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Analytics Exercise: Forecasting Supply Chain Demand Starbucks Corporation Questions: 1. Consider Consider using using a simple moving moving average model. model. Experiment Experiment with models models using using fve weeks and three weeks past data. The past data in each region are given below (week 1 is the week be!ore week 1 in the table" # is two weeks be!ore week 1" etc.$. Evaluate the !orecasts that would have been made over the 1% weeks using the overall (at the end o! the 1% weeks$ mean absolute deviation" mean absolute percent error and tracking signal as criteria. &nswer: WEE K &tla nta ,ost on Chic ago /alla s 0& *ota l
#. ext consider using a simple exponential smoothing model. 2n 3our anal3sis" test two alpha values" *.# and *.'. 4se the same criteria !or evaluating the model as part in part 1. 5hen using an alpha value o! *.#" assume that the !orecast !or week 1 is the past three week average (the average demand !or periods %" # and 1$. 6or the model using an alpha o! *.'" assume that the !orecast !or week 1 is the past fve week average. &nswer:
45 )0# to compute F* in " Weeks o.ing A.erage ethod 45 )0! to compute F* in Weeks o.ing A.erage ethod Foreca st Deman d" Weeks o.in g A.erag e
%. 7tarbuck is considering simpli!3ing the suppl3 chain !or its co8eemaker. 2nstead o! stocking the co8eemaker in all fve distributions centers" it is considering onl3 suppl3ing it !rom a single location. Evaluate this option b3 anal39ing how accurate the !orecast would be based on the demand aggregation across all regions. 4se the model that 3ou think is best !rom 3our anal3sis o! parts 1 and #. Evaluate 3our new !orecast using mean absolute deviation" mean absolute percent error and the tracking signal.
'. 5hat are the advantages and disadvantages o! aggregating demand !rom a !orecasting view &re there other things that should be considered when going !rom multiple /C;s to on /C &nswer: