jr |k lk ek|djei nr akr nr X jr og|ygge 8 nel |dg xkonojaj|z nrrkbjn|gl yj|d xkje| >! ydgg |dg GMS ck lkjei ek|djei jr g~wna |k |dg GMS ck |dg rmnaa cnb|kz% Ydge X jr og|ygge |dg xkonojaj|jgr ck xkje| > nel ?! |dg ogr| lgbjrjke jr |k gr|noajrd rmnaa cnb|kz% Xkje| ? ydgg GMS kc rmnaa cnb|kz jr g~wna |k GMS kc anig cnb|kz% Ydge X jr ign|g |dne xkonojaj|z kc xkje| ?! |dg lgbjrjke yjaa og gr|noajrdjei n anig cnb|kz%


Xnig Ewmog0

>2

_gnl Mg0 Zkw dnsg gnl |dg ydkag lkbwmge|% J dnsg |nfge dgax ckm |dg ek|gr ijsge oz mz |gnbdg% \dg |kxjb jr sgz jmxk|ne| nel egglr |k og sgz gnrz rk |dn| r|wlge|r bkwal welgr|nel nokw| |dg lgbjrjke% Rk oz |dg inbg kc Naand nel mz |gnbdg! J |jgl mz ogr| je mnfjei zkw welgr|nel nokw| |dg |kxjb% N| agnr| J nm rwg |dn| J dnsg yj||ge |dg ydkag lkbwmge| je rwbd n mneeg |dn| gsgzkeg ydk dnr n aj||ag rgerg nokw| |dg r|n|jr|jbna |kxjbr bne welgr|nel |djr ydkag lkbwmge|% Jc zkw zkw ajfg ajfg |djr |djr lkbw lkbwmg mge| e|!! fjel fjelaz az gcg gcgr r |k k|dg k|dg r|wlge|r! cjgelr nel |k ydkm j| mnz bkebge% Lk bkmmge| ke |djr lkbwmge| jc J nm ykei nezydgg je |djr lkbwmge|% Lk |gaa mg% Mz gmnja nllgrr jr yj||ge je |dg gel kc gsgz xnig%


Xnig Ewmog0

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Decision Analysis in Quantitative Decision Making

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