POLITICAL SCIENCE PROJECT UNI TED STATE STATE S PRE SI DE NTI AL E LE CTI ONS 2016”
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PROJECT SUBMITTED TO: DR. MONIKA SRIVASTAVA
(ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE)
PROJECT SUBMITTED BY: ISHI SEHGAL R ISHI
Semester III, Section B
R OLL OLL NO. 115
AM MANOHAR LOHIYA NATIONAL LAW DR . R AM
U NIVERSITY. LUCKNOW, UTTAR PRADESH.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I, Rishi Sehgal, would like to humbly present this project to Dr. Monika Srivastava. I would first of all like to express my most sincere gratitude to Dr. Monika Srivastava for his encouragement and guidance regarding several aspects of this project. I am thankful for being given the opportunity of doing a project on ‘United States Presidential Elections 2016’. I am thankful to the library staff as well as the IT lab staff for all the conveniences they have provided me with, which have played a major role in the completion of this paper. I would like to thank God for keeping me in good health and senses to complete this project. Last but definitely not the least, I am thankful to my seniors for all their support, tips and valuable advice whenever needed. I present this project with a humble heart.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND ................................................................................................ 3 CHAPTER 2: INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 3 CHAPTER 3: VOTING PROCESS .......................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER 4 : PARTIES ........................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 5 : PRIMARIES AND RESULTS ........................................................................ 7 CHAPTER 6: THE CANDIDATES ........................................................................................10 DONALD TRUMP (Republican) ......................................................... .............................................................. .. 10 HILIARY CLINTON (Democrat) ................................................................................................ ........................ 18
CHAPTER 7 : CONCLUSION ...............................................................................................24
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CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that the President and Vice President of the United States must be natural-born citizens of the United States at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President.
CHAPTER 2: INTRODUCTION The United States presidential election of 2016, scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2016, will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors, who in turn will vote for a new president and vice president through the Electoral College. The term limit established in the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution prevents the incumbent president, Barack Obama of the Democratic Party, from being elected to a third term. The 2016 election will determine the 45th President and 48th Vice President of the United States (assuming President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden serve out the remainder of their terms). The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses took place between February 1 and June 14, 2016, staggered among the 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who in turn elect their party's presidential nominee. The Republican National Convention took place from July 18 – 21, 2016, in Cleveland, Ohio, while the Democratic National Convention took place from July 25 – 28, 2016, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Businessman and reality television personality Donald Trump became the Republican Party's presidential nominee on July 19, 2016, after defeating Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Ohio GovernorJohn Kasich, Florida Senator Marco Rubio and several other candidates in the Republican primary elections. Former Secretary of State and New York Senator Hillary Clinton became the Democratic Party's presidential nominee on July 26, 2016, after defeating Vermont Senator Bernie. Clinton is the first female presidential candidate nominated by a major political party. It is also the first election since 1944 that had major party candidates from the same home state and all of whom would be from New York.
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Various third party and independent presidential candidates are also running in the election. Two such candidates have obtained enough ballot access to mathematically win the electoral college and have been featured in major national polls: the Libertarian Party nominee, former Governor Gary Johnson; and the Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Johnson and Stein ran as their parties' presidential nominees in the 2012 election.
CHAPTER 3: VOTING PROCESS The election of the President of the United States is not a direct, national election, but an indirect vote in which citizens elect members of the Electoral College in each of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia (the capital, Washington, DC). It is the members of these Electoral Colleges who subsequently elect the President and the Vice President1. Each state is allocated a number of Electoral College electors equal to the number of its senators and representatives in Congress, based on the state’s population. The most populous state, California, has 55 electoral votes, while the less populous states like Alaska or Delaware have just three electoral votes. In total there are 538 electors (corresponding to the 435 members of the House of Representatives + 100 members of the Senate + 3 electors from the District of Colombia). A presidential candidate needs 270 of these electors’ votes to be elected President. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses held in each U.S. state and territory forms part of the nominating process of United States presidential elections. The United States Constitution has never specified the process; political parties have developed their own procedures over time. Some states hold only primary elections, some hold only caucuses, and others use a combination of both. These primaries and caucuses are staggered, generally beginning in either late-January or early-February, and ending about mid-June before the general election in November. State and local governments run the primary elections, while caucuses are private events that are directly run by the political parties themselves. Each party determines how many delegates it allocates to each state. Along with those "pledged" delegates chosen during the primaries and caucuses, state delegations to bot the Democratic and Republican conventions also include “unpledged who have a vote. For Republicans, they consist of the three top party officials who serve At Large from each state and territory. Democrats have a more expansive group of unpledged delegates called "super delegates", who are party leaders and elected officials (PLEO). If no single candidate has secured an absolute majority of delegates (including both pledged and unpledged), then a "brokered convention" occurs: all pledged delegates are "released" after the first round of voting and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate, and then additional rounds take place until there is a winner with an absolute majority.
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Caldwell, Leigh Ann "A Viewer's Guide to the Next Year in Presidential Politics". NBC News.
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The staggered nature of the presidential primary season allows candidates to concentrate their resources in each area of the country one at a time instead of campaigning in every state simultaneously. In some of the less populous states, this allows campaigning to take place on a much more personal scale. However, the overall results of the primary season may not be representative of the U.S. electorate as a whole: voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and other less populous states which traditionally hold their primaries and caucuses in lateJanuary/February usually have a major impact on the races, while voters in California and other large states which traditionally hold their primaries in June generally end up having no say because the races are usually over by then. As a result, more states vie for earlier primaries, known as "front-loading", to claim a greater influence in the process. The national parties have used penalties and awarded bonus delegates in efforts to stagger the system over broadly a 90 day window. Where state legislatures set the primary or caucus date, sometimes the out-party in that state has endured penalties in the number of delegates it can send to the national convention. A caucus is a local meeting financed by the major parties in which rank-and-file voters convene to display support for the various candidates. They are usually held at a public venue, such as a school gym or a town hall2. Those who take part in a caucus select delegates who will represent them in voting for their candidate at the national convention level. Marking the start of the election season, the first caucuses were held in Iowa on Feb. 1. This year, Iowa Republicans cast a secret ballot for their preferred candidate at the caucus; while Iowa Democrats physically arranged themselves based on the candidate they supported and then counted the number of supporters for each candidate. If a Democratic candidate did not get at least 15 percent of voters on his side, the candidate was not considered viable, and caucus captains for the other candidates could lobby that candidate's designated voters to join their group. In contrast, Republicans did not mandate a specific viability threshold. Only 14 states in 2016 were having caucuses: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming. Different from caucuses, voters in primaries cast a secret ballot at designated polling locations. Paid for by the state, the primary system is bifurcated between closed and open primaries. Closed primaries are limited to eligible voters who are registered within the party before the primary. An open primary allows voters to register and participate in the primary election on the same day as the primary itself. "A caucus tends to bring out the 'establishment types' and the presidential primaries bring out people who are more seized by the passions of the moment," said David King, senior public policy lecturer at the Harvard Kennedy School. "The primary may appear to be more democratic, but those who vote in it are also the easiest group to mobilize and excite." 2
http://www.euronews.com/2016/01/29/the-us-presidential-primaries-explained.
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CHAPTER 4 : PARTIES The Democratic Party
The Democratic Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Republican Party. Tracing its heritage back to Thomas Jefferson and James Madison's Democratic-Republican Party, the modern-day Democratic Party was founded around 1828, making it the world's oldest active party. The Democrats' once dominant worldview was classical liberalism, while, especially in the rural South, populism was its leading characteristic. In the 1890s, under the influence of its three-time defeated presidential candidate William Jennings Bryan and the Populist Party, the party moved to the left from an economic point of view and, since Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal coalition in the 1930s, it has promoted a social-liberal platform, supporting social justice. Well into the 20th century, the party had conservative pro-business and southern conservative-populist anti-business wings. The New Deal Coalition of 1932 – 1964 attracted strong support from voters of recent European extraction — many of whom were Catholics based in the cities3. After Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal the business wing withered outside the South. After the racial turmoil of the 1960s most southern whites and many northern Catholics moved into the Republican Party at the presidential level. The once powerful labour union element became smaller and less supportive after 1970. White evangelicals and Southerners became heavily Republican at the state and local level in the 1990s. However, African Americans became a major Democratic element after 1964. After 2000, Latin Americans, Asians, single women and professional women moved toward the party as well. The Northeast and West Coast became Democratic strongholds by 1990 after the Republicans stopped appealing to socially liberal voters there. Overall the Democratic Party has retained a membership lead over its major rival the Republican Party (GOP). Today, the House Democratic caucus is composed mostly of progressives and centrists, with a smaller minority of conservative Democrats. The party's philosophy of modern liberalism advocates social and economic equality, along with the welfare state. It seeks to provide government intervention and regulation in the economy. These interventions, such as the introduction of social programs, support for labour unions, moves toward universal health care and equal opportunity, consumer protection, and environmental protection form the core of the party's economic policy. The party has united with smaller left-wing regional parties throughout the country such as the Farmer-Labour Party in Minnesota and the Nonpartisan League in North Dakota. There have been 15 Democratic presidents: the first was Andrew Jackson, who served from 1829 to 1837. The most recent is current U.S. President Barack Obama, who has been in office since 2009
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"President Map". The New York Times.
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The Republican Party
The Republican Party, commonly referred to as the GOP (abbreviation for Grand Old Party), is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, the other being its historic rival, the Democratic Party. There have been 18 Republican presidents, the first being Abraham Lincoln, who served from 1861 to 1865, when he was assassinated, and the most recent being George W. Bush, who served from 2001 to 2009. The most recent Republican presidential nominee was former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who lost in 2012 to incumbent Democrat Barack Obama. Businessman and reality television personality Donald Trump is the current Republican nominee for the 2016 election. The party is named after republicanism, the dominant value during the American Revolution. Founded by anti-slavery activists, modernists, ex-Whigs, and ex-Free Soilers in 1854, the Republicans dominated politics nationally and in the majority of northern States for most of the period between 1860 and 1932. Its current ideology is American conservatism. That contrasts with the Democrats' modern liberalism. The Republican Party's platform involves support for free market capitalism, free enterprise, business, a strong national defence, deregulation, restrictions on labour unions, social-conservative policies (particularly opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage), and traditional values, usually with a Judeo-Christian ethical foundation. Once dominant in the North-East and the Midwest, the party's core support now comes from the South and the Mountain West, as well as conservative Catholics and evangelicals across the country. In the 114th United States Congress, Republicans have their largest majority in the House of Representatives since the 1928 election and a majority of seats in the Senate. The party also holds a majority of governorships and state legislatures. Specifically, 68 out of 98 partisan state legislative chambers have Republican majorities.
CHAPTER 5 : PRIMARIES AND RESULTS Democratic Primaries
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who also served in the U.S. Senate and was the First Lady of the United States, became the first Democrat to announce a major candidacy for the presidency. Clinton made the announcement on April 12, 2015, via a video message. While Nationwide opinion polls in 2015 indicated that Clinton was the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, she faced challenges from Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who became the second candidate when he made a formal announcement on April 30, 2015, that he was running for the Democratic nomination. September 2015 polling numbers indicated a narrowing gap between Clinton and Sanders. On May 30, 2015, former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third candidate to enter the race. On June 3, 2015, Lincoln Chafee, former Independent Governor and Republican Senator of Rhode Island, became the fourth Democrat to announce his 7
candidacy.4 On July 2, 2015, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb became the fifth Democrat to announce his candidacy. On September 6, 2015, former Harvard law professor Lawrence Lessig became the sixth and final Democrat to announce his candidacy. On October 20, 2015, Webb announced his withdrawal from the Democratic primaries, and explored a potential Independent run. The next day Vice-President Joe Biden decided not to run, ending months of speculation, stating, "While I will not be a candidate, I will not be silent." On October 23, Chafee withdrew, stating that he hoped for "an end to the endless wars and the beginning of a new era for the United States and humanity." On November 2, after failing to qualify for the second DNC-sanctioned debate after adoption of a rule change negated polls which before might have necessitated his inclusion in the debate, Lessig withdrew as well, narrowing the field to Clinton, O'Malley, and Sanders. On February 1, 2016, in an extremely close contest, Clinton won the Iowa caucuses by a margin of 0.2% over Sanders. After winning no delegates in Iowa, O'Malley withdrew from the presidential race that day. On February 9, Sanders bounced back to win the New Hampshire primary with 60% of the vote. In the remaining two February contests, Clinton won the Nevada caucuses with 53% of the vote and scored a decisive victory in the South Carolina primary with 73% of the vote.5 On March 1, 11 states participated in the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries. Clinton won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia and 504 pledged delegates, while Sanders won Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont and 340 delegates. The following weekend, Sanders won victories in Kansas, Nebraska and Maine with 15- to 30-point margins, while Clinton won the Louisiana primary with 71% of the vote. On March 8, despite never having a lead in the Michigan primary, Sanders won by a small margin of 1.5% and outperforming polls by over 19 points, while Clinton won 83% of the vote in Mississippi.6 On March 15, the second of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Clinton won in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. Between March 22 and April 9, 2016, Sanders won six caucuses in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington and Wyoming, as well as the Wisconsin primary, while Clinton won the Arizona primary. On April 19, Clinton won the New York primary with 58% of the vote. On April 26, in the third of four "Super Tuesday" primaries dubbed the "Acela primary," she won contests in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania, while Sanders won in Rhode Island. Over the course of May, Sanders pulled off another surprise win in the Indiana primary and also won in West Virginia and Oregon, while Clinton won the Guam caucus and Kentucky primary. On June 4 and 5, Clinton won two victories in the Virgin Islands caucus and Puerto Rico primary. On June 6, 2016, the Associated Press and NBC News reported that Clinton had become the presumptive nominee after reaching the required number of delegates, including pledged delegates and super delegates, to secure the nomination, becoming the first woman to ever clinch the presidential nomination of a major United States political party. On June 7, Clinton secured a majority of pledged delegates after winning primaries in California, New 4
"Rhode Island's Chafee enters 2016 Democratic contest". Boston Herald. Associated Press. June 3, 2015 Strauss, Daniel (November 2, 2015). "Lessig drops out of presidential race". Politico. 6 "South Carolina Primary Results". The New York Times. 5
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Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, while Sanders only won in Montana and North Dakota. Clinton also won the final primary in Washington, D.C. on June 14. At the conclusion of the primary process, Clinton had won 2,204 pledged delegates (54% of the total) awarded by the primary elections and caucuses, while Sanders had won 1,847 (46%). Out of the 714 unpledged delegates or "super delegates" who will vote in the convention in July, Clinton has received endorsements from 560 (78%), while Sanders has received 47 (7%). Although Sanders had not formally dropped out of the race, he announced on June 16, 2016 that his main goal in the coming months would be to work with Clinton to defeat Trump in the general election. On July 8, appointees from the Clinton campaign, the Sanders campaign, and the Democratic National Committee negotiated a draft of the party's platform. On July 12, Sanders formally endorsed Clinton at a rally in New Hampshire in which he appeared with Clinton. On July 22, three days before the start of the Democratic National Convention, the Clinton campaign announced that Virginia Senator Tim Kaine had been selected as her running mate. Republican Primaries
Seventeen major candidates entered the race starting March 23, 2015, when Senator Ted Cruz of Texas was the first to announce his candidacy: former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson of Maryland, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, businesswoman Carly Fiorina of California, former Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, former Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Governor John Kasich of Ohio, former Governor George Pataki of New York, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Governor Rick Perry of Texas, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, businessman Donald Trump of New York and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. This was the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history. Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham and Pataki withdrew due to low polling numbers. Despite leading many polls in Iowa, Trump came in second to Cruz, after which Huckabee, Paul and Santorum withdrew due to poor performances at the ballot box. Following a sizable victory for Trump in the New Hampshire primary, Christie, Fiorina and Gilmore abandoned the race. Bush followed suit after scoring fourth place to Trump, Rubio and Cruz in South Carolina. On March 1, 2016, the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Rubio won his first contest in Minnesota, Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma and his home of Texas and Trump won the other seven states that voted. Failing to gain traction, Carson suspended his campaign a few days later. On March 15, 2016, the second of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Kasich won his only contest in his home state of Ohio and Trump won five primaries including Florida. Rubio suspended his campaign after losing his home state, but retained a large share of his delegates for the national convention, which he plans to release to Trump.
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Between March 16 and May 3, 2016, only three candidates remained in the race: Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Cruz won most delegates in four Western contests and in Wisconsin, keeping a credible path to denying Trump the nomination on first ballot with 1,237 delegates. However, Trump scored landslide victories in New York and five North-eastern states in April and he grabbed all 57 delegates in the Indiana primary of May 3, 2016. Without any further chances of forcing a contested convention, both Cruz and Kasich suspended their campaigns7. Trump remained the only active candidate and was declared the presumptive Republican nominee by Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus on the evening of May 3, 2016.
CHAPTER 6: THE CANDIDATES DONALD TRUMP (Republican) Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American businessman, television personality, author, politician, and the Republican Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2016 election. He is chairman of The Trump Organization, which is the principal holding company for his real estate ventures and other business interests.
Born and raised in New York City, Trump received a bachelor's degree in economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. While attending college, Trump worked in his father Fred Trump's real estate and construction firm. He assumed control of the business in 1973, and later renamed it The Trump Organization. During his career, Trump has built skyscrapers, hotels, casinos, golf courses, and numerous other developments, many of which bear his name, including Trump Place in Manhattan. He briefly sought the Reform Party's nomination in the 2000 presidential election but withdrew prior to any primary contests. Listed by Forbes among the wealthiest 400 of The World's Billionaires, Trump and his businesses, as well as his personal life, have for decades received prominent media exposure. Political positions
Trump's political positions are widely described by the media as "populist".8 He has described his political positions in various and often contradictory ways over time. Trump himself says "I have evolved on many issues. There are some issues that are very much the same; I've been constant on many issues. But I have evolved on certain issues." PolitiFact wrote that it is difficult to determine Trump's stance on issues, given his frequent changes in position and "his penchant for using confusing, vague and even contradictory language". Politifact counted at least 17 times when Trump said something and then denied having said it. Liberal economist and columnist Paul Krugman disputes that Trump is a populist, arguing that his policies favour the rich over those less well off. Harvard Kennedy School political scientist Pippa Norris has described Trump as a "populist authoritarian" analogous to European parties such as the Swiss People's Party, Austrian Freedom Party, Swedish 7 8
Rosenfeld, Everett. "Ted Cruz suspends presidential campaign". CNBC. "Donald Trump axed from event over Megyn Kelly blood comment" . BBC News.
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Democrats, and Danish People's Party. Columnist Walter Shapiro and political commentator Jonathan Chait describe Trump as authoritarian. Conservative commentator Mary Katharine Ham characterized Trump as a "casual authoritarian," saying "he is a candidate who has happily and proudly spurned the entire idea of limits on his power as an executive and doesn't have any interest in the Constitution and what it allows him to do and what does not allow him to do. That is concerning for people who are interested in limited government." Charles C. W. Cooke of the National Review has expressed similar views, terming Trump an "anticonstitutional authoritarian." Libertarian journalist Nick Gillespie, by contrast, calls Trump "populist rather than an authoritarian". Social issues
Trump describes himself as pro-life and opposes abortion with exceptions for rape, incest, and the health of the mother. The Susan B. Anthony List, an anti-abortion group, praised Trump's list of potential Supreme Court nominees as "exceptionally strong," while the abortion-rights group NARAL Pro-Choice America called the candidates on the list "a woman's worst nightmare." Trump has stated that he supports "traditional marriage". He opposes the 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges Supreme Court ruling that legalized same-sex marriage nationwide,9 saying he thinks the decision should be left to the states. He would "strongly consider" appointing Supreme Court justices that would overturn the ruling. Trump supports the Second Amendment and says he is opposed to gun control in general.10 He supports fixing the federal background check system so that criminal and mental health records are always put into the system. Trump opposes legalizing recreational marijuana but supports legalizing medical marijuana. Trump favors capital punishment. Economic issues
Trump's campaign's tax plan calls for reducing the corporate tax rate to 15%, concurrent with the elimination of various business loopholes and deductions. Personal income taxes would also be reduced; the top rate would be reduced from 39.6% to 25%, a large "zero bracket" would be created, and the alternative minimum tax would be eliminated, as would the estate tax (which currently applies to individual estates over $5.45 million or $10.90 million per married couple). Trump's comments about the minimum wage have been inconsistent11 he has said that a low minimum wage is good; that the minimum wage should not be raised; that the minimum wage should be raised; that he'd like an increase, but the states should do the increasing; that he is against any federal minimum wage floor; and that that he is in favour of a $10 federal minimum wage, but "let the states make the deal".
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While the GOP worries a bout convention chaos, Trump pushes for 'showbiz' feel, The Wa shington Post (April 17, 2016) 10 James Oliphant & Luciana Lopez, Some Hispanic Republicans fear for party's future if Trump wins in Florida, Reuters (March 11, 2016). 11 Haberman, Maggie (February 12, 2016). "Jeb Bush Supporters Run Brutal Ad Against Donald Trump". The New York Times. February 14, 2016.
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Trump identifies as a "free trader", but says that trade must be "reasonably fair". He has often been referred to as "protectionist". He says NAFTA has been "a disaster" and would as president either renegotiate or break the NAFTA agreement. He opposes the proposed TransPacific Partnership (TPP). Trump proposes to raise tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States by 45%, and has raised the idea of placing 35% tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States. Trump has called the World Trade Organization (WTO) a "disaster", and favors renegotiating or leaving the WTO unless it allows his proposed tariff increases Healthcare, education and environment
Trump favors repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare") with a different free-market plan that would allow health insurance to be sold across state lines, enable individuals to deduct health insurance premiums, expand health savings accounts, and give more control of Medicaid to the states. He has voiced support for a single-payer healthcare system in the past, but distanced himself from the idea during his 2016 campaign. Trump favors getting rid of backlogs and waitlists that are the focus of the Veterans Health Administration scandal, and believes that Veterans Affairs facilities need to be upgraded. Trump has stated his support for school choice and local control for primary and secondary schools. He opposes the Common Core State Standards Initiative for primary and secondary schools, and has called Common Core "a disaster" that must be ended12. He has stated he would abolish all or part of the Department of Education. Trump rejects the scientific consensus on climate change, repeatedly contending that global warming is a "hoax." Trump has said that the EPA is a "disgrace" and has promised to cut its budget. He has pledged to "cancel the Paris Climate Agreement", which calls for reductions in carbon emissions in more than 170 countries, claiming it treats the United States unfairly and gives favourable treatment to countries like China. Foreign policy
Trump has been described as non-interventionist and nationalist. He supports increasing U.S. military defence spending, but favors decreasing U.S. spending on NATO and in the Pacific region. He says America should look inward, stop "nation building", and re-orient its resources toward domestic needs. He questions whether he, as president, would automatically extend security guarantees to NATO members, and suggests that he might leave NATO unless changes are made to the alliance. Trump has called for Japan to pay for the costs of American troops stationed there and that it might need to develop nuclear weapons in order to protect itself from North Korea. In terms of confronting ISIS, Trump called for sending 20,000 to 30,000 US troops to the region, a position he retracted. He has since argued that regional allies of the US, such as Saudi Arabia should provide troops in the fight. He also believes that oil fields in ISIS-controlled areas should be bombed. He supports expanded use of aggressive interrogation techniques, including waterboarding "and a hell of a lot worse", with terrorists. Trump would as president dismantle the international nuclear agreement with 12
Valerie Strauss, Donald Trump is wrong about Common Core — but he's not the only ca ndidate who is, Washington Post (March 4, 2016).
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Iran. Regarding the Israeli – Palestinian conflict, Trump has stated the importance of being a neutral party during potential negotiations, while also having stated that he is "a big fan of Israel." He supports Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank. Trump would consider recognizing Crimea as Russian territory and lifting sanctions on Russia. He added that Russia could help the United States in fighting ISIS militants. In the same interview, Trump stated that he hoped Russia would unearth Hillary Clinton's missing emails from her time as Secretary of State, saying: "Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing." the next day, Trump stated that his comment was sarcastic. Immigration policies
Trump's immigration policies have been among his most highly-discussed policies during the campaign. Some of his proposals have come under scrutiny by several experts on immigration who question the effectiveness and affordability of his plans. Trump vows to build a substantial wall on the Mexico – United States border to keep out illegal immigrants, a wall which Trump promises Mexico will pay for 13. Trump would also create a "deportation force" to deport around 11 million people illegally residing in the U.S., stating "Day 1 of my presidency, [illegal immigrants] are getting out and getting out fast." Trump opposes birth right citizenship. One of Trump's most controversial proposals was a "total and complete", but temporary, ban on foreign Muslims entering the United States. Pollsters have found that support for the proposal depends upon whether the pollsters say that the ban would only last "until the federal government improves its ability to screen out potential terrorists from coming here". Trump later offered an "expansion" to his position by stating that the temporary ban would apply to people originating from countries with a "proven history of terrorism against the United States or its allies", or countries "compromised by terrorism". Trump insisted that the new proposal was not a "rollback" of his initial proposal to ban all Muslim immigrants. He said, "In fact, you could say it's an expansion. I'm looking now at territory." He has stated that the ban could apply to countries compromised by terrorism, such as France, Germany and Spain.
EVALUATION Positives
They are showing up in droves to see Donald Trump: Men and women, overwhelmingly white, frustrated with the country's first black president, fearful that they are being displaced by minorities and immigrants, and nostalgic for the way America used to be. And Trump is thriving, tapping into the fears and anxieties that have erupted into the open in an extraordinary presidential campaign.
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"Immigration reform that will make America great again". Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. July 6, 2015.
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The voters pledging their allegiance to the Republican front-runner hail from all corners of the country. They work on farms, in nursing homes and run small businesses; they've voted for Mitt Romney and Barack Obama and participated in the tea party movement; they are high school students who will vote for the first time this November and retirees and veterans who came of age during World War II. In Trump, these people see the next president of the United States. One of the reasons is that he is not your ordinary politician. His ideas – e.g., a sound immigration policy, returning manufacturing jobs to America, negotiating better trade deals – are not at all radical, but do go against the Washington status-quo. Trump is often wrong, but what matters is that he always sounds right. In politics, force of character can be as important as facts (which nobody can agree on anyway). Trump’s charisma, his confident and decisive air, forms a huge part of his appeal. Combine that supreme confidence with simple, intuitive answers that resonate with voters on a deep level. The result is a psychologically intoxicating mix. If you don’t like immigration, build a wall. If you’re suspicious of Muslims, track them in a database. If you support police officers, impose the death penalty on cop killers. These are thrilling ideas to many voters, especially when a candidate like Trump articulates them with such authority. Trump is not reliant on donors. This cannot be overstated enough. No one will own Trump. In complete contrast to every other politician, he owes no special interest group any favors. No large "behind-the-curtain" people can influence him. His popularity is also aggravated by the fact that a lot of people dislike immigrants. Trump supporters are particularly attracted to his views on immigration. He’s hugely popular among people without college degrees, who have been left behind by economic progress in recent years. Many of these people blame immigrants for their own poor prospects, since they compete for some of the same kinds of jobs. And it’s not just an economically -frustrated slice of America that is attracted to Trump’s ideas. Nearly half of registered GOP voters agree with him that undocumented immigrants should be deported, and that America should turn away refugees. Many Americans are deeply frightened by the recent spate of terrorist attacks around the world and wonder whether Obama is doing enough to keep the country safe. Trump's explosive proposals to increase surveillance of mosques, keep a database of MuslimAmericans and enforce a temporary "ban" on Muslims entering the country have energized his supporters. Also People are sick of the political establishment. The more Trump is criticized, the more popular he seems to get. Trump has positioned himself as the anti-elite candidate, which to some voters has made him more or less immune to criticism from the mainstream parties or the mainstream media. When the press slams him for saying shocking (and often untrue) things, that only heightens the us vs. them dynamic. There is a very palpable anger at President Obama. Many Trump supporters say he can't be trusted, he cares more about the welfare of black people than whites and he's inflamed racial divisions in the country. Others say they're convinced that he's Muslim.
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There have always been anti-establishment presidential contenders, of course. The fact that Trump been so singularly successful perhaps has less to do with him and more to do with this political moment. From the Tea Party surge in 2010 to the present you can trace an arc of mounting impatience among voters in part of the GOP. That pent-up frustration may be finding its moment — and its voice — right now, in Donald Trump. Trump has mesmerized voters. People say they have never seen a presidential candidate like Trump: He's unfiltered; he's anti-establishment; he exudes confidence and strength; he's not a politician. People are tired of political correctness degrading the quality of our lives by forcing people to accept behavior that most people find objectionable. Some say that Trump brings back the Reagan coalition. It wasn’t that long ago that people used to salivate over the 1980s Reagan coalition of blue-collar Democrats and white-collar Republicans. Trump has that kind of appeal. This is why his message resonates across the political spectrum and why many Americans are supporting him. If the Republican Party is serious about a “big tent” philosophy, Trump is their guy. Most conservatives vote Republican because they lack real alternatives. It is better, they think, to hold their nose and pull the lever for Mitt Romney than vote for Barack Obama. This hasn’t worked, and American knows it. Trump represents real America, what Glenn Beck recently derided as the “bubba effect,” and real America is ready to kick the establishment to the curb. They want jobs, security, and someone who isn’t afraid to stand up to the cultural Marxism of the establishment, both Left and Right. Reagan would agree. Many Americans are impressed by trump’s economic policies. Trump has developed a tax policy14 that would reduce the top tax rate from 39.6 to 25 percent at the same time increasing the standard deduction to $25K for single and $50K for married filers. He would drop the corporate tax rate from 35 to 15 percent with a 10 percent rate for repatriation of funds. He recognizes actual economics not emotion-driven economics. He wants a flat tax in order to keep the wealth of America in the People, not the government. Trump doesn’t try to doop us like everybody else with emotion-driven speech. He is honest on how nothing good ever came from providing free stuff, because we end up paying more for the free stuff, since the government spends our taxes on things unrelated to their initial purpose15. This is why Trump plans on downsizing the Government. The other big plank of Trump’s economic plan c enters on trade. He’s railed against trade deals that he says have been weak and have cost American jobs. The evidence backs up this point: one study found that the U.S. lost about 2 million jobs to trade competition with China between 1999 and 2011, or 10 percent of all job losses in manufacturing. Another found that employment and wages in American communities hit hard by competition with China remained depressed for at least a decade. He’s promised to levy huge tariffs on imports to supposedly give domestic industries a boost, either targeting specific countries like China or Mexico or individual companies that say they’re going to move jobs overseas. He promises to go after China for manipulating its currency, artificially bringing it lower than the dollar and thereby making its own goods cheaper than ones made 14
Jim Nunns, Len Burman, Jeff Rohaly & Joe Rosenberg, An Analysis of Donald Trump's Tax Pl an, Tax Policy Center (Urban Institute/Brookings Institution) (December 22, 2015). 15 "A closer look at Donald Trump's comments about refinancing U.S. debt". PolitiFact.
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here. And he’s promised to toss and renegotiate trade agreements like NAFTA or the Trans Pacific Partnership16.
Some economists think these actions, if done the right way, could have a positive impact. Tariffs could be imposed temporarily as a way to bring China to the negotiating table over currency manipulation and other harmful trade policies. Trump has stated on a number of occasions that if elected president, he "would increase [spending] on the military."17 Trump claims that the U.S. military will be "funded beautifully" if elected President. While Trump has not offered specifics on defence spending under a Trump presidency, he has repeatedly called for a U.S. military build-up and has criticized President Obama's military spending strategy. Trump has criticized the decline in the numbers of active-duty armed forces, Navy ships and Air Force planes since the end of the Cold War. Trump has pledged to rein in wasteful spending in the military. Negatives
Barack Obama says Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, is “unfit to serve as president.” Many believe that he Inspires and motivates others to hate, and speak freely about it. or some Americans, Trump is the motivational mouthpiece for all the prejudicial things they've wanted to say, but didn't dare. He didn't create racism or even wake it up. But he gave it permission to come out of the closet, to be shouted and applauded, en masse. His voice is that of an authoritarian leader, and the voices he courts are the angry operatic mob, carrying pitchforks and brimming with malice. Also many are of the opinion that he Solves Problems and analyses issues in a vacuum. When you don't care about facts -- and Trump rarely does unless they benefit him -- you don't need them to make assessments or solve problems. Take the Egypt air crash. Within hours he was tweeting that it was a terrorist attack. Maybe so. But it's dangerous for someone in his position to make such a major assumption without the facts. True leaders know when to speak, and when to wait for evidence to analyze and assess a situation. At a campaign stop in Wilmington, North Carolina on August 9, Donald Trump said that Hillary Clinton wants to "essentially abolish the Second Amendment." He said if she nominates judges to the Supreme Court, there would be nothing that could be done about it, and then added, "Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is. I don't know." Trump has openly said he’ll force troops to break the law: When you have a man who publicly says during a debate that he’s going to force troops to obey his illegal orders to murder civilian women and children, it should disqualify him from the presidency. Thus the question arises whether you really want to trust someone in the White House who has that kind of mentality? Someone who thinks that where our military is concerned, his word should be law no matter what he orders them to do in America or overseas? That’s a dictator’s mentality and as a people who live in a Constitutional Republic, it’s not something they would be willing to tolerate in a President 16
Charles Lane, Donald Trump's contempt for the free market, Washington Post (October 21, 2015). Robert Farley (May 11, 2016). "Trump's 'Made in the USA' Spin". FactCheck.org. Annenberg Public Policy Center. 17
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Trump encourages violence: Everyone across the political spectrum should condemn political violence committed by unions, and Donald Trump’s sup porters. When Donald Trump talks about how he’d like to punch a protester in the face and publicly, on more than one occasion, has talked about paying the bail of people who assault liberal activists at his rallies, he’s in effect giving a thumb’s up to vi olent behaviour. Couple that with Trump and his henchman Roger Stone’s subtle threats of violence if he loses at the convention and it’s no wonder that you’re seeing assaults at his rallies and regular death threats against people who oppose him. Among many others, Liz Mair, Erick Erickson, Sierra Marlee, Michelle Fields, Dana Loesch and Bethany Mandel, along with numerous convention delegates have received serious threats. He also can’t be trusted with nuclear weapons. Donald Trump is very casual in his attitude about the use of nuclear weapons18. He’s refused to rule out using tactical nuclear weapons against ISIS. He made it clear he’s fine with Japan and South Korea going nuclear . When you’re talking about a vindictive and insulting person with poor judgment who doesn’t do apologies and who apparently doesn’t see using nuclear weapons as a big deal, it’s a recipe for a potential nuclear war. It's almost impossible to know where he stands on any issue: Trump is like a used car salesman who's quitting his job tomorrow and will tell you anything you want to get you to sign on the dotted line. You want a Muslim ban? Trump will provide it. How? No idea. Do you like Planned Parenthood? Good, Trump thinks they do great work. Oh, you hate Planned Parenthood? Well, he’s going to cut off their funding because they’re bad. His signature issue is illegal immigration and yet, three years ago, he had the exact opposite position that he does today. Which position represents how he really feels? Who knows? Trump also says he’s going to erase our $19 trillion dollars in debt in 8 years just by cutting better trade deals. This is a man who lies constantly, switches positions on the issues day to day and has changed political parties 5 times in his life. Develops others into a xenophobic frenzy he develops others into his mouthpieces -- the "build that wall" chant is one of his great unifying achievements on the campaign trail. After the Orlando shooting, the now-familiar Trump routine was on full display. He immediately connected the attacks to Islam in general, and triumphantly claimed it proved the need for his proposed (wildly unconstitutional) ban on Muslim immigration to the U.S. Later, he suggested that President Obama himself may have conspired with the shooter. He was criticized by the parents of a Muslim soldier killed in Iraq and responded that they were really upset because he plans to keep Islamic terrorists out of the country — “I think that’s what bothered Mr. Khan,” Trump insisted. These are the parents of a fallen American soldier, and Trump accuses them of being enablers of Islamic terrorism based on the fact that they have criticized him. Trump later showed off a Purple Heart medal someone gave him, saying he’d “always wanted to get the Purple Heart” and that t his method was “much easier” than, say, earning one in combat. Trump, a draft -dodger whose disabling bone spurs seem to have disappeared (mirabile dictu) once bragged that evading sexually transmitted diseases over the course of what he promises has been a somewhat exotic sex life was his “own personal Vietnam,” so perhaps he believes he earned that Purple Heart at the Battle of Poontang. Somewhere in the midst of all that, he assured us that he had good reason
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"Donald Trump won't take nuclear weapons off the table". MSNBC.
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to believe the Russians would never invade Ukraine, which they did in 2014, annexing Crimea. Even his image as an enormously successful businessman is an outright fraud. Trump puffs himself up as a great investor and real estate developer, but in reality he's an economic parasite in the Jay Gould mold. As economist J.W. Mason explains, most of Trump's riches were created via a simple three-step formula: 1. Borrow tons of money, 2. Invest during a real estate bubble, and 3. Cash out the accumulated equity as it builds up. All Trump's various bankruptcies and financial wreckage left behind were not the incidental result of the occasional investment gone wrong, they were key to his business model19. He funneled the equity into his own pockets, while loading the debt onto various corporations and investment vehicles — who then took most of the bankruptcy damage. Aside from xenophobia and racism, this is pretty much all Trump knows. Now, superdetailed policy knowledge isn't the most important thing in politics; parties and campaigns have experts for that. But Trump evinces a total disregard for all policy, history, and facts in general, including what he said years (or five minutes) ago. He's the walking id of the gutter of American politics: Whatever bad things are happening, it's a minority's fault somehow20. HILIARY CLINTON (Democrat) Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton is an American politician and the nominee of the Democratic Party for President of the United States in the 2016 election. She served as the 67th United States Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013, the junior United States Senator representing New York from 2001 to 2009, First Lady of the United States during the presidency of Bill Clinton from 1993 to 2001, and First Lady of Arkansas during his governorship from 1979 to 1981 and from 1983 to 1992. As First Lady of the United States, Clinton led the unsuccessful effort to enact the Clinton health care plan of 1993. In 1997 and 1999, she helped create the State Children's Health Insurance Program. She also tackled the problems of adoption and family safety and foster care. Clinton received the most votes and primary delegates in the 2016 Democratic primaries, formally accepting her party's nomination for President of the United States on July 28, 2016, with vice presidential running mate, Senator Tim Kaine. She became the first female candidate to be nominated for president by a major U.S. political party. As part of her 2016 platform, she has emphasized raising incomes, improvements to the Affordable Care Act and reform of campaign finance and Wall Street. She favors allowing pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, expanding and protecting LGBT and women's rights, and instituting family support through paid parental leave and universal preschool. Political position
In her 1996 book It Takes a Village, Clinton writes, "Most of us would describe ourselves as 'middle of the road' — liberal in some areas, conservative in others, moderate in most, neither 19
Paredes Martín (August 6, 2015). "Donald Trump is a Failed Businessman" Johnson, Jenna (December 7, 2015). "Trump cal ls for 'total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States;". Washington Post. 20
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exclusively pro- nor anti-government."21 Clinton has stated that she prefers the term "progressive" to "liberal", explaing that "Unfortunately, in the last 30, 40 years, [the word ‘liberal’ has been turned up on its head and it’s been made to seem as though it is a word that describes big government, totally contrary to what its meaning was in the 19th and early 20th century. I prefer the word ‘progressive,’ which has a real American meaning, going back to the Progressive Era at the beginning of the 20th century." When asked by Anderson Cooper in October 2015 how she reconciles being both a progressive and moderate, "Do you change your political identity based on who you’re talking to? Just for the record, are you a progressive or a moderate?", Hillary answered "I’m a progressive. But I'm a progressive who likes to get things done. And I know how to find common ground, and I know how to stand my ground, and I have proved that in every position that I've had, even dealing with Republicans who never had a good word to say about me, honestly. Economic policy
In March 2016, Clinton laid out a detailed economic plan, which The New York Times called "optimistic" and "wide-ranging".22 Basing her economic philosophy on inclusive capitalism, Clinton proposed a "clawback" which would rescind tax relief and other benefits for companies that move jobs overseas; providing incentives for companies that share profits with employees, communities and the environment, rather than focusing on short-term profits to increase stock value and rewarding shareholders; increasing collective bargaining rights; and placing an "exit tax" on companies that move their headquarters out of America in order to pay a lower tax rate overseas. Clinton 'opposes' (though previously supported) the TransPacific Partnership (TPP), supports the U.S. Export-Import Bank, and holds that "any trade deal has to produce jobs and raise wages and increase prosperity and protect our security". As Senator (2001-2009), her record on trade was mixed, voting in favour of some trade agreements but not others. Clinton accepts the scientific consensus on climate change supports cap-and-trade, and opposes the Keystone XL pipeline. Social issues
She supports equal pay for equal work, to address current shortfalls in how much women are paid to do the same jobs men do. Clinton has explicitly focused on family issues and supports universal preschool. Clinton supports the Affordable Care Act and would add a "public option" which would compete against private insurers and enable people "50 or 55 and up" to buy into Medicare.23 On LGBT rights, she supports the right to same-sex marriage. Clinton first expressed support for a national right to same-sex marriage in 2013; in 2000, she had been against such unions altogether, and in 2006, she said only that she would support a state's decision to permit same-sex marriages.
21
Clinton, Hillary Rodham (2006-12-26). It Takes a Village. Simon and Schuster. p. 286 Chozick, Amy (March 4, 2016). "Clinton Offers Economic Plan Focused on Jobs". The New York Times. 23 "Hillary Clinton: Equal pay, problem-solving would be top priorities". CBS News. February 24, 2015. 22
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Foreign policy and Immigration
Clinton holds that allowing undocumented immigrants to have a path to citizenship "[i]s at its heart a family issue," and has expressed support for Obama's Deferred Action for Parental Accountability (DAPA) program, which would allow up to five million undocumented immigrants to gain deferral of deportation and authorization to legally work in the United States.24 Clinton has expressed support for Common Core. She says, "The really unfortunate argument that's been going on around Common Core, it's very painful because the Common Core started off as a bipartisan effort. It was actually nonpartisan. It wasn't politicized.... Iowa has had a testing system based on a core curriculum for a really long time. And [speaking to Iowans] you see the value of it, you understand why that helps you organize your whole education system. And a lot of states unfortunately haven't had that, and so don't understand the value of a core, in this sense a Common Core." On foreign affairs, Clinton voted in October 2002 in favour of the Authorization for Use of Military Force against Iraq, a vote she later 'regretted'. She favoured arming Syria's rebel fighters in 2012 and has called for the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. She supported the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 and the NATO-led military intervention in Libya to oust former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.25 Clinton is in favour of maintaining American influence in the Middle East. She opposes and criticized Trump's call to ban Muslims from the United States. She told the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, "America can't ever be neutral when it comes to Israel's security and survival."
Evaluation Positives
Hillary Clinton is a political insider who is not going to shake things up. She has proven to be at least a competent administrator who held the Secretary of State Job without screwing it up. Politically, she is a third way Democrat and member of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. Like most successful politicians, she looks out for her own political self-interest and that means appeasing the powerful. She also genuinely believes in the effectiveness of capitalism far more than ordinary Americans do. Some of the things which work in her favour are: "A progressive who gets things done " - This is the current slogan that her campaign has been pushing and it refers to the attributes of her's that are often praised: experienced pragmatism. While one would argue that the policies she "gets done" are the furthest thing from progressive (i.e. deregulation of Wall Street, continuing and promoting our interventionist foreign policy as both a senator and as the Secretary of State, promoting 24
Elise Foley, Hillary Clinton Promises Deportation Relief, Despite Supreme Court Ruling, Huffington Post (July 14, 2016) 25 "Clinton unlikely to change course on intervention". Chicago Tribune. July 26, 2007.
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fracking throughout the world, campaign donations from the very people she promises to regulate) it's a check that is often put in her column. Its possible, that while she may not be the ideal candidate for someone who identifies as some variant of a leftist (centre-left, progressive, liberal), this would probably be a better alternative to whatever the Republican candidates have to offer. She comes already willing to cede territory over to the Republicans, who in return will give absolutely nothing. But she is unlikely to cause any major damage to the country or the world. "A continuation of Obama's legacy " - Clinton has stated this several times throughout her rallies and debates. Whether or not this a quality you want in a president's approach to governance depends on, quite obviously, how you feel about President Obama and what he has accomplished thus far in his presidency. As with any president, there are some good and some bad. If you're a leftist/progressive there are probably numerous instances where he has let you down (an overly complex and massively compromised healthcare plan that didn't really accomplish a whole lot, mass deportation, enhanced surveillance state, interventionist and aimless foreign policy especially in regards to the Middle East, enhanced crackdown on legal marijuana rather than making progress towards ending the Drug War, no substantive regulation of Wall Street, very little attention to student debt, etc.) However, there are some good things he has done as president, namely stabilizing the economy after the greatest financial downturn since the Great Depression (thanks to "Dub-yah"), ending the Iraq War (although we're potentially going to get involved in more of them), bettering foreign relations with Western Europe, Latin America, and Asia, making some progress towards addressing climate change, negotiating the Iran nuclear deal (which Clinton laid the ground work for as Sec.). It's been a mixed record and the areas he has been disappointing on are not likely to see any major improvements under Clinton. If anyone has been satisfied with the last eight years this is another check in Clinton's box because it's what you're going to get in a third term, warts and all. Trump is scary" - This appears to be the biggest reason why many are saying they'll vote for her even though they likely wouldn't under different circumstances and with better options. This is not an invalid concern; Donald Trump is scary. Trump is advocating for policies that range from unconstitutional and inhumane to blatantly idiotic and bigoted. He has the potential to wreak havoc, especially since the House is likely to remain Republican controlled and there will likely be another Supreme Court appointment to make in the near future.
Despite what Republicans say, she is not a radical and she will not shake anything up. She will provide sensible leadership that will cater to the powerful interests. She is likely to leave America much as she found it. On foreign relations, she will be a hawk , although a more reserved hawk than George W. Bush. She will use the US's military strength to maintain and expand US imperialism. She will do so without getting the US into any major entanglements that over-stress the military. She will support Israel, no matter what Israel does, and she will basically have an anti-Arab foreign policy. She will label all that challenge American power as terrorists. She will be a bit more aggressive than Obama, because she feels she has something to prove as a woman. 21
On economic affairs, she will promote the interests of large corporations and the rich, while giving it a populist, for-the-people face . She is likely to make token reforms that help working class Americans. She will do so primarily because the imbalances are growing unsustainably great. She will relieve the pressure enough to maintain a sustainable inequality. But she will still do favors for powerful interests that support her and generally support the elite. She will make token reforms such as more paid time off for mothers and things like that. She will promote "free trade" agreements which are terribly unpopular with the people but very popular with the rich. She will make environmental protections a little stronger, but won't do anything to hurt the fossil fuel industry. On social issues she will follow the polls . America is slowly becoming more socially progressive. She will follow with America, slowly and cautiously following the popular positions on things like gay rights and gun control. If there is one area she might make real change, it will be gun control. She will be a reliable supporter of gay rights, but they probably won't need much new legislation between 2017 and 2025. She will not roll back the war on drugs. That is an economic and foreign policy issue, so she will keep it the same and endorse the interests of the powerful. Clinton is a rational self-interested player . (Which is not a great criticism because most politicians are self-interested.) She is an elitist. She has an ideological bent in which she believes that the super-rich and corporate executives are basically better than regular people. She believes they make better decisions are more responsible. She believes such people should lead America and she will facilitate them doing so. She will make some reforms though. At this point, the top 10% of the population controls more than 70% of the wealth and this imbalance is not sustainable. So she will largely be a status quo leader who corrects what she sees as minor problems that can eventually hurt her poll numbers. Negatives
However there is no denying of the fact that Hillary Clinton has some flaws as well which can be summed up in the following way: Benghazi. There is perhaps no bigger scandal than the one which occurred during Mrs Clinton’s time as Secretary of State. On September 11, 2012, Islamic radicals attacked the American embassy in Benghazi, Libya, killing Ambassador Christopher Stevens and Foreign Service Information Management Officer Sean Smith. Stevens was the first US Ambassador killed on duty since 1979. Hours later, a second assault killed two CIA contractors. Requests for more security had been made by the American representatives in Libya to the Clinton State Department for months prior, but they were ignored26. Too hawkish: Its interesting enough to know that any candidate who could survive to win the Presidency in this country will be more conservative on most matters than people are. But many are particularly troubled by her relatively hawkish view of the on-going Middle East
26
Labott, Elise (October 16, 2012). "Clinton: I'm responsible for diplomats' security". CNN
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crisis. She favoured the Cuban embargo in 2000, before opposing it in 2014, and voted for the Iraq War in 2002 before campaigning against it (and refusing to admit her vote) in 2008. Scandals: In her decades in the limelight, Mrs Clinton has found herself involved in a number of scandals. In the infamous White-water Controversy, she and her husband were found to be involved in some suspect real estate investments during their time in a failed business venture. Mrs Clinton was also implicated in the Travel gate scandal, which alleged that the Clintons had fired White House Travel Staff employees so that some of the Clintons’ friends could take their places. While President Clinton was exonerated of any wrongdoing, Mrs Clinton was found to have played a central role in the firings and made false statements about the matter. Mrs Clinton was also involved in the File gate scandal, which alleged that she had requested and read top-secret FBI background checks for political purposes. A controversy arose in March 2015, when it was revealed by the State Department's inspector general that Clinton had exclusively used personal email accounts on a non-government, privately maintained server — in lieu of email accounts maintained on federal government servers — when conducting official business during her tenure as Secretary of State27. Some experts, officials, members of Congress, and political opponents, contended that her use of private messaging system software and a private server violated State Department protocols and procedures, and federal laws and regulations governing recordkeeping requirements. The controversy occurred against the backdrop of Clinton's 2016 presidential election campaign and hearings held by the House Select Committee on Benghazi. Bill baggage: Regardless of what Hillary does, she will still bear the baggage carried by her husband over the various flaps that occurred during his presidency. Any ex-President is going to have enemies, but Bill seems to have more than most. Chronic Liar: Clinton infamously claimed in 2008 that she landed under “sniper fire” in Bosnia, which was refuted by video evidence of the incident. However, that is not the first time that Clinton has been caught telling untruths. In 1995, she claimed that she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the first person to reach Mount Everest’s summit. However, he did not do so until 6 years after Clinton was born, making it unlikely that her mother would be familiar with him at the time.
Additionally, Jerry Zeifman, counsel and chief of staff of the House Judiciary Committee, claims that during her work on Watergate, Clinton wrote a fraudulent legal brief and confiscated public documents in order to prevent from Nixon from being impeached so that Ted Kennedy would have a chance to win the presidency in 1976. Anti-Civil liberties: Clinton voted for the USA PATRIOT Act in 2001. As Secretary of State, she justified NSA spying by stating that it helps to protect the US from terrorist attacks. She said she was “puzzled” and found it “odd” that Edward Snowden fled the country, and implied that she thought that he was attempting to assist China and Russia with his revelations about the NSA program. She also opposed the release of documents by 27
Schmidt, Michael S.; Chozick, Amy (March 3, 2015). "Using Private Email, Hillary Clinton Thwarted Record Requests". The New York Times.
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WikiLeaks in 2010 and has in the past supported making flag-burning illegal. In 2005, she introduced the Flag Protection Act, which would have called for a $100,000 fine and 1-year sentence in jail for the offense.
CHAPTER 7 : CONCLUSION The 2016 US elections mark a new stage in the deep and protracted crisis of American democracy. Political parties that have been in existence for well over a century and a half are breaking apart. New political alignments are emerging, and an extremely dangerous type of politics, in gestation for an extended period of time, is erupting to the surface. The partisan coalitions that defined the Democratic and Republican parties for decades in the middle of the twentieth century broke apart long ago; over the past half century, their component voting blocs — ideological, demographic, economic, geographic, and cultural — have reshuffled. The reassembling of new Democratic and Republican coalitions is nearly finished. What we’re seeing this year is the beginning of a policy realignment, when those new partisan coalitions decide which ideas and beliefs they stand for — when, in essence, the party platforms catch up to the shift in party voters that has already happened. The type of conservatism long championed by the Republican Party was destined to fall as soon as a candidate came along who could rally its voters without being beholden to its donors, experts and pundits. The future is being built before our eyes, with far-reaching consequences for every facet of American politics. Whether or not he wins in November, Trump is creating the basis for a fascistic and nationalist movement, focused on attacks on immigrants, anti-Islamic hysteria, calls for “law and order” and demands for an end to all constraints on the police and military. This movement will persist after the elections, with Trump or some other demagogue at its head. In this connection, it is significant that Trump is increasingly raising the charge that the elections are rigged in favour of Clinton and the Democrats, with the clear implication that a Clinton presidency will be illegitimate from the start. In the final analysis, Trump speaks for a section of the ruling class that is well aware of the crisis of its economic and political system, and the growth of social opposition, and is preparing more authoritarian and violent methods of rule. Trump represents a serious danger for the working class. However, his ability to gain a hearing among certain oppressed sections of the population is due above all to the bankrupt and reactionary character of what passes for “left” politics in the United States. Trump’s denunciations of “crooked Hillary,” his attacks on the media, his broadsides against the “political correctness” of the liberal elite are meant to tap into a deep well of hostility to the Democratic Party, magnified after seven and a half years of the Obama administration. However Clinton presidency would represent an alliance between Wall Street and corporate America, the military-intelligence apparatus, and the upper-middle class layers that adhere to the Democratic Party on the basis of the politics of race, gender and sexual identity. The focus of a Clinton administration would be a vast expansion of US military interventions, 24
particularly in the Middle East and against Russia, as well as an intensification of the Obama administration’s anti-Chinese “pivot to Asia.” The Democrats and the media are seeking to turn the elections into a mandate for war, even as the vast implications for the population of the United States and the world are covered up. The Clinton campaign has centered its criticisms of Trump not on his fascistic policies, but on his alleged ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his unsuitability, for both political and psychological reasons, to serve as US commander in chief. The nature of the Clinton campaign — particularly in the unprecedented intervention of top intelligence and military officials — in its own way expresses the crisis of bourgeois democracy. The program she is preparing requires an escalation of the assault on the working class and a further dismantling of constitutional forms of rule beyond what has already been implemented by Bush and Obama. This election has seen the creep of racial anxiety. Way too much of this campaign seems to be about the fears of individual racial and religious groups -- and the candidates' failure to assuage them. The Democratic race has become a battle of out-group coalitions. The Republican race has featured grotesque rhetoric toward Muslim refugees, and that’s not even the most disturbing thing. There has always been dissent in politics. The constant threat of assault and battery, however, is new. And Trump’s tepid response to a phenomenon that only happens at his rallies -- “people are just passionate” -- normalizes this frightening trend. Whatever the outcome of the November election, the crisis of American democracy will intensify. The greatest danger facing working people is that they are not politically organized and they are not conscious of the tasks they confront. The presidential election campaign of the Socialist Equality Party is aimed precisely at developing the independent political organization and consciousness of the working class. The dangers before workers in the United States and internationally will not be resolved through tactical manoeuvres or wishful thinking. What is required is an uncompromising political struggle, based on the understanding that the political crisis is a reflection of the crisis of the entire capitalist system.
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BIBILIOGRAPHY Articles
1. http://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry/10-reasons-trump-should-never-be president_b_10103388 2. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/08/18/pers-a18.html 3. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/06/observer-view-uselections-donald-trump-hillary-clinton 4. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/07/donald-trump-whyamericans-support 5. http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/27/politics/donald-trump-voters-2016-election/ 6. http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/10/22/20-reasons-donald-trump2016/ 7. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/12/the-four-basic-reasonsthat-explain-why-donald-trump-actually-is-so-popular/ 8. http://www.euronews.com/2016/01/29/the-us-presidential-primaries-explained Websites
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
www.wikipedia.com www.politico.com www.politifact.com www.theguardian.com www.telegraph.co.uk www.newyorktimes.com www.reuters.com www.usatoday.com www.cnn/us.elections.com
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