Nielsen Insight Trends- Wapres FINAL.pdf

INDONESIA MARKET INSIGHTS . y r a t e i r p o r p d n a l a i t n e d i f n o C . y n a p m o C n e s l e i N e h T 7 1 0 2 © t h

PELAMBATAN PERTUMBUHAN RETAIL RET AIL FMCG INDONESIA I NDONESIA October 2017 Presented for Kementerian Sekretariat Negara RI Ernawati Associate Director The Nielsen Company Indonesia

Growth model Indonesia: Consumption + Investment

Confidential for Wapres

GDP CONTRIBUTION BY SECTOR

3

32 . y r a t e i r p o r p d n a l a i t n e d i f n o C . y n a p m o C n e s l e i N e h T 7 1 0 2 © t h

55

If consumption goes down, GDP growth will likely go down also

9

HH Consumption Investment Others

Gov. Spending Net Export/Import

The Sequence of Hits Form Economy Tsunami

. y r a t e i r p o r p d n a l a i t n e d i f n o C . y n a p m o C n e s l e i N e h T 7 1 0 2 © t h

Property

Vehicle

Lifestyle

FMCG

Commodity

Fast Moving Consumer Goods Has Been Growing Very Low 2.7% in YTD 2017 While Annual Average Was 11% 7.7%

Inflation 8.4% +10.5% . y r a t e i r p o r p d n a l a i t n e d i f n o C . y n a p m o C n e s l e i N e h T 7 1 0 2 © t h

+11.1%

Inflation 11% Inflation 17% + 17.7% + 13.8%

+ 11%

YTD 2.7%

+11.5%

14%

+9.6%

+ 4.7%

+ 21.1% + 15.2% + 14.3%

2 00 3 2 00 4 2 00 5 2 00 6 2 00 7 2 00 8 2 00 9 2 01 0 2 01 1 2 01 2 2 01 3

2 01 4 2 01 5

2 01 6 2 01 7

Lebaran 2017 Hanya Mencapai 5% Total Key Account | 75 Festive Categories

38,7 29,8 . y r a t e i r p o r p d n a l a i t n e d i f n o C . y n a p m o C n e s l e i N e h T 7 1 0 2 © t h

20,6 16,3

13,4 5,0

FEST 2012

FEST 2013

FEST 2014

FEST 2015

FEST 2016

FEST 2017

September growth is Higher than July & August Despite Much Lower Than Jan 2016 (13.6%) Total Indonesia Market | 55 Categories

R etail A udit 13,6 13,1 7,7

9,0

3,4 4,4

4,5 4,5

8,3 2,7 2,8 -0,1

5,3

8,1 5,0

Indonesia market average growth is 10%-11%

Unit Value Change 7,6 2,6 5,0

9,7 10,1 5,2 4,4

6,1 4,0

7,7 3,8 3,9

5,9 1,6 4,4

8,5 5,0 3,4

5,8 1,8 4,0

5,5 2,0 3,6

4,0 0,4 3,7

Volume Change 6,2

3,0 3,8 -0,8

2,3 3,9

2,9

2,6

3,2 2,8 -0,3 -0,2

Total Indonesia Modern Trade | 55 Categories

3,7 0,8 2,9

Nominal Growth 5,1 1,5 2,7 -1,2

2,7 2,5

3,8 -0,8 -0,7 1,7 2,3 -2,5 -3,0

1,4 2,4

MT average growth is 15%-18%

17,6 . y r a t e i r p o r p d n a l a i t n e d i f n o C . y n a p m o C n e s l e i N e h T 7 1 0 2 © t h

11,7

8,6

9,5

4,6 3,9

5,6

3,3

3,9

0,8 2,4

13,1 6,2

6,1

14,4 8,9 3,2

9,8 10,3

2,9

2,2 3,9

6,3

7,0

11,1

3,6

3,3

2,0

2,3 3,9

6,4

5,8

4,1 2,3

2,4 3,4

7,5 4,8 2,7

9,5 4,2 0,8 3,4

5,8 2,2 3,5

4,4 1,0 3,4

5,6 1,1 2,7 -1,6

3,2 2,5

Total Indonesia General Trade | 55 Categories 11,0 7,2 2,5 4,7

4,3

0,1 8,5

2,2 2,6 -0,4

6,6

7,7

8,4 3,1

6,3

5,3

9,5 4,4 5,1

4,6

1,3 2,3

5,1 1,5

8,2 1,3

-4,1 -0,1 -4,0

0,2 1,3

3,2 1,9

10,1

10,0 5,5

1,7 2,4

3,6

GT average growth is 6%-9%

14,0 8,6

4,1

3,8 4,0 -0,1

5,6 1,6 4,0

6,0 4,1

5,9 2,0 3,9

7,6 4,2

3,9

0,3 3,9

0,1 3,8

1,1 3,8 -2,7

3,5

4,1

4,3 0,9 3,4

3,4 0,7 2,6 -2,0

1,1 2,3

0,0

2,2 -2,2

1,6

2,2

2,1 -0,5

2,3 -0,1

2,8 2,3 -2,2 -4,5

0,9 2,0

Most Region is in Low Single Digit Weak Growth, Except Kalimantan (coal), South Sumatra (CPO) and Bali Nusra (tourism) R etail A udit

Indonesia Total Groceries | Total FMCG 55 Categories | YTD Sep ’16 vs YTD Sep ‘17

Indonesia 2.7%

N. Sumatra

Growth

Contribution

-1,9% . y r a t e i r p o r p d n a l a i t n e d i f n o C . y n a p m o C n e s l e i N e h T 7 1 0 2 © t h

4.9

Kalimantan 14.3%

C. Sumatra 3.2% 4.4

5.1

S. Sumatra

Sulawesi 5,0%

8,0%

Jakarta Greater

7.1

-2.3%

5.3

20.4

W. Java

6.1%

C. Java

E. Java

-0.1%

Bali Nusra

7.4%

. e t u b i r t s i d t o n o D . y r a t e i r p o r p d n a l a i t n e d i f n o C . C L L , ) S U (

y n a p m o C n e s l e i N

DRAINED MIDDLE LOW CLASS MID-LOW CLASS WEAKENING PURCHASE POWER

How Did They Lose Buying Power Take Home pay decrease ( Lembur, Trade, Commis s ion, S ervice, Other income)


Purchase Power Pressure

Salary may stay the same or increase single digit

Cost of living & expense increase (E lectricity, Food, S chool fee, etc)

Because expense is going up –

cont’d

Less Consumption on Instant Noodles, Powder Milk, Coffee and Beverages

Family Needs are Going Up • Children are getting bigger. Their needs are getting more • New family member is coming up.


• “the needs is increase, for meals, school, etc. The expenses are increase and need a bigger house .”

R etail Audit

Indonesia Total Groceries | Total FMCG 55 Categories | YTD Sep ‘17 -2,7

Instant Noodles

Value growth

-5,5 -1,5

Powder Milk

Volume Growth

-0,2 3,8

Coffee -1,5

8,0

Biscuit

7,6 13,4

Cooking Oil 3,4

Inflation – Price is Going Up • Shopping needs not only for immediate family, but also for parents. • Daily food shopping is now 50,000. If buying food from outside, it can cost up to 100,000

Tea-RTD Baby Diapers

Liquid Milk

• “2 years ago, I spend 30,000 for

4,3

Mineral water

-0,9 -4,9 -7,6 5,4 7,0 13,8 12,4

MAKING SNACK AT HOME TOO… (TO SAVE) Snacking is also made at home, more economical and healthy and hygiene too

R etail Audit

Indonesia Total Groceries | Total FMCG 55 Categories | YTD Sep ‘17 Seasoning Flour

28,1 20,7 13,8 12,4

Liquid Milk

13,5

Chilli Sauce 7,3

13,4

Cooking Oil . y r a t e i r p o r p d n a l a i t n e d i f n o C . y n a p m o C n e s l e i N e h T 7 1 0 2 © t h

3,4 Eye Drops

12,7 3,2 10,5 9,7

Soft Cake

What changed? • Not buying supper at night anymore Not buying snacks and beverages more • often • Bring food to office • Eating in shopping malls is only once a month

10,5 8,9

Dishwashing Liquid Bleaches

10,3 2,2 8,7

Gel Dessert RTD

6,4

Value growth Volume Growth

Consumer Shift to Sachet to Control / Lessen Volume Usage R etail Audit Indonesia Total Groceries | Total FMCG 55 Categories | YTD Sep ‘17

Change the packaging size / product format

5,0

Skincare -1,0

Value growth


• Buy sachet than the refill pack for detergent, softener, coffee, shampoo, SCM, due to easy to control • Pay attention on dosage now use the product wisely, using the spoon for dosage. E.g. for detergent

Snack

8,6

Volume Growth

3,4 1,2

Toilet Soap -2,0

Shampoo Detergent

-3,4 -2,6 -0,8 -1,8 2,2

Stock Soup -0,8

1,1

Cologne -3,3

4,3

Total Candies2 0,8

4,1

Toothpaste 0,9


Mid-Upper Class Solid Buying Power “Wait and See” Mid Upper Class

Spending in FNB chain grow 34% Based on Nielsen Food & Beverage Measurement, the F&B sector is still growing particularly for food counter

Growth . y r a t e i r p o r p d n a l a i t n e d i f n o C . y n a p m o C n e s l e i N e h T 7 1 0 2 © t h

41% 34%

Total

34%

28%

Fast Food

Food Counter

Restaurant

Ecommerce is click for

lifestyle (NOT G rocery-C ommodity)

Online Sales for Groceries in 2016 is Estimated to Reach 1.5 T Rupiah (Out of 450 T Nielsen 55 cat) If we compare to the offline sales, the top categories contribution in online sales only reached about 1 %


Market estimation of top categories est. less than 1%

2016-2017 Grocery Lost Growth IS NOT Because Online Nasional sales


Annual growth 2017 growth Lost Sales 2017 11% 2.7% 8.3% ____________________________________________________________________ 450 T

49 T

12 T

37 T

vs 1.5 T

Summary 

Tahun ini FMCG hingga September mengalami perlambatan pertumbuhan dimana growth hanya mencapai 2.7% sedangkan rata-rata pertumbuhan normal tahunan mencapai 11% Mid low class sebagai pemegang porsi yang besar mengalami perlambatan karena: menurunnya THP, kenaikan harga utility sehingga berdampak pada pengurangan konsumsi, menahan pembelian impulsife produk dan downsizing 




Upper class masih menunggu situasi dimana mereka hanya bertindak ‘wait and s ee’, namun ada indikasi dimana pengeluaran di lifestyle cenderung terus bertumbuh

Perlambatan pertumbuhan FMCG di tahun ini bukan semata-mata dipengaruhi langsung oleh bertumbuhnya e-commerce di Indonesia. Untuk core products FMCG Ecommerce hanya mencapai kurang lebih 1% dibandingkan dengan penjualan offline 


Nielsen Insight Trends- Wapres FINAL.pdf

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